Minnesota Twins PECOTA Projections: The Pitchers

[Matt Braun]

What does Baseball Prospectus’s flagship projection system think of Minnesota’s hurlers?

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The end of the Super Bowl means two things: pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and projection season. Teams are finished touching up their roster (sans a notable quartet of free agents still available), allowing our not-quite-yet robot overlords to offer their opinions on each squad.

I previously reviewed PECOTA’s predictions for the 2023 team here, and the articles about the pitching and hitting projections can be found here and here, respectively, along with a short description of what any of this is. Let’s wait no more, here are Minnesota’s top 12 projected pitchers.

(Other notable projected pitchers include Kody Funderburk (0.3 WARP), Jay Jackson (0.2), and Matt Canterino (0.2).)

Edit: I also forgot that Steven Okert shows up as a Marlin in the spreadsheet; his projection is a 3.94 ERA, a 4.11 FIP, and 0.5 WARP.

That Pablo López comes in as the best pitcher on the team is no surprise; PECOTA pegged him as a top-tier arm last year, and he only reinforced the system's confidence with his best all-around year to date. PECOTA only sees 10 other pitchers accruing more WARP in 2024.

Then, Joe Ryan. Man, PECOTA loves Joe Ryan. He had an eyebrow-raisingly high projection heading into 2022, and ranked solidly last year. It’s hard not to love his ability to combine an elite strikeout rate with an abnormally low walk rate; projections eat that skillset up. I think his relatively new home run problem gives the computer hope that it’s a fluke, not a sudden slide into late-career Bert Blyleven “all systems go” territory.

Bailey Ober rounds out the trio that, according to PECOTA, gives the Twins three of the 40 best pitchers in MLB. Yet again, projections love guys who can whiff hitters while keeping the walks low—and Ober’s increased workload in 2023 increased confidence in him staying healthy moving forward.

Jhoan Durán earns the best projection among all MLB relievers. His odd command downslide in 2023 did not portend disaster: he still struck out everyone and their mother and upped his groundball rate to 65.9%. Much like low walk rates, projection systems adore pitchers able to induce grounders at an elevated clip. When matched with elite strikeout production, few other relief arms can touch Durán.

The last thing I want to touch on is the two final arms. Dan Szymborski talked about the Brock Stewart conundrum in his piece here, in which he explains the deviation surrounding Stewart has to do with sample size: how can you project a 32-year-old who missed three MLB seasons, entered the year with a negative career WAR, and then mowed down guys like prime Joe Nathan? Simple: assume regression. Now, Szymborski points out that Stewart’s underlying numbers—mainly a 20% swinging-strike rate on all pitches and a 60.6% contact rate on swings—are hard to fake, giving legitimate credence to his success. Still, it’s going to take a few years for any projection system to believe in him. 

(You can essentially say the same thing about Justin Topa, who didn’t shed rookie eligibility until his age-32 (!!!) season. How do you project something that almost never happens?)

Everything passes the smell test here. Minnesota’s big three look solid, but their back-end depth is a little scary, and the sleeping dragon nestled in the back of their bullpen should drive what appears to be a deep unit.

If you would like to see any of this PECOTA stuff yourself, consider heading over to Baseball Prospectus's website to subscribe and read some of the best baseball writing in the business. Their alumni include Brandon Warne and Aaron Gleeman, and our editor, Matthew Trueblood, writes pieces for them as well. No one told me to write this; I truly believe they are one the best resources for analytical and creative baseball thinking currently in operation.

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What stands out most to you in these projections? Where would you place more faith, or less? Spark a discussion in the comments, below.

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[jorgenswest]

Thanks. It leaves me wondering about…

1. Do the Twins need to have short leashes on one season outliers like Topa and Stewart? Topa has options so that is easier.
2. Are the WARPs of Funderburk and Canterino lower due to less projected playing time? They are both at an age where if they show they are among the Twins top 6 relievers they need to be on the roster over the stock pile of relievers in their 30s the Twins have recently acquired. 

 

[DJL44]

With most pitchers ERA projecting better than FIP it must be assuming good defense behind these pitchers.

[Matt Braun]

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Thanks. It leaves me wondering about…

1. Do the Twins need to have short leashes on one season outliers like Topa and Stewart? Topa has options so that is easier.
2. Are the WARPs of Funderburk and Canterino lower due to less projected playing time? They are both at an age where if they show they are among the Twins top 6 relievers they need to be on the roster over the stock pile of relievers in their 30s the Twins have recently acquired. 

 

For number 2: Canterino is projected for about 25 innings, and Funderburk is at 29. Kody's projected ERA and FIP are quite good (3.91 and 3.82), so, yes, their totals are related to innings. 

[TopGunn#22]

Jorgenswest makes good points.  The "upside" of what Topa and Stewart could provide this bullpen is elite.  The downside is that nobody saw them doing what they did last year.  Are they one-hit-wonders?  Or could they string a couple of similar seasons together?

I think Pecota is being way too pessimistic for Funderburk.  He's not going to be an All Star but I think he will be pretty good.  Better than what Pecota is projecting him for now.  The fact that Pecota has ANY projection for Matt Canterino is thrilling for me.  We might actually be able to see this guy pitch in the major leagues.

I'm kind of blown away by the Rick Wise comp for DeSclafani.  THAT Rick Wise?  The one the Cardinals traded Steve Carlton for?!?!  Wise was a pretty solid pitcher in his day.  If the Twins got Rick Wise production out of their #5 spot in the rotation that would be pretty solid.

But I guess I'm most excited about Ryan and Ober.  Those are pretty solid projections.  I'd take them in heartbeat.  And actually, if you look at how similar Paddack's ERA and FIP are, I'd take that in a heartbeat as well.  This would be the best pitching staff in the division, even if Tristen McKenzie and Shane Bieber come back and throw well for Cleveland.  

[TopGunn#22]

Just saw Matt Braun's post.  Matt, don't you think Funderburk will throw closer to 70 innings?  29 seems awfully low.  I get that Canterino is a Wild Card, but Funderburk is supposed to be our #1 LHP out of the pen all year, isn't he?  

[jmlease1]

I would be thrilled to have 3 of the top 40 starters in MLB. We will win a lot of games that way if they stay healthy.

I think the bullpen looks strong to start the season, but relievers are fungible enough for all but the absolute best (like Duran) that it's hard to be sure. and projection can be challenging. I do think we have solid reinforcements ready to go as well, though so if some of them show signs of not really having it we're pretty well positioned to adjust.

We will miss Sonny Gray, who was a bulldog and threw a lot of great innings for us, but it's not like it was 2-3 years ago when we had 2 starters and prayer going into the season.

[Matt Braun]

24 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Just saw Matt Braun's post.  Matt, don't you think Funderburk will throw closer to 70 innings?  29 seems awfully low.  I get that Canterino is a Wild Card, but Funderburk is supposed to be our #1 LHP out of the pen all year, isn't he?  

I don't know. I think the trouble is that Funderburk has options remaining, and projection systems have no idea what to do with a guy who isn't firmly entrenched in the roster. It's probably assuming that Thielbar and Okert will net the lion's share of lefty innings. 

[Matt Braun]

28 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Jorgenswest makes good points.  The "upside" of what Topa and Stewart could provide this bullpen is elite.  The downside is that nobody saw them doing what they did last year.  Are they one-hit-wonders?  Or could they string a couple of similar seasons together?

I think Pecota is being way too pessimistic for Funderburk.  He's not going to be an All Star but I think he will be pretty good.  Better than what Pecota is projecting him for now.  The fact that Pecota has ANY projection for Matt Canterino is thrilling for me.  We might actually be able to see this guy pitch in the major leagues.

I'm kind of blown away by the Rick Wise comp for DeSclafani.  THAT Rick Wise?  The one the Cardinals traded Steve Carlton for?!?!  Wise was a pretty solid pitcher in his day.  If the Twins got Rick Wise production out of their #5 spot in the rotation that would be pretty solid.

But I guess I'm most excited about Ryan and Ober.  Those are pretty solid projections.  I'd take them in heartbeat.  And actually, if you look at how similar Paddack's ERA and FIP are, I'd take that in a heartbeat as well.  This would be the best pitching staff in the division, even if Tristen McKenzie and Shane Bieber come back and throw well for Cleveland.  

I'm glad you mentioned Rick Wise because there's an important caveat I should have mentioned with the comps: they're all based on age. So when you see "Rick Wise," PECOTA isn't talking about the All-Star, but rather, the mid-30s Wise who was useful but certainly not the guy he was a few years prior. 

[TopGunn#22]

Just read the post about who should be the Twins 8th guy in the bullpen.  WOW, I didn't realize how many dudes we signed to be possible pieces in the pen.  NOW I understand why Funderburk, who I thought would easily pitch 50 innings and quite possibly 70-75 is only projected for 29.  We have all sorts of major league experienced guys, one of whom is the lefty Okert, just acquired by from the Marlins for Nick Gordon.  

Funderburk having options obviously means he will probably begin the season back in St. Paul.  I loved what I saw out of him last year, but like Louis Varland, toiling in St. Paul to begin the season seems highly likely.

Yeah, the Rick Wise comp really speaks to a career comparison more than a single season.  If I remember, the Cards traded Carlton for Wise prior to the 1972 season.  Carlton wins the Cy Young in one of the best season ANY pitcher has ever had.  Wise was solid for the Cards in 1972 but he didn't stay in St. Louis long after that.   

[2wins87]

35 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Just saw Matt Braun's post.  Matt, don't you think Funderburk will throw closer to 70 innings?  29 seems awfully low.  I get that Canterino is a Wild Card, but Funderburk is supposed to be our #1 LHP out of the pen all year, isn't he?  

Thielbar is supposed to be the #1 lefty if he continues to stave off decline.  It seems like Okert will be the second lefty for now, and Staumont might have the inside track for the last bullpen spot since he is on a major league contract, and Alcala is as well.  There is a good chance Funderburk starts in AAA.

I would hope Funderburk will still get 50-60 innings and there is probably a reasonably open path to it.  Unless Staumont looks great, I have a feeling they might treat any lingering pain or discomfort as a reason to IL him for more rest and work behind the scenes.  He also does have an option and could just be sent to AAA.  Alcala could be treated similarly, but he also has an option for next year so they will probably want to evaluate him against major league hitters.  I'd say Funderburk is competing most directly with those two, and is the most easily stashed, or at least cheapest to stash.  I would assume there will be openings early and often, but I kind of think Funderburk is the 9th or 10th arm on the bullpen depth chart right now.  Like Varland, he's in the plans for unplanned events.

 

[jorgenswest]

14 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

I'm glad you mentioned Rick Wise because there's an important caveat I should have mentioned with the comps: they're all based on age. So when you see "Rick Wise," PECOTA isn't talking about the All-Star, but rather, the mid-30s Wise who was useful but certainly not the guy he was a few years prior. 

Too add…

Rick Wise at 34 had an ERA 8% above league average with 27 starts. That would be probably be OK. He was also acquired in the off-season before that 34 year old season. He was coming off two healthy seasons with more than 30 starts so it looked like he would be more reliable. The Padres signed Wise to a 5 year deal through age 38. By age 36 he was out of baseball. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Jorgenswest makes good points.  The "upside" of what Topa and Stewart could provide this bullpen is elite.  The downside is that nobody saw them doing what they did last year.  Are they one-hit-wonders?  Or could they string a couple of similar seasons together?

 

Topa did it for a full season.  Add in that he fundamentally changed a pitch and his approach in 2022.  It took hold in 2023.  I have much more confidence in Topa duplicating his season that Stewart.  However, when Stewart was in last year, he looked damn good.  Personally I think both do well,  which is good, as I expect decline from Thielbar.  We have lots of arms in the bullpen to fill in spots.  

[tony&rodney]

The lower numbers for Funderburk may well be due to uncertainty of his appearances/innings due to options. The same can be said for Varland. I'm hoping with the depth of the pen that the Twins choose the best pitchers for their staff.

The Twins opened last year with Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Ober had a great camp but it would have been rare to choose him over a returning, healthy, accomplished veteran. That decision made sense. This is not the situation this year. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are the returning, healthy, accomplished vets now. That leaves two rotation spots. The Twins are invested in Paddack for the #5 SP position. He will need to have his starts and innings monitored. There isn't any reason to not make the #4 SP spot a competition in camp. The Twins should be playing to win.

[jkcarew]

I seriously doubt DeSclafani is going to hit anything close to 6 home runs this year.

[jkcarew]

23 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I seriously doubt DeSclafani is going to hit anything close to 6 home runs this year.

But the good news…come to think of it…

We should be able to trade him even up for today’s equivalent of 27-year old Steve Carlton!

[DocBauer]

Don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth as these are mostly really nice projections, but I like Ober just a little more than PECOTA. A few points higher, nothing dramatic. And I might like Paddack just a couple points higher as well as I'm trusting in the change to his previous breaking ball the Twins began in 2022 when they acquired him. Again, just a couple points higher, nothing dramatic.

I think the only thing that's really debatable here is Stewart and Topa. But the reasoning behind the projections is logical. They both had great seasons. Just go out and do it again. 

I'm going to HOPE for better from DeScalfini OR Varland. That means Varland is really establishing himself and doing well, or that DeScalfini is feeling good and looks like he did early last year, and close to his 2021 form. 

Otherwise, this all looks really good. Certainly, the pen numbers are going to have the most variation, and that makes sense.

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/14/2024 at 9:56 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Just saw Matt Braun's post.  Matt, don't you think Funderburk will throw closer to 70 innings?  29 seems awfully low.  I get that Canterino is a Wild Card, but Funderburk is supposed to be our #1 LHP out of the pen all year, isn't he?  

Thielbar will be the higher leverage LH, if healthy. Okert will probably displace Funderburk out of Spring Training since Funderburk has multiple options.

70 innings is an every other day guy……..even if in the staff all year that’s a lot of relief innings. Part-time in the Show…….25-40 innings seems to be a reasonable change.

I like Funderburk a bunch - hope he competes well next month and earns a spot for Opening Day. Doubtful though after the Gordon trade.

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/14/2024 at 9:54 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Jorgenswest makes good points.  The "upside" of what Topa and Stewart could provide this bullpen is elite.  The downside is that nobody saw them doing what they did last year.  Are they one-hit-wonders?  Or could they string a couple of similar seasons together?

I think Pecota is being way too pessimistic for Funderburk.  He's not going to be an All Star but I think he will be pretty good.  Better than what Pecota is projecting him for now.  The fact that Pecota has ANY projection for Matt Canterino is thrilling for me.  We might actually be able to see this guy pitch in the major leagues.

I'm kind of blown away by the Rick Wise comp for DeSclafani.  THAT Rick Wise?  The one the Cardinals traded Steve Carlton for?!?!  Wise was a pretty solid pitcher in his day.  If the Twins got Rick Wise production out of their #5 spot in the rotation that would be pretty solid.

But I guess I'm most excited about Ryan and Ober.  Those are pretty solid projections.  I'd take them in heartbeat.  And actually, if you look at how similar Paddack's ERA and FIP are, I'd take that in a heartbeat as well.  This would be the best pitching staff in the division, even if Tristen McKenzie and Shane Bieber come back and throw well for Cleveland.  

The trade for Carlton was first thing I thought of - a little vengeance involved in that trade from the Cardinal’s Ownership but Wise was a good pitcher…….faded over following years, maybe it’s a year 10 comparison???

[JD-TWINS]

FanGraphs has the Twins Pen as best in the AL.

Starters wins last year are these, respectively:

Lopez-Maeda-Gray-Ober-Ryan-Varland-Mahle

11 - 6 - 8 - 8 - 11 - 4 - 1 = 49 wins from the core starters……Bullpen is a big key to Team’s success, the & one independent source above, before Okert was acquired, thinks Twins have #3 Pen in the game & #1 in the AL. That’s big!