What’s Next for MLB’s Offseason Now That Shohei Ohtani Has Signed?

[Cody Christie]

Shohei Ohtani agreed to the largest contract in North American sports history on Saturday. With the biggest domino falling, how will MLB’s offseason play out, and how does that impact the Twins?

 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

After weeks of rumors and speculation, Shohei Ohtani took to his own Instagram account to announce that he would sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers 10 years and a record total of $700 million. With Ohtani off the board, other moves can start happening, especially for the teams who missed out on the two-way superstar. Here are some expected moves in the weeks ahead, and some discussion of how each will affect the Twins.

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto Signs
Yamamoto is a 25-year-old pitching phenom from Japan who will likely get the second-largest contract handed out this winter. As many as seven teams have shown interest in Yamamoto, and he’s expected to sign for over $200 million. His Japanese club posted him on Nov. 21, and there is a 45-day window for him to agree to terms with an MLB team. That window runs out on Jan. 4, but many teams like to take a business break around the holidays. Will Yamamoto be off the board before Christmas? Do the Dodgers push for him to join Ohtani, or will the New York teams win the bidding war? 

2. Other Big Free Agents Come Off the Board
Outside of Yamamoto, other high-priced free agents are expected to sign now that Ohtani has picked his team. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the top remaining free-agent starters. Snell was the NL Cy Young winner after going 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA over his final 23 starts. Montgomery helped pitch Texas to a World Series title, and his postseason performance might have increased his value (2.90 ERA in six games). According to MLB Trade Rumors, Snell is projected to get seven years, $200 million, while Montgomery is predicted to get six years, $150 million. Snell rejected the qualifying offer from the Padres, so he has draft pick compensation tied to a team signing him. Montgomery was traded last season, so the Rangers couldn’t make him a qualifying offer.

On the hitter side, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman are the highest-ranked free agents. Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP, had a resurgent season in Chicago. He batted .307/.356/.525, with 29 doubles and 26 home runs in 130 games. Chapman is an elite defender at third base and posted a 108 OPS+ last season in Toronto. His offensive output has dipped over the last three seasons, but he should be able to cash in, with few other third-base options on the market. MLB Trade Rumors projected Bellinger to get 12 years and $264 million, with Chapman predicted to get six years, $150 million. Teams who missed out on Ohtani can open their checkbooks for any of these options.

3. Lower-Tier Free Agents Start to Sign
Many big-market teams will be focused on the names listed above, and lower-tier free agents must wait for the more prominent names to sign to set the market. Some teams will also offer more money to lower-tier free agents as the supply dwindles. Last season, the Twins identified Christian Vázquez early in the offseason and offered him a third year, since he had multiple two-year proposals on the table. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn were lower-ranked starting pitcher options, but the Cardinals needed pitching and offered them a little more to sign early. Teams with specific needs will start looking at the free agent cost and weigh it against trading for a player.

4. Teams Turn to Trade Options
At MLB’s Winter Meetings, Derek Falvey spoke about the Twins shopping four veteran players (Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Vázquez). He told reporters, “I think we’re still in that early feeling-out phase.” Multiple national writers have reported that there is interest in Minnesota’s trade pieces. Still, fans will need to be patient with the front office, since that has been their style in previous offseasons.

"We're always trying to be opportunistic, think of where a trade matches, where there might be opportunities to invest in a way that will help us get better," Falvey said. "We've always kind of been a team that waits out some of the market, in some spaces, and waits to see how things shake out to some degree. The team isn't made at the end of the Winter Meetings, right? This has never been a key marker for me personally or for us in general."

Falvey’s rosters are never finalized, with the front office always looking to improve. In 2022, the Twins waited until the eve of Opening Day to trade Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and Brayan Medina. Twins fans probably want to know how the roster will look for Opening Day, but this front office has continued to find ways to add pieces throughout the offseason.

Ohtani signing is the first domino, and now MLB’s offseason can start moving for the rest of the baseball world. Who will be the next free agent to sign? Which veterans will the Twins trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[tony&rodney]

Miami got their catcher today, which takes any trades with the Marlins for pitching off the board.

[Cory Engelhardt]

44 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Miami got their catcher today, which takes any trades with the Marlins for pitching off the board.

They need a lot of offense in Miami. A LOT. I wouldn’t say at all that the only position of need there is catcher

[Cory Engelhardt]

I have a question; what do people think their primary starting pitcher acquisition will look like?

A) Someone more established, with less years of control

or

B) Someone less established, with more years of control?

I kind of lean A, but I’m curious how this offseason will play out

[Cris E]

It'll probably depend on what the market offers up.  If they can get a better deal on one over the other they'll follow that rather than cling to youth or awesomeness. My guess is they want someone to slot in over Ryan/Paddack, and the thing they'll end up fussing over is how much it costs to get more or fewer years of control.  I think the price will be high because they want the big arm and the price delta will be around how long they get to keep him.

[tony&rodney]

53 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They need a lot of offense in Miami. A LOT. I wouldn’t say at all that the only position of need there is catcher

For sure, Miami still needs to upgrade their offense. I'm not sure the Twins have any players of interest. They are specifically looking for an experienced DH, SS, and 3B. While it might have been 90% of TD against trading Jeffers, it might be 10% added to that to trade Royce Lewis. Perhaps you were thinking that the Marlins would be interested in Brooks Lee? Maybe. That's it though. Their outfield is covered as is second base.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

26 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have a question; what do people think their primary starting pitcher acquisition will look like?

A) Someone more established, with less years of control

or

B) Someone less established, with more years of control?

I kind of lean A, but I’m curious how this offseason will play out

I still like Edward Cabrera, so I guess I'm going with B. Not sure what the price would be for him though. Seemed like he took a slight stepback in 2023 so may help with the pricetag.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Miami got their catcher today, which takes any trades with the Marlins for pitching off the board.

Per Heyman's tweet about the move: "Fish *aren't* done looking to upgrade..." So, take that for what it's worth.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Miami got their catcher today, which takes any trades with the Marlins for pitching off the board.

I was bummed out to hear you said that. MIA was focusing on upgrading at SS & catcher & that's the areas that they were willing to trade for one of their SPs. IMO only the offense from SS & catcher trade will land you one of these players. MIA is looking for an upgrade at catching Betancourt is not much of an upgrade. IMO it's leverage to negogiciate with serious  clubs & IMO they should be open to negociate for a catcher if the right deal comes along. FO is good at waiting for teams come to them but is really very bad when it comes to be proactive when the opportunity is there. I hope they prove me wrong. Maybe MIA'll do the same thing at SS & if don't get the offer they want. They keep all their pitchers. It's not the 1st time that it has happen. IMO MIA won't trade a SP just for a non SS/ Catcher big bat. Unless it's a pretty good deal on a CFer.

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Miami got their catcher today, which takes any trades with the Marlins for pitching off the board.

Let's hope the Twins don't feel the need to send Jeffers that way, no matter the return, will leave them shorthanded behind the plate....

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have a question; what do people think their primary starting pitcher acquisition will look like?

A) Someone more established, with less years of control

or

B) Someone less established, with more years of control?

I kind of lean A, but I’m curious how this offseason will play out

Someone with year/years of control.  Cheaper to acquire.  Cheaper to pay.  Allows time for Maki to work his magic.

[mnfireman]

21 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Someone with year/years of control.  Cheaper to acquire.  Cheaper to pay.  Allows time for Maki to work his magic.

Why not let Maki work his magic on Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland, Canterino, Festa, SWR, Headrick, etc... without giving anything up??

[jrod23]

Vent session...sorry.  When will it end?  The absurd multi-multi year contracts for players when they're already in their 30's.  Shohei...okay.  He's the best player to come through the league in possibly ever.  Jersey sales alone will make up his contract...respectively & sarcastically.  But Blake Snell.  Put him on the list of players in their 30's requesting insane contracts.  He's NOT GOING TO FULFILL WHAT THE CONTRACT IS.  Bottom line.  What player that signs this kind of deal ever fulfills?  I'll eat crow on a very select few, but come on.  Aside from a Scherzer or Verlander, there just aren't any.  These contracts are killing "small market" teams even though their owners can afford anything.  I'll digress, because I realize I'm starting to contradict myself.

[tony&rodney]

Yamamoto is 25 years old and he needs to finish his contract details within the next month, so we can expect him to sign within a week or two. From there, the contract limits  will be pretty much set which will direct those teams willing to commit big money to finalize their offers.

The trade market is so unpredictable due to the limits of risks inherent in big trades. It is likely that teams who are willing to trade pitching will wait out the free agent market to see if the demand goes up even more. January and February are months to expect some trades. Because the asking prices will be high for pitching one wonders whether some teams, such as the Twins, will sit this offseason off and go with their current squads. We should continue to see signings of minor players on a daily basis. 

[Aerodeliria]

The title of this article make me snicker...implying that the Twins had considered throwing their hat in the ring for Ohtani...well-played.

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have a question; what do people think their primary starting pitcher acquisition will look like?

A) Someone more established, with less years of control

or

B) Someone less established, with more years of control?

I kind of lean A, but I’m curious how this offseason will play out

I don't know what it'll end up actually being, but I'd guess their main target in trade will be a good, not great "veteran" with 2+ years remaining on their deal that they think can take a step forward and then they'll either try to extend them or get a QO worthy last season out of them. Maeda, Gray, Paddack, Mahle, Lopez style.

If they strike out on that plan they'll bring in a cheap, backend starter bounce back candidate and we'll all be underwhelmed or mad.

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Per Heyman's tweet about the move: "Fish *aren't* done looking to upgrade..." So, take that for what it's worth.

Thank you Matthew, for quantifying my gut feeling.

[Doctor Gast]

I expect positional players serious negociations will begin, As soon as Yamamoto signs then the SPs will start, it shouldn't be long before Yamamoto signs, It should be a grind but at least it's moving. Funny how the SPing is hinged on Yamamoto & not Snell. I don't disagree but it's weird. After all that then the Twins will start moving.

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Let's hope the Twins don't feel the need to send Jeffers that way, no matter the return, will leave them shorthanded behind the plate....

I understand your angst mnfireman because of the catching situation that this FO has gotten us into. But trading Jeffers away for a "Lopez type" SP can be easily resolved. There has been a  very good crop of MLB ready  or soon to be catchers that can be had, That with the mentoring of Vazquez anyone of them will become a better catcher than Jeffers. We must not overlook the best opportunity that we have,

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you Cody for showing Polanco's worth. His clutching hitting & walk-off hits are truly great that's even playing a good amount of the time unneccessarily hurt that also effected his defense. '24 he'll be 100% & with Paparesta supervision he should stay that way for most of the season. 

Most other teams have a glimpse of Polanco's worth but want to pay for the hurt version of Polanco & sell us a bunch of lottery tickets. We must not overlook his true value & short ourselves. I doubt we can come close to get his true value so we should not be so quick to dump him.

[mikelink45]

When will all these 10 - 12 year overpays start to catch up with the teams?  I really am glad the Twins are not in that chase for financial silliness.  Our contract with Correa is enough.  Projected 12 years for Bellinger in the article. He batted over 300 last year and in 2019.  Has anyone looked at the three years in between?  210, 165, 234.  So who are you getting? 

I hope the Twins find a SP with our trade assets but if not push those young arms. 

[Doctor Wu]

8 hours ago, jrod23 said:

Vent session...sorry.  When will it end?  The absurd multi-multi year contracts for players when they're already in their 30's.  Shohei...okay.  He's the best player to come through the league in possibly ever.  Jersey sales alone will make up his contract...respectively & sarcastically.  But Blake Snell.  Put him on the list of players in their 30's requesting insane contracts.  He's NOT GOING TO FULFILL WHAT THE CONTRACT IS.  Bottom line.  What player that signs this kind of deal ever fulfills?  I'll eat crow on a very select few, but come on.  Aside from a Scherzer or Verlander, there just aren't any.  These contracts are killing "small market" teams even though their owners can afford anything.  I'll digress, because I realize I'm starting to contradict myself.

Yes, absurd is the word. As you noted, once in a rare while, a big contract to a player in their 30s pans out (Nelson Cruz was another exception) but most of the time (80% or higher?) those contracts ended up looking very bad. Either the player is traded or released before the end of the contract, and by that time, he's lucky to even be playing. Hey, I'm an old grumpy baseball fan, but these types of big contracts being handed out to semi-good players just makes me roll my eyes. Then again, I never mastered economics. 

[AlGoreRythm]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

When will all these 10 - 12 year overpays start to catch up with the teams?  I really am glad the Twins are not in that chase for financial silliness.  Our contract with Correa is enough.  Projected 12 years for Bellinger in the article. He batted over 300 last year and in 2019.  Has anyone looked at the three years in between?  210, 165, 234.  So who are you getting? 

I hope the Twins find a SP with our trade assets but if not push those young arms. 

From my understanding Bellinger got hurt and was never right because of the injury over those 3 seasons. Last year he got right, and his performance got better.

I think he's a really good player hampered by injury, so keeping him healthy could easily make the first half of a 10-12 year contract worth it for the right team.

Not saying I'd want him on a 12 yr contract, but I think barring injury the Bellinger from last season is the Bellinger you'd be getting.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have a question; what do people think their primary starting pitcher acquisition will look like?

A) Someone more established, with less years of control

or

B) Someone less established, with more years of control?

I kind of lean A, but I’m curious how this offseason will play out

I would prefer the former but I don’t know what team is trading any pitcher that’s established, that we can afford, UNLESS they only have one year of control left. That’s not a good move for Twins.

A FA could be experienced with two or more years of commitment. Lugo is a guy that I think gives us quality & affordability. We can then trade for Option B above if we want to shed salary for value.

My broken record is making the Pen elite via trade with Brewers, we move 3-4 players or prospects, as needed, to secure Devin Williams for 2 years - $6.25M salary this year.

Winder - Alcala - Thielbar - Funderburk - Jax - Stewart - Williams - Duran would be formidable. Varland is committed as 5th/6th starter and trade pressure for a starter is greatly reduced.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I like the creative thought. I don't personally see the push to trade a lot of assets for a reliever in the offseason, but I do agree they will have to be creative in how they augment their roster. 

 

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have a question; what do people think their primary starting pitcher acquisition will look like?

A) Someone more established, with less years of control

or

B) Someone less established, with more years of control?

I kind of lean A, but I’m curious how this offseason will play out

This is the Sonny Gray trade vs Pablo Lopez trade. The second option you list costs more, higher risk, yet higher reward if successful in terms of the long term. The first option in the end requires lucky drafting., getting a player like Petty vs Cavacao. The problem is that any trade could end up like the Mahle trade where the team will have to invest more to make the trade work

[Cory Engelhardt]

I still LOVE the chance this front office took to bring in Mahle. I'd really love it if they resigned him too.

Just because he got hurt and didn't perform doesn't mean the process for acquiring him was bad. I'd do that trade again 100 out of 100 times.

[Heiny]

18 hours ago, jrod23 said:

Vent session...sorry.  When will it end?  The absurd multi-multi year contracts for players when they're already in their 30's.  Shohei...okay.  He's the best player to come through the league in possibly ever.  Jersey sales alone will make up his contract...respectively & sarcastically.  But Blake Snell.  Put him on the list of players in their 30's requesting insane contracts.  He's NOT GOING TO FULFILL WHAT THE CONTRACT IS.  Bottom line.  What player that signs this kind of deal ever fulfills?  I'll eat crow on a very select few, but come on.  Aside from a Scherzer or Verlander, there just aren't any.  These contracts are killing "small market" teams even though their owners can afford anything.  I'll digress, because I realize I'm starting to contradict myself.

When will it end you ask?  I still remember how I felt when Kirby was the first 3M per year player.  I loved Kirby, but it blew my mind!  3 MILLION DOLLARS/YEAR?????  To play baseball?   LOL,  those numbers have increased so exponentially,  that I can no longer even comprehend the dollars, just try to use the numbers comparatively.  Personally, I would think 3mil per year should still be  enough to be the highest paid player in MLB!  I worked my entire career and retired at 61 years old and in my whole life I never made  3mil.  I'm not complaining.  I've lived pretty well, but if I can find one of those 700 million dollar contracts to do anything, I think I'm just gonna pass. But, even so, I doubt that it will ever end.