The Table Setter, Jan. 8: And Teoscar Goes To...

[Ted Schwerzler]

While the Twins have been hesitant to dive fully into the MLB offseason, there was some notable action over the weekend. With just over a month until pitchers and catchers report, teams continue to work on their 2024 plans.

Image courtesy of © Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

This weekend saw a couple of sizable trades and a few more free agents come off the board. So far, Minnesota has agreed to just a single major-league deal, and that came in under $1 million. There are more than a few storylines worth catching up on, however.

Twins Address the Pen
While the largest hole for Rocco Baldelli’s club is arguably the starting rotation, they have focused on the bullpen to this point in free agency. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle’s production must be made up, but so far, the only notable arms acquired have included Josh Staumont, A.J. Alexy, and the recently claimed Ryan Jensen. Only Staumont’s deal is guaranteed, and while the Twins don’t yet have a full 40-man roster, they could look to keep Jensen around but pass him through waivers.

Since Derek Falvey took over, the Twins have been highly conservative when it comes to adding relievers. None has been given a larger deal than Addison Reed’s $16.75 million over two years, and often the group is constructed of one-year projects and minor-league signings. Finding another Brock Stewart for 2024 would be great, but the organization can’t give away another Danny Coulombe or Jeff Hoffman.

Starting Pitchers on the Move
A couple of big-name starting pitchers found new homes over the weekend. First, Robbie Ray went to the San Francisco Giants, in exchange for both Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani. It seems plausible that the Mariners will flip DeSclafani, which would finalize their transition to youth in the rotation. While Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert are all locks, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock, and Bryan Woo are virtually ready as well. Ray gives the Giants an option sometime mid-year, but he is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The New York Mets decided to add Sean Manaea, in an effort to fill out their rotation. Steve Cohen seemed to indicate last season in discussions with Max Scherzer that the organization was going for a reset in 2024. They also parted with Justin Verlander, and need to figure out a direction before spending big again. Manaea represents a nice upside candidate, but two years and $28 million for a guy that has a 4.73 and 4.26 FIP over the past two seasons is a hefty burden. Manaea also secured the right to opt out of the deal after 2024, should he finally position himself for the huge payday that has eluded him in his first two forays into free agency.

Dodgers Keep Spending
After inking Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to huge free agent contracts and trading for Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles was not done. Sure, they won 100 games last year, but they came into the offseason as a flawed team with plenty of holes. Needing to find a power bat in the outfield, they were a good fit for free agent Teoscar Hern'andez.

Late Sunday night, the Dodgers got the deal done and handed out $23.5 million on a one-year deal. Hernandez had something of a down year in 2023 posting just a 106 OPS+, but he owned a 125 OPS+ from 2019-2022. Los Angeles gets a right-handed slugger who should easily make up for the loss of J.D. Martinez, and also extend a lineup that felt top-heavy before now. How the removal of a corner outfield option from the market helps Minnesota position Max Kepler in potential trades remains to be seen, but it can’t hurt if they want to go down that path.

Mauer Continues Positive Trend
Despite initially seeming unlikely to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, Joe Mauer has polled well thus far during his first year on the ballot. Through 125 revealed votes from the Baseball Writers Association of America, he sits at 81.6% of the vote, according to Ryan Thibodaux's tracker.

With an estimated total ballot tally just south of 400, he’ll need to sustain this momentum to stay above the 75% mark. Jason Sardell, who has often done a great job of predicting who will be enshrined when the dust settles based on early numbers, has Mauer getting enshrined through 96 percent of the simulations he runs. While Todd Helton and Mauer are evenly supported through votes currently made public, Sardell explains the Twins' ex-catcher's advantage thusly: “It's mostly because Mauer is doing much better than Helton with "Small Hall" voters. And voters like that are over-represented in the remaining set of ballots.”

We are just a few weeks away from Twins Fest (and the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown). While those dates aren’t necessarily reflective of when Minnesota must do something, it stands to reason they may want to push more of their offseason chips toward the middle. Would you have wanted the Twins to sign Hernández, given his surprisingly reasonable price tag? Was Manaea high on your list? Should Mauer be in the Hall of Fame? Join the conversation.

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[LewFordLives]

Thanks for the nice summation. Just one editing nitpick.....The sentence that begins

"Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle's production must be made up......"

Could have been shortened to....

"Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda's production must be be made up...."

[Karbo]

23.5 mil is way above "reasonable" to me. No way were the Twins going anywhere near that price tag this year. I read about so many owners complaining about losing revenue from TV contracts, yet the players get more and more money. Just my opinion, but what these guys are getting paid these days is crazy!

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Thanks for the nice summation. Just one editing nitpick.....The sentence that begins

"Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle's production must be made up......"

Could have been shortened to....

"Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda's production must be be made up...."

I view it as, Gray's production must be made up. I do think Paddack can do, at minimum, what Maeda provided in 2023 (100ish innings, about a 4 era.)

That said, I'm not at all certain 2024 Sonny Gray can match 2023 Sonny Gray.

 

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Karbo said:

23.5 mil is way above "reasonable" to me. No way were the Twins going anywhere near that price tag this year. I read about so many owners complaining about losing revenue from TV contracts, yet the players get more and more money. Just my opinion, but what these guys are getting paid these days is crazy!

MLB should bring in $11B in revenue in 2024.

[Dman]

Man the Dodgers are pushing all their chips in this year.  With Otani's deferred money they should be able to do this year after year for a while.  They are going to be a tough team to beat for quite some time.

[IndianaTwin]

57 minutes ago, Karbo said:

23.5 mil is way above "reasonable" to me. No way were the Twins going anywhere near that price tag this year. I read about so many owners complaining about losing revenue from TV contracts, yet the players get more and more money. Just my opinion, but what these guys are getting paid these days is crazy!

They particularly weren't going that high for a hitter, and particularly given that $23.5M wouldn't have gotten it done. To outbid them, they needed to go to $24M or more, depending on how far LA was willing to go. 

[JD-TWINS]

45 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Thanks for the nice summation. Just one editing nitpick.....The sentence that begins

"Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle's production must be made up......"

Could have been shortened to....

"Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda's production must be be made up...."

Mahle was part of the “depth equation” going into the season and was making around $10M so he was part of the anticipated production 

[JD-TWINS]

8 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Particularly not for a hitter, and particularly given that $23.5M wouldn't have gotten it done. To outbid them, they needed to go to $24M or more, depending on how far LA was willing to go. 

I think we agree? Why sign Teoscar Hernandez in Minnesota?

Is he a better defender than Kepler? - No.

Is he younger than Kepler? - No.

Kepler at $10M - Hernandez at $23.5M

Hernandez had 57 XBH with 26 of them HR’s in ‘23 - that’s with 625AB’s ……..211 K’s!!!

Kepler had 48 XBH with 24 of them HR’s in ‘23 - that’s with 438AB’s…………106 K’s.

Coveting Teoscar Hernandez is nuts, period. Wanting him or valuing him higher than Max Kepler is really nuts!!

[IndianaTwin]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I think we agree? Why sign Teoscar Hernandez in Minnesota?

Is he a better defender than Kepler? - No.

Is he younger than Kepler? - No.

Kepler at $10M - Hernandez at $23.5M

Hernandez had 57 XBH with 26 of them HR’s in ‘23 - that’s with 625AB’s ……..211 K’s!!!

Kepler had 48 XBH with 24 of them HR’s in ‘23 - that’s with 438AB’s…………106 K’s.

Coveting Teoscar Hernandez is nuts, period. Wanting him or valuing him higher than Max Kepler is really nuts!!

(Tweaked my post to be a little clearer -- thanks.)

[IndianaTwin]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Mahle was part of the “depth equation” going into the season and was making around $10M so he was part of the anticipated production 

And did throw 25 innings, effectively. That's not much, but it's not nothing either. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Wow!  To pay Teoscar Hernandez $23.5M is crazy.  He's a version of Max Kepler that strikes out more and doesn't play as good of defense but happens to be right-handed.  The Dodgers apparently have so much money they don't know what to do with it. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just wanted to add; I really enjoyed reading out loud "And Teoscar goes to;"

Thanks for that! Made my morning 

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Thanks for the nice summation. Just one editing nitpick.....The sentence that begins

"Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle's production must be made up......"

Could have been shortened to....

"Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda's production must be be made up...."

Hey, Mahle was a human that existed haha!

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

That said, I'm not at all certain 2024 Sonny Gray can match 2023 Sonny Gray.

 

I think the Twins wisely made that bet, and I'd worry even more about 2025 and 2026 Gray. That said, when Giolito, Wacha, and Lugo are getting what they got, $25M for Gray is hardly crazy. Just goes to show how messed up FA with early earnings stifled.

[old nurse]

It is disheartening that over the age of 30 relievers who have spent parts of 7-8 years at the major league level that still have years of arbitration eligibility left go on to have a career year after have determined they would not be useful for your bullpen,  Can’t wait for the reaction if Pagan has a career year fo the Reds 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I wish Pagan well, and he got PAID relative to what other relievers will make this offseason. I don't know that I would bet much on him having another career year after 2023, especially with moving to the bandbox in Cincy. Smart of him to add an opt out after 2024 to get another contract if he does have a great year, and/or be able to opt in for 2025 if the results in 2024 don't wield great results.

[Brandon]

17 hours ago, Karbo said:

23.5 mil is way above "reasonable" to me. No way were the Twins going anywhere near that price tag this year. I read about so many owners complaining about losing revenue from TV contracts, yet the players get more and more money. Just my opinion, but what these guys are getting paid these days is crazy!

8.5 million is deferred.  He only gets 15 million this season.  

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Dman said:

Man the Dodgers are pushing all their chips in this year.  With Otani's deferred money they should be able to this year after year for a while.  They are going to be a tough team to beat for quite some time.

I'm gonna take my Tommy Lasorda bobblehead out of storage and ask my Haitian friend to put a special voodoo curse on the Dodgers this year!

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I think we agree? Why sign Teoscar Hernandez in Minnesota?

Is he a better defender than Kepler? - No.

Is he younger than Kepler? - No.

Kepler at $10M - Hernandez at $23.5M

Hernandez had 57 XBH with 26 of them HR’s in ‘23 - that’s with 625AB’s ……..211 K’s!!!

Kepler had 48 XBH with 24 of them HR’s in ‘23 - that’s with 438AB’s…………106 K’s.

Coveting Teoscar Hernandez is nuts, period. Wanting him or valuing him higher than Max Kepler is really nuts!!

Interesting comparisons, and they are good ones. But I still keep wondering: does any other team really want Max Kepler? Seems like he is very underrated, especially compared to the salaries that lesser players are getting, but I'm still dubious that he has a lot of trade value. 

[Parfigliano]

9 hours ago, Brandon said:

8.5 million is deferred.  He only gets 15 million this season.  

Belt tightening time at casa Hernandez