Twins and Astros

[AlwaysinModeration]

Well, it’s four days later than I expected the Twins to face the Astros.  Correa and Vazquez taking on the Fighting Pressleys!

[AlwaysinModeration]

I expect the Twins to put up more runs in this series for two reasons:

1) They’ve now been away from the Denver altitude for a week (except Lewis and Correa) and will have fully readjusted to thicker air and to breaking pitches, and

2) The first two games are in Minute Maid Park, and they have hit lots of home runs this season - a great combo.

[Prince Phillip]

I like going a Ryan/Maeda piggyback for game 1 in Houston. Keeps everyone on regular rest and plays to our strength of pitching depth. Four each from Joe and Kenta, plus a few more runs than we put up vs Jays would be a great start to the series.  

[Trov]

We will be seeing our right handed line up game one.  Wallner, Julien(maybe), and AK will be on bench to start game one.  Julien has been hitting more against lefties and was at least drawing walks against them, but with the starter being a lefty I expect he will start on bench.  

We should put up more runs overall, but we are also more likely to allow more runs.  Ryan scares me on the road for game 1.  I personally would start Maeda game one, and use Ryan as possible pen option, just because Maeda has been much better on road.  I am not going to be upset with Ryan game 1, then slot for game 4 if needed at home though. 

[Craig Arko]

Just now, Trov said:

We will be seeing our right handed line up game one.  Wallner, Julien(maybe), and AK will be on bench to start game one.  Julien has been hitting more against lefties and was at least drawing walks against them, but with the starter being a lefty I expect he will start on bench.  

We should put up more runs overall, but we are also more likely to allow more runs.  Ryan scares me on the road for game 1.  I personally would start Maeda game one, and use Ryan as possible pen option, just because Maeda has been much better on road.  I am not going to be upset with Ryan game 1, then slot for game 4 if needed at home though. 

You are anticipating Valdez gets the nod over Verlander?

[Puckett34]

1 hour ago, Prince Phillip said:

I like going a Ryan/Maeda piggyback for game 1 in Houston. Keeps everyone on regular rest and plays to our strength of pitching depth. Four each from Joe and Kenta, plus a few more runs than we put up vs Jays would be a great start to the series.  

Some combo of Ryan/Maeda or Ober/Paddack is fine for me for games one and four.

[Puckett34]

6 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

You are anticipating Valdez gets the nod over Verlander?

I think I would.  He's getting game one or two for sure.  Flip a coin for game one, either is a solid option.

[Puckett34]

2 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

I think I would.  He's getting game one or two for sure.  Flip a coin for game one, either is a solid option.

Looking at the numbers a little deeper, I think I'd lean on Verlander for game one.  Little more success in the past ~28 days or so

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, Prince Phillip said:

I like going a Ryan/Maeda piggyback for game 1 in Houston. Keeps everyone on regular rest and plays to our strength of pitching depth. Four each from Joe and Kenta, plus a few more runs than we put up vs Jays would be a great start to the series.  

That start is gonna be the scary one especially the Ryan portion of the start.  

[umterp23]

[Puckett34]

4 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Not ideal, but I don't mind it

[ICTwin25]

4 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

Not ideal, but I don't mind it

I love the Saturday time. Great excuse to start drinking the cold ones without my wife judging me 

[RocRedWing]

A bit bummed about this schedule. No evening game for us??

 

[Puckett34]

2 minutes ago, RocRedWing said:

A bit bummed about this schedule. No evening game for us??

 

I mean game 2 starts at 7:03 Central Time

[CRF]

There's nothing I'd like more, than to beat the Stros. That would be FANTASTIC! The pitching matchups kind of scare me though. Ryan needs to really come through. Can't let the homers start to fly all over the place. Our bats need to get going too. 

[tangopudding]

Home games.  Game three is is 3:07, four is TBD (which means a day game again unless a sweep?)  Lame.

[JDBrocks]

I like our odds in this series, strangely enough. Houston only has one lefty, and they Twins have been playing better baseball. Prior to that 4 game streak to win the division, Houston was 9-15 in September, struggling against a schedule almost as easy as the Twins had in the second half. The bats will get going at Minute Maid, and Rocco won't likely be tempted to make pinch hit decisions against a RH bullpen, so the defensive subs will be available when there's a lead.

I'm a pretty optimistic guy most of the time, but usually not in the playoffs. This year feels different.

[umterp23]

I like the late Saturday game and then Sunday night.  Nothing wrong with a few extra hours of rest Saturday to Sunday.  Every little bit helps.  

[IaBeanCounter]

I would switch out Ober for Ryan for the Hou series.  Ryan has pitched 10 innings against Hou given up 9 runs (4 home & 5 away) and 3 HR.  Neither Maeda or Ober pitched against Hou this year.  The following is the road IP, ERA, HR, WHIP and ERA for last 7 games for each pitcher:

Ryan       79.1, 5.22, 20, 1.26 & 4.79

Maeda    59.1, 3.03, 8, 1.04 & 4.41

Ober       68.0, 3.57, 9, 1.06 & 3.53

I can make a strong argument for either Maeda or Ober to start game 1.  If the Twins are as analytical as they claim they wouldn't let Ryan face Hou.  

[JDBrocks]

 

overall better than game 1, but all of the missed calls seemed to go against the Twins. Good plate discipline, Twins.

[laloesch]

Just now, IaBeanCounter said:

I would switch out Ober for Ryan for the Hou series.  Ryan has pitched 10 innings against Hou given up 9 runs (4 home & 5 away) and 3 HR.  Neither Maeda or Ober pitched against Hou this year.  The following is the road IP, ERA, HR, WHIP and ERA for last 7 games for each pitcher:

Ryan       79.1, 5.22, 20, 1.26 & 4.79

Maeda    59.1, 3.03, 8, 1.04 & 4.41

Ober       68.0, 3.57, 9, 1.06 & 3.53

I can make a strong argument for either Maeda or Ober to start game 1.  If the Twins are as analytical as they claim they wouldn't let Ryan face Hou.  

I agree with this.  I'd rather see Ober or even Maeda start than Ryan in game one.  Ryan later in the series would be okay, but not game one.  He just gives up to many homeruns.  

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

I like our odds in this series, strangely enough. Houston only has one lefty, and they Twins have been playing better baseball. Prior to that 4 game streak to win the division, Houston was 9-15 in September, struggling against a schedule almost as easy as the Twins had in the second half. The bats will get going at Minute Maid, and Rocco won't likely be tempted to make pinch hit decisions against a RH bullpen, so the defensive subs will be available when there's a lead.

I'm a pretty optimistic guy most of the time, but usually not in the playoffs. This year feels different.

It will be interesting to see Houston's roster for the series. Framber obviously gets game 1 or 2, but they also have 3 other lefties on their 40-man. Matt Gage only threw 6.2 major league innings this year. Parker Mushinski threw 14.2. And Bennett Sousa through 9. That's not an impressive amount of innings, but the Astros know the Twins tendencies, and I'd be shocked if they aren't carrying at least 1, if not 2, of those guys for the series. If you fear the lefties more than the righties in the Twins lineup (which I think everyone does), and you know you can very likely get at least 2 lefties out of the lineup anytime you want by putting in a lefty of your own, why wouldn't you carry them to be able to take advantage of the Twins being so predictable?

Houston does have the starters to not have to worry about it a ton as they expect Framber and Verlander especially to be able to handle any lineup, but I'd think you'd carry a lefty or 2 in the pen just in case one of those guys struggles, or to be able to be more strategic with Javier/Brown/France in game 3. Starting a lefty opener in game 3 would be an interesting strategy as well for Houston.

[IaBeanCounter]

6 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I agree with this.  I'd rather see Ober or even Maeda start than Ryan in game one.  Ryan later in the series would be okay, but not game one.  He just gives up to many homeruns.  

Ryan at home wouldn't be a bad thing.  In 6 innings he only gave up 3 hits and a walk, the problem was they were all in the same inning, with the last hit being a grand slam.

[laloesch]

Just now, IaBeanCounter said:

Ryan at home wouldn't be a bad thing.  In 6 innings he only gave up 3 hits and a walk, the problem was they were all in the same inning, with the last hit being a grand slam.

Yeah and that's my worry.  He's primarily a fastball pitcher and loses control of the situation quickly with the homeruns.  During the regular season against lesser opponents, it's fine, but in a critical series against a good team not so much.  And don't get me wrong I really do like Ryan's potential.  I think in a few seasons he will become a tremendous pitcher, he's already done a great deal but the over reliance on the fastball is what REALLY worries me against the Astros.  Maybe I'm overreacting a bit, and it will be okay, but game 1?  I don't know. 

[Number3]

The pre series analysis is fine but I am simply glad that it is being played. And what about those great crowds at Target for the wild card round? Now the Twins have a real home field advantage. Only the Phillies crowds matched the Twins' and by the way the Rays were a total embarrassment. Worst playoff attendance since 1919. Twins have now developed a real winning attitude and have to like their chances. Hope the weather cooperates at Target; maybe a little cooler than the 'stros are used to.

[Squirrel]

10 minutes ago, Number3 said:

Now the Twins have a real home field advantage.

Except they don't have home field advantage for this series, and likely not for any remaining series (someone correct me if Im wrong) ... 2 in Houston, 2 at home, 1 in Houston if needed. They will have an advantage, hopefully, when they do play here.

[JDBrocks]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

 likely not for any remaining series (someone correct me if Im wrong)

They'd have homefield in the ALCS if Texas wins.

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, JDBrocks said:

They'd have homefield in the ALCS if Texas wins.

thanks!

Then let's hope Texas beats the O's and we beat the 'stro's 🙂

[RocRedWing]

1 hour ago, Puckett34 said:

I mean game 2 starts at 7:03 Central Time

sorry, should've clarified- no home evening game for game 3 is what I meant! hoping they give us game 4 at night. would love to see Duran's entrance at night again.

[IaBeanCounter]

9 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

They'd have homefield in the ALCS if Texas wins.

They will also have homefield in the World Series if they face AZ.