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Mike Sixel

By Mike Sixel
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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ashbury
ashbury

I think the idea, and it's not exactly how other commentators grade trades, is that the Twins reallocated some surplus into an area needing shoring up, and maximized the realistic return on a guy like

jorgenswest
jorgenswest

If you missed it a few weeks ago Baseball America had their podcast about the Twins prospects. I just gave it a second listen. It left me so hopeful not only about Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee

chpettit19
chpettit19

That's a tough situation. They likely are platoon players (most lefties are), but they're the strong-side of a platoon so they'd be playing 75+% of the time. What's the definition of a "regular?" Feel

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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mike
2:43    The Twins have done the least work so far......what do you think they'll do first?

Jay Jaffe
2:44    They're not in bad shape. Dan published their ZiPS projections today and called them an 85-90 win team https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/
2:46    To my eyes they could use another starter and another bat to put into the 1B/corner OF/DH mix

  • 3 weeks later...
Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Fangraphs has an article about where projection systems most disagree, and agree......Here are the Twins:

(that's ERA and standard deviation)

Brock Stewart 3.19 3.45 5.13 3.9 1.05

Dan surmises the outlier here doesn't trust Stewart's K change (but, he was a starter and now he's not....)

(that's wRC+ and Std)

Carlos Correa 115.9 118.2 116.2 117.3 1.0
Edouard Julien 114.6 114.1 114.9 112.5 1.1

ERA again

Joe Ryan 4.01 4.06 3.99 4.0

0.03

Pablo López 3.68 3.52 3.63 3.6 0.08

I like those numbers where they agree! Also like the projection for Stewart for the two that agree.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projection-fight-club-2024/

 

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

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On 1/30/2024 at 5:45 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Well, even if they are iffy on the prospects, fangraphs sure likes this trade for MN

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-and-mariners-link-up-for-intriguing-swap/

Ha, I read this the other day and had a bit of whiplash. The whole article really sounded luke warm at best regarding the Twins return on the Polanco trade. Then all of a sudden the summary gives a glowing grade. The math just didn't seem to work.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Ha, I read this the other day and had a bit of whiplash. The whole article really sounded luke warm at best regarding the Twins return on the Polanco trade. Then all of a sudden the summary gives a glowing grade. The math just didn't seem to work.

I had a similar reaction....

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

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27 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Ha, I read this the other day and had a bit of whiplash. The whole article really sounded luke warm at best regarding the Twins return on the Polanco trade. Then all of a sudden the summary gives a glowing grade. The math just didn't seem to work.

 

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I had a similar reaction....

I think the idea, and it's not exactly how other commentators grade trades, is that the Twins reallocated some surplus into an area needing shoring up, and maximized the realistic return on a guy like Polanco.  If DeSclafani is as bad as his overall 2023 numbers indicate, then he's no shoring up at all - but if you share my view that he's (yet another) "when healthy" type, then he's a step in the right direction and provides value.  If Topa is a usable bullpen arm, that's value.  The two prospects are value.  It's not necessarily how everyone will grade a trade, but on a scale of "did the Twins accomplish several things when trading Polanco," I can see their grade.

Since Polanco has also slid of late into my "when healthy" pigeonhole, I can see the muted praise for Seattle's side of it.

I would have preferred packaging Polanco with additional talent, instead of being the recipient of a package, but on its own terms the trade seems worthy of respect.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Just now, ashbury said:

 

I think the idea, and it's not exactly how other commentators grade trades, is that the Twins reallocated some surplus into an area needing shoring up, and maximized the realistic return on a guy like Polanco.  If DeSclafani is as bad as his overall 2023 numbers indicate, then he's no shoring up at all - but if you share my view that he's (yet another) "when healthy" type, then he's a step in the right direction and provides value.  If Topa is a usable bullpen arm, that's value.  The two prospects are value.  It's not necessarily how everyone will grade a trade, but on a scale of "did the Twins accomplish several things when trading Polanco," I can see their grade.

Since Polanco has also slid into my "when healthy" pigeonhole, I can also see the muted praise for Seattle's side of it.

I would have preferred packaging Polanco with additional talent, instead of being the recipient of a package, but on its own terms the trade seems worthy of respect.

Oh, I get the idea, it was more how it was written until the end didn't give me "10/10" feelings.....

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

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9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Oh, I get the idea, it was more how it was written until the end didn't give me "10/10" feelings.....

I didn't read it like that.  Again, it's because he's grading differently.  In the Mariners side of the article, he was explaining that Polanco is valuable but not a star.  That kind of set the tone for the conclusion.

Suppose the trade had been Daniel Duarte for Ryan Jensen, just to pick a (ridiculous) pair of recent names in our collective consciousness.  Because both are mediocrities, one could justify not giving either team more than a "C" as a grade.  Nothing for nothing, as the baseline; if you see one as a little better than the other, award that team a "C+".  Alternatively, if you see any daylight between the two, another mode of grading might award a simple "A" to the team as having done the better job.

Since I don't know the writer from past experience, I wasn't blindsided, is all I'm saying.

tony&rodney St Paul Saints

tony&rodney

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4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Ha, I read this the other day and had a bit of whiplash. The whole article really sounded luke warm at best regarding the Twins return on the Polanco trade. Then all of a sudden the summary gives a glowing grade. The math just didn't seem to work.

Same.

Spin?

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-2-5-24/

Guest: Twins fans everywhere super excited to see the promise to reinvest the Polanco savings has netted them….a 37 year old DH
2:25    
Ben Clemens: Given the size of the savings, I’m not sure what you expected
Ben Clemens: That said, I think it’s a pretty smart move
Ben Clemens: The Twins do not spend as much as I’d like them to
Ben Clemens: but I feel like few teams do a better job of winning trades without donig the whole ‘we’ll trade you a quarter today for four dime-level prospects’ deal where you can’t help but win
Ben Clemens: and I think that they also do a good job of then integrating those trades into their team
Ben Clemens: I like where they’re headed basically

    
K DOT: All of what you said about the Twins makes it even more infuriating that they don’t spend
Ben Clemens: Oh totally

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
On 2/5/2024 at 11:50 AM, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-pittsburgh-proud-david-bednar-steps-on-the-gas-and-attacks/

Most of the way down are some words on Santana 

"Moreover, he’ll bring an unmatched level of reliability. Since debuting with Cleveland in 2010, Santana has played in 1930 games, the most of any player in baseball"

I think they are conflating reliability with durability.

RpR Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

RpR

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Posted
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2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

"Moreover, he’ll bring an unmatched level of reliability. Since debuting with Cleveland in 2010, Santana has played in 1930 games, the most of any player in baseball"

I think they are conflating reliability with durability.

By God man, I think you are right.

chpettit19 Minnesota Twins

chpettit19

Community Moderator
Posted
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25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not quite as rosy..... You should pay attention to the caveat....

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2024-pre-spring-training-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

I think this is a pretty decent projection for the central. I think the Twins are in the same win total area as last year and one of Cleveland or Detroit will "surprise" by being above .500 as well and give the Twins a run for their money. The other will be around .500 and be a pain for most of the season. KC will get to 70+ wins and will play a big role in the division based on how competitive they are with each contender. And Chicago will continue to be a dumpster fire despite carrying maybe the best player in the division.

A lot of young talent in this division. Will be fun to see who's steps up and can take charge of the division the next few years.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Andy Dufresne: Are you bullish on Correa exceeding his projections now that the foot (and septum) are fixed?

Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mildly so? I tend to be skeptical over “OK, this fixes the injury thing for good” things

 

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