Trade Deadline

[LA Vikes Fan]

You're probably right and that's one of the reasons that my conclusion was to not trade Gray because I just don't see the return out there for him unless we're willing to take prospects who are at least a year or two away from the bigs. The Twins aren't in the right spot to trade pitching for prospects. I'd rather give Gray a QO and get a first round pick next year.  I don't like the idea of trading our better prospects for someone like Goldschmidt (even if we could) because this team isn't one guy away from WS contention. Besides, acquiring Goldschmidt requires Kirilloff to move to the OF. I'd rather he stay and develop as the long term 1B. 

Bottom line for me - if there's someone wiling to give up a middle reliver or even a good A or decent AA prospect for Gallo, let's do it and bring up Wallner or Larnach to replace him. If we can trade a blocked prospect like Miranda for a blocked RH hitting OF prospect from someone else, let's do that.  Otherwise, let's roll with what we have.  

[saviking]

Kind of depends on where we stand in the race come the deadline. I'm assuming we will be in the thick of it so I can't see wholesale changes or Gray getting traded.

But MY preference would to do whatever they can to make room for Larnach and Wallner and keep Julien on the team. I also think Castro has better long term potential than Gordon. 

I'd put Kepler, Gallo, Gordon and Polanco on the block and use them to stock the minor leagues and beef up the bullpen. I wouldn't mess with the starters. After September 2st I'd add Williams. 

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins trade Gray, and I'd guess they won't, my money is on them actually bringing in another starting pitcher, even if that's counter intuitive. Another controllable arm to pair with Ryan, Ober and Lopez would help ensure the rotation is stabilized, and seeing as how a stable rotation has saved the team from imploding this year, I could see them doubling down on that approach.

If AZ is the target, maybe Brandon Pfaadt? He didn't have much of an audition, but surely his early struggle has lowered his previously top 50 prospect value.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins trade Gray, and I'd guess they won't, my money is on them actually bringing in another starting pitcher, even if that's counter intuitive. Another controllable arm to pair with Ryan, Ober and Lopez would help ensure the rotation is stabilized, and seeing as how a stable rotation has saved the team from imploding this year, I could see them doubling down on that approach.

If AZ is the target, maybe Brandon Pfaadt? He didn't have much of an audition, but surely his early struggle has lowered his previously top 50 prospect value.

That thought did occur to me......

I just don't think they trade Gray or Maeda, which I'm OK with, just not what I'd likely do given the lineup.

Gooooood. Imagine if they'd drafted Carrol and signed Swanson instead of a non-prospect and CC....

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, I'd guess they don't trade pitching. Gray only if they get a deal that would floor us all. Maeda only if he somehow losses his job to one of the prospects in the next month, which is looking more unlikely by the day. Missing the playoffs will put their jobs on the line and the rotation is what's saving them all at the moment. Even if they should be, I doubt many of them are looking too far into the future at the expense of winning a terrible AL Central.

 

[specialiststeve]

Gallo... gotta go..

Max ... Gotta go... 

Sonny... If a top prospect is offered up ... gotta do.. 

Kenta ... if "decent" prospect if offered up ... gotta do..

Those are the main Gotta go... Gotta do Guys... 

[mickster]

On 7/3/2023 at 5:20 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What are you doing with Vazquez? No one is trading for him, and you aren't DFAing him after three months.

I'd deal Castro because he's never been this good and might have value. Gordon doesn't. It's not an infatuation....trust me. I wanted Trea Turner....

Miranda is up for at least 6 weeks, unless he falls on his face. Lewis is likely out that long. 

He won't be up if we land Candeleria from the Nats

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, mickster said:

He won't be up if we land Candeleria from the Nats

A reasonable target, what do you think he'd cost.

[weitz41]

1st off I believe the Twins are going to win the awful AL central...So, my thoughts are skewed that way. 

A lot of interesting thoughts and ideas since the last time I read though this thread.

A few mentions of Gray, Miranda, Castro and Gordon. Of course, a Pagan, Gallo and Kepler.

my 2 cents (which have little to no value)

We need a steady reliever and a RH outfielder.

I've given up on Pagan going anywhere...

I'm keeping Gray. In whatever order you prefer. Ryan, Lopez and Gray in a 5 game PLAYOFF series is 10x better than most is not every playoff series most have seen for the Twins. The QO will probably be a 1st round comp pick if he continues to pitch like an all-star and we don't make the playoffs. A comp A pick is a big deal. Top 40-45 in next year's draft. It'll take a really good prospect or two to justify moving him. 

Meada. If he continues, he could get us in a trade 1 maybe two of the players this team is lacking. If he reverts back to the mediocre pitcher before the IL stint. Maybe a reliable BP arm and a lottery ticket or two. He's not a QO option.

Gallo and Kepler. I'm open to trading either one but not both. If I have to choose one, I'm going with Gallo. Not because he's the better of the two but because of Kepler's option for next season. 2 WAR and his option is a bargain in 2024 and I want Larnach or Walner to have a long runway in the second half.

Castro, Gordon and Farmer as the bench in 2024? The Twins paid Marco Gonzalez 11 mil in 2020 to hold down one of those spots. Keep, keep and keep.

Miranda. I'm struggling here...Is he the 2022 player or is 2023 the guy he is?? This is the one young player I would consider trading. The Twins has an excess of left side of the infield prospects. If he ends up being a quality MLB player bad idea to trade him. A bench player/bat good idea.

I'd move Meada, Gallo and possibly Miranda if it fits for 2023 and beyond.

[TwinsDr2021]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

A reasonable target, what do you think he'd cost.

He is a UFA next year, so you wouldn't think it would be much, but the trade simulator is showing even up for Varland or Festa or Miranda.

Polanco or Wallner as underpays, and combo of Martin and SWR isn't enough either.

All that seems like a high price for a UFA.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

'd put Kepler, Gallo, Gordon and Polanco on the block and use them to stock the minor leagues and beef up the bullpen. I wouldn't mess with the starters.

Hate to be that guy, but those 4 combined are not stocking the minors or beefing up the pen. Well maybe Polanco could do that.

Based on the trade simulator.

Gallo - 2.7, Gordon - 2, Kepler 1.5, Polanco 7.3

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/3/2023 at 5:43 PM, Squirrel said:

Instead of mocking posters for answering a question, why don’t you answer it yourself.

OK - trading your starting CF when you are in first place and have the 3rd weakest schedule left in MLB doesn’t seem to make sense.

#4-5 in MLB pitching stats……..Why punt?

There is zero market for Gallo. Veteran presence (flexible & sound Defense) with the power threat v. an up & comer…….FO gotta make a decision. Don’t often release guys on teams in the playoff mix.

Kepler, as much as I hate to admit it, plays an excellent RF (shown often in past couple weeks) and his numbers are not anywhere near DFA numbers. A couple weeks ago - maybe a week ago I wanted to DFA him but his OPS is league average - he looks like he’s going to hit 22-24 HR in 130 games - batting average working from .208 up toward .235 or better - very good defense…….these all stack up to a starting RF…..I don’t like it much but it’s real!

If we’re competitive and have a decent staff we need to buy. Can’t jettison the roster vets just to see what may happen!

Solano - Farmer - Castro have been glue guys most of the year.

Buy: An OF piece maybe - Relief help

I like moving whoever we need to get Friedel from Cincinnati. They have multiple pieces with Encarnacion-Strand & others in the wings at AAA.  Left handed hitting - fast - everyday CF v. RH pitching - high energy. Can’t imagine they will entertain moving him but they need pitching now & in future. Better OF & hitter than Castro with similar speed on bases.

I offer Winder & Varland so the Reds get controllable pieces and more than one option to hit on with two arms……,.,Maybe SWR & Winder & Maeda? ……….I know Varland is young & has an upside but so does Friedel! Gotta give value to get value. Friedel would be a reach but an ideal piece.

Better base runner - better OF - better hitter than Nick Gordon.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'll throw out a name that would work well here.

Lamonte Wade Jr, I know he is a former Twin, but man is he having a career year with the Giants. I'm curious what he would cost in terms of a trade.

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/3/2023 at 5:50 PM, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't winning the WS with THIS OF....and all of them are gone after this year. They 100% need to figure out if any of the guys in AA or AAA are realistic options (or at least gather more data on them). And, I'm answering so others can see where I'm coming from, not arguing with you at all. 

We need players that can play. Taylor & Kepler & Castro can play.

Gallo is a personal preference type of choice - I see just a sliver of value.

Looking at youth & hoping they’ll be able to play is chasing one’s tail. There’s always young guys with promise…..last year it was Larnach - etc.

If Celestino didn’t prove with his chance in ‘22 that he cannot play I don’t know what else he needs to do?

[RpR]

15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

We need players that can play. Taylor & Kepler & Castro can play....

...Looking at youth & hoping they’ll be able to play is chasing one’s tail. There’s always young guys with promise…..last year it was Larnach - etc.

BRAVO, BRAVO -- some here seem to want to dump known production for pie in the sky unknown, without regard that it will probably take the Twins from a team that will win  80 some games, to a team struggling to win 70 some games, for years.

Julien could be the next Cruz DH , but Julien , Miranda and Wallners fielding is abysmal.

 

[PseudoSABR]

I'd do this. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

I'd do this. 

Zero chance I do that. Edit....ok, very tiny chance. Whose your 2b when polanco gets hurt after three games back?

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

I'd do this. 

Dang, that's intriguing. 1.5 years of Goldy for Julien would be something I'd be awfully tempted by. And I don't believe he's ever been given a QO so it's possible if he maintains his production they could have him for another year, or get a pick back for him. I don't think Julien will ever field well so he's a bat only player for me. And I'm pretty open to trading some of those guys. It'd depend on what their internal thoughts are on Polanco ever being healthy again, Lewis' future position, and how close they think Lee is. Really intriguing trade.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

To understand what should happen at the deadline, we need to understand where the team is at. Here are a couple of takeaways from the first part of the Twins' first half:

Negatives:

1. The team struggles to hit lefty pitching

2. Second basemen not named Jorge Polanco have issues fielding their position

3. High-leverage relief corps is running pretty thin. Especially on the left-handed side.

4. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa struggle with RISP

Positives:

1. Starting pitching and top three bullpen arms (Jax, Duran, and Stewart)

2. Rocco leaving the starters in longer allows the bullpen to rest

3. Willi Castro, Michael A Taylor, and Donovan Solano are effective glue guys

4. The outfield has many excellent defenders, and the outfield defense has been generally great

 

Based on those takeaways, we can make a couple of conclusions. Chiefly, none of the negatives besides #4 can be remedied in-house. Also, based on the fact that the Twins' depth is excellent, a "quiet" deadline where the FO picks up a couple of rental relievers and a bench bat seems unlikely. It is also the case that if the Twins fail to win the division, this FO is likely gone. Thus, the stars are seemingly aligned for another "loud" deadline for the Twins.

 

Here are some of the trade options from each likely seller and their value (per BTV):

Tigers:

Cisnero (1M), Lorenzen (2M), and Rodriguez (8.4M) 

White Sox:

Anderson (1.3M), Giolito (14.8M), Grandal (-3.9M), Graveman (-1.9M), Kelly (1.5M), Lopez (0.8M), and Middleton (1.3M)

Royals:

Barlow (9.4M) and Greinke (0.5M)

Athletics:

Blackburn (6.4M) and Laureano (4.8M)

Mets:

Pham (0.8M) and Robertson (3M)

Nationals:

Candelario (10.6M), Harvey (8.6), and Finnegan (4.6)

Cubs:

Alzolay (20.7M), Bellinger (1.1M), Fulmer (2.5M), and Stroman (9.4M)

Pirates:

Bednar (40.8M) and McCutchen (5M)

Cardinals:

Flaherty (3.3M), Goldschmidt (21.1M), Hicks (2.6M), and Montgomery (14M)

Padres:

Hader (8.3M), Garcia (1.6M), and Snell (7.4M)

Rockies:

Hand (3.2M), Profar (-3.9M), and Suter (1.7M)

 

There is a fairly abundant relief market, and it is not overly expensive. However, there are not many second-base options (infield is quite thin on the whole), and the Twins are likely better off sticking with Julien/Farmer/Solano until Polanco returns. There are a few of trades that I would make as GM:

 

Bullpen help from the Rockies: Brent Suter for Byron Chourio (UR)

After moving to Coors Field, Suter is posting a career-low HR/9 over 41.2 IP this season (0.4 HR/9). Over his career, he's used his 4-seam fastball over 60% of the time, but this season, he's using an even mix of his sinker/4-seam/changeup (33%-27% for each pitch) and is sporting a new slider which drops 3.7 inches more than the average slider at his arm slot. His 4-seamer has excellent rise, and his effective changeup (.159 xwOBA against) gives him reverse splits (1.01 WHIP vs righties and 1.62 WHIP vs lefties). Overall, Suter is a better, more experienced version of Jovani Moran, and should be an effective 7th/8th inning arm for the Twins down the stretch. Byron Chourio was a footnote from the Pablo Lopez/Luis Arraez deal and is well away from making an impact in the majors while being off MLB's Twins' top 30 prospects.

 

A reigning MVP who mashes lefties: Paul Goldschmidt for Danny De Andrade (#13), Yasser Mercedes (#12), Marco Raya (#4), and Josh Winder

St. Louis may be reluctant to deal the reigning National League MVP, but they do not have the pitching to compete in the next two seasons. However, a young, controllable arm like Winder and an exciting prospect like Raya could tempt the Cardinals to relinquish their star first baseman. Despite his production numbers being slightly down this year (.981 OPS in '22 to .851 OPS in '23), his peripheral numbers are actually up (.367 xwOBA in '22 to .388 xwOBA in '23). His hard-hit rate is up 8.4% and his average exit velo is up 2.6mph. He's only posing a .702 OPS against lefties this year (versus a 1.328 OPS in 22), but the peripherals show he's just running into bad luck. At the end of the day, this is the kind of move that will help take the offense to the next level while not completely emptying the farm. He brings gold-glove caliber defense at first and will move Kirilloff to the outfield so that we can see less of Gallo (More on him, later).

 

A bullpen arm from a division rival: Kendall Graveman and $5M for Tanner Schobel (#14)

The White Sox's setup man is currently sporting a 2.92 ERA and a 1.108 WHIP. His FIP is at an unsightly 4.83, but his hard-hit percentage and xwOBA allowed are nearly identical to his marks posted last season. One big change from previous years is his launch angle against. For most of his career, the average launch angle allowed was between six and seven degrees. However, he's allowing an average launch angle of 18 degrees, by far the highest mark of his career; the only noticeable pitch usage difference is that he's flipped his 4-seam and changeup usage (18% 4-seam to 8% changeup). His 2-seamer is moving more than it was in previous years. It seems as though Graveman's increased average launch angle allowed is due to the increase in his pop-up rate, from 4.2% in '22 to 11.7% in '23. Graveman gets a lot of soft contact and should combine with Stewart/Jax/Suter to be a great bridge to Duran. The White Sox agree to pay the rest of Graveman's salary this year as well as a quarter of his '24 salary to acquire a top-15 prospect.

 

Gallo gets dealt for the third straight deadline: Spencer Arrighetti (#9) for Joey Gallo

The Astros are missing a left-handed power bat, and have not gotten good production from Jose Abreu at first. Gallo would slide into the backend of their lineup and help them create separation in closer games. Houston's farm system is pretty bad, so Arrighetti would likely be in the 15-20 range of prospects for the Twins. He's got a good fastball and breaking balls (sweeper and curveball), with the sweeper being a great out pitch that misses many bats. The Twins have plenty of outfielders (Taylor, Castro, Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, and Contreras) and can parlay this depth to recoup some of the pitching depth they've lost in the Goldschmidt trade (Arrighetti is currently at AAA).

 

This deadline costs the Twins four of their top-15 prospects, a AAAA starter, their fourth OF, and an unranked lottery ticket. The Twins have acquired a top-20 pitching prospect, a rental lefty reliever, an elite setup man, and a reigning MVP. Here's how the Twins will look after the trades (and when fully healthy):

Lineup:

1: SS Carlos Correa   2: 1B Paul Goldschmidt   3: 2B Jorge Polanco   4: LF Alex Kirilloff   5: DH Byron Buxton   6: 3B Royce Lewis   7: RF Max Kepler   8: C Ryan Jeffers   9: CF Michael A Taylor

Bench: 

2C: Christian Vazquez   INF: Kyle Farmer   INF: Donovan Solano   4OF: Willi Castro

Starting Staff:

1P: Pablo Lopez   2P: Sonny Gray   3P: Joe Ryan   4P: Kenta Maeda   5P: Bailey Ober

Bullpen:

MR: Emilio Pagan   MR: Jorge Lopez   MR: Jovani Moran   SU: Brent Suter   SU: Kendal Graveman   SU: Brock Stewart   SU: Griffin Jax   CL: Jhoan Duan

 

Overall, I think this is going to be similar to the way the deadline will shakeout. They will use their depth (especially in the outfield) to keep the farm system around the middle of the pack and go after a top bat to help ignite the offense. The Twins acquire a couple of bullpen arms to keep the options plentiful for Rocco and Pete down the stretch (hopefully Jorge Lopez can rejoin the leverage corps) and they try to look for guys with an extra year of control. I don't anticipate that they'll go after starting pitching, unless they acquire a fix-it arm like Steven Matz or Jack Flaherty in a Goldschmidt deal (or multiple members of the rotation get injured). This Twins team has the potential to be a terrific postseason team on the back of their incredible starters, and adding a player like Goldschmidt could give the Twins lineup the experience and production they lack. 

[nicksaviking]

45 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

I'd do this. 

My guess is that the Cardinals are so out of practice being 'sellers' that they won't entertain offers for any of their biggest names.

[PseudoSABR]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero chance I do that. Edit....ok, very tiny chance. Whose your 2b when polanco gets hurt after three games back?

Some combination of Farmer, Solano, Castro, and Lewis when he comes back.  I'd like to see Brooks Lee promoted to AAA, so he'd be a possibility for the stretch run.  Although I love Julien as a hitter, he leaves a lot to be desired in the field.  Not trading Julien to guard against a Polanco injury seems silly to me, that's why you roster a guy like Farmer.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Some combination of Farmer, Solano, Castro, and Lewis when he comes back.  I'd like to see Brooks Lee promoted to AAA, so he'd be a possibility for the stretch one.  Although I love Julien as a hitter, he leaves a lot to be desired in the field.  Not trading Julien to guard against a Polanco injury seems silly to me, that's why you roster a guy like Farmer.

I think Julien is better right now..... So it's not that. I think people are underestimating just how good a hitter he already is, in just this little time. 

[Mike Sixel]

Also, Severino and Lee should be promoted....

[PseudoSABR]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think Julien is better right now..... So it's not that. I think people are underestimating just how good a hitter he already is, in just this little time. 

Where does he play if Polanco remains healthy? AAA is my bet.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Where does he play if Polanco remains healthy? AAA is my bet.

Sure, just like Gallo and Kepler keep playing. No idea what they are doing next year, given they have zero faith in any minor league players, and zero OF signed for next year. 

[PseudoSABR]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, just like Gallo and Kepler keep playing. No idea what they are doing next year, given they have zero faith in any minor league players, and zero OF signed for next year. 

I mean there's Kirilloff, Lanarch and Wallner.  Castro also.  Buxton I suppose doesn't count.  Has Julien ever played the outfield actually? 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, PseudoSABR said:

I mean there's Kirilloff, Lanarch and Wallner.  Castro also.  Buxton I suppose doesn't count.  Has Julien ever played the outfield actually? 

They clearly don't believe in Larnach or Wallner. Castro isn't a starter. AK? I guess he could go back out there, but it's not like he's hitting.

No, Julien is not an OF. He's barely a 2b right now.

[PseudoSABR]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

They clearly don't believe in Larnach or Wallner. Castro isn't a starter. AK? I guess he could go back out there, but it's not like he's hitting.

No, Julien is not an OF. He's barely a 2b right now.

This is a pretty negative nancy post.  There's nothing to suggest they don't believe in Lanarch and Wallner, beyond not DFAing expensive veterans in Gallo and Kepler and killing their depth.  Castro has been starting and producing in a variety of ways beyond just his, albeit, mediocre bat.  AK has cooled off, but he's still one of the only guys hitting above .250, his bat certainly profiles better in the OF than 1B.  There's also the dreaded Kepler option...

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

This is a pretty negative nancy post.  There's nothing to suggest they don't believe in Lanarch and Wallner, beyond not DFAing expensive veterans in Gallo and Kepler and killing their depth.  Castro has been starting and producing in a variety of ways beyond just his, albeit, mediocre bat.  AK has cooled off, but he's still one of the only guys hitting above .250, his bat certainly profiles better in the OF than 1B.  There's also the dreaded Kepler option...

Bad depth isn't really depth. And yes, I'm negative on the FO right now for sure. Great pitching, and they refuse to take a chance on better hitting. Wasted opportunity for me. What evidence is there that they believe in them? 

[PseudoSABR]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Bad depth isn't really depth. And yes, I'm negative on the FO right now for sure. Great pitching, and they refuse to take a chance on better hitting. Wasted opportunity for me. What evidence is there that they believe in them? 

No, there's depth like Wallner and Lanarch, and there's actually much worse depth beyond that.  Is good pitching not evidence? I mean we have the best rotation arguably in baseball and that's with losing a prized acquisition to TJ.  Yes, the hitting has been atrocious, and I honestly want to see coaches fired, but the plan going into the seeing wasn't terrible, it just hasn't worked, and all the depth they valued in the offseason has allowed them to tread water.  It's why I'm advocating to get a bat like Goldschmidt.