Planning Minnesota's Perfect 2023 Trade Deadline

[Fatbat]

The perfect trade would be no trades. Bring up Lee and work him into the team in mid August. Same with David Festa or any other hot hand in the minors. …. Well except that bucket of baseballs for Gallo, that would be a win/win. 

[BsuNemo]

The perfect trade deadline (minus any of the huge possibilities) - Bellinger and he plays out the season as he started the season, brings winning and leadership and shows he's finally healthy again and we resign him for 3 years so we don't have to have a MAT type player there every day again next year (I appreciate what MAT is but it's not an every day Centerfielder). 

Hader and Robertson to shut the door when our starters pitch lights out. 

Then we stay healthy, Lewis comes back and rakes, Polo is truly healthy and rakes and buck takes a few days away, gets his head on straight and figures it out down the stretch. Then we've got a fighting chance. 

 

[Doc Munson]

13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well.  Here are the stats for the last 6 weeks.  

	wRC+
Edouard Julien	182
Ryan Jeffers	153
Royce Lewis	138
Max Kepler	138
Alex Kirilloff	123
Donovan Solano	123
Kyle Farmer	112
Carlos Correa	98
Willi Castro	90
Matt Wallner	82
Joey Gallo	79
Christian Vazquez	66
Michael A. Taylor	64
Byron Buxton	53
	ERA
Emilio Pagan	1.13
Jordan Balazovic	1.29
Griffin Jax	1.88
Kenta Maeda	2.48
Oliver Ortega	2.77
Bailey Ober	2.93
Jhoan Duran	2.93
Pablo Lopez	4.15
Sonny Gray	4.81
Jovani Moran	5.4
Joe Ryan	5.75

So you are saying we should trade Joe Ryan?

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

So you are saying we should trade Joe Ryan?

You are assuming NOT trading away players that are playing well presently suggests that players that have not been playing well lately should be traded.  I did not suggest this in anyway nor do I believe it has any merit. 

[Brandon27]

Another options are josh hader from the Padres or Barlow from the royals 

[Karbo]

21 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Let's get this out of the way early:

TRADE GALLO, KEPLER, AND PAGAN FOR ANYTHING!!!

Sorry, had to appease the masses...

I can go along with Gallo and Pagan, but if they get rid of Pagan they will need to add at least 2 and probably 3 relievers. Pagan is doing better in low leverage situations this year, however, due to the fact the FO did nothing to add any decent relievers in the off season he is one of the 5 or 6 relievers on the team. Kind of sad huh!

[Karbo]

18 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

There are only 3 reasons a team should be buyers at the deadline;

1. The team is a strong contender to make/win the World Series, and they need to shore up their only weakness or turn an area of average performance into a strength
2. The team is building to the next year, and acts to acquire players with additional control, rather than wait until the offseason
3. The deal on offer is just too good to pass up, even if the team isn't really going anywhere

I don't think point 1 applies to this year's team, so the Twins should only be looking for players that are undervalued by their current team, or have additional control (but please, no more trades for oft-injured players or players with a SSS of success).

I would not trade for a reliever under almost any circumstances, as relievers are just so variable.  As has already been pointed out, I would much prefer to see which of our young guys find success down the stretch.

Given all of this, I would not be buying unless it is a game-changing move (Ohtani or Soto) and I just can't see the Twins being willing to give up the prospects necessary for those players (unless the Angels lose their minds, and think Varland, Festa, Raya, Prielipp, and SWR are all going to be #2 starters, and are willing to take those 5 in return for Ohtani).

I do think we need relievers. We have Duran and Jax that can be counted on. Stewart and Thielbar should be back soon hopefully. That leaves 4 more spots. Duran and Jax have been overused due to the lack of depth behind them. Even if Stewart and Thielbar come back there is still a need for at least 2 more guys that are at least semi reliable to help carry the load. In todays game it is so much 1 and done they need 3 relievers per game. and if you keep trotting out the same guys over and over again it can only lead to burned out arms by mid sept.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, GKuehl said:

If we can trade Gallo for anything (including a bucket of baseballs) we should.

He’s clogging up the roster and impeding our ability to determine whether Larnach and Wallner should be core players to build around. Gallo’s OPS is propped up by a red-hot May, and he’s playing like the same player who got boo’ed out of New York last year. Time to cut our losses and either trade him to a team looking for a power-hitting pinch hitter or DFA him so Larnach or Wallner can get an extended look, especially since they can’t play any worse than Gallo has this season. 

A lot of grief about Gallo, and that's understandable, but does anyone honestly think that he has any trade value at this point?

[Riverbrian]

Teoscar strikes out too much for my tastes.

I'd want more contact and I'd want a rental to bring the costs down a bit. 

[Doctor Wu]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

The perfect trade would be no trades. Bring up Lee and work him into the team in mid August. Same with David Festa or any other hot hand in the minors. …. Well except that bucket of baseballs for Gallo, that would be a win/win. 

I sort of think you have the right idea. Some interesting names being floated as trade targets, and a few of them would certainly help our team down the stretch, but at what cost? I really really really don't want to give up any valuable prospects at this point for players that "might" win us a couple of extra games. Just roll with what we have and hope for the best. If we are healthy --- sure, that's a big "if" -- I think this team can actually win a playoff series. 

[Linus]

Two bullpen arms and a competent right handed hitting outfielder. You could copy and paste this every year for as far back as when they obtained Jake Cave. One would the the genius boys would see a pattern here. 

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Brandon27 said:

Another options are josh hader from the Padres or Barlow from the royals 

Sounds like the Padres aren't selling.

Which is foolish in my book.

[Minny505]

On 7/25/2023 at 9:12 AM, Major League Ready said:

We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well.  Here are the stats for the last 6 weeks.  

	wRC+
Edouard Julien	182
Ryan Jeffers	153
Royce Lewis	138
Max Kepler	138
Alex Kirilloff	123
Donovan Solano	123
Kyle Farmer	112
Carlos Correa	98
Willi Castro	90
Matt Wallner	82
Joey Gallo	79
Christian Vazquez	66
Michael A. Taylor	64
Byron Buxton	53
	ERA
Emilio Pagan	1.13
Jordan Balazovic	1.29
Griffin Jax	1.88
Kenta Maeda	2.48
Oliver Ortega	2.77
Bailey Ober	2.93
Jhoan Duran	2.93
Pablo Lopez	4.15
Sonny Gray	4.81
Jovani Moran	5.4
Joe Ryan	5.75

Color me skeptical that after 3500 MLB PAs, Kepler finally turned the corner we have been waiting for him to turn for 4 years. 

Sell high.

It's likely the Twins can replace his league average production with some combination of Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Gordon, Buxton, and/or a RH COF trade acquisition.

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/25/2023 at 12:12 PM, Major League Ready said:

We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well.  Here are the stats for the last 6 weeks.  

	wRC+
Edouard Julien	182
Ryan Jeffers	153
Royce Lewis	138
Max Kepler	138
Alex Kirilloff	123
Donovan Solano	123
Kyle Farmer	112
Carlos Correa	98
Willi Castro	90
Matt Wallner	82
Joey Gallo	79
Christian Vazquez	66
Michael A. Taylor	64
Byron Buxton	53
	ERA
Emilio Pagan	1.13
Jordan Balazovic	1.29
Griffin Jax	1.88
Kenta Maeda	2.48
Oliver Ortega	2.77
Bailey Ober	2.93
Jhoan Duran	2.93
Pablo Lopez	4.15
Sonny Gray	4.81
Jovani Moran	5.4
Joe Ryan	5.75

I would assume Emilio’s ERA jumped a bit after the HR last night in the 8th, while getting only one out………that’s 27 runs per 9 innings.

Kepler seems to be getting past his 2 hits per week phase……solid performer with a little XBH pop lately. Very encouraging.

Pagan needs bases empty to start when he throws. Should write it down on dugout wall!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

Color me skeptical that after 3500 MLB PAs, Kepler finally turned the corner we have been waiting for him to turn for 4 years. 

Sell high.

It's likely the Twins can replace his league average production with some combination of Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Gordon, Buxton, and/or a RH COF trade acquisition.

Am trying to be confident in Max but I can’t argue your points.

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/25/2023 at 2:22 PM, IndianaTwin said:

If we're talking "Perfect 2023 Trade Deadline," let's add the Twins going at least 3-2 the rest of the week and Cleveland going no better than 2-4. That puts Cleveland four games under .500 and 5.5 games back and hopefully makes them fully enter "sell" mode, depleting themselves a little further for future years. 

Cleveland’s 2 best starters are on the 60 day IL…….neither available, even if healed, until late September. We can’t seriously be worried about them. Their schedule is going to light them up in the very near future!

7 with White Sox

3 with Houston

4 with Toronto

3 with Tampa 

3 with Cincinnati

13 of 20 games against very good competition.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

A lot of grief about Gallo, and that's understandable, but does anyone honestly think that he has any trade value at this point?

Quite possibly not.  He can be DFA'ed to open a roster spot, assuming the FO sees it that way.  In that case, they are on the hook for his remaining salary anyway.  And so, it is no cost to them to instead offer to cover his salary if there are multiple candidate teams who would sign him for major league minimum after he's a free agent.  So any possible trade value IMO will come from this approach, via a very, very minor bidding war while he can still be traded.

[bigdave]

I am good with bringing in a relief pitcher like Robertson, if the cost isn't too high. No Spencer Steer or Yennier Cano trades this year, please?

We also need to clear the roster of the logjam of veterans who are being unproductive. Gallo and Buxton top the list. They both swing wildly at any pitch near the zone and don't come near most of them.

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/25/2023 at 4:08 PM, specialiststeve said:

A bit skimpy on the options... 

Here is a better look at the options... 

https://theathletic.com/4716877/2023/07/25/mlb-trade-deadline-teams-players-rumors/

Max has been playing MUCH better... perfect time to move him... Maybe Dylan Carlson or O'Neil from the Cards...

Teoscar would be nice also. 

Bullpen arms are anyones guess ... so many out there. PLEASE do not overspend... See Lopez trade.. 

FO, Please take a look at reality before trades:

2023:       BA       OBP       Slug%      OPS +    K’s

Teoscar   .239      .289       .416         97         133

Max K.      .234.     .298.      .440.       101.         60

Let’s wake up on Kepler - don’t love him but he’s playing OK & better than most think. These stats are prior to today’s game. BTW Teoscar has 16 HR & Max has 14 HR. Also, TH has 133 K’s & leads the league.

TH - 389 AB’s ………..Max - 248 AB’s……..those extra 141 AB’s netted 2 more HR & 73 more K’s.

With Kepler’s D, no comparison!!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Quite possibly not.  He can be DFA'ed to open a roster spot, assuming the FO sees it that way.  In that case, they are on the hook for his remaining salary anyway.  And so, it is no cost to them to instead offer to cover his salary if there are multiple candidate teams who would sign him for major league minimum after he's a free agent.  So any possible trade value IMO will come from this approach, via a very, very minor bidding war while he can still be traded.

If I want him mildly, I sit back and wait til he’s released & his salary is covered & then I take my chances on a claim.

Otherwise, I trade for him and offer to pick up $200K of his salary as my side of the trade. Some low ball number. Same as you eluded to above.

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

If I want him mildly, I sit back and wait til he’s released & his salary is covered & then I take my chances on a claim.

Otherwise, I trade for him and offer to pick up $200K of his salary as my side of the trade. Some low ball number. Same as you eluded to above.

Yep.  If there aren't two teams with even this minimal level of interest, to play one off the other, just cut him and move on.  Time spent negotiating a trade for rather low return probably could be more productively used in other ways.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I sort of think you have the right idea. Some interesting names being floated as trade targets, and a few of them would certainly help our team down the stretch, but at what cost? I really really really don't want to give up any valuable prospects at this point for players that "might" win us a couple of extra games. Just roll with what we have and hope for the best. If we are healthy --- sure, that's a big "if" -- I think this team can actually win a playoff series. 

After seeing us play in the 2nd half (less Polanco & Lewis) it seems we’ll have enough offense to be competitive………..our weakness seems to be glaringly in our bullpen!!!!

It’s easy to expect too much from the Pen, nobody likes to lose a lead. It happens!

However.

Getting 7 strong from Pablo & then Moran giving up 3 runs w/o an out and Pagan contributing to that by yielding an HR in the same 1/2 inning is brutal. Could have/should have turned the 4 run lead over to Cole Sands and said go get 6 outs! 9th inning, Still in the game & Ortega promptly loads the bases with no outs……..our offense can’t overcome 7 runs in the last two innings.

Today, Ryan was missing his spots and battled to hold Mariners to 4 through 4 innings. Then the bullpen gives up 4 more in the next 3 innings. To me the Pen is screaming HELP - HELP!!

We need Thielbar plus 2 others from outside the organization to displace the bottom 3 we now have. I’m assuming Stewart is probably a September call up & maybe not Playoff worthy/healthy.

Thielbar - Balazovic - Jax - Duran - Winder - Pagan - 2 new guys……Brad Hand - Michael Fulmer………experience over velocity & no clues & no command!

Ortega - Lopez - Sands - Moran all need work or gotta go. Can’t walk guys as a reliever - not the first guy you see, certainly.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

So you are saying we should trade Joe Ryan?

Can’t trade Joe - he threw 4 innings today & gave up 4 runs……..his ERA is better than the Major League Ready list of Balazovic - Ortega - Pagan - Jax, after the last 3 games. Our PEN needs big time help!!

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Fatbat said:

The perfect trade would be no trades. Bring up Lee and work him into the team in mid August. Same with David Festa or any other hot hand in the minors. …. Well except that bucket of baseballs for Gallo, that would be a win/win. 

If we could transition a couple young arms into relief options I would agree we could stay put with current roster……. that said, it doesn’t seem we can transition arms from starters to relievers without all sorts of ramifications for the rest of their careers. I don’t get it! Not being able to throw more than an inning or two after being a reliever makes sense but compromising a young talent by having him pitch in relief in August- October, after having been a starter, I don’t get.

May need to go get a couple experienced relief guys……I like our roster on the field! Buxton could fake an injury & Gallo could go away and that would be cool.