The Big Question: Back of the Bullpen

[Ted Schwerzler]

There is a growing optimism that the Minnesota Twins bullpen could be one of the better units in the league. Plenty of that stems from the high-leverage portion of the group, but it could depend on how the depth in lower-leverage works.

Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the best starting rotations in all baseball. Rocco Baldelli would love to see this group replicate that, but Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober must step up behind Pablo Lopez to avoid a dropoff. Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are gone, so if the Twins are going to be among the best bullpens in baseball, they’ll need to supplement a starting rotation that has lost some of its depth.

The front office has never spent substantially on the bullpen, save for Addison Reed. That remains true this year, and the back-end group featuring Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar all come in with minimal salary considerations. Supplementing them this year is a group acquired through Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon's trades and shrewd free-agent pickups.

How well the secondary bullpen group performs is a two-fold look at situations. First, what can be expected in a more significant sample from Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, and Steven Okert? Topa was the veteran prize acquired from Seattle in exchange for Polanco. He’s 32 years old but isn’t a free agent until 2027. Before last season, he had just 18 1/3 innings pitched at the major league level and allowed 17 runs for Milwaukee during that exposure.

Blossoming into a force with Seattle last season, Topa threw 69 innings and owned a 2.61 ERA. His 3.15 FIP wasn’t far off, and his 8.0 K/9 was more than serviceable. He allowed only 2.3 BB/9 and gave up just four home runs. Suppose Topa can replicate that success for Minnesota or even take another step forward. In that case, he will be a direct replacement for the 2023 version of Emilio Pagan and will provide Baldelli with a high-level option earlier in games. Needing a bridge for starters like Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani, who could have innings limits, is the type of arm a bullpen needs.

Like Topa, Jackson is a late bloomer in that he’s 36 years old and has yet to hit arbitration. A 2008 draft pick, Jackson didn’t make the majors until 2015, then reappeared in 2019 before finally working 29 2/3 innings last season with the Blue Jays. Jackson posted a 2.12 ERA for Toronto in 2023, but his 4.20 FIP suggests some smoke and mirrors to that number.

Jackson put up similar strikeout and walk numbers to Topa, but he allowed home runs at twice the frequency. He’s not an exceptionally hard-throwing player, and there isn’t a reason to expect he’ll work deeper into the group's hierarchy. However, if Jackson can substantiate his 2023 performance, he would give depth options like Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk more time to hone in at the Triple-A level.

Speaking of a left-handed arm, the Twins did well to grab another pitcher from the Marlins when they sent out-of-options Nick Gordon to Miami. Steven Okert pairs with Thielbar as a relief southpaw, and Baldelli now has another option. The former Marlin has racked up strikeouts throughout his career, and despite the 4.45 ERA last season, he put up a 2.89 ERA the two seasons prior. Over the past three years, his FIP has remained over 4.00, and he gives up a good deal of dingers, but there’s a good arm here if he can keep the ball in the yard.

One of Minnesota's relief corps's most significant question marks may be former Kansas City Royals reliever Josh Staumont. He is no longer the fireballing high-leverage guy; he is also past the thoracic outlet surgery he underwent and has a clean bill of health. The hope would be that he can make a new arsenal work after having pitched injured for quite some time.

At his best in 2021, Staumont was a guy who struck out a ton of batters with a good amount of velocity. He has never allowed many home runs, but in the past two seasons, the command and control within the zone have escaped him. A new offering may be on the table this year, and, if his arm is healthy, then a new level of effectiveness could also be expected.

For as deep as the Twins rotation was a season ago, the bullpen could experience that depth this season, and Baldelli will have the opportunity to get creative when working matchups on a game-by-game basis.

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[ashbury]

There is usually a reason a 36-year old hasn't hit arbitration yet.  Late bloomer seems pretty low on the list of possibilities.  😊

[mikelink45]

This is a classic let's wait and see moment.  I am worn out by the hype and I will know if we hit success or have another first year Pagan or an over rated Lopez in the pen.  Who knows?

[Jocko87]

This is a crucial area and probably a pivot off not finding what they wanted in the starting market. I saw a Jomboy clip saying they were replacing 285 starter innings at a 3.03 era clip from last year (their math).

Probably 70 or 80 of those innings are coming out of this group and the volume approach speaks to that. Hot hand will rule.

[Parfigliano]

The "deathball" shall rule them all.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

This is a classic let's wait and see moment.  I am worn out by the hype and I will no if we hit success or have another first year Pagan or an over rated Lopez in the pen.  Who knows?

I get being somewhat skeptical about a couple of new guys. I don’t understand the questioning of the Pen overall though? Even if we never heard of Staumont - Topa - Okert - Jackson………there are at least 8 decent options in the system. These new 4 all being terrible isn’t very likely.  The added depth with these 4, to the guys the organization already had, seems to have been a good move to me.

[JD-TWINS]

58 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

This is a crucial area and probably a pivot off not finding what they wanted in the starting market. I saw a Jomboy clip saying they were replacing 285 starter innings at a 3.03 era clip from last year (their math).

Probably 70 or 80 of those innings are coming out of this group and the volume approach speaks to that. Hot hand will rule.

Gray was 180 innings plus with a 2.79 ERA……Maeda was 106 innings at around 4.25 ERA.

Seems the math is close on what Team is trying to replace. I’d like to focus on the Wins - Losses that have left the rotation. The Team ‘s Gray/Maeda combined record in their starts was around 21-26. Can Team go .500 in games started by the new starters? Am not really concerned about matching the combined ERA from last season.

We’ll see.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

This is a classic let's wait and see moment.  I am worn out by the hype and I will no if we hit success or have another first year Pagan or an over rated Lopez in the pen.  Who knows?

SEA didn't really care about Topa because they figured they could create another one, like we always did. We'd take our guys 1st then taking guys through signing minor league FAs & through the waiver wire & make good relievers out of them. Cheap & efficient way of meeting our needs. Topa wasn't cheap & now the new additions will have preference over our guys.

IMO Caterino will go the same route as Paddack & take the relief route to the MLB adding to our BP depth.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gray was 180 innings plus with a 2.79 ERA……Maeda was 106 innings at around 4.25 ERA.

Seems the math is close on what Team is trying to replace. I’d like to focus on the Wins - Losses that have left the rotation. The Team ‘s Gray/Maeda combined record in their starts was around 21-26. Can Team go .500 in games started by the new starters? Am not really concerned about matching the combined ERA from last season.

We’ll see.

Yeah, that's a good way to look at it.  A portion of the replacement will be a better offense and ideally this 70-80 innings will be fairly low leverage.  The equation changes in the postseason but getting there it should be fine.

[Fezig]

If Rocco let's the starters go six innings and beyond the BP strength is less of a concern.

[wabene]

2 hours ago, Fezig said:

If Rocco let's the starters go six innings and beyond the BP strength is less of a concern.

Baseball's back baby! 😂

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, Fezig said:

If Rocco let's the starters go six innings and beyond the BP strength is less of a concern.

The IP by the starters will probably depend on the starters themselves. I hope at least the top 3 can avg. around 6IP and then the pen can be worked in a way that the bottom 3 won't be so important. I don't have the confidence in the new guys yet, but so many are touting them as one of the best in the league. Too many with too few IP for me to have that much faith in.

[beckmt]

Don't forget Alcala, he could well make the club the way he looks and maybe one of the signees is either optioned or hits the road.  It is early yet. 

[mikelink45]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I get being somewhat skeptical about a couple of new guys. I don’t understand the questioning of the Pen overall though? Even if we never heard of Staumont - Topa - Okert - Jackson………there are at least 8 decent options in the system. These new 4 all being terrible isn’t very likely.  The added depth with these 4, to the guys the organization already had, seems to have been a good move to me.

Why not be skeptical?  This is a prove it sport.  And we have seen BPs implode as well as come out of nowhere to be great.  Remember how we had Cano and let him go, then Baltimore got him as an all-star.  How do we judge BP arms?  For me it is a matter of seeing them in action.

[chpettit19]

Bullpen could be great. Bullpen could be horrible. It's the nature of bullpen arms.

I have confidence that Duran will be really good. Confident Jax will be solid. The rest are typical bullpen question marks.

Thielbar is a question mark at his age and injuries starting to creep up more frequently. Topa is a question mark as a 33 year old with 1 good MLB season. Jackson is a question mark as a 36 year old with 1 good and 1 ok MLB seasons. Alcala is a question mark with his results against lefties and injury concerns. Funderburk is a question mark with his limited track record. Okert is a question mark as a 32 year old who took a step back last year. Stewart is a question mark as a 32 year old with major injury concerns and only 1 unsustainably great, brief MLB season. Staumont is a question mark with his injury concerns and his decline the last 2 years. Weiss is a question mark as a 32 year old with limited MLB time and success. 

They did well bringing in a lot of options. Gives them the best chance possible to find a handful of guys who are solid to great. That's a wonderful bullpen strategy. They'll give these guys the first half of the season to try to show they're worthy of stretch run and playoff innings. History tells us a number of these guys aren't going to be very good this year. But they've given themselves a number of shots at success and that's all they can really do. Predicting bullpen arm success is a fool's errand. Give yourself as many shots at the target as you can and hope a few hit.

[DocBauer]

I like to think I'm smart enough and have enough perspective on things to not get stuck on hype trains. Now, I can be a bit of an optimist. And I don't think it's climbing on board the hype train to be optimistic about this pen.

As has been pointed out already, it's really hard to predict any individual in a pen, or a pen at large, from year to year. A couple bad weeks can ruin a month, etc. But I like the depth of possibilities this current incarnation of the pen holds.

I honestly have no questions about Duran or Jax that you wouldn't have for any reliever. I believe in  Stewart a lot and even if he regresses some...he will...he's really good. But can he go 50-60 IP this year? Thielbar had a nice 2023 and threw as hard as ever, and was K-ing over 10  per inning.  He appears to still have some gas in the tank. He just needs to avoid nuisance injuries like pulled muscles, similar to last year.

I have faith in Topa because breakout season or not, we see it. Stewart was an example last year. And Topa did it for a lot of innings. I don't know that he's anything more than a really nice 6th-7th inning guy, but I'd take that in a heartbeat. Okert has been successful for a few years now, and was pretty good in 2023 as well, despite a higher ERA than before. (ERA is obviously not the best way to measure a pen arm). His whipping, almost side arm delivery adds deception to his stuff, and as long as he doesn't leave something straight and over the middle, his stuff is pretty nasty most of the time. If Staumont can regain even 90% of his previous form, what a great signing!

I can't say I have a lot of faith in Jay Jackson. He went to Japan to get his career going and his results, but even in relatively SSS, he was good in 2023. He's a complete flier. But he didn't cost anything but a minimum deal, so why not give him a shot and see?

I like Funderburk and I have strong hopes for Alcala. I haven't given up on the young Henriquez now that's fully transitioned to the pen, as long as he's healthy. (he fought injuries in 2023). And there's a chance the non-roster Duarte can help even as one of the last 2 arms in the pen. 

Of course, there are other options available to help and certainly don't have to run through all of them and all possibilities. But there is often strength in numbers to give you the most ammunition, the most possibilities to choose from. Who we have, and the numbers we have, fill me with optimism.

 

 

[gman]

I see that last man in the pen usually as the "break glass in case of emergency" guy. With Funderburk, Alcala and  possibly Canterino available, I see this 3rd inning guy as someone who could really stop an early game blowout.

[wabene]

Interesting little tidbit in Gleeman's article today; "Duran (No. 2) and Stewart (No. 7) are the AL’s best-projected bullpen duo, and the only other top-10 pairing is Josh Hader (No. 6) and Ryan Pressly (No. 9) of the Houston Astros. And while Hader and Pressly will be paid a combined $33 million this season, Duran and Stewart are minimum-salaried players making a combined $1.5 million."