FA Starting Pitcher Choices

[Rod Carews Birthday]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, I definitely don't expect the Twins to go after Ohtani. I'd argue that not paying for elite talent is a risk as well, though. Assuming the goal is to win championships. You need elite talent to win. Expecting to get multiple elite talents out of your system all at the same time is just as big a risk as paying for some expensive players. 

Not wanting to pay big money for elite talent is mostly because you want to be able to pay other talent, right? That's the general argument people make. You can't pay Ohtani because then how are you going to pay other guys to win with him? Isn't there risk in waiting for someone else to be worth that money? Like I said, I don't expect them to go after Ohtani, but I think this is the time to make a splash. I don't blame people for being risk averse in terms of not wanting to do the big money thing, but I think if there was ever a time to do it now is that time.

They have Correa, Buxton, and Lopez locked up for 4 or 5 years each. Now Buxton may be lost money at this point, but I'm just trying to lay out the situation. They have Vazquez for 2 more years. Kepler for 1, and Polanco for 2. Those are the only guys making real money right now, right? Ryan, Ober, Lewis, Julien, Lee, Kirilloff, Wallner, Martin, and so on are the guys everyone wants to build around, and have money to pay, right? Those guys are all at various spots between not even being on the 40-man today and pre-arbitration if I'm not mistaken. That means you have them all under control, for well under market rates, for 3-6+ years. I don't think anyone would argue that anyone I just named has any shot at being as good as Ohtani over the next 5 years. After those 5 years when he likely starts to decline, you have all the guys currently making big money off the books and Ohtani's contract isn't even filling every dollar you make up with losing them. Basically losing Correa, Buxton, and Vazquez from your roster covers Ohtani's deal in 5 years. Kepler, Polanco, and Lopez coming off the books over the next 4 covers any increase to the arbitration numbers from the young guys we're all excited for. And then you continue to backfill with pre-arb young players to sustain your success. 

I don't see a ton of risk in the Twins making another big signing right now. The risk would be that you picked the wrong free agent so you can't sign another one later on to make up for them. The Twins new young core is here. They're always going to be the key to sustained success, but by having so many young guys it provides you a 5 year window to go big on free agents to surround them with while also giving you 5 more years until you need to replace a whole bunch of young guys instead of just 1 or 2 here and there. I don't expect Ohtani, but their window is now. If not now, when? When are they going to be better set with young talent all arriving at the same time with a natural window to go big?

The Rangers are on the brink of a championship because they saw their system about to produce a number of good players and they went out and spent money on stars to support that. Why can't the Twins do the same thing?

I can definitely get onboard with the “if not now, when?” argument.  I think that’s logical anytime that there is an influx of cheap talent either there or on it’s way.  I’m not sure that the Twins pipeline is necessarily quite the same bunch of future all-stars that you are thinking, but there are definitely some good players both in hand and on the way.  

I think most of my objection to signing Ohtani (I think we’re in agreement that it’s not actually happening) is that I am wary to commit to ten years at $50M per year. If things don’t work out for him — his injury is worse than advertised, he just turns into a pumpkin out of the blue one day, etc. — that’s a huge amount of money to have committed to one player that has the potential to hamstring the roster.  I agree with your earlier post that ten years for him might be better spent than ten years for Bogaarts or Machado, but I’m in the camp that says ten years is too much for anybody.   I might be in the minority on this, but I actually think the length is a bigger issue than the $50M per annum.  It’s not my checkbook, so I don’t really care about the money, but I do care that they can continue to be competitive and not completely tank five or six years down the road.  If I thought that he was the one player that would put the Twins over the top for the WS, I might pull the trigger, but I don’t think they are quite there.  

All of that being said, it would be awesome to have him on the team!

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Rangers have $251M payroll. Well above Twins level. Twins will probably reduce payroll this year to account for lost local TV revenue. They are at $88M in committed money now. Ohtani alone doesn’t fit, let alone adding a starter, or adding an arm or two to the pen. 

I'm not going to get into 2024 payroll stuff here, and I understand that some fans will buy the "we have to reduce payroll for 2024" line they're fed, but I won't. You just won your first playoff game in 2 decades, and had an incredible atmosphere at Target Field. If the Pohlads need to eat it for a year, so be it. You don't get to where you're at now and take a step back.

Texas has the 13th best market score in MLB. The Twins are 17th. Should the Rangers have a higher payroll? For sure. Should they have a $100 million higher payroll? I'd argue that's either the Pohlads caring more about profit than the Texas owners, or the Rangers being run better so they make more money. The Rangers are actually eligible for revenue sharing based on their market size. The Rangers have the 4th highest payroll despite having the 13th highest market score. The Twins have the 16th or 17th highest payroll (depending on your source) with the 17th highest market score. If the Rangers can get to 250 why can't the Twins get to 200? Is it because they can't sell tickets and get eyeballs because they've built terrible teams for most of the last 10+ years? 

Cardinals have the 26th best market score and nearly the exact same payroll as the Twins. San Diego is 24th and had the 3rd highest payroll. Rockies have the 21st highest market score and a payroll 20 million higher than the Twins. Houston is 15th in market score and have maintained top 5-10 payrolls for years.

The Twins have momentum now. Feels like an awfully big business mistake to crush that by cutting payroll now. Especially when there's plenty of smaller, or similar, markets that find a way.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I can definitely get onboard with the “if not now, when?” argument.  I think that’s logical anytime that there is an influx of cheap talent either there or on it’s way.  I’m not sure that the Twins pipeline is necessarily quite the same bunch of future all-stars that you are thinking, but there are definitely some good players both in hand and on the way.  

I think most of my objection to signing Ohtani (I think we’re in agreement that it’s not actually happening) is that I am wary to commit to ten years at $50M per year. If things don’t work out for him — his injury is worse than advertised, he just turns into a pumpkin out of the blue one day, etc. — that’s a huge amount of money to have committed to one player that has the potential to hamstring the roster.  I agree with your earlier post that ten years for him might be better spent than ten years for Bogaarts or Machado, but I’m in the camp that says ten years is too much for anybody.   I might be in the minority on this, but I actually think the length is a bigger issue than the $50M per annum.  It’s not my checkbook, so I don’t really care about the money, but I do care that they can continue to be competitive and not completely tank five or six years down the road.  If I thought that he was the one player that would put the Twins over the top for the WS, I might pull the trigger, but I don’t think they are quite there.  

All of that being said, it would be awesome to have him on the team!

I don't think there's a bunch of future all stars coming up, and that's why I want to pay for them. I think there's a lot of really good players coming up, with 1 or 2 all stars, and that's why I want to supplement them with paid for stars to push them over the top. Or give them the best chance to get over the top.

I totally understand the 10 year thing. In fact, I wouldn't go to 10 years for any other player (assuming we're talking free agents so they're in their late 20s, early 30s). I don't like the idea of signing the vast majority of players past the age of 35 (it's why I'm not overly thrilled with the idea of bringing Gray back for 3 years). I just think if you have the chance to add the greatest player to ever live you should do it. The extra revenue he would bring in for the first 5 years of that contract pays for the last 5. I think he's simply the most extreme outlier in the history of baseball (maybe sports in general), and if I could get him I would. Agreed the 10 years is way bigger of a concern than the AAV. But I'd do it anyways. But, yes, this is really a complete waste of my energy as it'll simply never happen. But man would it be awesome.

[Brandon]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:49 AM, chpettit19 said:

1. (1) Shohei Ohtani (10 years, 477 mil plus incentives and escalators taking it over 500 mil- basically 50 mil/year)
2. (2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 211 mil- 30.1 mil/year)
3. (3) Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 127 mil- 25.4 mil/year)
4. (4) Aaron Nola (5 years, 125 mil- 25 mil/year)
5. (5) Blake Snell (5 years, 122 mil- 24.4 mil/year)
6. (9) Clayton Kershaw (1 year, 22 mil- 22 mil/year)
7. (10) Sonny Gray (3 years, 64 mil- 21.3 mil/year)
8. (11) Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 90 mil- 18 mil/year)
9. (12) Michael Wacha (1 year, 16 mil- 16 mil/year)

Looking at this list,  If the Twins are saying that they can't afford Gray, They probably can't afford anyone else above him on the list.  if anything I could see a 2 year 28 - 30 million for Wacha.  also, they might front load it so its 16 million the first year and 12 million the second year.  since 2025 is the big budget crunch year.  I can also see them going after Maeda on a similar contract.  A 1 year deal may be more preferable for management with the hopes one of our prospects are ready to step into the rotation in 2025.  

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Looking at this list,  If the Twins are saying that they can't afford Gray, They probably can't afford anyone else above him on the list.  if anything I could see a 2 year 28 - 30 million for Wacha.  also, they might front load it so its 16 million the first year and 12 million the second year.  since 2025 is the big budget crunch year.  I can also see them going after Maeda on a similar contract.  A 1 year deal may be more preferable for management with the hopes one of our prospects are ready to step into the rotation in 2025.  

Have the Twins said they can't afford Gray? I don't really follow their pressers or anything. Not being able to afford 20ish a year would be very frustrating.

[1985Fan]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not going to get into 2024 payroll stuff here, and I understand that some fans will buy the "we have to reduce payroll for 2024" line they're fed, but I won't. You just won your first playoff game in 2 decades, and had an incredible atmosphere at Target Field. If the Pohlads need to eat it for a year, so be it. You don't get to where you're at now and take a step back.

Texas has the 13th best market score in MLB. The Twins are 17th. Should the Rangers have a higher payroll? For sure. Should they have a $100 million higher payroll? I'd argue that's either the Pohlads caring more about profit than the Texas owners, or the Rangers being run better so they make more money. The Rangers are actually eligible for revenue sharing based on their market size. The Rangers have the 4th highest payroll despite having the 13th highest market score. The Twins have the 16th or 17th highest payroll (depending on your source) with the 17th highest market score. If the Rangers can get to 250 why can't the Twins get to 200? Is it because they can't sell tickets and get eyeballs because they've built terrible teams for most of the last 10+ years? 

Cardinals have the 26th best market score and nearly the exact same payroll as the Twins. San Diego is 24th and had the 3rd highest payroll. Rockies have the 21st highest market score and a payroll 20 million higher than the Twins. Houston is 15th in market score and have maintained top 5-10 payrolls for years.

The Twins have momentum now. Feels like an awfully big business mistake to crush that by cutting payroll now. Especially when there's plenty of smaller, or similar, markets that find a way.

I think the teams you listed are great examples of how to buy your way to failure. The Padres and Rockies are terrible models to follow. Dodgers payroll vs playoff success is not a pretty picture. It’s safe to say that payroll size does not equate to playoff success. I think it’s reasonable for the Twins to sign the right FA. I just don’t think breaking the bank for one player is wise. Adding through trades or the farm system can be just as valuable as FA signings. Lopez trade worked well so far. Maybe a trade for an impact hitter this year or signing FA bullpen help will put the Twins over the top this year. 

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

I think the teams you listed are great examples of how to buy your way to failure. The Padres and Rockies are terrible models to follow. Dodgers payroll vs playoff success is not a pretty picture. It’s safe to say that payroll size does not equate to playoff success. I think it’s reasonable for the Twins to sign the right FA. I just don’t think breaking the bank for one player is wise. Adding through trades or the farm system can be just as valuable as FA signings. Lopez trade worked well so far. Maybe a trade for an impact hitter this year or signing FA bullpen help will put the Twins over the top this year. 

The Rockies are fighting with the Angels for the worst run franchise in baseball. Definitely don't want to be following their lead. But the Padres were basically the opposite of the 2022 Vikings this year. They were 2-12 in extra inning games, and 9-23 in 1 run games. They had a +104 run differential (Twins was +119, 104 was 8th best in baseball) which makes it absolutely crazy that they finished with only 82 wins. And they made it to the NLCS last year. If that's a "terrible model to follow" I don't know what our expectations should be here.

Yes, Dodgers playoff success has been severely lacking, but they win 100 games basically every year, and have won 90 plus every year since 2013. I'll take that "not pretty picture" over the Twins picture since 2013. The Rangers are about to win the World Series. The Astros have been to 8 straight ALCS. And St Louis just had their first losing season since 2007, and only their 3rd since 1999. If those are examples of teams "buying their way to failure" I'd like to sign up for buying my way to failure, because those are the teams I just named, and they're all having way more success than the Twins (other than Colorado).

Adding through trades and the farm system are also vital. I'm not suggesting they only build through free agency, I'm suggesting they supplement through free agency. And the top end of it, not the bottom. Yes, the Lopez deal has worked well so far, but the Mahle one hasn't at all. They should be making trades, promoting young guys, and signing free agents. Whatever you have to do to get top end talent. If they develop right they can afford top end free agents in certain windows. I think this is one of those windows.

[Jocko87]

If that's the list, I'm out short of an Ohtani miracle.

They do need one more stud arm though but I'd rather try and find another Lopez and pay the prospect cost. If it's anyone but Lee, Lewis, Jenkins and Erod I'll consider it a bargain.

[DocBauer]

To be honest, I'm having a hard time with this list. I mean, how can I say no to Gray's age 34-36 seasons and then say yes to some longer deals for a different arm that will incorporate some of those same years?

I love Gray, I think he's got tread on the tires still, knows how to pitch, is a great leader, and while his peripherals may never match 2023 again, he's just good. However, I do worry about age and injury and 2023 being the most starts and IP in 3+ years. I don't believe he's going to be AS GOOD as he was this past season, but for 3yrs and a little over $60M, he's near the top of my list.

I have a soft spot for LH SP and sure wish the Twins had one. But despite a solid career with a couple great seasons, I'm just not able to trust Snell for that much and those years. He walks a ton, and except for 2018 and 2023, he's never thrown more than 129 innings. I like Montgomery and Rodriguez better. And when I look at both of their careers, back and forth, I don't see a lot to tip the scales either way. ERA and FIP and WHIP are so close. Rodriguez is only slightly better in BB/9 but Montgomery has the slightly better WHIP. But Rodriguez has a better K rate almost 2 more per 9 IP, and has been "doing it" at the ML level longer than Montgomery, even though he's about 6 months younger.

BUT, Nola is my #1, hands down. He's durable, tosses a ton of IP, gets a ton of K's, and has a fine BB/9 and WHIP. His career FIP is below his very solid career ERA. His ERA, FWIW, jumped above 4 in 2021 and 2023. But overall, his peripherals were still excellent, a bit more so in '21. He won't turn 31yo until June of 2024. As long as the consistent 180-200 IP per season don't start to suddenly wear on him, I'm perfectly fine with a 5yr deal for him. $25M per season? No problem. If I'm the Twins...even with some questions about $ and TV contracts/payroll for 2024 and a spike in '25, I'd think about front loading the deal while a lot of my roster was still pretty young and inexpensive, and "buy down" his last couple of years. I MIGHT even bump a year or two another $M or two.

If I could get him for 5yrs at $125M the day FA began, I'd be on his doorstep with a contract and pen in hand. I might even bring a couple pens, just in case, LOL. 

IMO, he's one of those guys who is often thought of as really good, but he's not GREAT. I mean, he's not a Scherzer or Verlander in their prime. And then you look a little closer at what he's done so far, and still only 30yrs old until June of '24, and he might have a couple even better seasons than he's had previously over the next 3yrs or so, and he might end up as a bargain at around $25M per.

#1] Nola. Get the contract ready!

#2] Rodriguez. ESPECIALLY if I could get him for $18M per on 5yrs. Again, why not front load a bit for the first few years if you can.

#3] Gray. Keep what you have and what you know. He might not be as good as what he was in 2023, but he's had great success as a Twin, and you probably love what he gives you for at least the first 2 yrs.

DARK HORSE OPTION: Never been a huge Giolito fan. But he's been very good for stretches. Still not yet 30yo and throwing OK numbers before trades and waivers had him bouncing around to a pair of teams to finish with nightmarish numbers to end his season, could he be a smart signing? Imagine control of his changeup again and the Twins doing what they did with Lopez and re-shaping his breaking pitch. Again, possible steal of a signing based on projections?

I've listed my top 3. And for once, I wish the FO would make an actual FA investment that they feel good about and not go the trade route. I DON'T believe in building a staff via the FA route. It just never pays off in the end, final chapter, etc. But I do believe there is a collection of arms available this offseason that don't break the bank, or offer massive negative returns on 3-5yr deals that cripple a franchise. 

I'm still inclined to believe they will go the trade route, and I will refrain from speculation on such at this time. But the FO has surprised us previously, and may do so again. I just look at what's here and what's coming up, and I just really want them to hold on to that for right now and see how it develops and FOR ONCE, toss their cards in one ONE arm that they really believe in. If they're right, they can then focus on the lineup, the pen, extensions, and OTHER young arms being developed and coming up.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

If that's the list, I'm out short of an Ohtani miracle.

They do need one more stud arm though but I'd rather try and find another Lopez and pay the prospect cost. If it's anyone but Lee, Lewis, Jenkins and Erod I'll consider it a bargain.

What do you feel the difference between Lopez and the number 3-5 guys on that list is? Especially prior to the Twins acquiring him. They're paying him 21.5 per year after next year so it's not like he's significantly cheaper than them, and he cost them Arraez on top of that. He's younger than everyone but Yamamoto, but he cost them Arraez. What do you think the prospect cost would be compared to giving up a defending batting champ? Julien is the only guy that'd likely come close to Arraez's value so are you looking to trade him? Not sure how else you get it done without using Lee, Lewis, Jenkins, or ERod. 

[Jocko87]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What do you feel the difference between Lopez and the number 3-5 guys on that list is? Especially prior to the Twins acquiring him. They're paying him 21.5 per year after next year so it's not like he's significantly cheaper than them, and he cost them Arraez on top of that. He's younger than everyone but Yamamoto, but he cost them Arraez. What do you think the prospect cost would be compared to giving up a defending batting champ? Julien is the only guy that'd likely come close to Arraez's value so are you looking to trade him? Not sure how else you get it done without using Lee, Lewis, Jenkins, or ERod. 

Age and control years.  Lopez at 5 yrs and 79m total spend is a bargain compared to this group.  And Julien is certainly available.  The guys they stick with and extend will be glove and stick players, they can’t afford any other way.  I’m taking all calls on Julien but my price is high. 

Maybe the pitcher will be AAA instead of MLB established, maybe the extra prospects go the other way this time.  I’m not as focused in filling the #2 hole as getting guys that project to that in the near term.  I’m taking the cheaper and higher upside solution dealing from a position of strength.  There will always be a rental ace available at the deadline.  I don’t see any reason in that list of players they would suddenly change their ways and start making it rain on free agent pitchers. 

[High heat]

How about Jack Flaherty?  Just 28 and has lost some velo last 2 seasons but was dominate prior.  
 

Twins have shown they can add velo with guys like Festa and Varland.  Think they can make some adjustments with flaherty and get him back to 21?

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Age and control years.  Lopez at 5 yrs and 79m total spend is a bargain compared to this group.  And Julien is certainly available.  The guys they stick with and extend will be glove and stick players, they can’t afford any other way.  I’m taking all calls on Julien but my price is high. 

Maybe the pitcher will be AAA instead of MLB established, maybe the extra prospects go the other way this time.  I’m not as focused in filling the #2 hole as getting guys that project to that in the near term.  I’m taking the cheaper and higher upside solution dealing from a position of strength.  There will always be a rental ace available at the deadline.  I don’t see any reason in that list of players they would suddenly change their ways and start making it rain on free agent pitchers. 

I don't mind that strategy, but I'd rather just use money than players and money. Everyone wants stick and glove players, but it's not that easy. Replacing Julien's bat won't be easy. Not saying not to trade him (or anyone), but the offense was still a problem in the playoffs (and for most of the year) so I don't know that I see trading any good bats as dealing from a position of strength. But I would guess it's more likely they trade than sign one of these guys. Even though I think the top 5 names on this list are likely just as good, or better, than any pitcher they can get in trade.

And cheap, #2 projection type pitchers in AAA are going to cost a ton in trade. Well more than Julien. If you're set on not trading Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, or ERod you're going to struggle to get somebody like that. Everybody wants those guys. Most valuable commodity in baseball probably. 27 year old Lopez with 2 years of control left cost a batting champ. 20-26 year old Lopez type with even more control costs well more than that would be my guess.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, High heat said:

How about Jack Flaherty?  Just 28 and has lost some velo last 2 seasons but was dominate prior.  
 

Twins have shown they can add velo with guys like Festa and Varland.  Think they can make some adjustments with flaherty and get him back to 21?

Flaherty is an interesting one for me. If this were a couple years ago I'd be all over him instead of the Happ, Shoemaker, Archer, Bundy signings they were making, but, as I see it, they have 1 opening in the rotation for 2024. I want a more sure thing than Flaherty for that 1 spot if I can get it.

[roger]

Amazing at the numbers being thrown around.  And we all should remember that Ohtani ain't gonna pitch in 2024.  So signing him to mega millions won't solve the problem facing them next year.

Now that the series is over, I expect that the Twins and Gray will have serious discussions about a reasonable deal.  Assuming he declines, I expect the Twins will issue him a QO.  Does that have to be done within the five day window following last night?  How long does Gray have to respond?  I remain hopeful that he takes the $20.5M for next year and the issue is resolved.  

And if Gray says no, don't be surprised if we see something done with either Maeda or Mahle.  When could Mahle be expected to return, mid-summer?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, roger said:

And if Gray says no, don't be surprised if we see something done with either Maeda or Mahle.  When could Mahle be expected to return, mid-summer?

I wouldn't count on Mahle at all in 2024. He's had shoulder injuries in addition to the elbow. They might get 5 innings out of Mahle like they did with Paddack.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Amazing at the numbers being thrown around.  And we all should remember that Ohtani ain't gonna pitch in 2024.  So signing him to mega millions won't solve the problem facing them next year.

Now that the series is over, I expect that the Twins and Gray will have serious discussions about a reasonable deal.  Assuming he declines, I expect the Twins will issue him a QO.  Does that have to be done within the five day window following last night?  How long does Gray have to respond?  I remain hopeful that he takes the $20.5M for next year and the issue is resolved.  

And if Gray says no, don't be surprised if we see something done with either Maeda or Mahle.  When could Mahle be expected to return, mid-summer?

Ohtani may not fix the front of the rotation problem for next year, but he'd fix it moving forward after that, and he'd fix the elite hitter at the top of the lineup problem starting next year.

Yes, QO is due to Gray within 5 days. He has until November 15th to decide if he wants to accept it. I'd be pretty shocked if he accepts it and doesn't take the chance to at least field offers from every team for the first time in his career.

I like Maeda, and Mahle is an intriguing arm, but I'd be incredibly disappointed if that was the move they made to fill the open rotation spot. Mahle can't be counted on until August maybe, and even then that's a big risk to hope he jumps right back in at top form. Maeda is a solid pitcher, but he's not a top 1-3 pitcher in a playoff rotation. I'd rather take a shot at someone like Flaherty bouncing back than go with either of those guys. The rotation spot they have open is for a #1 or 2. Filling it with someone like Maeda or Mahle would be a very clear step back from 2023.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am not a big fan of long term contracts for SP, no matter how good they are.  Four year max on a SP.  Too many injuries, too many things can go wrong.  I would rather see them go after these guys with a shorter term/higher AAS.  It mitigates the risk.

Would love to have Gray back at those numbers.

Outside of a very few guys, I am starting to believe the Twins would be in on any player they choose to go after.

[roger]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Ohtani may not fix the front of the rotation problem for next year, but he'd fix it moving forward after that, and he'd fix the elite hitter at the top of the lineup problem starting next year.

Yes, QO is due to Gray within 5 days. He has until November 15th to decide if he wants to accept it. I'd be pretty shocked if he accepts it and doesn't take the chance to at least field offers from every team for the first time in his career.

I like Maeda, and Mahle is an intriguing arm, but I'd be incredibly disappointed if that was the move they made to fill the open rotation spot. Mahle can't be counted on until August maybe, and even then that's a big risk to hope he jumps right back in at top form. Maeda is a solid pitcher, but he's not a top 1-3 pitcher in a playoff rotation. I'd rather take a shot at someone like Flaherty bouncing back than go with either of those guys. The rotation spot they have open is for a #1 or 2. Filling it with someone like Maeda or Mahle would be a very clear step back from 2023.

Understand that Mahle won't be a top two arm in 2024.  But after watching the FO deal with Paddack last year and that big guy a few years ago, I won't be surprised if they sign Mahle to a two or three year deal paying him a couple million next year with a boost when he is healthy.  

As for next year, Maeda might fill one of their five spots.  That would leave Varland in St. Paul as the next arm up to fill in for injuries and when any of the five need a couple week break to rest their arms. 

It is possible the #2 spot could be filled by one of the other starters on the staff.  Maybe Paddack?  Or Ryan?  Or Maeda, should he pitch like he did a couple years ago.  I also believe there is more for the Twins to get out of Ober.  He is still learning and was awfully good this past year.  Agree however, that they need one more starter.  Just not certain it needs to be an overly expensive #2.

[gman]

I don't see the Twins coughing up $500mil for any player. I really wonder if anyone will pay that much for an injured player, probably.  As far as the young everyday players go, we all HOPE they will the makings of a very solid lineup for years. None have played a full, healthy season in the majors yet. I think Julian comes the closest but has only played 109 games in the bigs. So I don't expect them to do more than firm up their starting rotation plans, whether that be through promotion from the minors or signing a lesser free agent. I would like to see a magic season of the team getting further in the playoffs and I expect them to win their division without adding anyone at this point.

Lest we forget, the Twins didn't even get in the free agent game as most players got signed out of free agency in about a 2 week period a couple years ago. I can see most of these players gone before the team exhales.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Flaherty is an interesting one for me. If this were a couple years ago I'd be all over him instead of the Happ, Shoemaker, Archer, Bundy signings they were making, but, as I see it, they have 1 opening in the rotation for 2024. I want a more sure thing than Flaherty for that 1 spot if I can get it.

In past years he would have appealed to me as well. He certainly has more upside than guys like Bundy and Shoemaker.

But along with wanting a higher caliber pitcher, Flaherty has struggled with control the past couple years and the Twins have been excellent in resisting walks since the new front office took over. I think if we want to figure out which guys this team might chase, we should start by looking at BB%, then K%.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, roger said:

Understand that Mahle won't be a top two arm in 2024.  But after watching the FO deal with Paddack last year and that big guy a few years ago, I won't be surprised if they sign Mahle to a two or three year deal paying him a couple million next year with a boost when he is healthy.  

As for next year, Maeda might fill one of their five spots.  That would leave Varland in St. Paul as the next arm up to fill in for injuries and when any of the five need a couple week break to rest their arms. 

It is possible the #2 spot could be filled by one of the other starters on the staff.  Maybe Paddack?  Or Ryan?  Or Maeda, should he pitch like he did a couple years ago.  I also believe there is more for the Twins to get out of Ober.  He is still learning and was awfully good this past year.  Agree however, that they need one more starter.  Just not certain it needs to be an overly expensive #2.

I wouldn't be surprised by the Twins doing a deal like that with Mahle, but from some of the things that were reported I'm not sure they like how he communicated about his arm and he just didn't feel like someone they spoke glowingly about. That is obviously very much speculation on my part, but I just didn't get the feeling like they were super happy with him so they may just let him go and not even talk about the "pay to rehab" type deal. But that is a very Twins move.

I already assume Varland is starting in AAA next year. He has the Ober role in my mind. Knowing you're going to need 6, 7, 8+ starters and having someone you trust a bit as your 6th guy is the way I think they'll go with Varland.

It is possible that Maeda, Paddack, Ryan, or Ober step up and become a #2 type pitcher. But I don't want to count on that. There's a chance you sign someone like Nola and he just falls apart, but the odds are more likely that Nola is a #1 or 2 than any of those Twins incumbents. I want to win a World Series. All you can do in the pursuit of that goal is to give yourself the best chance by fielding a team full of guys who have the best chance of performing to those levels. I'd rather bring in someone with the best chance of being a #2 and then have the nice problem of having another guy step up and having 3, 4, 5 playoff worthy starters than bring back someone like Maeda who has a far lower chance of being a playoff starter and having the bad problem of nobody stepping up and going into the playoffs with Lopez and a bunch of bullpen games.

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, gman said:

I don't see the Twins coughing up $500mil for any player. I really wonder if anyone will pay that much for an injured player, probably.  As far as the young everyday players go, we all HOPE they will the makings of a very solid lineup for years. None have played a full, healthy season in the majors yet. I think Julian comes the closest but has only played 109 games in the bigs. So I don't expect them to do more than firm up their starting rotation plans, whether that be through promotion from the minors or signing a lesser free agent. I would like to see a magic season of the team getting further in the playoffs and I expect them to win their division without adding anyone at this point.

Lest we forget, the Twins didn't even get in the free agent game as most players got signed out of free agency in about a 2 week period a couple years ago. I can see most of these players gone before the team exhales.

Certainly don't expect the Twins to sign Ohtani, but I'll be absolutely floored if he doesn't get 500 mil from someone. He's going to DH all year so "injured" is a bit relative with him. His offense alone was worth over 50 mil if you subscribe to the idea that 1 WAR costs about 8 mil on the open market.

The young, everyday players being a bunch of hope right now is exactly why I want to spend on an established star. I have never understood the idea that teams should wait until they just need that last piece to bring in a star (not saying that's what you're saying, just that it's the general idea people throw around). People lost their minds when the Rangers signed Semien and Seager 2 years ago because they weren't ready to have 2 players push them over the top. Well the Rangers knew they had guys coming. They believed in Garcia, Carter, Jung, Heim, Lowe, etc. and knew it may not all come together in 2022, or even 2023, but their wave was coming. The Twins wave is coming. Their success will always rely on the prospect wave producing talent, but they can give the roster a boost by bringing in another established player to help get them over the top.

I don't have high expectations for them to actually sign anyone quickly, or at the top of the market. But I don't see any reason they shouldn't, or couldn't. If the goal is truly to bring another World Series title to Minnesota their window is opening and they should be looking to add real top talent. If they don't I think fans should be mad.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Certainly don't expect the Twins to sign Ohtani, but I'll be absolutely floored if he doesn't get 500 mil from someone. He's going to DH all year so "injured" is a bit relative with him. His offense alone was worth over 50 mil if you subscribe to the idea that 1 WAR costs about 8 mil on the open market.

The young, everyday players being a bunch of hope right now is exactly why I want to spend on an established star. I have never understood the idea that teams should wait until they're close to bring in a star (not saying that's what you're saying, just that it's the general idea people throw around). People lost their minds when the Rangers signed Semien and Seager 2 years ago because they weren't ready to have 2 players push them over the top. Well the Rangers knew they had guys coming. They believed in Garcia, Carter, Jung, Heim, Lowe, etc. and knew it may not all come together in 2022, or even 2023, but their wave was coming. The Twins wave is coming. Their success will always rely on the prospect wave producing talent, but they can give the roster a boost by bringing in another established player to help get them over the top.

I don't have high expectations for them to actually sign anyone quickly, or at the top of the market. But I don't see any reason they shouldn't, or couldn't. If the goal is truly to bring another World Series title to Minnesota their window is opening and they should be looking to add real top talent. If they don't I think fans should be mad.

Agreed on Ohtani. Not only is he the best player in baseball he's also the most marketable player in baseball by a large margin. He gains interest from around the world. He's a DH to help him pitch, not because he's a terrible fielder. If he never pitches again he's probably a RF/1B as good as Bryce Harper. Ultimately I think he's worth more marginal revenue to the Yankees or Dodgers than he is to the Twins so the Twins don't have a real chance to obtain him.

I think the Twins brought in Carlos Correa to be one of those star players that helps push them to becoming a contender. I don't see them spending big on Correa to contend and then deciding to pull back when it actually worked.

They can pull back on spending during the next rebuild and make more profit then.

[Jeff K]

On 10/31/2023 at 2:49 PM, chpettit19 said:

I'm not a big fan of Jim Bowden (he has some takes that prove to wildly off the mark for being a former big league GM), but he just released his free agency predictions on The Athletic. It's behind a paywall so I won't put it all down here, but I wanted to take a look at the top 10 pitchers from his list (he ranked the top 40 FAs with contract predictions). 

Pitcher Rank (overall rank) Player (contract prediction)

1. (1) Shohei Ohtani (10 years, 477 mil plus incentives and escalators taking it over 500 mil- basically 50 mil/year)
2. (2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 211 mil- 30.1 mil/year)
3. (3) Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 127 mil- 25.4 mil/year)
4. (4) Aaron Nola (5 years, 125 mil- 25 mil/year)
5. (5) Blake Snell (5 years, 122 mil- 24.4 mil/year)
6. (9) Clayton Kershaw (1 year, 22 mil- 22 mil/year)
7. (10) Sonny Gray (3 years, 64 mil- 21.3 mil/year)
8. (11) Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 90 mil- 18 mil/year)
9. (12) Michael Wacha (1 year, 16 mil- 16 mil/year)
10. (13) Lucas Giolito (2 years, 24 mil- 12 mil/year)

First thing I notice here is how concentrated the top of the rankings are with pitchers. I don't think that should come as a surprise to many as I think it was well known that the position players side of things was pretty shallow this year. But 10 of the top 13 guys being pitchers is a lot. And I don't think it's wrong.

Second thing is what we all love coming on here and discussing...who should the Twins target? While I think the Twins could (and should) offer Ohtani that kind of contract, I don't think anyone truly thinks he's an option for the Twins so we can skip over him. I think the next 4 are the ones the Twins should be targeting, and I think all of those contracts are doable for the Twins. I don't expect them to go after Yamamoto even if I think he'll be a star and is the youngest guy on this list by far.

To me, the Twins have a 5 year window they should be going more or less all in for as they have Buxton (even though you can't rely on him at all anymore) and Correa under contract for those 5 years, Pablo Lopez for most of it, and nearly all of their young talent under control for at least that long as well. I know people worry about "sustained success" and blocking prospects, but I think the window is open now and relying on the young guys to fill in top of the rotation or lineup spots is too risky. Pairing Lopez and one of the top 5 names on this list at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future would be massive. Yes, injuries are always a concern for starting pitchers, but relying on Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, and SWR to not only be as good as anyone on this list, but also to stay healthy as well, doesn't sound like a recipe for a World Series title to me. Locking in Lopez, FA X, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack as your rotation for the next 2 years, plus more for 4 of those guys, means you can move someone like Varland to the pen (not to start 2024, but eventually) if he can't take the next step, you can trade someone like SWR for a bat if he starts performing next year, and you can truly rely on your system for depth instead of needing it to produce stars regularly.

Signing one of those top 5 guys would be my first task to complete this offseason if I were in charge of the FO. And it'd be for 4+ years. I think getting that done means you can focus almost entirely on the offense (and pen) moving forward as you have your rotation pretty well locked up with the guys coming up in the system fighting to either push one of these guys out, or take over Paddack's spot in 2026. I know a lot of people like the Twins system, but I don't see any pitcher in there that's likely to match Lopez or anyone at the top of this list anytime soon. And if they do, great! Then you have 3 frontline guys.

I'd take Sonny back for a year (I don't expect him to be able to repeat his production this season for much longer, if at all) or Rodriguez, but those top 5 guys is what I'd like to see the Twins go after, and get. Kershaw isn't an option, and the 2 Japanese stars likely aren't realistic either. So, really, it's Montgomery, Nola, and Snell that I'd like. In that order, but I'd take any of them.

What do others think? Realistic for the Twins to get any of these guys? Who would you want? And for how long?

100% agree.  I've seen similar ratings from another source (maybe Cbs sports?).  Maeda is also shown around #25.  I hope the Twins go after one of the top guys not named Ohtani so that the top of our rotation is as strong as 2023.  The money shown does not seem outrageous.  And it's well past time to stop talking about the Twins/Pohlads being cheap.  That is old news.  They are no longer that organization.

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not going to get into 2024 payroll stuff here, and I understand that some fans will buy the "we have to reduce payroll for 2024" line they're fed, but I won't. You just won your first playoff game in 2 decades, and had an incredible atmosphere at Target Field. If the Pohlads need to eat it for a year, so be it. You don't get to where you're at now and take a step back.

Texas has the 13th best market score in MLB. The Twins are 17th. Should the Rangers have a higher payroll? For sure. Should they have a $100 million higher payroll? I'd argue that's either the Pohlads caring more about profit than the Texas owners, or the Rangers being run better so they make more money. The Rangers are actually eligible for revenue sharing based on their market size. The Rangers have the 4th highest payroll despite having the 13th highest market score. The Twins have the 16th or 17th highest payroll (depending on your source) with the 17th highest market score. If the Rangers can get to 250 why can't the Twins get to 200? Is it because they can't sell tickets and get eyeballs because they've built terrible teams for most of the last 10+ years? 

Cardinals have the 26th best market score and nearly the exact same payroll as the Twins. San Diego is 24th and had the 3rd highest payroll. Rockies have the 21st highest market score and a payroll 20 million higher than the Twins. Houston is 15th in market score and have maintained top 5-10 payrolls for years.

The Twins have momentum now. Feels like an awfully big business mistake to crush that by cutting payroll now. Especially when there's plenty of smaller, or similar, markets that find a way.

Market score has a correlation to revenue but using it here as a measuring stick makes no sense.  You can take a shot at arguing they should be able to produce more revenue in this market but the only measure that matters is revenue.

It's also a misrepresentation to say they have a $250M payroll.  The players they ended the season with add up to $250M but the Met's and cardinals paid for Scherzer and Montogomery.  So, their actual payroll is $207MM this year.  They go into next year with $173M + prearb and arbitration projecting at $210M.  They have about $100M in revenue without the playoff revenue and about $60M more in salary.  

It's pretty simple in any business.  If revenue goes down, expenses have to go down if profitability is to be maintained.  So, what we really need to hope for is quite straight forward .... We must hope the Pohlad's are willing to reduce profitability or perhaps take a loss.  

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We must hope the Pohlad's are willing to reduce profitability or perhaps take a loss.

Baseball teams get to be extra profitable during the "rebuild" when they dump expensive players and go with the cheap youngsters. The time to spend and be less profitable is when you're contending.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Market score has a correlation to revenue but using it here as a measuring stick makes no sense.  You can take a shot at arguing they should be able to produce more revenue in this market but the only measure that matters is revenue.

It's also a misrepresentation to say they have a $250M payroll.  The players they ended the season with add up to $250M but the Met's and cardinals paid for Scherzer and Montogomery.  So, their actual payroll is $207MM this year.  They go into next year with $173M + prearb and arbitration projecting at $210M.  They have about $100M in revenue without the playoff revenue and about $60M more in salary.  

It's pretty simple in any business.  If revenue goes down, expenses have to go down if profitability is to be maintained.  So, what we really need to hope for is quite straight forward .... We must hope the Pohlad's are willing to reduce profitability or perhaps take a loss.

Why does it not make sense? MLB is literally giving us the expected ability of each market to make a certain revenue as compared to the rest of the league. Why would it not make sense to use it as a measuring stick of how teams are doing? I don't care what the Twins actual revenue is (and we don't know their actual revenue so it makes no more sense to go off that). MLB is telling us what it should be relative to their competition. It's more than fair to expect the Twins to be able to create the revenue their market dictates they should generate. I'm not asking for above and beyond, I'm asking them to reach the very base of the market they're in which is 17th in baseball. If they can't produce the 17th highest revenue in baseball that's on them. Doesn't change what the expectations should be.

I didn't dive deep into the payrolls, sorry. Fine, if the Rangers can get to 207 the Twins can get to 170. Or certainly maintain 150+.

Also pretty simple in business that you have to invest money to make money. I don't have to hope the Pohlad's are "willing to reduce profitability or perhaps take a loss," I have to hope they have enough foresight to invest in their product to increase profitability moving forward.

[specialiststeve]

Would REALLY be nice having a lefty on our staff. Montgomery would be my choice but he may have pitched himself out of our budget.. 4 year 100 mil I would go to but that likely wont get it done in todays quest for pitching. Snell would be in the same as Montgomery. I believe both are 31... getting to 36 with the same results very unlikely. Rodriguez would be okay but with his injury history would be wary. 

Agree on Yamamoto.. would pay a bunch but likely outbid by the big boys. 

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Agree on Yamamoto.. would pay a bunch but likely outbid by the big boys. 

The posting fee doesn't count toward the luxury tax which makes guys like this more valuable to teams paying the luxury tax.