Does Injury Help Twins Position for Shohei Ohtani?

[Ted Schwerzler]

There are a handful of free agents set to hit the open market this offseason, and the Minnesota Twins will need to supplement their roster with a few of them. After Shohei Ohtani’s UCL injury, does the chance he plays home games at Target Field become more likely?

 

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The short answer is probably No, but we can at least add probably in front of it with the payday becoming a bit more muted. Before Shohei Ohtani blew out his elbow, he was set to get something north of $600 million in free agency and potentially an ownership stake in a new team. With the Los Angeles Dodgers having had a conservative offseason, it seemed they would take the biggest run at the superstar.

But what now?

The likelihood that Ohtani still gets something north of $500 million remains high. He will ultimately undergo a second Tommy John surgery, and while he could opt against pitching in the future, the possibility remains for at least the next few years. Teams could look at him as a reliever in an effort to limit innings, and his bat is always going to play. No matter how you slice it though, he’s a lesser version of what was expected to hit the market.

After the Twins spent $200 million on Carlos Correa, and $100 million on Byron Buxton, it’s hard to envision them handing out $300-$500 million for Ohtani. Even in a depreciated state, Ohtani will have the biggest suitors and should be the most coveted free agent we’ve seen maybe ever. The possibility that he takes a short-term deal is remote at best, but the way the market responds to what he’s expected to be remains to be seen.

When Ohtani was coming to Major League Baseball from Japan, it seemed as though Minnesota had at least some shot to land his services. The ability to pay a higher posting fee made them a late contender, and it wasn’t until the Twins sent international bonus pool dollars to the Angels and the Mariners that they were completely out of it. Now they’ll have significantly more hurdles to clear, and money is not even across the board.

The Twins contract with Bally Sports North ends after the 2023 season, and there is reason to believe they could take a step backwards in payroll with uncertainty surrounding the TV contract. Maybe the lackluster performance by Correa in Year 1 of his long-term contract is enough to divert this front office from more mega deals, and anyone else signed to more than $100 million would be the third deal they have done in the past three seasons.

Still, the most unlikely reason for Ohtani rests on his shoulders.

The New York Yankees will make a run at the talented two-way player, but he has seemed less than enthused about the idea of the east coast. Minnesota is in the Midwest, but that doesn’t compare to the allure of Los Angeles, or maybe even Seattle should he choose to follow in the footsteps of Ichiro Suzuki.

Beyond location, the fit for Ohtani becomes less straightforward as well. We have seen Rocco Baldelli hamstrung this season with Buxton being locked into the designated hitter spot. It wasn’t until other players broke out, and Buxton again got hurt, that the true benefit of a fluid designated hitter was felt. Maybe Ohtani would learn a corner outfield spot, or first base, if he isn’t going to pitch. Short of that though, paying an extreme amount of money for a bat-only talent is a stretch for an organization like Minnesota.

When Ohtani does wind up signing a new deal, he’ll likely already have undergone surgery and began the rehab process. He has been through this before, and we have seen surgery advance to a place where the procedure is rarely a death sentence in baseball. Regardless, there still will be no indication as to what he returns like until a new team sees him on the field.

The day Ohtani’s elbow blew out unquestionably cost him a bunch of money. That probably opened up the door for a few new potential suitors, but it also likely gave teams pause as to how he’ll fit and what he can be used as. Regardless, Minnesota is a long shot at best, and the Twins probably aren’t even making an offer for a guy that might not pitch.

This front office has paid guys like Michael Pineda and Chris Paddack while they have rehabbed, only with an eye on future benefit. Ohtani is looking for his big payday, and a two or three year deal isn’t happening. The fit for any fan base is a fun one, even if he winds up being a lesser version than what we have come to know. Target Field will have new faces in 2024, but don’t expect Ohtani to be among them.

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[darwin22]

Please cease and desist with this nonsense!   There is beyond zero chance the Twins are even in the next room to the conversation of Ohtani signing in Minnesota.

[DJL44]

Minnesota offers almost nothing for endorsements and Ohtani is the most marketable player in MLB. If he comes to MN he will be leaving at least $200M in endorsement money on the table.

[mnfireman]

No.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Having him on the team would be fantastic.  IF he can recover completely from the Tommy John surgery.  IF he can remain the very good pitcher he is.  IF he continues to hit like he has.  Without the injury, the world was talking about the first $500M contract, which is beyond the reach of most teams, including the Twins.  With the injury there are vastly too many unknowns and I don't want to sign a contract that could hamstring the team payroll for the better part of a decade.  Could somebody get lucky and have him make a complete recovery?  Probably, but it doesn't seem likely given that this is surgery number two.  Count me out on Ohtani and let's split up our spending among several new players and perhaps some extensions.

[olerud]

One of the dumbest articles I've ever seen!

[Beast]

There is zero chance that the Twins would lay out the kind of contract to sign Ohtani.  Especially with the Correa contract on the books.

There is zero chance Ohtani would have any interest in coming to Minnesota.

Who wants to come to this dumpster fire (of a State and a baseball team)?  Who wants to be part of the most laughable losing streak in postseason history in any sport (when the division incompetent enough for us to sneak in)?  Who wants to be part of half-assed rosters, where investments in players are made more for PR purposes than to win (look at this damn bullpen, you can’t tell me they’re trying).  Who wants to come in and perpetually kick the can down the road waiting for some fairy tale wave of prospects that has never and will never arrive while you waste your career away in obscurity?

We used to be able to sell Minneapolis as a pristine, safe, vibrant, artistic, innovative, etc. city with a low cost of living.  Now it’s just a dump with one of the highest state tax rates in the country.  No better quality of life or less corrupt than any other city with a team.  You’d do just as well to live in LA or NY.  The only difference is the market is smaller.  Oh, and Minnesota Nice hasn’t been thing  in the City for decades.

I’ve been a Twins fan for my entire life, and even I wouldn’t sign with this franchise right now without a huge premium.  Why in God’s name would one of the biggest international athletes in the world (in any sport) come to baseball and purgatory?

[twins_89]

I'll be very surprised if Ohtani doesn't sign with a team on the west coast. I'm not sure why there's even a discussion on him coming to Minnesota, it just isn't happening.

[Brandon]

I’ll bite.  Minnesota does have money coming off the books and amazingly good rookies are playing their way on to the roster to help keep payroll down so we can afford to make a splash if we wanted to.  But as cool as it would be to sign Ohtani, I think we could sign a different big name player though.  Maybe a Sony Gray extension at 23 million per season.  But really this offseason should be pretty low key.  Sign a reliever and another few dumpster diving for relievers by signing 3 or 4 to a minor league deal.  Sign a starting pitcher, I guess Gordon and Castro can compete for the platoon CF with Buxton so no need to sign someone for that.  Though if they want to resign Taylor I am all for that.  He probably wants to start full time…. Next sign a depth starter and additional AAA depth in case of injuries and we should be all set.  

[saviking]

15 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Please cease and desist with this nonsense!   There is beyond zero chance the Twins are even in the next room to the conversation of Ohtani signing in Minnesota.

Yes, it's a pipe dream because the Twins already blew their wad on an aging shortstop. 

[HokieRif]

Meh… we already have enough broken multi-millionaire players on the long-term payroll. We don’t need to triple that obligation on one more unless we can unload Buxton without eating dead money, and put a healing spell on Correa’s ankle to protect it for the length of his contract. 
 

if I had to make a guess Ohtani is going to end up in SF or LA. If either of those teams had the will and the way (they do) he’s going to end up there…. Unless the Yankees make him the first $1B player. 

[Tibs]

No

[MMMordabito]

Didn't somebody already write about this and the Angel's waivered players.  Why the need for redundant posts? Content Farm?

[Minny505]

Well, in my son's Road to the Show career, the Twins signed Ohtani in FA after the 2023 season. 

So...maybe there's a chance? 😬🤞

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Tibs said:

No

Correct.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

Yes, it's a pipe dream because the Twins already blew their wad on an aging shortstop. 

Aging?  Correa is 28 YOA.

[Riverbrian]

I didn't read the article... Just the Headline. 

But the Answer is.

No it doesn't 

[saviking]

21 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Aging?  Correa is 28 YOA.

His game is aging. Bad foot and ankle and he's probably seen his better days as a player. If we were paying him 18-20 million I be okay with it, maybe but the fact we have two studs in the wings like Lewis and Lee makes me even question why we signed him the second go around.