Checking In on the Twins’ Offseason Acquisitions

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins had a fairly active offseason, by their standards. Now that we’ve reached the midway point, let’s check how their additions are faring.

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins traded for three MLB players, signed four MLB deals, and brought on an additional three players on minor league deals that have contributed to this year’s team. When evaluating this team, it’s worth taking stock of how the offseason moves are looking. I’ve listed the ten acquisitions below, from most expensive (total salary committed) to least expensive. Relevant statistics include plate appearances or innings pitched, OPS+ or ERA+ (less than 100 is worse than league average; above is better), and wins above replacement as calculated for both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

Carlos Correa – Signed for $200M over six years
303 PA, 90 OPS+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR
The $200 million man has yet to impress. He’s on pace to have the worst offensive year of his career. His defense at shortstop has been good, but it hasn’t been Gold Glove-worthy, so getting too excited about what the rest of this contract holds is hard. There’s still a lot of time to turn it around, but the first eight percent has not been promising.

Christian Vazquez – Signed for $30M over three years
180 PA, 68 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR
Speaking of multi-year deals that could be more promising, Vazquez has not impressed as the primary catcher. He’s also in the midst of his worst offensive year since 2018. However, the pitchers seem to like him, and his defense is still above average. Still, it’s getting more difficult by the day to justify his black hold in this putrid lineup starting over a superior hitter in Ryan Jeffers.

Joey Gallo – Signed for $11M over one year
207 PA, 113 OPS+, 0.4 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR
Gallo got a torrid start but has regressed heavily in the last two months. It’s difficult to be too upset over a one-year flyer signing, and Gallo has filled in at multiple positions when needed. Still, the signing has also restricted Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner’s path to big league playing time. Maybe Gallo will get hot again soon and make the signing worth it, but it’s not looking good right now.

Kyle Farmer – Traded for Casey Legumina, making $5.59M, final year of arbitration in 2024
167 PA, 87 OPS+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR
Farmer has performed as expected. He’s competently played all four infield positions and stood in left field several times. The salary and prospect traded for him make this acquisition an even value. Of note, he’s been a plus hitter against lefties, as was expected.

Pablo Lopez – Traded for Luis Arraez, making $5.45M, extended for $74M over four years
96 IP, 96 ERA+, 0.8 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR
The Twins traded from a perceived position of strength—left-handed corner bats—for pitching, and it’s difficult to separate how Lopez is performing from Arraez’s chase for .400 in Miami. To his credit, Lopez has been a solid-to-great pitcher, depending on your belief in his underlying metrics. The acquisition hasn’t been a win, but Lopez is certainly doing his part.

Michael A. Taylor – Traded for Evan Sisk, Steven Cruz. Making $4.5M
221 PA, 83 OPS+, 0.6 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR
Taylor has been thrust into an everyday job, and unless someone else comes along—Byron Buxton included—he’ll be the first option in center field each day. He’s hit around his career average, which isn’t good, and his defense has been slipping a bit, which is unsurprising for the 32-year-old. If the expectation was that he was merely a backup, the trade looks much better than if he was expected to start 120 games in center field.

Donovan Solano – Signed for $2M over one year
220 PA, 115 ERA+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR
Where would this team be without Donnie Barrels? Solano was signed during spring training as an additional platoon bat against lefties as a first baseman or DH. He’s been one of the team’s most consistent hitters thus far and has held his own against both righties and lefties, playing second and third base when needed. It’s a great use of $2M as a bench player, which is what he should currently be—but isn’t.

Willi Castro – Signed for $1.8M (MiLB deal)
191 PA, 92 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR
Where would this team be without Willi Rafael Castro? Signed to a minor league deal, Castro broke camp with the team as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency with the ability to play every position. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter but is 12-for-12 stealing bases, almost carried the team offensively for a few weeks, and provides excellent roster utility. He’s a great asset as a 13th man but, like Solano, is playing more than he should.

Brock Stewart – Signed MiLB deal
25.2 IP, 610 ERA+, 1.5 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR
Where would this team be without Beef Stew? The minor league signee has been the best reliever on the team statistically, and he’s been number two in the bullpen hierarchy behind Jhoan Duran. His emergence has been terrific and has rewarded the team for taking an albeit low-risk chance on him.

Oliver Ortega – Claimed off waivers, MiLB deal
4 IP, 102 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR
Where would this—never mind. I included Ortega because he is the only other player who has played for the Twins this year added in the offseason. He was claimed off waivers and now has a chance to get work in an injury-riddled bullpen. Will he stick as a low-mid leverage arm? Who knows.

EDIT: Jose De Leon – MiLB deal
17.1 IP, 93 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR
De Leon, like Stewart and Ortega, signed a minor league deal in the offseason, but he had emerged as a potential competent middle or long relief option. He fit the team as the seventh or eighth guy out of the pen with some flexibility in use, but he will be undergoing Tommy John Surgery and will miss the remainder of 2023. He was an adequate find that will need to be replaced, likely by high minors pitching prospects.

In review, there’s a bit of a pattern here—if you can call ten players’ results a pattern. The three most expensive free agent veterans (Correa, Vazquez, Gallo) have not carried their weight thus far. The three lowest-paid free agents (Solano, Castro, Stewart) have been outperforming expectations and have emerged as vital parts of this team—which may be damning with faint praise. The three players traded for (Farmer, Lopez, Taylor) have performed about as expected, though, in Lopez’s case, the cost of Luis Arraez clouds that, and Taylor has been playing more than expected.

Do you disagree with any of these assessments? How do you feel about the job that the front office did?

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[Clear Lake Twinsfan]

Appreciate your analysis. I think that you could have also included Jose DeLeon in your list, who also signed an milb deal and prior to his unfortunate injury, appeared to have claimed a low to mid-leverage role in the Twins bullpen.

[tony&rodney]

In the moment all of the roster moves, except Gallo, made sense in an effort to improve the team through depth. Hindsight would open a whole set of other moves that could of/ would of/ should of ....

The additions still look reasonable, although it remains surprising that the Twins splashed for Correa. 

Plenty of baseball is yet to be played this season and further moves of players may happen in the next month. It is difficult to remember a time when the Twins has such good pitching but the bats will hopefully bloom in these last three months.

[Brandon]

Gallo has his OPS back over .800 he has been on a little tear lately.  He has been worth the signing but not the value signing we want.  Gallo has been much better than the Correa signing.  Though I’m not going to complain too much yet about the Correa signing.  If Correa can get his batting average over .250-.260 this season he will be ok.  His power numbers are consistent with past seasons.  The Platinum Glove season Correa had seems to be an outlier season.  He is good on defense and being above average for most of his six seasons is fine by me at SS.  
 

You are spot on about Vazquez.  I hope he starts hitting soon.  He doesn’t need to hit a ton but a .270 average with some doubles and occasional HR would help on offense.  
 

really the only negative from the 3 free agents above is their batting averages are all so far below what they should be and with others with a lower then expected batting average our offense is suffering because of this.  

[JD-TWINS]

37 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Gallo has his OPS back over .800 he has been on a little tear lately.  He has been worth the signing but not the value signing we want.  Gallo has been much better than the Correa signing.  Though I’m not going to complain too much yet about the Correa signing.  If Correa can get his batting average over .250-.260 this season he will be ok.  His power numbers are consistent with past seasons.  The Platinum Glove season Correa had seems to be an outlier season.  He is good on defense and being above average for most of his six seasons is fine by me at SS.  
 

You are spot on about Vazquez.  I hope he starts hitting soon.  He doesn’t need to hit a ton but a .270 average with some doubles and occasional HR would help on offense.  
 

really the only negative from the 3 free agents above is their batting averages are all so far below what they should be and with others with a lower then expected batting average our offense is suffering because of this.  

If Gallo can continue on the 7-8 homers per month pace, we can put up with the .190 average & 40% strikeout rate. His defensive depth potential at 3 positions can’t be overlooked.

If CC gets his yearly average up to .245-.250 (30 plus points) he will have been an effective hitter in the 2nd half.

Vazquez getting to his career average of “only .270” is a pretty unrealistic ask. Pretty sure the league BA is under .240 & he’s hitting .225 now……..if he can get to .250 it would be a big shot in the arm……he’d have to hit near .280 for the 2nd half. Solano has 3 HR - nobody complaining about his power - Vázquez getting XBH isn’t important as he’s the slowest individual on the team. Less double plays & some more hits with RISP would be nice.

ALL 3 have plenty of time to get their numbers up to reasonable for the season. These guys hitting their career averages will help us win ballgames v. the first half underperforming.

[Greggory Masterson]

1 hour ago, Clear Lake Twinsfan said:

Appreciate your analysis. I think that you could have also included Jose DeLeon in your list, who also signed an milb deal and prior to his unfortunate injury, appeared to have claimed a low to mid-leverage role in the Twins bullpen.

Thanks for this--I had notes on De Leon and everything, but it looks like I just skipped over them as I was compiling this analysis.

[JD-TWINS]

The consistency, along with a few high points from each, have proven the FO acquiring Farmer - Castro - Solano - Stewart were all very astute.

Arraez v. Lopez:

Do we think as a group that if Arraez was hitting .325 or even .298 that we wouldn’t have so much to be embarrassed about? I hear pundits on TV & written contributors at TD state that we got the bad end of this trade because Luis is flirting with .400. Am fairly sure he was hitting .365 last year in late July…….he had a .316 career BA after ‘22. He lead the AL in BA last year. His productivity & high average are no surprise. The level of his productivity will come down just like CC’s will go up. Arraez is a great hitter and will remain so - we made a decision to trade that very difficult to replicate skill, and get a solid pitcher to help us be more competitive every 5th day.

Our “W total” isn’t hinged on Arraez having a down year & us being perceived to have won a trade! No embarrassment if he hits .410 - hope he does. Lopez is grinding & trying to get better……we have him for 3.5 years more at a minimum & I expect good things. Here’s to good health for both!!

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

The consistency, along with a few high points from each, have proven the FO acquiring Farmer - Castro - Solano - Stewart were all very astute.

Arraez v. Lopez:

Do we think as a group that if Arraez was hitting .325 or even .298 that we wouldn’t have so much to be embarrassed about? I hear pundits on TV & written contributors at TD state that we got the bad end of this trade because Luis is flirting with .400. Am fairly sure he was hitting .365 last year in late July…….he had a .316 career BA after ‘22. He lead the AL in BA last year. His productivity & high average are no surprise. The level of his productivity will come down just like CC’s will go up. Arraez is a great hitter and will remain so - we made a decision to trade that very difficult to replicate skill, and get a solid pitcher to help us be more competitive every 5th day.

Our “W total” isn’t hinged on Arraez having a down year & us being perceived to have won a trade! No embarrassment if he hits .410 - hope he does. Lopez is grinding & trying to get better……we have him for 3.5 years more at a minimum & I expect good things. Here’s to good health for both!!

The trade is not just based on Arraez and his historic season.  It is also about Lopez and the expectations being better than the production.

[mikelink45]

Can we restructure best to worst?

1. Castro - who could have seen this?
2. Steward - another surprise that saved the first half BP
3. Tied Solano and Farmer - they have been very valuable to us.
4. Taylor - he has done what we have wanted.  At times his bat comes alive, but mostly he has covered from Buxton's absence in the OF
5. Lopez - he has taken the mount regularly and given us satisfactory production even if below expectations.
6. De Leon - the SSS looks really good.
7. Correa - he can climb the list, but we have had a bad first half of production
8. Vasquez - he can catch, but did he leave his bat behind?
9. Gallo - two stretches of power with a prolonged period of swing and misses and his defense has not been what was promised.

[weitz41]

In truth most of these signings/trades have turned out better than I expected. If I had to choose one, I dislike, it has to be Gallo. Not as much because of what he has done so far, but because of Larnach and Wallner being in AAA now. the rest I believe will by Oct or already are good to great signings/trades.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Gallo can continue on the 7-8 homers per month pace, we can put up with the .190 average & 40% strikeout rate. His defensive depth potential at 3 positions can’t be overlooked.

If CC gets his yearly average up to .245-.250 (30 plus points) he will have been an effective hitter in the 2nd half.

Vazquez getting to his career average of “only .270” is a pretty unrealistic ask. Pretty sure the league BA is under .240 & he’s hitting .225 now……..if he can get to .250 it would be a big shot in the arm……he’d have to hit near .280 for the 2nd half. Solano has 3 HR - nobody complaining about his power - Vázquez getting XBH isn’t important as he’s the slowest individual on the team. Less double plays & some more hits with RISP would be nice.

ALL 3 have plenty of time to get their numbers up to reasonable for the season. These guys hitting their career averages will help us win ballgames v. the first half underperforming.

I can't complain about Solano's 3 HR cause he is hitting doubles and his on base percentage is so high and He has never hit many HRs so that was known going into the season.  .371 OBP coming into today's game.  You are spot on with the rest of your comments.  

The only other complaint I have would be to see Taylor get some walks at a higher clip.  or get his OBP over .300 for the season.  

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

Gallo has his OPS back over .800 he has been on a little tear lately.  He has been worth the signing but not the value signing we want.  Gallo has been much better than the Correa signing.  thers with a lower then expected batting average our offense is suffering because of this.  

He probably hasn't been worth the signing. He's contributed massively to the offensive struggles the last two months and he's actively blocking players that need regular ABs. 

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Gallo can continue on the 7-8 homers per month pace, we can put up with the .190 average & 40% strikeout rate. His defensive depth potential at 3 positions can’t be overlooked..

His K% is actually about 50% over the last two months, and that includes his recent "hot streak." His pace the last two weeks, or what you're referencing in April isn't sustainable. We saw that in May and through most of June. The Twins don't need him at 1B, he isn't a CF'er, and he's blocking Larnach and/or Wallner in the corners. The absolute best case is that he hits a couple more HR's, doesn't turn back into a pumpkin before the deadline, and some quasi contender convinces themselves he's worth a lotto ticket. 

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Can we restructure best to worst?

1. Castro - who could have seen this?
2. Steward - another surprise that saved the first half BP
3. Tied Solano and Farmer - they have been very valuable to us.
4. Taylor - he has done what we have wanted.  At times his bat comes alive, but mostly he has covered from Buxton's absence in the OF
5. Lopez - he has taken the mount regularly and given us satisfactory production even if below expectations.
6. De Leon - the SSS looks really good.
7. Correa - he can climb the list, but we have had a bad first half of production
8. Vasquez - he can catch, but did he leave his bat behind?
9. Gallo - two stretches of power with a prolonged period of swing and misses and his defense has not been what was promised.

The only player on the team with 100ABs and a higher OPS than Gallo is Lewis.  99 ABs but close enough.  He plays good D and 1st and corner OF.  Plus, it's a one-year deal.  How do you rank that last?   I don't understand Vasquez 8th either.   He is here to manage the pitching staff and play defense which he has done.  Castro's OPS is 684 and his wRC+ is 93.  It was 86 last year.  What's the big surprise?  I would rank him behind Stewart / Solano, Farmer and Lopez.  I would rank him above Gallo because we have two more years of control for a pretty ideal bench player.

 

BTW.  Haniger was a much higher profile signing.  He got 3/$43.5M and his OPS wRC+ is 40 points below Gallo.

[roger]

Got a question.  Would Arraez be flirting with .400 if he were still a Twin and coached by our hitting coaches?

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The only player on the team with 100ABs and a higher OPS than Gallo is Lewis.  99 ABs but close enough.  He plays good D and 1st and corner OF.  Plus, it's a one-year deal.  How do you rank that last?   I don't understand Vasquez 8th either.   He is here to manage the pitching staff and play defense which he has done.  Castro's OPS is 684 and his wRC+ is 93.  It was 86 last year.  What's the big surprise?  I would rank him behind Stewart / Solano, Farmer and Lopez.  I would rank him above Gallo because we have two more years of control for a pretty ideal bench player.

 

BTW.  Haniger was a much higher profile signing.  He got 3/$43.5M and his OPS wRC+ is 40 points below Gallo.

We did not even think Castro would be on the team.  It was a minor league signing and how much have we played him?  I think he is a big surprise and Baldelli sure seems to like him. 

Vasquez is constantly in TD comments.  Jeffers is surpassing him and he was expected to do much more. 

Everyone on TD should know by now I do not like Gallo and all the stats and comments will not change it.  I did not like Dunn or Kingman either and they were better than Gallo.

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The only player on the team with 100ABs and a higher OPS than Gallo is Lewis.  

Normally I like OPS as overall offensive stat as well as any other.  But recently I was looking around and comparing Wins Above Average, which to my eye correlates well with OPS (except when defense is either end of the spectrum), to Win Probability Added, and Gallo is a huge outlier.  WAA about zero (average player), negative WPA.  (Both stats take .500 performance as a baseline, unlike WAR and OPS, and think in terms of where wins come from.)  Career wise his WAA is positive, his WPA negative.  His contributions don't come often enough when the team needs him, if you buy WPA's logic.  He had a couple big homers this week.  But his negative performances are death by a thousand cuts.

His OPS is kind of suspect IMO.

[dxpavelka]

I said all off season that they basically did nothing to improve the offense.  Correa was here last year so that's a wash.  Vasquez' only redeeming quality is that he's not Omar Narvaez.  Gallo?  Please!  Don't try to justify a guy whose batting average is below the Mendoza line.  Farmer?  I know it wasn't an actual trade but he basically replaced Gio Urshella.  It was NOT a clear win.  Solano?  C'mon.  Quit lying to yourself.  Makes you look as stupid as when you were gushing about guys like Jake Cave & Kyle Garlick.  At the end of the day, they took a team that scored fewer than 700 runs last year and turned it into a team that will almost certainly score fewer than 700 runs this year with better pitching.  ONE team wins the World Series each year.  The other 29 had better be entertaining.  This one is not.

[Brandon]

9 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He probably hasn't been worth the signing. He's contributed massively to the offensive struggles the last two months and he's actively blocking players that need regular ABs. 

His K% is actually about 50% over the last two months, and that includes his recent "hot streak." His pace the last two weeks, or what you're referencing in April isn't sustainable. We saw that in May and through most of June. The Twins don't need him at 1B, he isn't a CF'er, and he's blocking Larnach and/or Wallner in the corners. The absolute best case is that he hits a couple more HR's, doesn't turn back into a pumpkin before the deadline, and some quasi contender convinces themselves he's worth a lotto ticket. 

Gallo is not blocking Larnarch.  Larnarch hasn’t seized his opportunity.  Do you want an .800 OPS hitter in your lineup or a.690 OPS hitter.   If the OPS’s were reversed your blocking claim would be correct.  You have a case that Wallner is being blocked. But not by Gallo….Kepler maybe but he is hitting better lately too so who knows.

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, Brandon said:

Gallo is not blocking Larnarch.  Larnarch hasn’t seized his opportunity.  Do you want an .800 OPS hitter in your lineup or a.690 OPS hitter.   If the OPS’s were reversed your blocking claim would be correct.  You have a case that Wallner is being blocked. But not by Gallo….Kepler maybe but he is hitting better lately too so who knows.

Would I trade .100 points from what I'd consider to be a pretty empty OPS for the opportunity to see if a 26 year old, who may have an actual future with the team, can stay healthy and be consistently productive? Yep. 

[RpR]

21 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Would I trade .100 points from what I'd consider to be a pretty empty OPS for the opportunity to see if a 26 year old, who may have an actual future with the team, can stay healthy and be consistently productive? Yep. 

That is a crapshoot, using known stats probabiity  verses unknown probablility.

Works OK in the Minors, but even by AAA odds are not good.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Would I trade .100 points from what I'd consider to be a pretty empty OPS for the opportunity to see if a 26 year old, who may have an actual future with the team, can stay healthy and be consistently productive? Yep. 

Gallo has one of the highest on base percentages on the offense.  I think only Killeroff and Solano are higher with Lewis when he gets more At Bats. He leads the team in HRs too so how is it empty?  Yes I think he needs a higher batting average and more productive outs too but he is more positive in the lineup then most of the rest of the line up.  If anything Kepler should cede playing time except that Larnarch hasn’t beaten him out either.  If he did He would be the starter.  

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, ashbury said:

Normally I like OPS as overall offensive stat as well as any other.  But recently I was looking around and comparing Wins Above Average, which to my eye correlates well with OPS (except when defense is either end of the spectrum), to Win Probability Added, and Gallo is a huge outlier.  WAA about zero (average player), negative WPA.  (Both stats take .500 performance as a baseline, unlike WAR and OPS, and think in terms of where wins come from.)  Career wise his WAA is positive, his WPA negative.  His contributions don't come often enough when the team needs him, if you buy WPA's logic.  He had a couple big homers this week.  But his negative performances are death by a thousand cuts.

His OPS is kind of suspect IMO.

Context is important here.  I am not saying Gallo is great.  I was responding to a post that rated him as the worst of all our off-season acquisitions.   We gave up nothing in trade and it's a one year deal.  It's hard for that type of deal to be terrible.

 I agree with you that OPS is sometimes suspect.  I prefer wRC+.  Gallo's rating there is 121.   Jeffers and Kirilloff are 120 and Lewis is 132.   Again, not trying to say he is great.  I would be just fine with them cutting him tomorrow to bring up Wallner.  I'm just saying no way was he the worst of all the off-season acquisitions.

[KirbyDome89]

44 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Gallo has one of the highest on base percentages on the offense.  I think only Killeroff and Solano are higher with Lewis when he gets more At Bats. He leads the team in HRs too so how is it empty?  Yes I think he needs a higher batting average and more productive outs too but he is more positive in the lineup then most of the rest of the line up.  If anything Kepler should cede playing time except that Larnarch hasn’t beaten him out either.  If he did He would be the starter.  

Gallo has an OBP below league average, he isn't working his way on at any sort of impressive clip. The OPS, which now sits sub .800, is HR driven, and those HR clusters have been oases in a desert of offensive ineptitude, i.e. he's a black hole a vast majority of the time. To me, that's pretty empty. 

Yeah, I'd put Kepler in the same boat, but for guys like Larnach or Wallner to beat out the incumbents, they need to be given the opportunity to do so. The Twins seem very content to continue investing innings into Kepler and/or Gallo despite the lack of production. 

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, Brandon said:

Gallo is not blocking Larnarch.  Larnarch hasn’t seized his opportunity.  Do you want an .800 OPS hitter in your lineup or a.690 OPS hitter.   If the OPS’s were reversed your blocking claim would be correct.  You have a case that Wallner is being blocked. But not by Gallo….Kepler maybe but he is hitting better lately too so who knows.

DON'T want a .193 hitter.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

 I agree with you that OPS is sometimes suspect.  I prefer wRC+.  Gallo's rating there is 121. 

I know there are arguments for wRC but I can't remember a time when I found that it and OPS were at odds on a player I was looking at.  Right now b-r.com has OPS+ of 117 for Gallo, and these numbers are barely worth one significant digit (not counting the leading 1 or 0), so this and 121 are basically congruent.  wRC+ doesn't give me insight that OPS+ doesn't already, so I rarely resort to it.

WPA has real problems, especially if used as "is this guy good?" versus "what kind of year has he had?"  Still, as I said, I find that ordinarily WPA pairs up with WAA (which for a full season is roughly like WAR-2.0), to suggest how well the player contributes to being over .500.  Gallo is an outlier, for whatever reason.  Between WPA or WAA (or wRC+), which one gives the fairest picture, I don't know if there is an absolute answer out there.  I do think Gallo's negative WPA is more congruent with what fans who post at TD have said his season feels like to them.