2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster Projections: Finally Final

[Cris E]

This roster is a child of the calamitous 2022 season. The front office was scarred by that experience and builds conservatively to ensure it cannot happen again.  

That means making sure there are no holes. Santana is a floor guy, not a ceiling guy. He's there to ensure there's a competent glove and average bat on hand in case Kirilloff doesn't pan out. With good luck he fills the Solano seat and with bad luck he's Gallo. 

It's also relevant to point out that Rocco has flat out said Santana and Kirilloff are not necessarily sharing a spot, and that there will be days when one is at 1B and the other at DH. That's where Santana's clearly superior glove comes into play. Don't over simplify, and don't strive for clarity where there shouldn't be any.  Sometime there is just surplus and they work through it, like in the case of Solano last year. Between Farmer and Castro he wasn't even the second utility guy, but he played all over the place. Not everything fits into nice boxes. Relax and enjoy the games.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Karbo said:

After Gallo last year I am very cautious thinking about guys of yesteryear falling off a cliff.

Gallo had already fallen off the cliff. They spent $11M to see how high he would bounce at the bottom.

[Karbo]

22 hours ago, Karbo said:

It looks like a black hole in the lineup on the days he faces RHP

He hasn't hit above a .250 avg against RHP since 2019. Last year his OPS .724 was his best since 2019, in a much more hitter friendly ballpark. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Based on the above sentence... I'm willing to bet that you will be disappointed when it is all said and done. I hate to say that because you are a good guy and you deserve happiness. 😉

I'm willing to bet that Santana faces a lot of right handers.

Barring a significant injury that puts him on the shelf for a long time. I'll set the Over/Under at 250 AB's versus right handers and I will take the over. 

I'll predict that he has twice as many AB's against right handers then he does against left handers. 

If you are right though and the Twins do indeed strap Santana into a Kyle Garlick role. If Santana joins Farmer and Margot. I'm going to chuckle a bit because it will mean that our Twins have $21,500,000 worth of ball players stuffed into the SHORT SIDE.  With all of the discussion of belt tightening... after you take the 8 million that Dodgers included in the Margot trade... the Twins have 21.5 million worth of ball players and 13.5 million of actual money stuffed into the short side. 

That's tightening the belt to make plenty of room for junk food. 😄 

 

 

The reason Santana will get plenty of ABs against RH'd pitching is, the Twins are short one bat. Whether Kirilloff is at 1st and Santana at DH, or vice versa is irrelevant. Both are likely to play most games against RH pitching. 

Santana wasn't signed just to play 1st against LH pitching. 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Correct. But the discussion was about Santana taking ABs from him against righties or Santana hitting against righties at all. Santana has no business hitting against righties. AK needs to be the everyday 1B against righties and Santana needs to enjoy the seeds and gum on the bench.

The conversation about Santana playing close to every day doesn't have to mean he takes ABs from Kirilloff - I specifically said he would not elsewhere on this topic. However, if they are both in the lineup, my guess is Kirilloff is DH, because Santana is a better first baseman. This 'never against righties' for Santana is hyperbolic - he had a 98 OPS+ against RHP last year and hit 17 home runs. The 'never against a handed pitcher' is Kirilloff and LHP, where he had a .482 OPS last year. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The conversation about Santana playing close to every day doesn't have to mean he takes ABs from Kirilloff - I specifically said he would not elsewhere on this topic. However, if they are both in the lineup, my guess is Kirilloff is DH, because Santana is a better first baseman. This 'never against righties' for Santana is hyperbolic - he had a 98 OPS+ against RHP last year and hit 17 home runs. The 'never against a handed pitcher' is Kirilloff and LHP, where he had a .482 OPS last year. 

It doesn't have to mean that, no, but the comment I was replying to was someone comparing the 2 and suggesting Kirilloff wasn't that much better than Santana. If you're happy with a 1B or DH with a 98 OPS+ against 3/4s of the pitchers in the league that's cool. You're more than welcome to be happy with Santana. I don't believe he'll OPS .700 against them this year, and even if he's a 100 OPS+ against righties this year (really crushing father time at 38 years old), I don't want my primary 1B or DH to be a league average hitter. 

I fully expect Santana to get a whole lot of 1B and DH ABs against righties. And I think it's a mistake. Those are bat first positions and your best hope is that he's a league average hitter. And that's assuming the 38 year old doesn't fall back to his 35 and 36 year old seasons when his OPS+ against them was 86 and 78. Sorry, I'm not impressed with that from a 1B/DH. When it comes to the positions he plays he should not hit against right handed pitching.

[Cris E]

They are building for the possibilities that Kiriloff improves (hooray and Santana sees more DH time) or that he gets injured again (and Santana plays a lot) or that he slowly stumbles along and they have to wait months while he figures things out and Rocco platoons and all that.  These things evolve and are not set in stone right now.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

The reason Santana will get plenty of ABs against RH'd pitching is, the Twins are short one bat. Whether Kirilloff is at 1st and Santana at DH, or vice versa is irrelevant. Both are likely to play most games against RH pitching. 

Santana wasn't signed just to play 1st against LH pitching. 

I agree. Actually... my post to Chia Pet was originally going to say the exact same thing. They are one bat short to keep Santana on the short side. 

I ended up changing my mind on the post and chose to play up my sympathies to him instead for a more light hearted approach. 😁

I'll take another swing at light hearted approach. 

Chia Pet walks into a bar... The bartender says "Why the Long Face". 

Chia Pet says: 

A. The Twins signed Santana and I'm worried that he is going to face right handers. 

or

B. Do I look like a horse?

or

C. Dick Van Dyke was my grandpa and Mary Tyler Moore was my grandma... I didn't have a chance genetically.  

[stringer bell]

First, let me say that I don't really trust any defensive metrics to paint a picture of a player's defense. Now, on Santana, he put up 2.7 WAR according to BBRef--that rather lofty number was fueled by the measure that he saved 11 runs on defense. In his entire career at first base, he's saved 23 runs according to the DRS metric, so almost half of his DRS came in his age 37 season. To me, that sounds like a huge outlier and not a true representation of his value or his defense. 

Santana hit 23 homers and drove in 86 runs. To me that counts for something. A large part of that something is that he played almost every day and hit in the middle of the order for both teams that employed him last season. The .723 OPS as a left handed hitter was his best in several seasons. It was fueled by more power against right handed pitching than he had accomplished in several years. Still, his numbers versus righties are clearly inferior to Alex Kirilloff. 

I don't expect Carlos Santana to be an amazing defensive first baseman at age 38, but he has always been solid (above average) and I think too much credit is given to defense at first base. So, on balance, I doubt what the Twins will get from Santana is much above a replacement player and much of that will be from above average hitting against left handed pitching. 

Kirilloff, in a pretty small sample size, showed he can hit big league right handed pitching, with a hint that he can be much more than above average. Yes, he should be in the lineup against every right handed pitcher as long as he is healthy. When Rocco decides to give regular like Kepler, Correa, Lewis and Buxton a half day off against a right handed pitcher, then Kirilloff should and probably will be the first baseman. I would guess on Opening Day, he will DH and Santana will be at first base. 

Kirilloff's defensive metrics last year were every bit as subpar as Satana's were good. I don't see why AK can't be at least an average defensive first baseman and I'll continue to believe that his poor defense last year was either an outlier or a result of playing with and recovering from injury. 

Now, what I am gnashing my teeth about already is the scenario where Kirilloff is at first base and the opponent brings in a lefty in the middle innings. There's probably a 75% chance that Santana pinch hits for AK until or unless Kirilloff shows immense improvement in a small sample size against lefties. The flip side is that Kirilloff will hit for Santana somewhere between seldom and never and seldom is on it's way out of town. Alex might hit for the DH on occasion, perhaps Margot, but he will most likely get pinch hit for much more than he pinch hits. 

To summarize, Kirilloff is likely to be strictly platooned, but Santana is not. Asking the 38 year old to duplicate his season last year is a big lift and unless injury clears the spot, there will be precious little chance for 26-year-old Alex Kirilloff to prove he's more than a platoon bat.

 

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

There's probably a 75% chance that Santana pinch hits for AK until or unless Kirilloff shows immense improvement in a small sample size against lefties.

Yes, pinch hitting Santana for Kirilloff improves the offense in that at-bat and the defense for the rest of the game. This is why they bring in Farmer for Julien. We're likely to see Margot do this with Wallner, too.

[Swing Batter-Batter]

On 2/28/2024 at 12:20 PM, Karbo said:

defensively yes, But he hasn't hit much against RHP for the last few years. Can he save enough runs to make up for his negative hitting?

I was thinking that Santana would be used against left-handed pitching and Kirilloff against right-handed pitching.

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree. Actually... my post to Chia Pet was originally going to say the exact same thing. They are one bat short to keep Santana on the short side. 

I ended up changing my mind on the post and chose to play up my sympathies to him instead for a more light hearted approach. 😁

I'll take another swing at light hearted approach. 

Chia Pet walks into a bar... The bartender says "Why the Long Face". 

Chia Pet says: 

A. The Twins signed Santana and I'm worried that he is going to face right handers. 

or

B. Do I look like a horse?

or

C. Dick Van Dyke was my grandpa and Mary Tyler Moore was my grandma... I didn't have a chance genetically.  

Santana can have the town, I hope he takes it. He might just make it after all. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/28/2024 at 2:19 PM, jorgenswest said:

Of the position players I would like to see a bat emerge that can join the line up against right handed pitching. I would hope Larnach could win that job likely at the expense of Farmer. If they think Larnach can approach an 800 OPS+ against right handed pitching they need that bat. Even in his inconsistent start to his career his career OPS+ against right handed pitching is 741 and better than we should expect from Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez.

Losing Farmer does hurt the line up against left handed pitching and depth behind Correa. I think the short side platoon loss can be minimized. Even in games started by a lefty that probably means two plate appearances. I don’t think the drop in the game takes a hit with Julien at the bottom of the order seeing that lefty at most twice and then likely right handed relievers. Castro is also an option to start some at 2B as well as being a defensive sub. Castro is also my short term option if Correa needs a day or two of rest. If he needs an IL stay then Lee gets his feet wet or they bring up Helman.

I hope that Larnach has an opportunity to win a job. I also hope Lee has an opportunity to win a job.

 

2023 Twins best plus/minus ……..Kyle Farmer 70-50 team record in his games played. (he would have played more but was out a month after getting hit in the face)

Not going anywhere! He’s adept defensively at all 3 spots on the dirt & the perfect platoon with Julien. …….He’ll start at Shortstop 20-25 games……..maybe 15 at 3B since Castro will help there as well.

30% at 2B v. LH pitching so that’s conservatively 45 games. Starts 80-90 games total and sees time in 110-120. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/28/2024 at 1:21 PM, Karbo said:

It looks like a black hole in the lineup on the days he faces RHP

I do not think Santana has a chance to start ahead of Kirilloff v. RH pitching. Makes no sense. ……..potentially, people stating Santana is the “regular guy at 1B” are same that also think Brooks Lee will be at 2B & Julien will take over 1B. Silly, IMO.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

2023 Twins best plus/minus ……..Kyle Farmer 70-50 team record in his games played. (he would have played more but was out a month after getting hit in the face)

Is that by game started? If your team has the lead and you are the late inning defensive sub wouldn’t that skew your win total? Does it change you thought if he was around 35-29 in his complete games?

Farmer is a valuable major league player. I am not certain that his bench role is worthy of being the 6th highest paid player on this team. If this were a team with even a median payroll it would not be in question. I want him on that team. That team would have spent more on the Santana/Margot spots and invest in everyday players. That isn’t the case. 

As for shortstop, Castro has an average DRS and RAA over his last three years at SS. He certainly can fill in for a rest day or a few days off. If Correa goes on the IL they need to bring up Lee whether Farmer is on the roster or not. Farmer would be exposed in a regular SS job where he routinely faced right handed pitching as he was with the Reds.

note: DeSclafani and Margot will be paid more than Farmer this year but not out of the Twins budget.

[JD-TWINS]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Is that by game started? If your team has the lead and you are the late inning defensive sub wouldn’t that skew your win total? Does it change you thought if he was around 35-29 in his complete games?

Farmer is a valuable major league player. I am not certain that his bench role is worthy of being the 6th highest paid player on the team. If this were a team with even a median payroll it would not be in question. I want him on that team. That team would have been able to spend more on the Santana/Margot spots and invest in everyday players. That isn’t the case. I honestly believe that they miscalculated and thought they could trade him but found no takers.

As for shortstop, Castro has an average DRS and RAA over his last three years at SS. He certainly can fill in for a rest day or a few days off. If Correa goes on the IL they need to bring up Lee whether Farmer is on the roster or not. Farmer would be exposed in a regular SS job where he routinely faced right handed pitching as he was with the Reds.

note: DeSclafani and Margot will be paid more than Farmer this year but not out of the Twins budget.

So 12 months ago Farmer was the full time starting SS. Right?

70-50 is the record he had in games played……do the guys he displaced whenever he entered a game not get credit for being involved in a win????

Are defensive replacements put into games because they have low value or because there is a level of confidence in their play?

Saying Larnach might beat out Farmer is ………,,won’t go there.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Santana can have the town, I hope he takes it. He might just make it after all. 

I'm pulling for him... No Idea how to rate him yet. 

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Based on the above sentence... I'm willing to bet that you will be disappointed when it is all said and done. I hate to say that because you are a good guy and you deserve happiness. 😉

I'm willing to bet that Santana faces a lot of right handers.

Barring a significant injury that puts him on the shelf for a long time. I'll set the Over/Under at 250 AB's versus right handers and I will take the over. 

I'll predict that he has twice as many AB's against right handers then he does against left handers. 

If you are right though and the Twins do indeed strap Santana into a Kyle Garlick role. If Santana joins Farmer and Margot. I'm going to chuckle a bit because it will mean that our Twins have $21,500,000 worth of ball players stuffed into the SHORT SIDE.  With all of the discussion of belt tightening... after you take the 8 million that Dodgers included in the Margot trade... the Twins have 21.5 million worth of ball players and 13.5 million of actual money stuffed into the short side. 

That's tightening the belt to make plenty of room for junk food. 😄 

 

 

I am not sure I would characterize Farmer as a short-side platoon player.  They have always used him for defensive versatility and the ability to back-up SS.  The fact that he hits LHP very well adds to his value because he is starter caliber against LHP but I don't think it's fair to say his only value is as a platoon player.  The same type of nuance is true with Sanatana IMO.  He can be primarily a platoon player and also have some value playing against RHP because of his defense.  I hope the equation is much closer to 1:1 as opposed to the 2:1 you have predicted.  I would do that by playing Castro in some capacity everyday a RHP is on the mound.  He can B/U LF/CF/3B/2B and even SS and let the regular starters DH.  I would even DH him over Santana against RHP.

Where the $$$ are concerned.  The inference that the Twins failed in the challenge to bring in players at a low cost because those players are making a lot of money that is being paid by another team makes no sense.   What difference does it make what the player is being paid if the team isn't paying it?  You are as logical and fair as anyone on this site but you might want to reconsider this one.     

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I am not sure I would characterize Farmer as a short-side platoon player.  They have always used him for defensive versatility and the ability to back-up SS.  The fact that he hits LHP very well adds to his value because he is starter caliber against LHP but I don't think it's fair to say his only value is as a platoon player.  The same type of nuance is true with Sanatana IMO.  He can be primarily a platoon player and also have some value playing against RHP because of his defense.  I hope the equation is much close to 1:1 as opposed to the 2:1 you have predicted.  I would do that by playing Castro in some capacity everyday a RHP is on the mound.  He can B/U LF/CF/3B/2B and even SS and let the regular starters DH.  I would even DH him over Santana against RHP.

Where the $$$ are concerned.  The inference that the Twins failed in the challenge to bring in players at a low cost because those players are making a lot of money that is being paid by another team makes no sense.   What difference does it make what the player is being paid if the team isn't paying it?  You are as logical and fair as anyone on this site but you might want to reconsider this one.     

I agree that it isn't a fair characterization of Kyle Farmer and your response is kind of the point I'm making. 😎

Experience has taught me (all of us really) that injuries are going to throw all of these carefully made left side/right side plans into the garbage anyway. We don't know who will get hurt and for how long but I'm pretty sure that we are going to lose significant man hours that will influence all of the playing time expectations being currently discussed so you and I agree that Farmer is going to be much more than a short sider Garlick/Luplow type. 

When Correa goes on the disabled list... Farmer will be the every day SS against right handers and left handers. When Lewis goes on the disabled list... Farmer will be the every day 3B against right handers and left handers. When Julien goes on the disabled list... Farmer will be the every day 2B against right handers and left handers. It is not a given that Brooks Lee is handed a 40 man spot when these things occur and they will occur. Julien may not have exhibited an injury history to this point but that doesn't mean that he won't twist an ankle or take a fastball off the wrist. Lewis has exhibited a severe injury history and Correa hobbled through last season and has a diagnosed medical issue that scared off the Mets and Giants. Not to mention the injury histories of Kirilloff and Buxton and the injury possibilities of every one and it's all going to lay waste to those carefully made left/right plans so carefully crafted together during the off-season.

Kind of like that beautiful decorated cake. 

Once the season starts and the injuries hit... that off-season cake that was so carefully put together will look like this. 

 

I agree that Farmer is so much more than a hitter to deployed against left handers but... and here comes my point. 

What he excels at offensively is hitting left handers. If you needed him to hit right handers... that isn't what he is good at and you should find someone else for that task. But... you are right... He's going to face them... he's going to face more right handers and than he faces left handers. 

Therefore... I was inspired to comment based on Chia Pet... (I'm calling him Chia Pet from now on out and I hope he changes his handle to reflect that) commenting that he hopes Santana never faces a right handed pitcher. Santana is also going to face more right handers than left handers... yet... like Farmer... what he does best offensively is hit left handers. If you need someone to hit right handers... Santana probably isn't the best choice. Same goes for Margot.

All 3 of Farmer, Santana and Margot are going to face more right handers than left handers. Yet it could be argued that the reason they were added to the roster was because they hit left handers. 

As far as the $$$ part of my post. I agree with you and I am happy that the Dodgers tossed 8 million dollars over to us and I recognize the significance of that and I made sure to mention both contract value of the three players (21.3) and what the Twins are paying (13.3).

The reason both the contract value and what the Twins are paying both matter to me is to illustrate what we are investing into players who hit left handers much better than they hit right handers... when they will face more right handers.

It has become expensive to make that beautiful off-season cake that won't last because they will be facing more right handers. It has become expensive in a time when pay roll is stressed. We have a limited amount of dollars to throw around and we threw a lot of dollars into players who hit left handers better than right handers.  

They have invested 21.3 million worth of players (Contract) (13.3 paid by Twins) because they have a favorable platoon split against left handers who comprise 28% of the arms that a team will face and a weakness against 72%. For what... To maintain the platoon integrity? To provide 5 to 10 extra on base balls out of the 100 balls in the plate appearance raffle drum for 28% of the time?

Since it's easy to predict that Farmer, Margot and Santana will face right handers more often than left handers. Why not take that money and sign one player with that money who can hit both sides of the plate or at least hit the 72% side? 

I don't like the word "Bench"... I don't use it. I want 26 players who can play. But I will use it now... We spent 13.3 million on the bench! A bench that consists of guys who are weak against the pitching hand that will be on the mound 72% of the time. 

It's too much for a team that needs to count pennies.  

      

 

  

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree that it isn't a fair characterization of Kyle Farmer and your response is kind of the point I'm making. 😎

Experience has taught me (all of us really) that injuries are going to throw all of these carefully made left side/right side plans into the garbage anyway. We don't know who will get hurt and for how long but I'm pretty sure that we are going to lose significant man hours that will influence all of the playing time expectations being currently discussed so you and I agree that Farmer is going to be much more than a short sider Garlick/Luplow type. 

When Correa goes on the disabled list... Farmer will be the every day SS against right handers and left handers. When Lewis goes on the disabled list... Farmer will be the every day 3B against right handers and left handers. When Julien goes on the disabled list... Farmer will be the every day 2B against right handers and left handers. It is not a given that Brooks Lee is handed a 40 man spot when these things occur and they will occur. Julien may not have exhibited an injury history to this point but that doesn't mean that he won't twist an ankle or take a fastball off the wrist. Lewis has exhibited a severe injury history and Correa hobbled through last season and has a diagnosed medical issue that scared off the Mets and Giants. Not to mention the injury histories of Kirilloff and Buxton and the injury possibilities of every one and it's all going to lay waste to those carefully made left/right plans so carefully crafted together during the off-season.

Kind of like that beautiful decorated cake. 

Once the season starts and the injuries hit... that off-season cake that was so carefully put together will look like this. 

 

I agree that Farmer is so much more than a hitter to deployed against left handers but... and here comes my point. 

What he excels at offensively is hitting left handers. If you needed him to hit right handers... that isn't what he is good at and you should find someone else for that task. But... you are right... He's going to face them... he's going to face more right handers and than he faces left handers. 

Therefore... I was inspired to comment based on Chia Pet... (I'm calling him Chia Pet from now on out and I hope he changes his handle to reflect that) commenting that he hopes Santana never faces a right handed pitcher. Santana is also going to face more right handers than left handers... yet... like Farmer... what he does best offensively is hit left handers. If you need someone to hit right handers... Santana probably isn't the best choice. Same goes for Margot.

All 3 of Farmer, Santana and Margot are going to face more right handers than left handers. Yet it could be argued that the reason they were added to the roster was because they hit left handers. 

As far as the $$$ part of my post. I agree with you and I am happy that the Dodgers tossed 8 million dollars over to us and I recognize the significance of that and I made sure to mention both contract value of the three players (21.3) and what the Twins are paying (13.3).

The reason both the contract value and what the Twins are paying both matter to me is to illustrate what we are investing into players who hit left handers much better than they hit right handers... when they will face more right handers.

It has become expensive to make that beautiful off-season cake that won't last because they will be facing more right handers. It has become expensive in a time when pay roll is stressed. We have a limited amount of dollars to throw around and we threw a lot of dollars into players who hit left handers better than right handers.  

They have invested 21.3 million worth of players (Contract) (13.3 paid by Twins) because they have a favorable platoon split against left handers who comprise 28% of the arms that a team will face and a weakness against 72%. For what... To maintain the platoon integrity? To provide 5 to 10 extra on base balls out of the 100 balls in the plate appearance raffle drum for 28% of the time?

Since it's easy to predict that Farmer, Margot and Santana will face right handers more often than left handers. Why not take that money and sign one player with that money who can hit both sides of the plate or at least hit the 72% side? 

I don't like the word "Bench"... I don't use it. I want 26 players who can play. But I will use it now... We spent 13.3 million on the bench! A bench that consists of guys who are weak against the pitching hand that will be on the mound 72% of the time. 

It's too much for a team that needs to count pennies.    

No doubt injuries derail the best laid plans.

The answer as to why they don't just sign guys that can hit both LHP and RHP is pretty simple.  They are starters and they cost a lot more.  It's also harder to get them on one-year contracts.  Were there specific players you had in mind that would have been a better fit?

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

No doubt injuries derail the best laid plans.

The answer as to why they don't just sign guys that can hit both LHP and RHP is pretty simple.  They are starters and they cost a lot more.  It's also harder to get them on one-year contracts.  Were there specific players you had in mind that would have been a better fit?

I have guys that I like but I really tend to stay out of being specific... but yeah I stray into specific players from time to time even though I realize that I shouldn't.  

But, since you are asking for examples. Honestly, I would have kept Polanco. 

If Polanco needs to go (I don't think he did). 

Hoskins would have been a great addition.

Solar would have been a good addition. Yes they have extra years but next year can be addressed next year. 

But... I want to clarify... I've said this often. I don't use the terms starters or bench to describe any player. I want 26 guys who can play and I don't start looking for lesser players for spots 10 through 13. Solano and Castro would have been 10 through 13 players last year and they were 3rd and 4th in plate appearances last year. Correa and Kepler were #1 and #2 and they were not very good. Correa wasn't very good until the playoffs and Kepler wasn't very good until the all-star break. 

You will never find me settling for lesser players for any of the 26 spots. 

 

[Riverbrian]

23 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I have guys that I like but I really tend to stay out of being specific... but yeah I stray into specific players from time to time even though I realize that I shouldn't.  

But, since you are asking for examples. Honestly, I would have kept Polanco. 

If Polanco needs to go (I don't think he did). 

Hoskins would have been a great addition.

Solar would have been a good addition. Yes they have extra years but next year can be addressed next year. 

But... I want to clarify... I've said this often. I don't use the terms starters or bench to describe any player. I want 26 guys who can play and I don't start looking for lesser players for spots 10 through 13. Solano and Castro would have been 10 through 13 players last year and they were 3rd and 4th in plate appearances last year. Correa and Kepler were #1 and #2 and they were not very good. Correa wasn't very good until the playoffs and Kepler wasn't very good until the all-star break. 

You will never find me settling for lesser players for any of the 26 spots. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

What about the numerous national baseball writers, podcasters, and TV analysts who said this was a very good deal for the Twins.  I didn't see or hear a single baseball person suggest this was a mistake.  Were they all just unable to look past Julien?

The 13 best players don't necessarily combine to make the best team.  Polanco would have been the inferior player when replacing Julien against RHP or Farmer against LHP.  He would have also been the inferior player replacing Lewis.  They would have needed to take a roster spot for DH and if they were going to do that, they could have gotten an equivalent hitter for the money and netted 2 pitchers and 2 prospects.  

Yes, on a 26-man rosters, players will get hurt but any value from Polanco relies upon one of Julien or Lewis being injured for a sustained period.  Then, there is always the question of how to get Lee into the lineup when he is ready not to mention a few other prospects that could play into this season and beyond.  There are numerous reasons that Polanco was named the most likely player to be traded from this roster.

I'm strong enough on my own two feet to not have to rely upon national baseball writers, podcasters and TV analysts for influence. 😉

I think you are also strong enough on your own two feet to not need that type of influence either. Both of us have bravely continued on... through the heavy winds of the popular opinions prevalent on this website. I have seen you not back down against national baseball writers, podcasters, TV Analysts and a ton of posters on this site in regards to fiscal responsibility. I'm not sure why you'd expect less of me so I hope you don't mind if I blow past your first paragraph. 

2nd Paragraph:

I'm not sure how the best 13 players do not combine make the best team in any circumstance but I think the point you are making is based on the extremely limiting containment of all 3 players to the 2B position. You have to know by now that I am not going to contain all 3 of those players to one tiny bucket.

You have justified letting Polanco go because: Polanco would have been the inferior player when replacing Julien against RHP or Farmer against LHP.

I'll go down this path using (Choose your favorite stat - I'll use OPS for simplicity)

Julien had an OPS of .898 against Right Handers while Polanco had an OPS .775 last year. (.803 Career). So... Julien is better against Right handed pitchers. 

Now since Polanco had a higher OPS against lefties than Farmer did last year. (.824 to .782). We will have to switch to career in order to make Farmer the better option against left handers. Farmer has a career .825 against the southpaw while Polanco has on LH OPS of .729. So... Farmer is now the better option against left handers. 

1. We can't use last year for one example and career for another. But we really can't use career for Julien since he really doesn't have a career yet. So... you basically have to use two different sets of time to make this the truth. 

2. And... let's address the obvious... You have to not only use two seperate time periods but you have to use two separate players... two separate 26 man roster spots just to make Polanco the inferior player. 

3. You can't right/left handcuff at all 9 positions. You can only do it at three positions at most unless you find a left/right catching handcuff for a 4th. You will need 5 players who can face both hands. 

4. If you remove the containment chains of 2B in order to combine two players together to make Polanco the inferior player. You don't have to sign Santana. The DH Spot is still sitting there if everybody stays healthy... and you acknowledge that they will not stay healthy. 

Paragraph 3

Your first sentence is inaccurate. Polanco's value to the team is that he was one of our best hitters last year and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that. '

Even if Lewis, Julien and Farmer stay healthy all year long... Polanco is still one of our best hitters on the team and I think he may be the most consistent good hitter on the club. You may or may not agree with that but at the very least... you and I should be able to agree that Polanco is a better hitter than Santana at age 38 who was the player acquired with the Polanco cost savings. 

As for Brooks Lee... He isn't here yet. When he gets here... we will see what kind of contributions he makes to the team... we will see if the team is in contention or not... There will be more data and recent data to consider so they can cross the Brooks Lee bridge at the appropriate time.  If Brooks Lee was a consideration for the trading of Polanco... the front office better be right about BROOKS LEE THIS YEAR and not next year because that would be the type of thing that would make me shake my faith in them. 

Polanco got traded... there are obviously going to be reasons for the deal. Including the very strong possibility that Seattle wanted Polanco over Farmer and were willing to give up a pretty strong package when you include the young top 100 prospect they included. 

I have already moved on from the Polanco deal and also conceded that if it comes down to budget... it comes down to budget... All teams have a budget that he will adhere to.  

But if you are asking me for specifics. I would have kept Polanco over Descalfini, Santana and Margot at the same money. 

[stringer bell]

Thanks for your comments @Riverbrian, always a good read. I guess I don't agree with part of your comments though--I think that if we get past May 1st without a disabling infield injury, the first recall will be Brooks Lee and that he'll play every day until the disabled player returns. The 40-man spot is valuable, but there likely will be disabling pitching injuries that make adding Lee pretty painless. 

Specifically with Farmer, there is another guy who can play second, short and third and IMHO he's a better defender and that is Willi Castro. With the addition of Margot in the outfield, there should be plenty of opportunities for Castro to play in the infield and at least last year, he was a far better hitter than Farmer against right handed pitching. 

[Major League Ready]

18 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 

I'm strong enough on my own two feet to not have to rely upon national baseball writers, podcasters and TV analysts for influence. 😉

I think you are also strong enough on your own two feet to not need that type of influence either. Both of us have bravely continued on... through the heavy winds of the popular opinions prevalent on this website. I have seen you not back down against national baseball writers, podcasters, TV Analysts and a ton of posters on this site in regards to fiscal responsibility. I'm not sure why you'd expect less of me so I hope you don't mind if I blow past your first paragraph. 

2nd Paragraph:

I'm not sure how the best 13 players do not combine make the best team in any circumstance but I think the point you are making is based on the extremely limiting containment of all 3 players to the 2B position. You have to know by now that I am not going to contain all 3 of those players to one tiny bucket.

You have justified letting Polanco go because: Polanco would have been the inferior player when replacing Julien against RHP or Farmer against LHP.

I'll go down this path using (Choose your favorite stat - I'll use OPS for simplicity)

Julien had an OPS of .898 against Right Handers while Polanco had an OPS .775 last year. (.803 Career). So... Julien is better against Right handed pitchers. 

Now since Polanco had a higher OPS against lefties than Farmer did last year. (.824 to .782). We will have to switch to career in order to make Farmer the better option against left handers. Farmer has a career .825 against the southpaw while Polanco has on LH OPS of .729. So... Farmer is now the better option against left handers. 

1. We can't use last year for one example and career for another. But we really can't use career for Julien since he really doesn't have a career yet. So... you basically have to use two different sets of time to make this the truth. 

2. And... let's address the obvious... You have to not only use two seperate time periods but you have to use two separate players... two separate 26 man roster spots just to make Polanco the inferior player. 

3. You can't right/left handcuff at all 9 positions. You can only do it at three positions at most unless you find a left/right catching handcuff for a 4th. You will need 5 players who can face both hands. 

4. If you remove the containment chains of 2B in order to combine two players together to make Polanco the inferior player. You don't have to sign Santana. The DH Spot is still sitting there if everybody stays healthy... and you acknowledge that they will not stay healthy. 

Paragraph 3

Your first sentence is inaccurate. Polanco's value to the team is that he was one of our best hitters last year and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that. '

Even if Lewis, Julien and Farmer stay healthy all year long... Polanco is still one of our best hitters on the team and I think he may be the most consistent good hitter on the club. You may or may not agree with that but at the very least... you and I should be able to agree that Polanco is a better hitter than Santana at age 38 who was the player acquired with the Polanco cost savings. 

As for Brooks Lee... He isn't here yet. When he gets here... we will see what kind of contributions he makes to the team... we will see if the team is in contention or not... There will be more data and recent data to consider so they can cross the Brooks Lee bridge at the appropriate time.  If Brooks Lee was a consideration for the trading of Polanco... the front office better be right about BROOKS LEE THIS YEAR and not next year because that would be the type of thing that would make me shake my faith in them. 

Polanco got traded... there are obviously going to be reasons for the deal. Including the very strong possibility that Seattle wanted Polanco over Farmer and were willing to give up a pretty strong package when you include the young top 100 prospect they included. 

I have already moved on from the Polanco deal and also conceded that if it comes down to budget... it comes down to budget... All teams have a budget that he will adhere to.  

But if you are asking me for specifics. I would have kept Polanco over Descalfini, Santana and Margot at the same money. 

I will stand by an opinion when the majority here disagree with my position.  It would be an entirely different thing for me if all of the people who are supposed to be experts have an opinion that is very different than mine.  That would make take a hard look at my stance.  That's just me.  It's certainly not the case for many sports fans.

We just disagree on this one.  Julien is the better hitter IMO (and the Twins) against RHP.  Farmer had a bit of an off year against LHP and Polanco had an up year.  We are talking about 87ABs against LHP for Polanco and 114 for Farmer.  Polanco was almost 100 points higher than his career numbers over this SSS.  I generally weight recent data more heavily but not with this SSS so yes, I would be inclined to look at career numbers for players with long track records like Polanco and Farmer.  Farmer has been quite a bit better than Polanco against LHP.  Farmer also offers better positional flexibility.  I take Farmer and the return on Polanco every time.  

I also place value in the prospect return more than most because of all of the time spent studying the impact of the various sources of player acquisition.  I get the impression you are not putting any value in that part of the return.  I took a 10 season sample of the best years of the Rays, As, and Guardians in order to illustrate.  45% of their WAR from players with 1.5 WAR or more came from players that were acquired as prospects.  Prospect defined as never having reached the 1.5 WAR level.  25% came from players they drafted.  Internation draft was 10%.  Trading depth like Polanco is how these three organizations built teams that significantly outperformed the other organizations in the bottom half of revenue over the past couple of decades.

[Riverbrian]

On 3/2/2024 at 11:56 AM, stringer bell said:

Thanks for your comments @Riverbrian, always a good read. I guess I don't agree with part of your comments though--I think that if we get past May 1st without a disabling infield injury, the first recall will be Brooks Lee and that he'll play every day until the disabled player returns. The 40-man spot is valuable, but there likely will be disabling pitching injuries that make adding Lee pretty painless. 

Specifically with Farmer, there is another guy who can play second, short and third and IMHO he's a better defender and that is Willi Castro. With the addition of Margot in the outfield, there should be plenty of opportunities for Castro to play in the infield and at least last year, he was a far better hitter than Farmer against right handed pitching. 

If I had to bet... We will probably see Lee in a Twins uniform this season and it could be as soon as the extra year is gained. I still request or at least hope that Lee be required to demonstrate some proficiancy at the AAA level first but if I had to bet... We will probably see Lee in a Twins uniform this season. 

I think it's important to curb some enthusiasm though. Even if we see Lee... we don't what he will be. On that you must agree. His arrival might be a reasonable bet but his production upon arrival is certainly no certainty. 

If Lee in a Twins uniform is used as justification for trading Polanco. They better be right because it would be a completely unnecessary dice roll considering that Lee doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until Dec 2025. 

 

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If I had to bet... We will probably see Lee in a Twins uniform this season and it could be as soon as the extra year is gained. I still request or at least hope that Lee be required to demonstrate some proficiancy at the AAA level first but if I had to bet... We will probably see Lee in a Twins uniform this season. 

I think it's important to curb some enthusiasm though. Even if we see Lee... we don't what he will be. On that you must agree. His arrival might be a reasonable bet but his production upon arrival is certainly no certainty. 

If Lee in a Twins uniform is used as justification for trading Polanco. They better be right because it would be a completely unnecessary dice roll considering that Lee doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until Dec 2025. 

 

I certainly concur that we don’t know what we’ll get from Brooks Lee. He could struggle greatly or perhaps be uneven showing he needs more time or he could hit the ground running so much so that he changes everything and is an every day starter from some point this year, never returning to the minors.

He is probably much more likely to return to St. Paul. I don’t foresee second, short or third turned over to Farmer on a daily basis and think the Twins would opt for taking a chance on their #2 prospect. Obviously, I could be wrong, but they have aggressively promoted him since he was signed. 

[wabene]

On 3/1/2024 at 9:53 AM, Riverbrian said:

Once the season starts and the injuries hit... that off-season cake that was so carefully put together will look like this. 

I'd prefer this cake, but I'm a freak for chocolate. 

[Riverbrian]

21 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I will stand by an opinion when the majority here disagree with my position.  It would be an entirely different thing for me if all of the people who are supposed to be experts have an opinion that is very different than mine.  That would make take a hard look at my stance.  That's just me.  It's certainly not the case for many sports fans.

We just disagree on this one.  Julien is the better hitter IMO (and the Twins) against RHP.  Farmer had a bit of an off year against LHP and Polanco had an up year.  We are talking about 87ABs against LHP for Polanco and 114 for Farmer.  Polanco was almost 100 points higher than his career numbers over this SSS.  I generally weight recent data more heavily but not with this SSS so yes, I would be inclined to look at career numbers for players with long track records like Polanco and Farmer.  Farmer has been quite a bit better than Polanco against LHP.  Farmer also offers better positional flexibility.  I take Farmer and the return on Polanco every time.  

I also place value in the prospect return more than most because of all of the time spent studying the impact of the various sources of player acquisition.  I get the impression you are not putting any value in that part of the return.  I took a 10 season sample of the best years of the Rays, As, and Guardians in order to illustrate.  45% of their WAR from players with 1.5 WAR or more came from players that were acquired as prospects.  Prospect defined as never having reached the 1.5 WAR level.  25% came from players they drafted.  Internation draft was 10%.  Trading depth like Polanco is how these three organizations built teams that significantly outperformed the other organizations in the bottom half of revenue over the past couple of decades.

I'm guessing that the Brewers would be a good team to add to your list of 3 teams. The Brewers have spent a lot of time in contention and they have loudly at times moved players on expiring contracts for prospects and certainly revenue challenged, 

Trading value before they reach free agency is absolutely a viable strategy. Cleveland, Tampa and Oakland have done a great job of this as you point out. 

Now there are some considerations that come to my mind. 

1. There are primarily 3 ways that teams acquire players for their team. Draft/IFA Development, Free Agency/Waivers and of course trades. If a team doesn't participate fully in one of those areas.... for example If they shop the waiver wires and bargain basement free agents... it would in theory produce a low percentage in that avenue of talent acquisition... therefore a natural by-product would be higher percentage in your model from the other two avenues. Development or Trades,  You have 100% to account for. If Free Agency only accounts for 10%.... There is 90% to divide up between the other two. 

You'd have to compare contrast across all teams. I'd guess that any team that typically stays out of free agency is going to have a higher percentage of development or trades. 

2. Of the 3 primary ways to acquire talent or WAR as you are using as a measurement. Only 1 avenue requires sending WAR Back and that is trades. Kyle Manzardo will probably be a shining star in your research for a while if you continue with it. But, the WAR that Aaron Civale who they traded for him has to be factored in. Right Now... I'm betting that Cleveland is sorry that they gave up a lot of future WAR by trading Junior Caminero. Nolan Jones looks like a big negative in that department. Will Benson with the Reds might be someone they would like back. 45% via trade does look impressive but I can't help wonder how much WAR went the other way. 

3. Context has to be considered. You use the Rays as an example and rightly so. However, They are the team gave up Manzardo for Civale. They were the team that gave up Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz. Context contending or not contending determines if they acquire prospects or if they acquire expiring contracts. 

I agree with you... the Twins should pay attention to what these teams are doing. They have done well. But... Context matters. I think the Twins are contenders... I think Polanco is one of the best hitters on the team. I would have kept him. 

 

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm guessing that the Brewers would be a good team to add to your list of 3 teams. The Brewers have spent a lot of time in contention and they have loudly at times moved players on expiring contracts for prospects and certainly revenue challenged, 

Trading value before they reach free agency is absolutely a viable strategy. Cleveland, Tampa and Oakland have done a great job of this as you point out. 

Now there are some considerations that come to my mind. 

1. There are primarily 3 ways that teams acquire players for their team. Draft/IFA Development, Free Agency/Waivers and of course trades. If a team doesn't participate fully in one of those areas.... for example If they shop the waiver wires and bargain basement free agents... it would in theory produce a low percentage in that avenue of talent acquisition... therefore a natural by-product would be higher percentage in your model from the other two avenues. Development or Trades,  You have 100% to account for. If Free Agency only accounts for 10%.... There is 90% to divide up between the other two. 

You'd have to compare contrast across all teams. I'd guess that any team that typically stays out of free agency is going to have a higher percentage of development or trades. 

2. Of the 3 primary ways to acquire talent or WAR as you are using as a measurement. Only 1 avenue requires sending WAR Back and that is trades. Kyle Manzardo will probably be a shining star in your research for a while if you continue with it. But, the WAR that Aaron Civale who they traded for him has to be factored in. Right Now... I'm betting that Cleveland is sorry that they gave up a lot of future WAR by trading Junior Caminero. Nolan Jones looks like a big negative in that department. Will Benson with the Reds might be someone they would like back. 45% via trade does look impressive but I can't help wonder how much WAR went the other way. 

3. Context has to be considered. You use the Rays as an example and rightly so. However, They are the team gave up Manzardo for Civale. They were the team that gave up Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz. Context contending or not contending determines if they acquire prospects or if they acquire expiring contracts. 

I agree with you... the Twins should pay attention to what these teams are doing. They have done well. But... Context matters. I think the Twins are contenders... I think Polanco is one of the best hitters on the team. I would have kept him. 

I already have the 22/23 Brewers but I want to add the 2018 and 2011 teams that won 96 games in each season..  I am going to add a couple Dback teams as well.  These two teams are the only National league teams that have done much in the past 25 years but they are well behind the As, Rays, and Guardians in terms of win% and/or 90 win seasons. 

The Twins actually rank higher in win% and 90 win seasons.  The Twins rank 13th in win% and and the brewers rank 19th and have one less 90 win seasons.  I think the twins will widen that margin over the next few years.

The model is a macro view designed to determine the relative influence of each of the acquisition methods for 90 win teams.  I was reading the debate here a few years ago and wondered if certain methods were as critical as some posters felt they were.  I collected the information to satisfy my own curiosity.  A loss via trading away a player is captured by another which is part of the point of the exercise.  This model does not tell us if a team made a bad trade but it does tell us what practices contributed to building a good team in a given year.  The aggregate data provides a pretty clear view of the relative impact of trading for established players vs trading for prospects.