4 Prospects the Twins Might Focus on with the #49 Pick

[Jamie Cameron]

This week, we’ll spend some time looking at prospects the Twins might take with the 49th overall pick. As usual with these pieces, the goal is not to make predictions, rather, to give an overview of the type of talent that might be available to teams with this pick. I’ve used these prospects’ current ranking on the Consensus Board to cluster prospects for each team.

Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

The Twins are in a strong position entering the 2023 MLB Draft. In addition to having the fourth largest bonus pool, north of $14.3 million, they have four top 100 picks, and three in the top 50. The 2023 Draft class is loaded with talent, one of the strongest in years. In the build up to the Draft, we're going to share some names to watch at particular spots that give an indication of the caliber of talent that might be available for a particular pick. Today, we'll dig into the Twins pick at #49 overall.

Jake Gelof
Position: 3B, Age: 21, School: Virginia, Height: 6’1, Weight: 195, B/T: R/R, Rank: 38 
Gelof is a stretch to get to 49, but it’s indicative of the depth of talent in this Draft class that he’s even in the conversation. His brother was drafted in 2021 by the As in the second round. Gelof has been pulverizing baseballs in 2023. At the plate, he has an aggressive approach with plus power, particularly to the pull side. He does chase out of the zone but has good contact rates inside the zone. Gelof has a solid approach at the plate. He’s cut his strikeouts in 2023 and has a 20 BB%, so there’s on base value there. Defensively, Gelof isn’t a great athlete or mover, although he has an at least an above average arm. He’ll likely start out his pro career at third base but there’s a chance he moves to first base eventually. Power is the carrying tool here, but the on-base skills give a solid offensive floor, particularly if he can cut his K%.

Brice Matthews
Position: SS, Age: 21, School: Nebraska, Height: 6’0, Weight: 190, B/T: R/R, Rank: 43
Such is the magnitude of Matthews’ 2023 breakout, he’s been talked about as a late first round or sandwich pick. If you’re interested in targeting an uptick in production on the 2023 season, he’s your guy. Matthews has a compact right handed swing and put up excellent exit velocities for Nebraska in 2023. He can get chase heavy at times, evidenced by his 25 K% which is a concern with his approach. He’s improved his BB% this season from 16% to 23% so there are tangible improvements, to go with a .359/.481/.723 line 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Defensively, Matthews has a shot to stick at shortstop given his outstanding athleticism. He’ll be an average defender if he does, but could easily kick over to second base or even move to center field. If the breakout is legit, Matthews could be a huge steal.

Tanner Witt
Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Texas, Height: 6’5, Weight: 215, B/T: R/R, Rank: 46
Witt’s story will be a familiar one for Minnesota Twins Draft fans. He had TJ surgery and returned to throw for interested teams close to the Draft. Unlike Connor Prielipp however, Witt returned to in-game action for a Longhorns team about to compete in a Super Regional at the time of writing. On the mound, Witt is imposing at 6’5 and has a ton of projection left. Pre-surgery, his fastball sat 93-95 mph but could grab 97 mph, with good run. His best breaker is a big 12-6 curveball that the bottom drops out of. It’s a strikeout weapon and a legit swing and miss pitch. Witt also has a slider and a changeup that are emerging but give him the strong platform a four-pitch mix offers. Unsurprisingly, Witt was a little uneven in his return from injury, looking inconsistent with both control and stuff. His track record at UT is limited, just 68 innings pre-injury, but the stuff, frame, and projectability are undeniably exciting.

Mac Horvath
Position: 3B/OF, Age: 21, School: North Carolina, Height: 6’1, Weight: 200, B/T: R/R, Rank: 86
Horvath is likely to garner plenty of attention from Twins Daily readers as he's a product of Rochester, MN. The North Carolina outfielder has one of the more intriguing power/speed contributions of any college hitter and has improved every year for the Tar Heels. At the plate, it's a power over hit approach and his strikeout rate is a concern, despite strong on base numbers. Horvath has at least above average speed and solid defensive chops. He's played third base and in the outfield for North Carolina, taking advantage of a great throwing arm in either spot. He'd be a great fit in right field long term. In 2023, he put up a .305/.418/.711 line with 24 home runs and 25 steals through the end of the college season. You can add 18 BB% to the appeal, but the 25 K% gives you pause. If he can cut down on the strikeouts, there's a ton of impact there.

Who are your favorite prospects mentioned? What are other names that intrigue you with this pick? Join our draft speculation in the comments below.

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[roger]

Is our #49 pick our second round pick?  Will it be our second pick in the draft?

Is Witt related to the K.C. shortstop?

I doubt it will be with our first pick, but really want the Twins to get a catcher high in this draft, a catcher that can help with their #1 need hopefully within a few years.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd prefer not to take a guy that might have to play first or DH..... repeating myself, I know 

The guy from Nebraska is interesting....

[Jamie Cameron]

42 minutes ago, roger said:

Is our #49 pick our second round pick?  Will it be our second pick in the draft?

Is Witt related to the K.C. shortstop?

I doubt it will be with our first pick, but really want the Twins to get a catcher high in this draft, a catcher that can help with their #1 need hopefully within a few years.

49 is the second round pick but the Twins third pick in the Draft. They also have a comp pick at 34. Witt no relation to Bobby. This draft is brutal for catching. Teel in the top 10, Mitchell in the top 20, then you have a gap of about 40-60 picks

[Jamie Cameron]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd prefer not to take a guy that might have to play first or DH..... repeating myself, I know 

The guy from Nebraska is interesting....

I think you care less about that when you get to your third pick in the draft although I get that vibe with how the Twins MLB team is playing out. Gelof will stick at third at least through his MiLB career to see if he can figure it out.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I think you care less about that when you get to your third pick in the draft although I get that vibe with how the Twins MLB team is playing out. Gelof will stick at third at least through his MiLB career to see if he can figure it out.

It's why I never liked the rooker pick....I do agree, you care less at 49 .... But give me a pitcher or guy who can both hit and field. 

[Blyleven2011]

I just hope we draft the best athletic available  5 tool players  , if the draft is heavy with talent  there should be alot of 5 tool players to go around , we need players that will be exciting and make the highlight plays   ...

No 1 tool player that can hit only or injury prone player please  ...

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks again Jamie. I'm really big on Cole Carrigg. Coming into this college season, IMO Carrigg was 2nd best college catcher out there. But much like Wyatt Langford, Carrigg was shifted from catcher to OF (he was good in the OF but IMO his worse position) because of need. Carrigg is very athletic & can excell anywhere. But because he was shifted off catcher many catorize him as w/o a position & rank him around maybe around our 3rd round pick, which I believe is wrong. Carrigg is a switch hitter, fast, a great arm & has a great hit tool that can still develop into pretty good power. I wouldn't want to take a chance on losing him to try to steal him in the 3rd round. So he's well worth our #49 pick as a catcher.

[Doctor Gast]

With the CWS competition. I believe can play a big role on the final positioning of the draft picks. Depending how well or bad they perform

[Ricky Vaughn]

All the hitters have strike out problems. Does anyone really believe this organization can help them?

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's why I never liked the rooker pick....I do agree, you care less at 49 .... But give me a pitcher or guy who can both hit and field. 

"Chance to stick at short" is the phrase that pays for me.

[Dman]

I know it can work but power over hit seems like a waste that high in the draft.  So many of those guys are K machines and end up at 1st base or DH.  I think the better approach is what the Twins did with Spencer Steer.  He had a good eye at the plate, good contact skills and they helped him develop more power as he moved through the system.  Kind of the same story for Lamonte Wade who they got in the 9th round.  You have to be able to hit the ball consistently to make a difference so start with that tool and try and build out from there.  I am not opposed to taking power over hit later in the draft just not early.

Matthews is interesting but after the Rooker, Leech and Cavaco helium picks I have soured on those types of risk.  I would prefer to take a player that has fallen than a helium pick.  If a guy like that is available later like Holland was that is a better place to take that kind of risk IMO.

I was all in on trying to get Tanner Witt with the sandwich pick in the 1st round earlier in the year but with Prielipp having so many issues after TJ I just don't feel confident taking taking Witt with even the 2nd round selection.  If\when Witt comes back I think he might be a difference making arm but Prielipp makes me feel a bit snake bit there. I would say I am on the fence with that pick at that spot right now.

I know there is no "safe" pick in the draft as lot's of valued players are not going to turn out and just because you had a bad experience with a certain type of player doesn't mean the next will turn out the same way.  Still my philosophy is to build on bat first players with a good eye at the plate.  You can work on defense.  You can work on Power.  If you can't hit the round ball very often odds are you never make it.  Start with the tool that matters most and if they have other tools in their pocket all the better but power would not be my focus in the early rounds.  Contact would be.  If they have both all the better give me as many tools as possible with the early picks as long as the hit tool is a strength.

Taking pitchers early is a gamble but this seems like a year they could do that if they wanted to.  They have a core group of young hitters about to hit the majors at AAA and have some pretty good potential coming up from High A.  The system is lacking in elite pitching potential.  They also have quite a group of good hitters in the FCL that will likely need room at A ball next year so again there is more room for pitching at the lower levels than hitting IMO. I know the Twins value a balanced draft as they seem to go 5 pitchers and 5 hitters in the top 10 and pretty much the same 11-20.  Not saying they have to ignore hitters all together but they need to build up pitching at the lower levels so they should take more pitching this year.  Whether that is higher or lower in the draft doesn't matter too much to me as it seems they have done better lower in the draft than higher in recent years but taking a shot at top end guy early wouldn't hurt either.

 

 

[DocBauer]

I've stated in the last OP that there is a chance the Twins might go HS player twice. Money to spend and potential it MIGHT happen.

But I agree with Dman that the FO has to look at HIT ability FIRST and power second in the early rounds. Budding power is better than extreme power with limited hit ability. 

I like Mathews a lot as an athlete with the ability to play anywhere.  I like him better than Geloff.

I'm not scared by Witt. He went through TJ already and returned to the rotation for his college team. Odds are he won't go through it again. The physical tools are there to make a next step. He might be a 1st round talent who slips just based on being "acared" his arm and control don't return. I think he might be a real steal.

Not IN on Horvath unless I'm convinced he's a future 3B. I just don't trust a pick that high for a 3B unless I'm convinced he has the hands and arm to play the spot. Seen too many 3B converts to 1B and OF.

I'd be in on Matthews or Witt at this spot.

 

[Shs_2]

Yeah I like Gelof or Mathews there if they even left; they might be gone.

1) brooks Lee

2) royce Lewis ***

3) emanuel Rodriguez 

4) Langford/ Jenkins/ Clark

5) Marco Raya

6) Jose Rodriguez

7) connor prielip 8) Wallner 9.) Festa 10) Varland* / SWR    11.) Geloff/ Mathews / 49th pick 

12.) Jorel Ortega 13.) Yasser Mercedes 14) M Canterino 15.) Austin Martin 16.) Tanner Schobel 17.) Noah Miller 18.) Balazovic/ Morris 19.) De Andrade 20.) C Lewis 21.) Keirsey *

22.) MaCloud 23.) Jose Salas 24.) Zebby Mathews 25.) Ariel Castro 26.) Yunior severino 27.) Alejandro Hidalgo  28.)  Acuna   29.) Rafael Cruz  30.) Eduardo Soriano 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jamie Cameron]

13 hours ago, Shs_2 said:

Yeah I like Gelof or Mathews there if they even left; they might be gone.

1) brooks Lee

2) royce Lewis ***

3) emanuel Rodriguez 

4) Langford/ Jenkins/ Clark

5) Marco Raya

6) Jose Rodriguez

7) connor prielip 8) Wallner 9.) Festa 10) Varland* / SWR    11.) Geloff/ Mathews / 49th pick 

12.) Jorel Ortega 13.) Yasser Mercedes 14) M Canterino 15.) Austin Martin 16.) Tanner Schobel 17.) Noah Miller 18.) Balazovic/ Morris 19.) De Andrade 20.) C Lewis 21.) Keirsey *

22.) MaCloud 23.) Jose Salas 24.) Zebby Mathews 25.) Ariel Castro 26.) Yunior severino 27.) Alejandro Hidalgo  28.)  Acuna   29.) Rafael Cruz  30.) Eduardo Soriano 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If this is a prospect ranking, I believe it would go:

1) Langford/Jenkins/Clark

2) Lee

3) Royce (soon to graduate)

And that's not me being critical. Heard a number of folks talk about Crews/Skenes placement in top 100 lists would be top 15, Langford top 25, the prep hitters top 35. We'll see how that shakes out but if the Twins land one of the Consensus top 5, he's their new number 1 prospect. 

[SteveLV]

I know this thread is about pick 49, but I really like the fire in this Clark kid.  Apparently there are "personality" concerns, but who cares if he has a strong personality?  They can't all be choir boys, and he looks to have immense talent and feisty.

[2wins87]

Getting a leftover college bat might be a good play of going with the strength of the draft, but at this point I also like the idea of a HS pitcher, particularly if they've already landed two position players which seems fairly probable.

HS pitching seems to be kind of weak at the top with Meyer being the only surefire 1st rounder, and White and Soto being the other probable guys who might also slip out of the first round, so there don't seem to necessarily be many targets with their earlier picks.  Seems to be a few projectable HS arms that could go in the 50 range though.  Maybe Blake Wolters or Landon Maroudis.  There are a few other names too.