How did your preseason predictions pan out?

[wsnydes]

Now that the season has come to an unfortunate end, it's time to go back to Spring Training and rehash where we thought this team would end up.  What were your preseason predictions and how'd you do?

[wsnydes]

I'll go first.  I predicted that the team would hover around .500 for most of the season, finishing with 85 wins and losing the division by a game to Cleveland, and thus missing the playoffs.  Not too bad at all.

I've also said repeatedly that this team will go as far as the youngins will take them.  I think that was largely true.  And I think it was particularly true in the playoffs.  The youth showed aside from Lewis and ultimately became their undoing.

[Squirrel]

I predicted around .500 but always said they had potential. I didn’t know where they’d finish in the division, and not sure I gave a prediction of that, but, again, thought they had potential. 🙂

It’s always disappointing when the season ends with losing, but we didn’t lose everything. There were highs and lows to the season, but over all, I’m satisfied they showed their potential, but disappointed it didn’t show more.

Hows that for playing the middle?

[Vanimal46]

Do we have a link for the first poll in the winter? From memory I think I said mid 80s wins. First team to 82 wins is the AL Central champ. 

The Twins pretty much met my expectations in the regular season. And obviously exceeded it in the postseason by winning a series. 

[USAFChief]

Here's one preseason poll:

Interestingly, the consensus for regular season wins? 87.

 

[USAFChief]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Here's one preseason poll:

Interestingly, the consensus for regular season wins? 87.

 

Personally, IIRC i had them around 85 wins preseason, and at mid-season I predicted they would not win the ALC.

So I'm an idiot 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I missed the regular season win total (I said 90 games) but I did have them winning the ALC.  Interestingly their Pythagorean expected win total was 93.  I also hoped they would win a playoff series, which they did and the monkey is gone!  Now let's come back and do it again!  Go Twins!

 

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Do we have a link for the first poll in the winter? From memory I think I said mid 80s wins. First team to 82 wins is the AL Central champ. 

The Twins pretty much met my expectations in the regular season. And obviously exceeded it in the postseason by winning a series. 

I didn't find a poll.  That hack @wsnydes must have been asleep or something.

Here's another article with some prognosticating in it and the comments section.

 

 

[FlyingFinn]

I had 81 wins but having a legit shot at winning the AL Central as I thought the extra non-division games were going to be a huge problem for the AL Central teams. Happy to see the Twins exceeded my expectations. 

[Logi_Clevs]

For some reason it seems to me that every time the Twins have expectations in the preseason, they flop during the regular season, and every time people are expecting them to do well and make the postseason, they flop in the regular season.

[ashbury]

I don't remember if I offered a prediction beyond "93 wins, barring injury."  Which was of course my little joke/shorthand that I don't make predictions, since every team save a lucky few suffer serious injury of some type - putting aside the variability of human performance.  But I did think 93 was a good midrange guess, below their ceiling if absolutely everything clicked, above what they'd achieve if things fell apart like last year.  I expected their players on offense to take a big step forward this season, and they didn't - Gallo played a big role, not just in his performance but possibly stifling the development of similar but younger players.  Defense was a mixed bag, with MAT and Correa and yes Kepler being a pure pleasure to watch patrol their territories.  I didn't know how to forecast the pitching except that if the FO was right, it could be pretty good, with some weakness in the bullpen, and that panned out nicely to counteract the underperformance of the bats.  Give Pete Maki a raise, tell David Popkins he's on notice to figure out something new because his approach isn't working.  The first half was very rocky, but in the second half they were humming along at a 90+ win clip, albeit with a mix of lesser opponents making things seem a little rosier than they might actually be.  I don't think I speculated at all on the post-season, but 93 wins (making them 3rd seed in either league this year) would have likely made them a favorite to advance at least past the wild card.

So, with their moderate turnaround after the All-star break, I'm content to vote that the team approximately met my hopeful expectations, even if their first half makes the win total a half dozen game shy (which is more than just a little).

See? Not only do I not really make predictions - I don't even stand behind what I do say, though I'll use a lot of words in not saying anything.  I dislike pre-season prediction articles with a passion.

/edit - while I was typing this word salad, Chief posted the poll. My uncharacteristically succinct post in that thread was closer and more specific than I remembered.  "I'm on board with several others who have already posted. 93 wins, division title, at least one playoff series win."  I should have just posted that.

Maybe I'll try predicting again next spring.  Barring injury, of course.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

their Pythagorean expected win total was 93.

That's fun.

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I don't remember if I offered a prediction beyond "93 wins, barring injury."  Which was of course my little joke/shorthand that I don't make predictions, since every team save a lucky few suffer serious injury of some type - putting aside the variability of human performance.  But I did think 93 was a good midrange guess, below their ceiling if absolutely everything clicked, above what they'd achieve if things fell apart like last year.  I expected their players on offense to take a big step forward this season, and they didn't - Gallo played a big role, not just in his performance but possibly stifling the development of similar but younger players.  Defense was a mixed bag, with MAT and Correa being a pure pleasure to watch patrol their territories.  I didn't know how to forecast the pitching except that if the FO was right, it could be pretty good, with some weakness in the bullpen, and that panned out nicely to counteract the underperformance of the bats.  Give Pete Maki a raise, tell David Popkins he's on notice to figure out something new because his approach isn't working.  The first half was very rocky, but in the second half they were humming along at a 90+ win clip, albeit with a mix of lesser opponents making things seem a little rosier than they might actually be.  I don't think I speculated at all on the post-season, but 93 wins (making them 3rd seed in either league this year) would have likely made them a favorite to advance at least past the wild card.

So, with their moderate turnaround after the All-star break, I'm content to vote that the team approximately met my hopeful expectations, even if their first half makes the win total a half dozen game shy (which is more than just a little).

See? Not only do I not really make predictions - I don't even stand behind what I do say, though I'll use a lot of words in not saying anything.  I dislike pre-season prediction articles with a passion.

/edit - while I was typing this word salad, Chief posted the poll. My uncharacteristically succinct post was closer and more specific than I remembered. Barring injuries, of course.

I don't care much for the prediction game myself. Although... For the past 10 years... Every single year I have correctly filled out my College Men's Basketball bracket and have nailed every winner from the beginning of the tournament to the end. I simply do not make mistakes.  

We are all capable of such things. Just do like I do... wait until the games are completed before filling the brackets in. 

[Nine of twelve]

I predicted 90, so I tell myself I was pretty close. The batters fell short of my expectations and the pitchers exceeded my expectations. It could be an interesting offseason. I don't think it will take much for the 2024 team to surpass this year's win total.

[cHawk]

I expected them to win fewer than three playoff games. They won three playoff games, therefore, they surpassed my expectations.

It was a disappointing ending, no doubt about it, but a step in the right direction for the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

I think I predicted the Twins to win the AL Central with 83 wins.

I believe the team was more interesting in the second half of the season. The pitching was really good, the bats inconsistent.

The 2023 season was a success for the Twins in my opinion, all things considered.

[Squirrel]

Lol, I just read the last choice. Missed it the first time through

[wsnydes]

43 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Lol, I just read the last choice. Missed it the first time through

Took ya long enough!

[Linus]

I predicted 85 wins and going right down to the wire with Cleveland for the division. Also predicted the bullpen was going to be a problem. 

[Original_JB]

I get it; I'm a sucker for a large Cappuccino Heath.

[DocBauer]

I can't honestly remember exactly what I chose. I believe I "picked" a category that was something like 85-87 wins, roughly in there.

But what I DO remember was stating I really liked the team, as constructed, while lamenting not adding a power RH OF bat, but liking the addition of Taylor as a different course of action. 

And I didn't like not adding ONE pen arm to hedge bets against Pagan and a full return of Alcala. 

But I felt the biggest issue was the offense, only partially due to the loss of Arraez at the top of the order to help set the table. I wasn't convinced on Gallo...what a prediction there, huh? LOL. But I wasn't sure when and how Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, Kirilloff. and Julien were going to make their mark. And there were concerns about when Buxton and Polanco might be ready.

But I stated something to the affect that if and when the injured Twins and young Twins were healthy and ready, the offense could be pretty decent and we might win 92-94 games.

I NEVER expected Miranda to be hurt and wash put. I never expected Correa to struggle with something so unexpected as his foot injury. And even though I never expected Buxton to put in a full season, and never expected him to HIT so poorly...even with some viable big moments the first half...I didn't expect him to virtually disappear the 2nd half of the season.

I also didn't expect the FO to be so damn stubborn with promoting some of the young talent that was oh so close.

To be fair, I absolutely didn't expect a 30yr old Kepler to have a light come on and suddenly figure out how to just HIT THE BALL HARDER FINALLY and start to live up to his talent and sweet swing. I didn't expect Castro to make the impact that he did. At different times during the 2nd half of the season, even with a little regression from the staff, they played between a 92-96 win rate depending on the day/week.

So in the post season W-L poll, I selected the Twins fell below my expectations for the regular season. Just a little more offensive consistency in the 1st half, winning all those close games where the staff pitched their butts off, they could have won 90+ and maybe bypassed the WC round. 

The FO has to make a couple smart moves for 2024, but they don't have to overhaul anything. I'm very proud of how they played against top teams in 2023, disappointed how they did against some losing teams, frustrated by the lack of consistent offense the 1st half, and proud of how well they performed the 2nd half, sweeping the Jay's, and happy they reached the 2nd round, won a game on the road, and then imploded at home, which was frustrating as hell. 

It was, all in all, a good season, even if a bit uneven. And I do believe in "learning to win". I think our Twins are very close to being very good. And dangerous. So close in games 1 and 4 with the Astros and seeing what's happened in the rest of the playoffs this year, I can't wait for the offseason and ST to get this thing rolling again. 

[alexlegge]

I predicted 86 wins with the team missing the playoffs. One part of that turned out to be way off.

Optimistic take on the postseason: they created, revived, and/or renewed championship hope for an entire generation of Twins fans.

Pessimistic take on the postseason: they have yet to surpass the Johan-Santana-and-friends mark of 1 win in the ALDS (cemented in 2003 and 2004). Minimal progress made possible only by MLB's flawed postseason expansions?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 10/12/2023 at 11:21 AM, Vanimal46 said:

Do we have a link for the first poll in the winter? From memory I think I said mid 80s wins. First team to 82 wins is the AL Central champ. 

The Twins pretty much met my expectations in the regular season. And obviously exceeded it in the postseason by winning a series. 

Yup, I think I had 85 wins, and 87 is close enough. Winning a playoff series exceeded my expectations