Twins 2, Blue Jays 0: Minnesota Wins First Playoff Series in 20 Years Behind Dominant Pitching

[Jeff K]

14 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

That was some good coaching and execution on the pickoff play at 2B. Jeffers said on the radio that it was his call to make.

Edit: Gray now talking postgame. Correa told Jeffers and Gray after the 1st inning that the runners on 2B can't hear the third base coach and that the pickoff play could work at some point in the game. Great leader, smart.

That play and how Correa planned and orchestrated it has me entirely "Geeked out"!  Correa's baseball IQ is off the charts.  He could be a manager, front office leader down the road.

[DJL44]

The Twins were clearly more prepared for this series than the Blue Jays. Great job by the guys behind the scenes figuring out how Gausman was tipping the splitter and also the Jays hitters' vulnerability to curveballs. The Jays were outmanaged in several ways.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, dgdynasty said:

ESPN can't believe it!

Some perspective, for anyone seeking perspective. 🙂

[USAFChief]

Those of you bringing up the Darryl Evans pickoff in the 87 ALCS, I had the same vibe

https://fb.watch/nuAcqlYrIq/?mibextid=Gd9JSz

 

Tony Kubek and Bob Costas on the call.

 

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'd be more upset if Rocco all of a sudden decided... OK... NOW... this is when I'm going to let you stay in a face a left hander. 

Rocco has been taking his young left handed hitters out against left handed pitching all year long and he has done it consistently. He has starved them all year long. We know it and the opposing managers know it.

It could be argued that Berrios was taken out of the game while looking incredible because Rocco has been so absolute consistent and predictable in this fashion. They knew before the game that Kikuchi was entering the game early to get those lefties out of the lineup. He was just sticking to the plan.

Kikuchi was up in the pen after the 1st inning. Schneider should have made the switch then but he chickened out. He allowed Berrios to continue so when he finally decided to stick with the plan... the move looked much much worse because Berrios stayed in long enough to look awesome. If Schneider yanks Berrios in the first... he isn't going to be as vilified. Either way.. the plan was in place because Rocco was going to take the lefties out... everybody knew he was going to do this so the Jays decided to help Rocco out. 

The SS Young lefthanded hitters facing left handed pitching (great name for a ship) has sailed... this die has been cast by consistently not letting them face lefties in May, June, July, August and September. You don't start letting them hit against lefties NOW. 

 

Managing the postseason is different than the regular season.  I thought the pinch hitting was very well done these two games.  Most of my issues with the pinch hitting all year were when he did it in non-leverage situations like leading off an inning. I agree wholeheartedly with the moves in the 4th with a chance to break the game open. I also liked leaving Julien in to face Kikucki with the bases empty in the 5th. 

What we saw the last two days was the perfect deployment of the purposefully constructed deep position player roster.  I was very curious what they would have done had they used Kikucki in the 2nd.

No real issues with the bullpen but it was interesting that it was Varland and Theilbar two days in a row.  Not sure that Varland has earned that much faith in high leverage spots just yet. 

39 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

That play and how Correa planned and orchestrated it has me entirely "Geeked out"!  Correa's baseball IQ is off the charts.  He could be a manager, front office leader down the road.

You can’t see all 33m on the field, never could. 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

No real issues with the bullpen but it was interesting that it was Varland and Theilbar two days in a row.  

I have a huge issue with Thielbar coming in. He wasn't going to face Kiermaier, and Chapman was on deck. Right handed hitters put up a .941 OPS against Thielbar this year.

We got lucky. Rocco made a pretty bad decision. 

[Nine of twelve]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I have a huge issue with Thielbar coming in. He wasn't going to face Kiermaier, and Chapman was on deck. Right handed hitters put up a .941 OPS against Thielbar this year.

We got lucky. Rocco made a pretty bad decision. 

I guess this is typical of any fan base. If a manager goes by the book and the decision doesn't work he gets criticized. If a manager goes against the book and the decision doesn't work he gets criticized. If a manager goes by the book and the decision works he gets criticized. If a manager goes against the book and the decision works he gets criticized. It's a lose-lose-lose-lose proposition even after a win.

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Managing the postseason is different than the regular season.  I thought the pinch hitting was very well done these two games.  Most of my issues with the pinch hitting all year were when he did it in non-leverage situations like leading off an inning. I agree wholeheartedly with the moves in the 4th with a chance to break the game open. I also liked leaving Julien in to face Kikucki with the bases empty in the 5th. 

What we saw the last two days was the perfect deployment of the purposefully constructed deep position player roster.  I was very curious what they would have done had they used Kikucki in the 2nd.

No real issues with the bullpen but it was interesting that it was Varland and Theilbar two days in a row.  Not sure that Varland has earned that much faith in high leverage spots just yet. 

I have no issues with Rocco's moves thus far in the playoffs. The club has been run in this direction all year.

My issues are exactly what you stated and to me in the rear view mirror now because it can't be fixed now. 

Taking them out in May, June, July, August and September in non-leverage situations robbed them of the opportunity to get significant swings against lefties which makes the taking them out in the playoffs necessary. 

We have thus far dodged a bullet there but just try to imagine what the lefty vs lefty situation would have been against the Blue Jays if Correa and Lewis were not able to return for the playoffs.

With those two right handed hitters out.

Farmer is now starting at SS and not able to pinch hit for Julien so who pinch hits for Julien when the lefty steps on the mound. Julien would be better equipped for that moment if he was allowed to stay in and battle some lefties in the 5th inning in June. Now you are finally feeding them to lefties on the big stage while avoiding those moment on the lesser stage. 

The obvious roster spot choices to replace Lewis and Correa would have been who?

Larnach, Gallo or Gordon... all left handed?

Celestino who they now can't cut to make room for pitchers because he not only has to be on the roster but he probably would have to play in the playoffs to keep the young left handers away from left handed pitchers.  

Give Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, Helman or Prato not only a 40 man spot but playoff roster spot at the last moment with zero major league AB's under your belt... just so you can keep the young left handed hitters away from lefties and that means not only are they brand new out of the box but also utilized just to keep the young lefties away from Mayza and his left handed ilk.  

Just like you... this is where my issue was... but not now. Correa and Lewis are on the roster... we have the team in place to continue what we have been doing so keep doing what you have been doing. 

I think Rocco has done a fine job so far. Bring on Houston.  

    

[chinmusic]

9 hours ago, UK Twin said:

Correa's experience of playing in Houston and play offs will be vital. And Vasquez for that matter.

This point was going to be the essence of my post, but you beat me to it!

C4 has shown he's a baseball savant.

Can't wait for the Astros series.

And their former catcher Mr Vazquez won't hurt, either.

I feel for Berrios. Double gut punch of getting the hook in the 4th, and having to watch his former team celebrating in his former baseball home.

 

 

[jkcarew]

15 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 

For all of you who didn't care if we made the playoffs because it wasn't going to matter anyway. I didn't understand what you were talking about then and now... well... you know. 

In the second half this team became worthy…it’s about how you’re playing. Completely different team in second half, completely different vibe with Lewis.

Fun with numbers…records against teams over 500…

101-win 2019 Twins: 32-37

87-win 2023 Twins: 37-36

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

In the second half this team became worthy…it’s about how you’re playing. Completely different team in second half, completely different vibe with Lewis.

Fun with numbers…records against teams over 500…

101-win 2019 Twins: 32-37

87-win 2023 Twins: 37-36

It's about how you are playing for sure but it's also about how the other team is playing. Also good runs can stop on a dime and bad runs can also stop on a dime.

The Twins had the 2nd best record in September 18-9.

The Jays was tied for the 8th best record in September 15-13. 

The Twins had the 6th best record in baseball post all star break 42-29.

The Jay had the 11th best record in baseball post all star break 39-32.

Not a ton of difference but the Twins are out trending the Jay entering the playoffs.

However... Consider this. 

The Brewers had the 7th best record in September 17-11

The D-Backs had the 12th best record in September 15-12

The Brewers had the 3rd best record post all-star break 43-28

The D-Backs were tied for the 19th best record post all-star break 32-39 including dropping the last 3 games of the year with everything on the line against the Astros. 

They cleaned Milwaukee's clock.  

You like seeing teams trending correctly at the end of the year but it is always review mirror because every playoff game starts 0-0 and you never know who is going to come up big when needed.

A diving catch by Donovan Solano? 1 run scored by Toronto? 

A rookie with a 5 plus ERA and almost the entire Arizona 18th ranked bullpen combining to out duel Corbin Burnes and possibly the best bullpen in baseball.

Nobody can predict what will happen in July and Nobody can predict what will happen after game 162 concludes.  

I have no idea what is going to happen against the Astros... I'm just thrilled to be able to sit here and wonder what will happen. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I guess this is typical of any fan base. If a manager goes by the book and the decision doesn't work he gets criticized. If a manager goes against the book and the decision doesn't work he gets criticized. If a manager goes by the book and the decision works he gets criticized. If a manager goes against the book and the decision works he gets criticized. It's a lose-lose-lose-lose proposition even after a win.

So in your opinion Thielbar against a RH pinch hitter, and Chapman, with traffic on the bases is a good idea?

He had multiple options. 

[Sutter50]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

So in your opinion Thielbar against a RH pinch hitter, and Chapman, with traffic on the bases is a good idea?

He had multiple options. 

Once Thielbar was in the game he had to face at least 3 batters. Chapman was #2. Bringing Thielbar in got Kiermaier out of the game. Worked out pretty good didn't it?

[Nine of twelve]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

So in your opinion Thielbar against a RH pinch hitter, and Chapman, with traffic on the bases is a good idea?

He had multiple options. 

First, I didn't say what my opinion was. Please don't put words in my mouth.

Second, if the move was successful it was by definition a good idea. This time.

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, Sutter50 said:

Once Thielbar was in the game he had to face at least 3 batters. Chapman was #2. Bringing Thielbar in got Kiermaier out of the game. 

Yes I'm aware of the rules.

You're making my point. Nobody cares about "getting Kiermaier out of the game." Bringing Thielbar into the game meant a very high possibility he'd be facing three right hand hitters. RH hitters hit Thielbar hard. Theilbar hadn't gotten a GIDP turned behind him all season. Chapman was ?6? Inches from a game tying double.

We got really lucky. Bringing Thielbar into that situation was about the worst use of his pen Rocco could have made.

 

[USAFChief]

48 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Second, if the move was successful it was by definition a good idea. This time.

That's not true, and you know it. If I drive home drunk without getting into an accident that doesn't make it a good decision. Taking a card on 18 when the dealer has a 6 showing isn't a good idea, even if I hit a 3.

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

That's not true, and you know it. If I drive home drunk without getting into an accident that doesn't make it a good decision. Taking a card on 18 when the dealer has a 6 showing isn't a good idea, even if I hit a 3.

Flawed analogies. In the first analogy potential consequences weigh much more heavily on the decision. Baseball is not life and death, nor are there potential legal issues. In the second analogy, managers have more information than pure statistical probabilities. In blackjack that's not the case.

Many people criticize Baldelli for relying too heavily on analytics and not taking other factors into account. Not having been privy to the decision making process I don't know the details, but it appears that this was a case where he did take other factors into account. Would it have been better if he had brought in Pagan? We'll never know, but the outcome of having anyone else pitch could not have been better than the outcome of having Thielbar pitch. For the other side of the coin we need look no further than the same game. Schneider went with the statistical probabilities on his decision to pull Berrios in the fourth inning in favor of Kikuchi and that did not succeed. Not putting words in your mouth, just asking a question: do you believe Schneider's decision was the correct one and Baldelli's was the incorrect one?

 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Flawed analogies. In the first analogy potential consequences weigh much more heavily on the decision. Baseball is not life and death, nor are there potential legal issues. In the second analogy, managers have more information than pure statistical probabilities. In blackjack that's not the case.

Many people criticize Baldelli for relying too heavily on analytics and not taking other factors into account. Not having been privy to the decision making process I don't know the details, but it appears that this was a case where he did take other factors into account. Would it have been better if he had brought in Pagan? We'll never know, but the outcome of having anyone else pitch could not have been better than the outcome of having Thielbar pitch. For the other side of the coin we need look no further than the same game. Schneider went with the statistical probabilities on his decision to pull Berrios in the fourth inning in favor of Kikuchi and that did not succeed. Not putting words in your mouth, just asking a question: do you believe Schneider's decision was the correct one and Baldelli's was the incorrect one?

 

I can't believe Toronto pulled Berrios.

Idiotic. Berrios was dominating and had tons left in the tank. That decision was made by some math nerd somewhere probably the night prior. Analytics run amuck.

But again, that's not based on post results analysis, as is your "it worked, ergo it was correct" logic.

BTW those two analogies are perfect examples of the same logic. "It worked, therefore I made the correct decision."

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I can't believe Toronto pulled Berrios.

Idiotic. Berrios was dominating and had tons left in the tank. That decision was made by some math nerd somewhere probably the night prior. Analytics run amuck.

But again, that's not based on post results analysis, as is your "it worked, ergo it was correct" logic.

BTW those two analogies are perfect examples of the same logic. "It worked, therefore I made the correct decision."

I completely agree about the Berrios/Kikuchi decision. We don't know whether that cost them the game because the Jays didn't score any runs but geez. As I said in another thread I think analytics are important, and the "early hook" philosophy probably does work over the course of the regular season because it's a sample size of dozens of games. But the "here and now" of the situation is much more important in the postseason than during the regular season. I suppose if Berrios had not been dominating replacing him there may have made sense. Otherwise, not so much. And BTW don't place responsibility on anyone other than the manager. When it comes to on-field decisions he has veto power over anything the front office says.

[USAFChief]

17 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

 And BTW don't place responsibility on anyone other than the manager. When it comes to on-field decisions he has veto power over anything the front office says.

Five years ago I'd have agreed 100 percent. Now, I'm not sure. He SHOULD have the final say. 

There are plenty here, for example, who claim firing Rocco would make no difference because he isn't calling the shots. 

I doubt that, but I'm no longer absolutely certain.