Twins Announce Wild Card Roster

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd have carried Larnach over a 12th arm that has no chance of appearing in the series.

On my depth chart the 12th arm is Griffin Jax.

[Beast]

Really disappointed that Buxton can’t go.  Say what you want, but even as a pinch runner or pinch hitter against a lefty, he could make a huge impact if somewhat healthy.

Id also like to see Larnach, if healthy.  Pinch hitter for Taylor late in the game against a righty.

But, as stated, nothing egregious here.  

[DJL44]

Somewhat notable for who ISN'T on the roster: Gallo, Keuchel, Buxton, Larnach, Luplow and the relievers who pitched most of the bullpen innings during the season.

[BsuNemo]

19 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I felt that Ober was the better pitcher than Ryan the last 2-3 starts.  Unfortunately, the Twins made the decision early and lined up Ryan for the #3 starter and then he tanks and Ober is brilliant.  Too late to swap them since Ober went on Sunday.  Hopefully, we win in 2 and this is moot.  If not, then I'd be ready to plug in Varland, Maeda or Paddack on short notice in game #3 at any sign of troubles for Ryan.

Maybe if we go two we can still start Ober in game one of the divisional series then on to Lopez and Gray.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I hope Rocco doesn't fall for the LH relief pitcher coming in early and PH for Julien and/or Kirilloff early.  Leave them in.  The "leverage situation" bullpen arms for the Blue Jays are all RH. 

The Twins have been extremely aggressive in this regard all season.  Why would you expect any changes in the postseason?  Especially considering runs are historically harder to come by in the postseason...

High leverage situations in the 4th inning are just as, if not more important, than in the later innings.  A known quantity early vs a potential quantity later.  This has been the approach. 

Ride her till she bucks you or don't ride at all.  

[Daniel Anderson]

One thing to watch is how bad the visibility is for hitters with these late afternoon starts. If it's a big factor it might favor starting a predominantly breaking ball pitcher (Maeda) over Ryan. If you remember the game Sonny pitched with all of the strikeouts - that was a sunny late afternoon start and hitters seemed helpless against his breaking pitches.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

No chance?

One short start or one extra inning game and there's a good chance.

So far only the Brewers and Rays are going with 11. Texas has 13 pitchers for the wild card round. 

 

Nobody used more than 10 last year even though there were short starts and extra inning games.

And the Brewers and Rays are the teams run most like the Twins in that they'll play to platoon advantages with their bats more. Thus carrying the extra hitter to be able to make more moves throughout the game. Texas has a pretty set lineup and they won't be doing a lot of pinch hitting.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

On my depth chart the 12th arm is Griffin Jax.

Him, Paddack, or Funderburk would've been my 12th guy to not make the roster.

[BsuNemo]

19 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The Twins have been extremely aggressive in this regard all season.  Why would you expect any changes in the postseason?  Especially considering runs are historically harder to come by in the postseason...

High leverage situations in the 4th inning are just as, if not more important, than in the later innings.  A known quantity early vs a potential quantity later.  This has been the approach. 

Ride her till she bucks you or don't ride at all.  

She has bucked Baldelli in those situations pretty much all year long.  We can't get stuck with AK and Julien on the bench in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.

[In My La Z boy]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Him, Paddack, or Funderburk would've been my 12th guy to not make the roster.

Had to take the 2nd lefty in my opinion. Ober slated to start game 1 of the next round if we make it. Probably stack Ryan and Maeda for game 3 if we get there. I also liked taking Stephenson, and leaving Buck off. Stephenson will get into every game at some point. Just not fair to the team to take Buck, and last time we saw him at the plate was the last time we wanted to see him at the plate. Feel sorry for him. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

6 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

She has bucked Baldelli in those situations pretty much all year long.  We can't get stuck with AK and Julien on the bench in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.

Awfully hard to argue with this approach when in all of MLB, the Twins are ranked 10th in runs scored and lead all of baseball with +74 runs in September. 

This is with Correa, Buxton, and Vazquez either not playing or playing terribly all year long.

 

[BsuNemo]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Awfully hard to argue with this approach when in all of MLB, the Twins are ranked 10th in runs scored and lead all of baseball with +74 runs in September. 

This is with Correa, Buxton, and Vazquez either not playing or playing terribly all year long.

 

I'll argue it in the sense that Baldelli once again underperformed the pythogorean wins/losses.  The only season he has met or exceeded was 2019 with a juiced ball.  There were games left on the table this year because of his "strategy" we can't afford that in the playoffs.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Had to take the 2nd lefty in my opinion. Ober slated to start game 1 of the next round if we make it. Probably stack Ryan and Maeda for game 3 if we get there. I also liked taking Stephenson, and leaving Buck off. Stephenson will get into every game at some point. Just not fair to the team to take Buck, and last time we saw him at the plate was the last time we wanted to see him at the plate. Feel sorry for him. 

I don't see a huge need for the 2nd lefty in this series. Varsho had a .674 OPS this year. Kiermaier was .741. Biggio .710. Belt is their only legit lefty (.859 OPS). Are we really going to pull one of our late inning leverage arms for Funderburk just to face Belt? Most likely use of Funderburk is if Belt comes up with 2 outs in the 4th, 5th, or 6th innings. I don't think that's wildly valuable.

Stephenson is a really nice postseason piece for sure. His legs will likely come into play at some point. Buxton is so tough. Horrible watching his body betray him like this.

[MABB1959]

59 minutes ago, Beast said:

Really disappointed that Buxton can’t go.  Say what you want, but even as a pinch runner or pinch hitter against a lefty, he could make a huge impact if somewhat healthy.

Id also like to see Larnach, if healthy.  Pinch hitter for Taylor late in the game against a righty.

But, as stated, nothing egregious here.  

Can he run?

[Woof Bronzer]

49 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The Twins have been extremely aggressive in this regard all season.  Why would you expect any changes in the postseason?  Especially considering runs are historically harder to come by in the postseason...

High leverage situations in the 4th inning are just as, if not more important, than in the later innings.  A known quantity early vs a potential quantity later.  This has been the approach. 

Ride her till she bucks you or don't ride at all.  

I agree that Rocco will keep doing this - if I was the Jays I'd be tempted to throw out a lefty opener.  At a minimum the first reliever off the bench should be a lefty.  

I don't agree that this is a smart approach, or that it works.  If you clear out your bench in the 4th you're looking at a situation where your season is on the line and La Tortuga is at the plate.   

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, BsuNemo said:

Anyone know - not that this is the right thing to do but - if Lewis tweaks it again (please no) can we add Buxton at that point?  I wouldn't think we'd have to play a person short if we have an injury.  Along those same lines - if we pull Lewis, could he theoretically be added to the next series or does he have to be out for a certain amount of time?

yes but I believe in that case Lewis would have to sit out the rest of this series AND next series.

[Battle ur tail off]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Somewhat notable for who ISN'T on the roster: Gallo, Keuchel, Buxton, Larnach, Luplow and the relievers who pitched most of the bullpen innings during the season.

Here is what this shows and the reason we have a chance this year. DEPTH! Finally we aren't going into a playoff series with 2-3 huge holes in the lineup or in the field with only about 4-5 decent arms both rotation and bullpen. 

This roster is ready. Come on, let's get it boys.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Daniel Anderson said:

One thing to watch is how bad the visibility is for hitters with these late afternoon starts.

Not an issue. It’s cloudy with no shadows. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I agree that Rocco will keep doing this - if I was the Jays I'd be tempted to throw out a lefty opener.  At a minimum the first reliever off the bench should be a lefty.  

I don't agree that this is a smart approach, or that it works.  If you clear out your bench in the 4th you're looking at a situation where your season is on the line and La Tortuga is at the plate.   

I would be interested to see a deeper dive into this.  On the surface, what you are saying has merit, but without knowing more results, it's just optics (ie it looks bad and leaves the bench vulnerable)

How many times did it really leave the bench short in vital situations?
What was successful, what wasn't?
How many times did it result in the wrong matchups in later innings?
Was the PH in the 4th inning more vital to a win than an 8th inning opportunity?

On the top, there is a pretty good argument for it's effectiveness:  Buxton, Correa, Vazquez, took a ton of horrible PA.  Add in Gallo, Miranda, Gordon on the lower end of that spectrum and they still finished in the top 3rd offensively.  You could say they got the most out of their rookies and bench guys by protecting them and putting them into positions to be successful.

 

[East Coast Twin]

9 hours ago, dberthia said:

Hopefully Lewis can contribute.

I hope so too.  🙂

[jkcarew]

5 pitchers used on a strong start. Why do people think 12 pitchers would ‘never’ be used? It’s playoff baseball, matchups will be leveraged more often…and extra innings can go forever. When setting the roster, you pretty much need to assume 3 tight games with at least one going to extras. 

[South Dakota Tom]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

5 pitchers used on a strong start. Why do people think 12 pitchers would ‘never’ be used? It’s playoff baseball, matchups will be leveraged more often…and extra innings can go forever. When setting the roster, you pretty much need to assume 3 tight games with at least one going to extras. 

Not disagreeing but with the “3 batters or end an inning” rule you need fewer relievers.  Plus with the 2nd round starting on Saturday, all relievers get at least 1 day off so any of them (other than a long guy or starter) could pitch all 3 games.

I do worry about the LH opener or RH opener if Rocco subs out 3 hitters in the early innings.  Would be nice to have a Larnach or Luplow to cycle back to when they go LRL or RLR for a couple innings each. 

Maybe best just to smoke them tomorrow!

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, BsuNemo said:

I'm really afraid of Ryan as our game three starter.  I wish they would have swapped him and Maeda or Ober.  He struggled at the end of the year last year and again this year.  With a lefty probably going in game three for Toronto, runs may be hard to come by and Ryan is giving up a TON of deep balls still.

Seeing Toronto with 3 lefties makes me think teams are on to Baldelli and his early substitutions - want Julien, Kiriloff and or any other left handed hitter out of the line up early - make an early switch to a lefty.  Baldelli has done this early and often knowing that there will still be right handed pitcher in the game later on.  I hope his analytics have shown him that taking our best hitters out for one AB even though they'll get more ABs later in the game isn't the right move.

Sitting here with my Puckett jersey on - come on Kirby, shine a little game 6 magic down on us today.

Let's just hope that there is no need for a game three!

[TopGunn#22]

Varland came in and threw 2 pitches and the inning ended and then Theilbar came out to start the next inning.  I will never quite understand the strategy of warming a pitcher up (and a VALUED pitcher you're going to rely on in the playoffs) having him throw 2 pitches, end the inning, and then remove him from the game even if a LH hitter was leading the next inning off.  I'm just too old school to believe that a good pitcher can get a good hitter out regardless of the splits.  THIS is why teams carry so many pitchers in the playoffs, even in a 3 game series.