Does Injury Help Twins Position for Shohei Ohtani?

The short answer is probably No, but we can at least add probably in front of it with the payday becoming a bit more muted. Before Shohei Ohtani blew out his elbow, he was set to get something north of $600 million in free agency and potentially an ownership stake in a new team. With the Los Angeles Dodgers having had a conservative offseason, it seemed they would take the biggest run at the superstar.

But what now?

The likelihood that Ohtani still gets something north of $500 million remains high. He will ultimately undergo a second Tommy John surgery, and while he could opt against pitching in the future, the possibility remains for at least the next few years. Teams could look at him as a reliever in an effort to limit innings, and his bat is always going to play. No matter how you slice it though, he’s a lesser version of what was expected to hit the market.

After the Twins spent $200 million on Carlos Correa, and $100 million on Byron Buxton, it’s hard to envision them handing out $300-$500 million for Ohtani. Even in a depreciated state, Ohtani will have the biggest suitors and should be the most coveted free agent we’ve seen maybe ever. The possibility that he takes a short-term deal is remote at best, but the way the market responds to what he’s expected to be remains to be seen.

When Ohtani was coming to Major League Baseball from Japan, it seemed as though Minnesota had at least some shot to land his services. The ability to pay a higher posting fee made them a late contender, and it wasn’t until the Twins sent international bonus pool dollars to the Angels and the Mariners that they were completely out of it. Now they’ll have significantly more hurdles to clear, and money is not even across the board.

The Twins contract with Bally Sports North ends after the 2023 season, and there is reason to believe they could take a step backwards in payroll with uncertainty surrounding the TV contract. Maybe the lackluster performance by Correa in Year 1 of his long-term contract is enough to divert this front office from more mega deals, and anyone else signed to more than $100 million would be the third deal they have done in the past three seasons.

Still, the most unlikely reason for Ohtani rests on his shoulders.

The New York Yankees will make a run at the talented two-way player, but he has seemed less than enthused about the idea of the east coast. Minnesota is in the Midwest, but that doesn’t compare to the allure of Los Angeles, or maybe even Seattle should he choose to follow in the footsteps of Ichiro Suzuki.

Beyond location, the fit for Ohtani becomes less straightforward as well. We have seen Rocco Baldelli hamstrung this season with Buxton being locked into the designated hitter spot. It wasn’t until other players broke out, and Buxton again got hurt, that the true benefit of a fluid designated hitter was felt. Maybe Ohtani would learn a corner outfield spot, or first base, if he isn’t going to pitch. Short of that though, paying an extreme amount of money for a bat-only talent is a stretch for an organization like Minnesota.

When Ohtani does wind up signing a new deal, he’ll likely already have undergone surgery and began the rehab process. He has been through this before, and we have seen surgery advance to a place where the procedure is rarely a death sentence in baseball. Regardless, there still will be no indication as to what he returns like until a new team sees him on the field.

The day Ohtani’s elbow blew out unquestionably cost him a bunch of money. That probably opened up the door for a few new potential suitors, but it also likely gave teams pause as to how he’ll fit and what he can be used as. Regardless, Minnesota is a long shot at best, and the Twins probably aren’t even making an offer for a guy that might not pitch.

This front office has paid guys like Michael Pineda and Chris Paddack while they have rehabbed, only with an eye on future benefit. Ohtani is looking for his big payday, and a two or three year deal isn’t happening. The fit for any fan base is a fun one, even if he winds up being a lesser version than what we have come to know. Target Field will have new faces in 2024, but don’t expect Ohtani to be among them.