Trade Deadline

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Just for fun, I fired up Out of the Park Baseball and did a live start season on July 4th. Simmed up to 7/25 so Polanco and Thielbar could return from the IL. Trade difficulty set to the most difficult level… Here’s what the game is offering for some of these players:

Sonny Gray has 2 compelling offers. The game had Oakland and St Louis offering up trades with higher potential lottery tickets, but that isn’t too realistic of an outcome. 

Houston offered 24 year old C Korey Lee, who our scout Sean Johnson evaluates as a 40/80 overall with 60/80 potential. As well as 25 year old RHP Forrest Whitley, who our scout evaluates as a 30/80 overall with 40/80 potential. 

Milwaukee offered 24 year old LHP Robert Gasser who is doing well in AAA and evaluated at 40/80 overall, 55/80 potential and 23 year old RHP Cam Robinson - who is struggling in AA but is evaluated at 40/80 overall 55/80 potential. 

To no one’s surprise, we didn’t receive any offers for Emilio Pagan… Even when the Twins retain 100% of his salary. 

Arizona has the guys I want back for Gray.

[howeda7]

They can't "sell" while in/near first place. It would be an insult to the clubhouse and the fan base. And the only significant asset they have to sell is Gray. I'll take 2 months of Gray, a play-off appearance (no matter how short) and a draft pick over whatever the "haul" is for trading him and the negative fallout with the rest of the team and the damage done with the fans.

That said, it's hard to justify adding much, because this team clearly isn't winning a World Series. Add a Fulmer type cheap reliever and a RH 3B/OF bat if you can. Then let it ride. FWIW I would not consider trading Gallo/Kepler "selling" especially if they are part of getting one of the above back.

[Mike Sixel]

42 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't see any way that they are out of it come the end of this month. I'm expecting a reliever and probably a bat to add, depending on how players perform between now and then. 

I don't see selling as an option. 

Oh I agree, they aren't selling. Then they'll just be in the same position next year, without Gray or Maeda, and two more draft picks that won't be around for four years.... And no idea if they have any OFers or not. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Oh I agree, they aren't selling. Then they'll just be in the same position next year, without Gray or Maeda, and two more draft picks that won't be around for four years.... And no idea if they have any OFers or not. 

Good thing this is the one and last time that they can either develop players, sign free agents or make trades at any point between now and forever right?

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Good thing this is the one and last time that they can either develop players, sign free agents or make trades at any point between now and forever right?

That hardly seems like a real point, does it. If you are them, what do you do next year in the OF? They have no starter signed beyond this year..... rudeness isn't an argument. 

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Oh I agree, they aren't selling. Then they'll just be in the same position next year, without Gray or Maeda, and two more draft picks that won't be around for four years.... And no idea if they have any OFers or not. 

They way I see it, they can be the best they can be this year which is not all that great or they can do what is necessary to get good and stay that way for a while.  Larnach and Wallner might fall on their faces but the chances are good they equal the current production unless Kepler stays hot.  History suggests his hot streak will be short lived but who knows.   

Letting Gray or Maeda go would obviously be a short-term sacrifice.  However, the sacrifice seems small given the return pitching generally brings at the deadline.  I don't see Gray or Maeda being the difference in a playoff run and getting there will be much more dependent upon our established players (Buxton . Correa, and Polanco) playing up to their potential instead of the abysmal display we have witnessed thus far.  I would like to see them cash in one of them.

It would be nice if they could find a RP.  Once again, we have quite a few prospects with a shot at being major league players that need to go on the 40 man.  Perhaps we can pick-up a Fulmer type or better in trade for a couple of these prospects.  Maybe a little buying and a little selling.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That hardly seems like a real point, does it. If you are them, what do you do next year in the OF? They have no starter signed beyond this year..... rudeness isn't an argument. 

I would hope they find someone that can be out there if they don't trust what they have in house.

 

Honestly the Twins have been one of the more aggressive teams both at the deadline and in the offseason across baseball. I'd prefer to worry about and add to the 2023 team in July 2023, and then with a lot of salary space this offseason figure out the 2024 team 100% at that time. That's all.

I do not want to sell at the deadline here, that's all I meant. But there is a LOT of time between now and opening day 2024 right? That's all I meant.

[PseudoSABR]

Whatever we would get in return for Gray needs to exceed the compensation coming from the QO.  

The Twins don't play a team with a winning records until the Diamondbacks in August.  I see them waiting until the last possible moment to see where this team is at in 20 or so days, before making any significant moves.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I would hope they find someone that can be out there if they don't trust what they have in house.

 

Honestly the Twins have been one of the more aggressive teams both at the deadline and in the offseason across baseball. I'd prefer to worry about and add to the 2023 team in July 2023, and then with a lot of salary space this offseason figure out the 2024 team 100% at that time. That's all.

I do not want to sell at the deadline here, that's all I meant. But there is a LOT of time between now and opening day 2024 right? That's all I meant.

Fair... But how do you have any idea what to do with the OF next year? They have zero starters signed..... And no idea if Celestino, Larnach, Wallner, Kiersey or others can play. They aren't, hopefully, bring in three new starters from outside. That would say a lot about their current prospects. 

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They way I see it, they can be the best they can be this year which is not all that great or they can do what is necessary to get good and stay that way for a while.  Larnach and Wallner might fall on their faces but the chances are good they equal the current production unless Kepler stays hot.  History suggests his hot streak will be short lived but who knows.   

Letting Gray or Maeda go would obviously be a short-term sacrifice.  However, the sacrifice seems small given the return pitching generally brings at the deadline.  I don't see Gray or Maeda being the difference in a playoff run and getting there will be much more dependent upon our established players (Buxton . Correa, and Polanco) playing up to their potential instead of the abysmal display we have witnessed thus far.  I would like to see them cash in one of them.

It would be nice if they could find a RP.  Once again, we have quite a few prospects with a shot at being major league players that need to go on the 40 man.  Perhaps we can pick-up a Fulmer type or better in trade for a couple of these prospects.  Maybe a little buying and a little selling.

We are in alignment here

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair... But how do you have any idea what to do with the OF next year? They have zero starters signed..... And no idea if Celestino, Larnach, Wallner, Kiersey or others can play. They aren't, hopefully, bring in three new starters from outside. That would say a lot about their current prospects. 

It's up to the front office to figure that out. My expectation as a fan is that they put a strong team, on paper, together. I can totally see Royce being the CF even next year, but there are options. But I do think letting it play out and letting guys earn roles, and/or figuring out what guys aren't able to do (so trading/acquiring other guys) would be on the docket come December/January.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Twins' pitching staff - especially if Stewart gets back healthy and Lopez regains his stuff - is good enough to win a pennant - IMHO. It's just that the offensive production is what you would expect from a 75 win team and that will be their undoing. The tantalizing thought of the pitching carry them deep into October is enough so that the Twins aren't sellers. But they also won't be buyers. Falvey and Levine have lost most of the trades they've made and I don't think the Pohlads give them a green light this year. Even though not necessarily a small market, teams like the Twins just can't survive dumping prospects year after year.

Regarding Gray, Polanco, Kepler, Maeda...

Polanco's stats aren't eye-popping but there always seems to be a correlation to his being out of the line-up and the team struggling. His salary next season isn't cost prohibitive and while Julien has shown flashes, he might not yet be ready to start everyday - I would be surprised if the Twins didn't pick up Polanco's option for 2024.

Kepler's in the fans' doghouse more often than not and it is time for Larnach to be an everyday player. Do the Twins feel the same about Wallner? Wouldn't be shocked if Kepler's also back in 2024.

If Maeda pitches well the rest of the way, wouldn't mind him back on a one-year deal. Next year's rotation has a big unknown (Paddack) and we've seen that you can't have too much pitching depth. Ryan-Pablo-Ober-Paddack-Maeda with Varland waiting in the wings would be my preference but I can understand if the Twins want to move on from Kenta.

Even if the Twins want Gray back, he's gone, IYAM. Don't think he loves playing for Rocco.

[Mike Sixel]

To my point about the OF, the Twins are 21st in teh league for OF offense, but are so far from the top 10, or even 15, that they are playing a different (bad) game compared to the best teams. 

They are only 13th on D, btw....and 18th in fWAR. 

They can't afford to sit still, not this year or next....and they shouldn't be dealing prospects for one year rentals (there are none that are better than the Twins' players on the bad teams, as far as I can tell). 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Arizona has the guys I want back for Gray.

Who do you target as the primary piece coming back?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Who do you target as the primary piece coming back?

Jordan Lawler plus some random guy with big upside, but far down the system. I then move Lawler to CF, unless you think Lewis is going there. I'm willing to change the second guy to a RP prospect if the Twins really believe in one. 

[Mike Sixel]

Another option is any of the Padres top 4 prospects, plus another random guy. The Pads are still in win now mode.....

[terrydactyls]

My two cents.

Unless a player has a no-trade clause in his contract, everyone should be available for trade - if the price is right.  Buyers with a real chance at winning the World Series have been known to make trades that appear to be one-sided.  

[SwainZag]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jordan Lawler plus some random guy with big upside, but far down the system. I then move Lawler to CF, unless you think Lewis is going there. I'm willing to change the second guy to a RP prospect if the Twins really believe in one. 

I think Lawler would be a pipedream. Maybe if Gray was under team control next year as well and pitching like this.   But soon to be 34 and a pending FA?  I don't think there's anyway you are getting a Top 10, fringe top 5 prospect straight up.... besides also getting someone with high upside for 2 months of Sonny Gray.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, SwainZag said:

I think Lawler would be a pipedream. Maybe if Gray was under team control next year as well and pitching like this.   But soon to be 34 and a pending FA?  I don't think there's anyway you are getting a Top 10, fringe top 5 prospect straight up.... besides also getting someone with high upside for 2 months of Sonny Gray.

I admit that when I looked at highly rated he was, that it was a pipedream. Would maybe have to add Pagan.... :)

[TNtwins85]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The really bad teams have so little I'd want..... At least that would be available. 

Exactly, and most of them are in the AL central. If the Twins are still in the hunt at the deadline let’s hope a few more teams have dropped off. If not it’ll be slim pickings. Might be a fairly quiet deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I think Lawler would be a pipedream. Maybe if Gray was under team control next year as well and pitching like this.   But soon to be 34 and a pending FA?  I don't think there's anyway you are getting a Top 10, fringe top 5 prospect straight up.... besides also getting someone with high upside for 2 months of Sonny Gray.

In fairness, I thought he was more around 50th or so....and that AZ wants to WIN THIS YEAR. He's currently 21st on FG.....

And, if they can't get a guy that would be in their top 5, they shouldn't deal him as they will offer a QO. 

[Whitey333]

As good as Gray is I know it would be tough to trade him.  But I believe his contract is up at end of this season.  He will be a free agent and may want to leave.  I don't think he likes it here.  He and Baldelli seem to be at odds.  Trade him while you can get something for him.  Maeda and Mahli are also free agents at end of season.   Mahli with Tommy John is probably not be back anyway.  Maeda at age 35 coming off Tommy John should probably be dealt as well.  Twins should strongly consider trading veterans that are unlikely to return next year anyway.

[Mike Sixel]

If you want them to be buyers, who are you replacing? And with whom? Good luck finding a hitter on these sellers....

If you are testing for a 3b, what are you giving up when Lewis is coming back in six weeks or so? And for whom that is better than Castro or Farmer?

[TwinsDr2021]

23 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Julien has shown flashes, he might not yet be ready to start everyday - I would be surprised if the Twins didn't pick up Polanco's option for 2024.

Kepler's in the fans' doghouse more often than not and it is time for Larnach to be an everyday player. Do the Twins feel the same about Wallner? Wouldn't be shocked if Kepler's also back in 2024.

If Maeda pitches well the rest of the way, wouldn't mind him back on a one-year deal. Next year's rotation has a big unknown (Paddack) and we've seen that you can't have too much pitching depth. Ryan-Pablo-Ober-Paddack-Maeda with Varland waiting in the wings would be my preference but I can understand if the Twins want to move on from Kenta.

Even if the Twins want Gray back, he's gone, IYAM. Don't think he loves playing for Rocco.

Julien is 24 and will be 25 April 30th next year, if he isn't ready to start, he probably never will be, Same with Wallner, Larnach, Miranda all these guys need a role, starting, utility, bench, or AAA whatever it is, but the unknown with guys this age makes if difficult to impossible to come up with a solid roster, and in the mean time the next group of prospects are getting old in AA. What is the old saying sit or get off the pot?

Whomever the Twins FO feel they can't stick in the lineup and giving them the rest of the season to figure it out, should be considered trade bait (which seems like Wallner or Maybe Larnach)

[TwinsDr2021]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jordan Lawler plus some random guy with big upside, but far down the system. I then move Lawler to CF, unless you think Lewis is going there. I'm willing to change the second guy to a RP prospect if the Twins really believe in one. 

Based on the trade simulator, it would take Lewis/Julien/Varland wouldn't get the Twins Lawler. Sadly

[Jeff K]

On 7/3/2023 at 6:20 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What are you doing with Vazquez? No one is trading for him, and you aren't DFAing him after three months.

I'd deal Castro because he's never been this good and might have value. Gordon doesn't. It's not an infatuation....trust me. I wanted Trea Turner....

Miranda is up for at least 6 weeks, unless he falls on his face. Lewis is likely out that long. 

I like your comments except I would have a much shorter leash for Miranda.  Mediocre hitting and poor fielding is not a tasty major league recipe.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Jeff K said:

I like your comments except I would have a much shorter leash for Miranda.  Mediocre hitting and poor fielding is not a tasty major league recipe.

I have no idea what to do with him. Lewis getting hurt is a huge blow. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I don't see the FO doing a lot a the deadline this year because there isn't a lot to trade except pitching and I don't think they like to trade pitching.  Who could/should we trade that would bring a return? Sonny Gray, maybe one of Kepler/Gallo, and one of Larnach/Wallner? Not much else out there that would get us much back. Polanco is hurt, Miranda can't hit, Maeda is 35 and just back from TJ. hard to see getting much back from trading any of them. 

To me, the wild card is Gray. I suspect they have approached or will approach him about a 2-3 year extension so they know if that's possible and at what price. They could make him a qualifying offer and get a first or second round pick if he signs elsewhere. He will want to test free agency because at 33, this is his last chance for a high value (18-22m/year) multi year deal. 

I would trade Gray only if part of the return is an established RH hitting MLB OF, an established late inning RP (each with at least 1.5 years of control left), or a younger OF already at the MLB level with high upside. I would be willing to throw in Larnach or Wallner for the right deal, either with Gray or with Gallo to move him of of the roster. I would look at the Angels who need players after all of the injuries, and also St. Louis. The problem with the Angels is they haven't got anything we want unless they're willing to trade Micky Moniak or give us Hunter Renfroe cheap. I also looked at the Giants, Diamondbacks and Astros - not a lot there either. Here's two Gray trades vetted through MLB trade values:

Twins get Dylan Carlson, Cardinals get Gray and either Miranda alone or Gallo plus a mid level prospect

Twins get Jake McCarthy and Drey Jameson, Diamondbacks get Sonny Gray and Miranda

The first one is interesting, the second one a little less so. Bottom line, I keep Gray and give him a QO, trade Gallo for whatever level prospect you can get or a reliever like Gallegos or Hicks from St. louis , call up Wallner to play LF, and roll with what you got.   

 

 

[SwainZag]

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't see the FO doing a lot a the deadline this year because there isn't a lot to trade except pitching and I don't think they like to trade pitching.  Who could/should we trade that would bring a return? Sonny Gray, maybe one of Kepler/Gallo, and one of Larnach/Wallner? Not much else out there that would get us much back. Polanco is hurt, Miranda can't hit, Maeda is 35 and just back from TJ. hard to see getting much back from trading any of them. 

To me, the wild card is Gray. I suspect they have approached or will approach him about a 2-3 year extension so they know if that's possible and at what price. They could make him a qualifying offer and get a first or second round pick if he signs elsewhere. He will want to test free agency because at 33, this is his last chance for a high value (18-22m/year) multi year deal. 

I would trade Gray only if part of the return is an established RH hitting MLB OF, an established late inning RP (each with at least 1.5 years of control left), or a younger OF already at the MLB level with high upside. I would be willing to throw in Larnach or Wallner for the right deal, either with Gray or with Gallo to move him of of the roster. I would look at the Angels who need players after all of the injuries, and also St. Louis. The problem with the Angels is they haven't got anything we want unless they're willing to trade Micky Moniak or give us Hunter Renfroe cheap. I also looked at the Giants, Diamondbacks and Astros - not a lot there either. Here's two Gray trades vetted through MLB trade values:

Twins get Dylan Carlson, Cardinals get Gray and either Miranda alone or Gallo plus a mid level prospect

Twins get Jake McCarthy and Drey Jameson, Diamondbacks get Sonny Gray and Miranda

The first one is interesting, the second one a little less so. Bottom line, I keep Gray and give him a QO, trade Gallo for whatever level prospect you can get or a reliever like Gallegos or Hicks from St. louis , call up Wallner to play LF, and roll with what you got.   

 

 

Curious why you think the Cardinals would want any part in Gallo or Gray?  They have to be a lot closer to blowing it up and trading Goldy & co than adding expiring assets.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, SwainZag said:

Curious why you think the Cardinals would want any part in Gallo or Gray?  They have to be a lot closer to blowing it up and trading Goldy & co than adding expiring assets.

Truth. No way the Cardinals do that.