Here’s How Brooks Lee Can Earn the Twins an Extra Draft Pick

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

A whole year is 172 days on the MLB roster or IL. The season is 187 days so you have basically 2 weeks that you can not be on the roster or IL and get credit for a full year. So to be eligible for the extra draft pick a player needs to be up within the first 2 weeks of the season and then stay on the roster enough of the rest of the year to not go beyond those 15 days of cushion you get.

The 172 days is in regard to the 26 man roster correct? Not the 40 man roster? So in what way is E Rod's clock ticking at this point? In his case he is only using up an option. Correct? But not accruing service time towards arb and FA.

[chpettit19]

Just now, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The 172 days is in regard to the 26 man roster correct? Not the 40 man roster? So in what way is E Rod's clock ticking at this point? In his case he is only using up an option. Correct? But not accruing service time towards arb and FA.

Yes, 26-man roster. His "clock" at this point is just option years, correct. He won't start accruing service time until he debuts. There's another way, but I won't risk jinxing him by mentioning it. But for right now the only "concern" with him is he's going to start using up his options this year so they'll want him to debut and look like he can make it within the next couple seasons before he gets to that Gordon spot where he's out of options and they aren't sure about him.

[Fatbat]

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think we should take that quote so literally. They're not actually going to ask Lee where he wants to play. His play is going to do the speaking, and so far it hasn't said "I'm ready for the majors." There's a pretty small chance Lee sees the majors in the first month of the season, I think.

The last 16 games at AAA at the end of ‘23 said he is ready. Its also been reported that he has done extensive work this offseason in fort myers so at this point, his spring training work will probably speak more to where he plays in april. 

[Major League Ready]

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

The last 16 games at AAA at the end of ‘23 said he is ready. Its also been reported that he has done extensive work this offseason in fort myers so at this point, his spring training work will probably speak more to where he plays in april. 

I doubt the Twins would listen to the voice of a 16 game stretch.  This is not a SSS, it's tiny.  

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The last 16 games at AAA at the end of ‘23 said he is ready. Its also been reported that he has done extensive work this offseason in fort myers so at this point, his spring training work will probably speak more to where he plays in april. 

I'd expect everyone in the Twins org to have put in work during the offseason, and I really hope the team is going off far more than 16 games. A .231 batting average in September (17 games) in AAA doesn't scream "I'm ready" to me. Not saying the door should be completely closed for him to start the year, but there's a lot left for him to prove in the minors. 

[wabene]

C'mon now Falvey was obviously saying that it was Brooks Lee's playing that would say when he is ready. His play is not there yet, he was just quoted as saying just that himself. The roster is not ready for him either. The ideal scenario for those who are eager to see Lee is that an injury and his play in AAA, dictate that he takes a full time, but temporary role for an injured regular. Of course in that case he could possibly play so well he never gets sent back down. 

[rationalfan]

It is nice to be able to really think about this topic compared to the days when the Twins would clearly be holding a player back just to manipulate team control ($$$).  This team is making moves to compete now.  The best opening day roster has Lewis, Correa, Julien, Kiriloff, Santana and Farmer for infield/DH.  Lee has not shown that he is picked up everything he can in the minors.  He will develop better playing every day at AAA than platooning, or even worse...off the bench, in the majors.

[FlyingFinn]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

I just don't see the Twins having Lee starting the year with the MLB team if Jullien, Lewis and Correa are all healthy as there isn't room for him to play everyday.

Agreed.

Now, what if the Twins are healthy and doing well in the infield for most of the year and Lee is doing well in St. Paul? There is a point where the team keeps him at AAA long enough to make sure he still qualifies for ROY in 2025. (I'm not quite up on the rules that eliminates rookie status)

Great problem to have for 2025 if this all happens in 2024. Of Lee, Julien, Correa and Lewis, none are first basemen (Julien's played a bit there) and only one could play in the OF. This would be a super problem to have next off-season.

[PatPfund]

Lee isn't Bryant. Plus, I suspect Martin is ahead of Lee and for pretty good reason (he plays OF including CF, which Lee does not, and that's where the Twins are more in need). It would probably take a major Correa injury to get Lee up at the end of Spring Training.

[Fatbat]

Of course 3 weeks of stats is insignificant. What is significant is playing in AAA at 22yo. As previously stated, spring training will dictate where Lee plays in April. Hopefully he isn’t promoted just because some vet is hurt. Thats not a good scenario for anyone. All I am saying is don’t be surprised to see Lee at Target Field sooner rather than later. 

[Heiny]

19 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Lee isn't Bryant. Plus, I suspect Martin is ahead of Lee and for pretty good reason (he plays OF including CF, which Lee does not, and that's where the Twins are more in need). It would probably take a major Correa injury to get Lee up at the end of Spring Training.

God forbid, but I think a major injury to Correa, Lewis or Julien and a good spring by Lee gives him a chance.  But let's hope he just gets to spend as much time in AAA as he needs.  No need right now to rush him.  Better to be safe anyway considering we are very well set currently.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

I think it is just the opposite.  The worst teams get the highest draft picks and the higher draft picks theoretically have the best chance of being named ROY.

But the good (rich) teams should have fewer qualms about service time as they can afford to extend or retain the players should they reach free agency.

If Jackson Holliday is interested in hitting free agency ASAP and chasing a 400M deal, Baltimore will likely have no shot at keeping him and will lose him a year early.

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, Heiny said:

God forbid, but I think a major injury to Correa, Lewis or Julien and a good spring by Lee gives him a chance.  But let's hope he just gets to spend as much time in AAA as he needs.  No need right now to rush him.  Better to be safe anyway considering we are very well set currently.

An injury might give him a chance, but they already have Farmer and Castro on the roster and this team loves to defer to the vets. Lee isn't going to make the opening day roster to sit behind those two, so I think for him to make the team, you'd need an injury to Correa/Lewis/Julien AND an injury to Castro/Farmer.

And, obviously Lee would need to be raking in spring training.

And even then, Martin is already on the 40-man, as is Miranda and Severino should the injury be to Lewis, and Prato can play every position and has been better offensively than Lee while being less hyped thus less of a concern in regards to wasting an option or triggering service time. 

Honestly, I think the odds of Emmanuel Rodriguez making the opening day roster is higher. He is on the 40-man and hits right handed. He'd likely need fewer injuries ahead of him to be a consideration. 

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

An injury might give him a chance, but they already have Farmer and Castro on the roster and this team loves to defer to the vets. Lee isn't going to make the opening day roster to sit behind those two, so I think for him to make the team, you'd need an injury to Correa/Lewis/Julien AND an injury to Castro/Farmer.

And, obviously Lee would need to be raking in spring training.

And even then, Martin is already on the 40-man, as is Miranda and Severino should the injury be to Lewis, and Prato can play every position and has been better offensively than Lee while being less hyped thus less of a concern in regards to wasting an option or triggering service time. 

Honestly, I think the odds of Emmanuel Rodriguez making the opening day roster is higher. He is on the 40-man and hits right handed. He'd likely need fewer injuries ahead of him to be a consideration. 

E-Rod hits left handed.    E-Rod video

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Agreed.

Now, what if the Twins are healthy and doing well in the infield for most of the year and Lee is doing well in St. Paul? There is a point where the team keeps him at AAA long enough to make sure he still qualifies for ROY in 2025. (I'm not quite up on the rules that eliminates rookie status)

Great problem to have for 2025 if this all happens in 2024. Of Lee, Julien, Correa and Lewis, none are first basemen (Julien's played a bit there) and only one could play in the OF. This would be a super problem to have next off-season.

Thought about this a lot, regarding who plays where. I think Lee would make an excellent 3B. But Lewis is settling in there quite nicely, so I think Lee ends up at 2B, backs up SS...probably along with Lewis...and maybe plays a little 3B too. Julien should end up splitting time between 2B/1B/DH.

I think come 2025 there is a CHANCE Lewis moves to LF, Lee takes over 3B, Julien stays at 2B full time, Wallner obviously moves to RF. Repeat, I think there's a CHANCE of it happening, but I'm skeptical.

What's also a little interesting to me is do they replace Farmer with someone next year? I mean, if Lee and Lewis can both play SS, and Castro can play all across the INF, and you still have Julien as an occasional 2B, do they need another utility player? If so, would that be someone like Helman, Prato, Schobel, or even Keaschal? 

Just my mind wandering.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Thought about this a lot, regarding who plays where. I think Lee would make an excellent 3B. But Lewis is settling in there quite nicely, so I think Lee ends up at 2B, backs up SS...probably along with Lewis...and maybe plays a little 3B too. Julien should end up splitting time between 2B/1B/DH.

I think come 2025 there is a CHANCE Lewis moves to LF, Lee takes over 3B, Julien stays at 2B full time, Wallner obviously moves to RF. Repeat, I think there's a CHANCE of it happening, but I'm skeptical.

What's also a little interesting to me is do they replace Farmer with someone next year? I mean, if Lee and Lewis can both play SS, and Castro can play all across the INF, and you still have Julien as an occasional 2B, do they need another utility player? If so, would that be someone like Helman, Prato, Schobel, or even Keaschal? 

Just my mind wandering.

I wonder if they'll do something where they're basically adding the DH spot to the IF and rotating Correa, Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, and Lee through there come 2025 when you'd hope all 5 are demanding everyday run with their play. That would allow for someone like Castro to be just the in game injury backup across the whole IF while you're able to give them all "half off days" in the DH spot regularly and not ever have to take one of them out of the lineup completely if they're all core lineup pieces like we hope. That obviously puts Miranda in a tough spot, but maybe he's one of the 5 instead of Kirilloff if Kirilloff ends another year on the IL. Or it allows you to make a trade of 1 of them for OF or SP help after 2024. I'm a proponent of Lewis to the OF if Miranda and Lee both establish themselves as legit bats, but I'm also skeptical it's an actual possibility (I saw him on MLB Network last week and he actually said his spot at 3B isn't totally locked in- can't remember his exact words, though).

My hope is that they have to make some tough decisions (we haven't even gotten into Emma or Jenkins blowing the roof off things in 2024) after the 2024 season. Depth will always win out so I doubt they really look to move anyone within the next year or 2, but it's not hard to see a situation where they have 10 or 11 guys who deserve everyday play by 2025/2026. What a great problem to have if that's what comes, though! Enjoy these discussions far more than the ones where we're trying to find even 5 or 6 guys who deserve everyday play like we've seen here far too often the last 30 years.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

The last 16 games at AAA at the end of ‘23 said he is ready. Its also been reported that he has done extensive work this offseason in fort myers so at this point, his spring training work will probably speak more to where he plays in april. 

His OPS by month last year went .780, .776, .794 (so far nothing spectacular at AA), 1.033 (ok, call him up to AAA), .656, .829. Yes, September was a marked improvement, but the whole year doesn't scream out '26 man MLB roster.' My guess is he spends at least a month in St. Paul (barring injuries, of course).

[EGFTShaw]

Well, this got people talking. 👍

That said, thanks for the information regarding PPI rule.

My take is not about Lee, but about the rule itself.  It seems too limited to me.

The criteria are very extreme. Why not have a broader set of criteria that allows for a pick after each of the first 5 rounds or something.

That way you incentivize teams to promote players who are close to MLB ready which may benefit them more than team control over the salaries.

As a business I see the rationale of what happen to Bryant, but as a human I think it downright disgraceful.

• Excited to see how Buxton's knee holds up.
• Excited to see how certain pitchers perform this year; Ryan, Ober, Pollack and Varland.
• Looking forward to see how far Jenkins advances this year.
• Also looking forward to see what Festa and the pitchers at Wichita perform.

Last Play Ball!!!!

PS - I want to see the Twins Run 50% more than last year and strike out 25% less.

 

[DocBauer]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I wonder if they'll do something where they're basically adding the DH spot to the IF and rotating Correa, Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, and Lee through there come 2025 when you'd hope all 5 are demanding everyday run with their play. That would allow for someone like Castro to be just the in game injury backup across the whole IF while you're able to give them all "half off days" in the DH spot regularly and not ever have to take one of them out of the lineup completely if they're all core lineup pieces like we hope. That obviously puts Miranda in a tough spot, but maybe he's one of the 5 instead of Kirilloff if Kirilloff ends another year on the IL. Or it allows you to make a trade of 1 of them for OF or SP help after 2024. I'm a proponent of Lewis to the OF if Miranda and Lee both establish themselves as legit bats, but I'm also skeptical it's an actual possibility (I saw him on MLB Network last week and he actually said his spot at 3B isn't totally locked in- can't remember his exact words, though).

My hope is that they have to make some tough decisions (we haven't even gotten into Emma or Jenkins blowing the roof off things in 2024) after the 2024 season. Depth will always win out so I doubt they really look to move anyone within the next year or 2, but it's not hard to see a situation where they have 10 or 11 guys who deserve everyday play by 2025/2026. What a great problem to have if that's what comes, though! Enjoy these discussions far more than the ones where we're trying to find even 5 or 6 guys who deserve everyday play like we've seen here far too often the last 30 years.

Agree it's a nice "problem" to have in regard to too many good options.

I also agree that I think DH will primarily go through the various INF options. But with Buxton, Wallner, and the likes of Emma and Jenkins...possibly Rosario...arriving over the next couple of years, that OF is going to get pretty crowded as well. You figure 4 true OF, 4 true INF, a pair of Catchers, and let's say Castro continues to stick as a super utility player. That's 11. I'd say there's a reasonable chance a 5th true OF is kept so Castro is less tied down to any specific area of the club, and can literally play anywhere but catcher. That's 1 spot left to fill.

Could that be Miranda? Like you, I'm starting to have a hard time seeing a spot for him, even if he's 100% and re-discovers his 2021-2022 self. He might fit as a 1B/3B/PH/DH and get semi-regular playing time. But it's also possible Severino fills that role. It's also possible what the Twins will want is another super utility guy to replace Farmer, who's probably done after this year, to pair with Castro. I'm thinking Schobel or Keaschall might be that 13th guy. 

Wow! Just tantalizing!

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Agree it's a nice "problem" to have in regard to too many good options.

I also agree that I think DH will primarily go through the various INF options. But with Buxton, Wallner, and the likes of Emma and Jenkins...possibly Rosario...arriving over the next couple of years, that OF is going to get pretty crowded as well. You figure 4 true OF, 4 true INF, a pair of Catchers, and let's say Castro continues to stick as a super utility player. That's 11. I'd say there's a reasonable chance a 5th true OF is kept so Castro is less tied down to any specific area of the club, and can literally play anywhere but catcher. That's 1 spot left to fill.

Could that be Miranda? Like you, I'm starting to have a hard time seeing a spot for him, even if he's 100% and re-discovers his 2021-2022 self. He might fit as a 1B/3B/PH/DH and get semi-regular playing time. But it's also possible Severino fills that role. It's also possible what the Twins will want is another super utility guy to replace Farmer, who's probably done after this year, to pair with Castro. I'm thinking Schobel or Keaschall might be that 13th guy. 

Wow! Just tantalizing!

You forgot Martin, Doc.  He is the guy I am really pulling for because it would be a huge plus if he steps up while we are waiting for E-Rod and others to find their way to the show.  Especially with the need to back-up Buck.  Lee and Martin making their way to the ML level impacts the other roster spots as well.  Farmer's departure would be covered.   They could go to a system like Chpettit19 suggested where Lee/Lewis/Correa/Julien and Kirilloff play everyday with one of them DHing.  If one is injured, they have an "extra" infielder.  That's especially effective with Castro and Martin in utility roles.  Holy crap that's a deep team with great positional flexibility.

[Guest]

The FO may not be done dealing, but barring S/T injuries the opening day roster is nearly set.  One must conclude they think they would rather take the mid-season callup strategy this year rather than take a long-shot at a rookie award in what appears to be a very competitive field this year.

[old nurse]

The Twins will always need to accumulate high quality prospects. Getting another first round draft pick for nothing would be a Twins thing to do Lee might make the opening day roster for that purpose. If he shines, great. If he doesn’t, AAA and the year clock gets put back on hold.  If the FO didn’t think he was going to be a quality major league player they would have traded him like they did Steer.  Risk/reward. You do have to admit the front office has taken risks in trades. Could he win ROY. It is not out of the question. He would probably have to hit about .290 with 40 doubles and a few HR (basically the second coming of Joe Mauer). Wether the computer data of his hit metrics indicates he could do that are not requires a geek to come up with that answer. 

This might be the first idea by Ted I praised. 

[DocBauer]

34 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You forgot Martin, Doc.  He is the guy I am really pulling for because it would be a huge plus if he steps up while we are waiting for E-Rod and others to find their way to the show.  Especially with the need to back-up Buck.  Lee and Martin making their way to the ML level impacts the other roster spots.  Farmer's departure would be covered.   They could go to a system like Chpettit19 suggested where Lee/Lewis/Correa/Julien and Kirilloff play everyday with one of them DHing.  If one is injured, they have an "extra" infielder.  That's especially effective with Castro and Martin in utility roles.  Holy crap that's a deep team with great positional flexibility.

Somebody slap me upside the head! Can't believe I forgot Martin. Thank you for the correction.

[terrydactyls]

All this talk about who should/could be the DH and no one has mentioned Buxton. I think there is a good chance he is the DH at least 40% of the season.

[gagu]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I think it is just the opposite.  The worst teams get the highest draft picks and the higher draft picks theoretically have the best chance of being named ROY.

I agree. And the worst teams are also more likely to have a position available that would allow a rookie to break in as a full-season regular on opening day..                                                                                            .

[Paul Walerius]

I'm all for it if he can perform, but .237 at St Paul doesn't scream that he is ready.    That being said guys like Farmer or Santana aren't necessarily locks to make the roster, IMO.   They are getting paid a reasonable amount that wouldn't really be tough to DFA if Severino, Miranda, Martin and Lee have a great spring.   

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, Karbo said:

I don't see Lee making the opening day roster as things shape up so far. There just isn't a position for him to play at this time. I could see next season Jenkins with a chance though.

Probably true.  That being said, he doesn't have to be on the opening day roster to win the ROY.  We make such a big deal about the opening day roster.  Actually means very little.  Someone could get hurt in very short order.  Or under perform.  Kid just needs to be ready when the opportunity comes along and run with it when it does. 

[Cody Christie]

23 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The 172 days is in regard to the 26 man roster correct? Not the 40 man roster? So in what way is E Rod's clock ticking at this point? In his case he is only using up an option. Correct? But not accruing service time towards arb and FA.

Rodriguez would be eligible again next year if he hasn't made his debut and is still ranked highly on prospect lists. 

[Otaknam]

Thanks for the clarification in how the new rules work.  Adding an incentive to bring a rookie to the major league roster and not play that waiting game is a win win . Can’t wait to see Lee this season! The Twins pipeline of potential impact players: Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Festa, and coming soon Raya, Jenkins, Gabriel Gonzalez and ERodriquez. If the starting pitching holds up it should be a fun run for the next five years.