Joe Mauer Hall of Fame Vote Watch

[AlwaysinModeration]

The Hall of Fame voting is underway, and while there have been countless debates on these pages about Joe’s Hall of Fame credentials, we finally have some actual, real, live votes being cast that, you know, matter.

Ryan Thibadoux does an annual tabulation of publicly available ballots; many writers post their ballots online, write articles about it, justify their votes, etc.  Thibadoux also manages to get ahold of some anonymous ballots as well.

The tracker website is here:

http://www.bbhoftracker.com

As of today, with 11 total votes cast; Joe has 8 of 11 votes, for 72.7%.  He needs 75% of the 300+ expected votes.  Beltre has 11 of 11, and Helton has a 10 of 11 (91%).  Sheffield is tied with Mauer at 72.7%, while others of note, like Billy Wagner, ARod, Andrew Jones, and Chase Utley trail.

It’s early days in the voting, but the early signs are quite encouraging.

 

[DJL44]

After 100 ballots we'll have a good idea of whether Mauer has a chance

[AlwaysinModeration]

15 votes in.  Top Ten currently;

Beltre 100%

Helton 93.3%

Mauer 80%

Sheffield 80%

Wagner 73.3%

Andruw 66.7%

Utley 60%

Beltran 53.3%

ARod 46.7%

MannyBManny 40%
 

So far, so good.  Hopefully there aren’t too many of those curmudgeonly “Zero!” voters this year.

[gunnarthor]

He might not be first ballot but he'll get in. And deservedly so.

[2wins87]

So far tracking exactly with Sheffield. 

Going into the vote I would have expected Sheffield to get close to 75% with a big bump in his final year of eligibility. But having only got 55% last year, I'm still skeptical that Sheffield will get a big enough bump, and think he'll probably fall just short.

I'll be watching to see if any gap opens up between Sheffield and Mauer.  I think pretty much every player does better on the announced ballots in the tracker than they do on the rest of the ballots.  Mauer could do better on the non-public ballots than Sheffield, as I think those voters have generally taken a harder stance against PEDs than the public ballot voters.  But I kind of think those voters would also care more about 1st ballot distinctions and may also just be more similar to past voters that have historically done a terrible job electing catchers.

I still think Mauer getting elected on his second ballot is the modal outcome, but there seems to be a solid chance that he will get in on the first ballot.

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

15 votes in.  Top Ten currently;

Beltre 100%

Helton 93.3%

Mauer 80%

Sheffield 80%

Wagner 73.3%

Andruw 66.7%

Utley 60%

Beltran 53.3%

ARod 46.7%

MannyBManny 40%
 

So far, so good.  Hopefully there aren’t too many of those curmudgeonly “Zero!” voters this year.

I'm guessing the ones that don't vote for 10 now know better than to release their ballots. Those vote totals all look high. History says that Beltre won't get 100% because lots of voters demand the player is Ted Williams or Babe Ruth to vote him in on the first ballot. Helton likely gets in, but I doubt he is anywhere near 90% either. 

Better players in Bonds and Clemmons couldn't reach 70% just last year on their final ballot and Sheffield only had 40% last year. I'd say his percentage looks to be least 20% high at the moment.

[AlwaysinModeration]

14 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

He might not be first ballot but he'll get in. And deservedly so.

While I agree that seems likely to be the ultimate outcome, which is great, “first ballot Hall of Famer” is quite the distinction.

Last year there were 8 blank ballots and 12 1-vote ballots.

[AlwaysinModeration]

25 vote mark:

Beltre, still 100%

Helton, 88% (22 votes)

Mauer, 84% (21)

Sheffield 76% (18)

———————————-

Wagner 72% (17)

Andruw Jones 68% (16)

Beltran 68% (16)

Utley 60% (14)

 

[Roaddog]

I'm a little surprised Wagner isn't doing better.

[Parfigliano]

On 12/13/2023 at 4:08 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

While I agree that seems likely to be the ultimate outcome, which is great, “first ballot Hall of Famer” is quite the distinction.

Last year there were 8 blank ballots and 12 1-vote ballots.

People that cant find one person to vote for should have their vote taken away.  Thats just "look at me" bull----.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

People that cant find one person to vote for should have their vote taken away.  Thats just "look at me" bull----.

I suspect the HoF voting has always been this way but now that we have visibility, it probably needs to change.

I have quite a bit of tolerance for dissenting ballots; voting for people you think should be in and others not, maybe having some personal quirks that others don't. We all work within a spectrum.

But there are ballots that are just absolute ****ing trash. No votes, one vote + two Phillies from a Philly beat guy (literally happened today), voting for Vizquel but leaving most of the ballot empty, it just goes on.

And these people seem to be PROUD of taking their votes so unseriously. These are the people broadcasting their votes publicly, probably either because they believe in them (wrong) or because they strive for clout (somehow even more wrong). What's even happening with the ballots we don't see?

It's probably time to change the system, what we have now has led to capriciousness and inward thinking. That's not what this is supposed to be about.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 12/20/2023 at 9:30 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I suspect the HoF voting has always been this way but now that we have visibility, it probably needs to change.

I have quite a bit of tolerance for dissenting ballots; voting for people you think should be in and others not, maybe having some personal quirks that others don't. We all work within a spectrum.

But there are ballots that are just absolute ****ing trash. No votes, one vote + two Phillies from a Philly beat guy (literally happened today), voting for Vizquel but leaving most of the ballot empty, it just goes on.

And these people seem to be PROUD of taking their votes so unseriously. These are the people broadcasting their votes publicly, probably either because they believe in them (wrong) or because they strive for clout (somehow even more wrong). What's even happening with the ballots we don't see?

It's probably time to change the system, what we have now has led to capriciousness and inward thinking. That's not what this is supposed to be about.

Good word! I had to look it up. Quite fitting

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 12/19/2023 at 9:23 PM, AlwaysinModeration said:

25 vote mark:

Beltre, still 100%

Helton, 88% (22 votes)

Mauer, 84% (21)

Sheffield 76% (18)

———————————-

Wagner 72% (17)

Andruw Jones 68% (16)

Beltran 68% (16)

Utley 60% (14)

 

50 votes in:

Beltre:  98% (not unanimous)

Helton 86%

Mauer 80%

————————-

Sheffield 74%

Wagner 72%

A Jones 66%

Beltran 62%

Utley 52%

Everyone drifting down a bit.

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Everyone drifting down a bit.

That's likely to keep happening. The final numbers will probably be lower than what we see in the tracker. People who don't release their ballots publicly tend to vote for fewer players. Mauer will need to be at 80% on Jan 22 to have a real shot.

[Trov]

On 12/20/2023 at 7:03 PM, Parfigliano said:

People that cant find one person to vote for should have their vote taken away.  Thats just "look at me" bull----.

This is not a rare occurrence historically.  Those voters are the "small" hall type guys, or they think it is their roll to make votes not first ballots, or unanimous votes.  I do not understand their thoughts, because the HOF does not say what percentage, or what year they were on ballot, or if they were in through committee or original votes.  I do not agree they should lose their right to vote taken away, I think the guys that give a vote to players like Jacque Jones should have vote take away.  Yes, Jacque Jones got 1 vote his year. There are others like him too, but I just remembered that happened.  

[Trov]

14 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

50 votes in:

Beltre:  98% (not unanimous)

Helton 86%

Mauer 80%

————————-

Sheffield 74%

Wagner 72%

A Jones 66%

Beltran 62%

Utley 52%

Everyone drifting down a bit.

Personally a little surprised at where Joe is, but as some said the later votes tend to have less names on them.  I cannot believe Beltre is not unanimous.  It had to be someone that said well unless you are one of the very few top players ever, you should not get unanimous, but who cares.  There is not like a different wing for guys that got in with 75% and guys that got in with 90% or higher or something, or even 100%. 

I do agree Joe should get in, but I am not expecting first year, but if voters look at his time as catcher and give him a break for the concussions costing him staying back there, then he may get in first year. 

[DJL44]

Everyone should be thrilled with Joe's vote totals so far. He's basically guaranteed to get elected by ranking this high immediately. If it doesn't happen this year it will happen by 2026 at the latest. Next year (2025) adds Ichiro and CC Sabathia and it is Wagner's final time on the ballot. In 2026 there is nobody special added (Cole Hamels tops the list) and if he isn't already elected Joe would be the top returning player.

[tony&rodney]

Recently I was reading an article and comments comparing Mauer and a few other players, all of whom played in the field. It was actually shocking to read words making a direct comparison in games and years played. I would humbly submit that anyone who does this has no idea of the demands of catching. If you ever played both ends of a nine inning doubleheader you still have not come close to experiencing the physicality of catching nine innings. Having thrown nine innings many times I will suggest this comes close but is still different because it is more a case of the effects on the arm which needs a few days off. I never pitched back to back nine inning games in the same day but had an idiot coach in Babe Ruth League throw me on back to back days a couple of times for seven innings. Catching is easily twice the work and more of any other position and the writers who fail to consider this show little knowledge of the game.

I'm not all crazy about who does and who does not get into the Baseball Hall of Fame but the ignorance and willful incompetence of many of these writers (those who have a vote) is rather appalling, as someone else already suggested. Why is baseball so poorly run? 

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 12/26/2023 at 7:12 PM, AlwaysinModeration said:

50 votes in:

Beltre:  98% (not unanimous)

Helton 86%

Mauer 80%

————————-

Sheffield 74%

Wagner 72%

Ten votes posted in the last 24 hours after Christmas.  Not doing a full update, but I think it’s worth noting this development in the voting pattern:

Helton 81.4%
Mauer 81.4%.

Mauer pulls even with Helton for the first time, by getting 9 of 10 ballots from 50 to 60, while Helton only got 6 of those 10.

Last year Helton fell just 11 votes short of enshrinement, with 72.2% of the vote.  His public total via the tracker last year was 78.6%, so he lost 6.4% of that public total when the actual vote totals were released.  This year so far, Helton has a net loss of one of his votes from last year—remember he only needs to add 11 measly votes to get in. Historically, if a player is right at the cusp, a bunch of voters add him to their ballot the next year and they get in the following year.

This is definitely worth tracking - if Mauer can keep even with Helton, he’s got a good shot of eking in this year on the first ballot.

 

 

 

 

[kydoty]

I swear if the balloting was made up of only casual Twins fans, Mauer wouldn’t come close to getting in.  The excuses I’ve seen fans make to not want him in the hall of fame seem endless. 
 

- He wasn’t clutch in the playoffs

- His team was bad for much of his time there (Guess Mike Trout ain’t getting in either)

- The team got good the moment he retired 

- He hit into so many double plays (93rd all time and most of the players above him are or will be hall of famers.  GIDP’s will happen when you have a long career and put the ball in play as much as he did)

- He was a singles hitter (dismissive wanking motion)

- He wasn’t a team player (WTF does that even mean?)

- His only good year was his contract year and he stopping caring when he got the contract (are you people hearing yourselves!?!?)

And yes, some of them are still so mad that he got that contract even though a Joe Mauer in his prime today would command way way more money than what he got back in 2009.  

[Parfigliano]

On 12/27/2023 at 8:29 AM, tony&rodney said:

Recently I was reading an article and comments comparing Mauer and a few other players, all of whom played in the field. It was actually shocking to read words making a direct comparison in games and years played. I would humbly submit that anyone who does this has no idea of the demands of catching. If you ever played both ends of a nine inning doubleheader you still have not come close to experiencing the physicality of catching nine innings. Having thrown nine innings many times I will suggest this comes close but is still different because it is more a case of the effects on the arm which needs a few days off. I never pitched back to back nine inning games in the same day but had an idiot coach in Babe Ruth League throw me on back to back days a couple of times for seven innings. Catching is easily twice the work and more of any other position and the writers who fail to consider this show little knowledge of the game.

I'm not all crazy about who does and who does not get into the Baseball Hall of Fame but the ignorance and willful incompetence of many of these writers (those who have a vote) is rather appalling, as someone else already suggested. Why is baseball so poorly run? 

Because too many writers had a vote pre-cellphone era and the powers that be aren't going to every take it away lest they too lose their influence.

[mnfireman]

Mauer continues to get votes!! 91 voters accounted for and he trails only Beltre.

Beltre - 89/91  97.8%

Mauer - 74/91  81.3%

Helton - 73/81  80.2%

Wagner - 70/91  76.9%

Sheffield (64/91, 70.3%), Beltran (58/91, 63.7%) and Jones (56/91, 61.5%) are the only others above 50%.

There are some very head-scratching ballots being submitted.

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Mauer continues to get votes!! 91 voters accounted for and he trails only Beltre.

Beltre - 89/91  97.8%

Mauer - 74/91  81.3%

Helton - 73/81  80.2%

Wagner - 70/91  76.9%

Sheffield (64/91, 70.3%), Beltran (58/91, 63.7%) and Jones (56/91, 61.5%) are the only others above 50%.

There are some very head-scratching ballots being submitted.

Typo on the number of recorded votes for Helton?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Interesting analysis.

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Typo on the number of recorded votes for Helton?

Yes, my bad. At that time it was 73/91. 

Currently:

Beltre  -  94/96  97.9%

Mauer  -  79/96  82.3%

Helton  -  78/96  81.3%

Wagner  - 75/96   78.1%

 

 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 12/4/2023 at 4:46 PM, DJL44 said:

After 100 ballots we'll have a good idea of whether Mauer has a chance

Travis Sawchik’s column https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2800615/explaining-a-hall-of-fame-vote-and-process makes 100 ballots.  

Beltre 98

Mauer 83

Helton 82

Wagner 79

Sheffield 73

In answer to your question, DJ, I’d say he definitely has a chance.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Travis Sawchik’s column https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2800615/explaining-a-hall-of-fame-vote-and-process makes 100 ballots.  

Beltre 98

Mauer 83

Helton 82

Wagner 79

Sheffield 73

In answer to your question, DJ, I’d say he definitely has a chance.

We can't say with any confidence that Mauer will finish ahead of Helton in the voting but the odds are favorable that he will finish above 75%. It's now more likely than not that Mauer gets elected this year. If we assumed voting was random the 95% confidence interval is +/- 7% (expect his final total to be between 76% and 90%). There is evidence that people who publicly announce vote for more candidates than those who don't so there is still a chance he falls just short. Someone with more stats background than me could tell you the exact chances.

He's a lock to get elected to the Hall of Fame in one of the next 3 years even if he falls short in 2024.

[IndianaTwin]

On 12/23/2023 at 2:21 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Good word! I had to look it up. Quite fitting

 

"****ing"?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

46 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

"****ing"?

I bolded capriciousness :-/

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I bolded capriciousness :-/

Thanks for clarifying. 😀