Twins 1, Blue Jays 3: Big Walks Keep on Turning, Blue Jays Keep on Burning (the Twins)

[Linus]

I really like Varland. He really attacks the hitters and fills up the zone. Because of that he is going to get jumped on sometimes like last night but give me that over the nibblers. 
 

I think the old concept of protect the plate with two outs is still valid especially with some of these umps. 

[Whitey333]

Let's face the facts.  Nothing much has changed the past two seasons and now this one.  Same boring team, same boring manager, same boring results.

[hitterscount]

The most frustrating piece of this season is we haven't had starting pitching this good in like forever. SP wins games, or at least it should... and they continue to hand game after game away. 

An article earlier in the year talked about a batting coach change, I said then and will again... a change is needed, but it should be the manager shown the door. The decisions made on almost a daily basis, are head scratching at best. The change should have been made last winter, but instead an extension was the reward for this inept product.

Knowing nothing will change I will continue watching and hoping Correa and Buxton become white hot and carry them to a .500 record and a playoff ousting sweep to keep that streak intact.... but we could pitch a shutout to end it,,,, fingers crossed when/if they get to that point.  

[TwinkieFan4life]

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

We’re bad offensively, but we’re not missing Gio Urshella and his 86 OPS+.

Can he make contact with the ball when runners are in scoring position with less than 2 outs?  If so, we miss him.

[TwinkieFan4life]

I have hope that the lineup will be better with Royce, Polanco, and Kirillof playing at the same time.  That said, the front office needs to make a statement and fire the hitting coach and/or manager.  This team competes with the intensity of a mediocre beer league softball team.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Blue Jays were 2-8 in their last ten…not exactly rolling.

The pinch hitting for Kirilloff (while he’s been hitting fine and showing power, no less) with the likes of Solano and now Castro…and early in games as well…Is this not inexcusable? Or just embarrassing? Or is it just me?

It's not just you... it has become a golden rule not to be broken, only club in the bag type move that is being consistently made and I openly question it along with ya. 

Let's look at everyone involved. 

Tim Mayza - Left Hander - The Only Left hander in the Jays Bullpen. Mayza has been real good this year primarily as a left handed specialist.

This Year - Sample Size 18.2 Innings

.543 OPS (40 AB's) vs Left Handed Batters - .573 OPS (30 AB's) vs Right

Mayza has been real tough against both sides of the plate this year. It's a small sample size but based on this year... It doesn't matter if he is facing a lefty or righty. He's been equally lights out good against both but you can see by facing more lefties than righties... he is deployed to take on left handed hitters. That is his role.   

Over his career... his splits are much more pronounced and they suggest he is indeed a left handed specialist with a .772 OPS against right compared to a .565 OPS against left. 

This year says it doesn't really matter but his career will suggest that your odds are better with a right handed hitter facing him. Rocco is justified to match up.  

However... Willi Castro?  

Willi Castro - Switch hitter

This Year - Sample Size 89 AB's 

Vs. Left - 38 AB's - .237 BA - .694 OPS 

Vs. Right - 51 AB's - .255 BA - .688 OPS

Career - Sample Size 1,096 AB's

Vs. Left - 329 AB's - .271 BA - .709 OPS

Vs. Right - 767 AB's - .235 BA - .660 OPS

His career numbers suggest that Castro is slightly better against left handers but... let's be clear... His 2023 numbers and his career numbers suggest that he isn't really a good hitter against either hand. 

Let's look at Alex Kirilloff:

He has had 9 AB's this year against lefties... 2 hits including a home run off of Matt Moore in California. But... let's not draw any conclusion on 9 AB's. So let's go straight to his career numbers which as we all know has been complicated by injuries. 

Career numbers:

Vs. Left - 111 AB's - .248 BA - .721 OPS 

Vs. Right - 340 AB's - .256 BS - .716 OPS

Kirilloff is a wash but still better than Castro against left handers. 

I'll concede that Mayza by himself is a reason to bring in a right hander but doesn't it still matter if that right handed bat has any talent. 

Some additional questions: 

1st Question: If you are concerned at all about Mayza and his deployment against your lefties and Rocco clearly is because he pinch hit a worse hitter standing on the correct side of the plate. Why that batting order?

Why was Kirilloff hitting 4th and Julien hitting 6th. Wallner and Gallo didn't start, Castro a switch hitter was also on the bench. There were only two left handed hitters in the starting lineup last night and you had one of them 4th and the other 6th so they both could be impacted by the left handed specialist coming out of the bullpen. Wouldn't it make more sense to bat Julien 8th in the order to make Mayza go through 3 right handers before getting to the next lefty. In other words he wouldn't. 

2nd Question: Why does platoon split data seem to over ride all of the other metrics that should be making it's way down to field level? There are a gaggle of analysts working for your organization gathering data, they shouldn't be repeating work so therefore lots of analysts should equate to lots and lots of different data.

Why does the hand of the pitcher seem to be the only thing that causes an adjustment in the batting order. An 0 for 25 streak won't cause an adjustment to the batting order so why does the left handed pitcher/right handed pitcher standing on the mound seem to trump every single data point. I'm going to assume that there are a lot of other data points that suggest that Kirilloff is a better hitter than Castro. Why does that data get over ruled?  

Bunch of questions: Are there minor league splits that suggest that Kirilloff should be platooned? Are you training him to only face right handed pitching? If the Twins make the playoffs... is it your plan to have Kirilloff sit against left handed pitching?  

I'm not anti-platoon... I'm anti blind strict adherence to the platoon and it appears to be what is happening. 

BTW... Because I find it funny... and not to imply that it was Nostradamus-ish. In another thread... I was joking around with @chpettit19 and I said... that deploying Mayza early would deplete the options early so Garlick would have to face a right hander at the end of the game.  

And it happened... Turns out it wasn't Garlick... It was Castro who came around in the order again after facing the masterful Mayza.

Garlick started the game against a right hander surprise surprise which never happens. He drove in the only run of the game against a right hander and Castro... was able to single to keep the game alive against a right hander in the 9th after coming in as a specialist to battle the left handed dragon. So... basically none of these lefty/righty shenanigans mattered in a situation by situation sample. 

I'm going to continue to support my team and front office and coaching staff but I'm going to continue to ask. Are we just platooning for the sake of platooning. What is going on? Can we just start looking for hitters that can hit.   

Sincerely,

 

Riverbrian

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

2 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

I have a feeling this is gonna be a long summer with lots of quality pitching but next to no run support. 

If the lack of hitting keeps up the pitchers will start feeling like they have to be perfect. Then the mistakes will start. suddenly the score will be 8-1 instead of 3-1

[rwilfong86]

17 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

If the lack of hitting keeps up the pitchers will start feeling like they have to be perfect. Then the mistakes will start. suddenly the score will be 8-1 instead of 3-1

Highly possible. 

[wornsmooth]

11 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Some positives to take away from a tough loss:

• Twins batters showed outstanding patience today, working at least 18 3-ball counts and drawing 9 walks (sadly, they were not rewarded for this approach - one might even say they wuz robbed)
• Conversely, Twins pitchers threw an aggregate 72.1 % of their pitches for strikes
• Carlos Correa is a monster in the infield; adds value by preventing runs, not just generating them

Good post.

It is also hard to both beat a good team AND the umps.

Taylor had an RBI walk changed by fiat to a K.

A game changer. Instead of a one run game with bases still loaded, well, we had what we had.

The Twins have been flat since umpiring took a well played game from them in LA, then changed a well pitched game by Lopez into a mess.

Yeah, I know, good teams get over it etc.

But this is getting old watching flagrant umpiring flubs.

[wornsmooth]

When I was young and following baseball, it was unusual to see a player moved to different positions day to day. Ceasar Tovar was a rarity in this regard. Killebrew did some back and forth between 1st and 3rd, but again, not common.

   One reason....get really good at that position, and in your home park. Is this part of the reason that fly balls to the warning track or fence go uncaught? Outfielders not playing the same position enough to "know" where the wall is?

Kirrillof misplay of fly ball bounce turning a long single to a triple. I don't consider it his fault. He is being bounced first to OF like a manager can just plug a player into a slot. In my biased opinion it should only be done when no other option exists.

lastly, i am beginning to suspect much of the poor hitting comes from switching players around. It is a HUGE distraction from your preperation for at-bats to also have to rethink how you play in the field.

my personal opinion is this willy nilly moving players around costs 10 to 20 points to the teams batting average.

 

 

[OvertheHill]

I wish I could be more optimistic about a reversal of fortunes but this team is built with these 3 true outcome types of hitters. It’s going to continue to be feast or famine, folks. Maybe a couple of more fundamentally sound guys (e.g. Lewis?) mixed in would help change the chemistry, but as it is we’re stuck with this mess. I hope the FO is happy; this fan is not. 

[David Maro]

Everyone talks about the about the 9 walks that mean nothing if they can't hit. Again bases loaded and standing there taking pitches down the middle,and going back to the dugout is ridiculous. At least fire the hitting coach now. The starters need to go to the FO and speak their minds. I would like to know how many games with 9 walks for 1 team only could score 1 run. I think that they far and few between. The problem with bases loaded for this team is looking for the pitch to hit into the seats that never comes. Can't even hit a sacrifice fly,that is on coaching. Look for a long season of bad baseball,if no changes are made. The schedule only gets tougher from here.

 

[Riverbrian]

I remain concerned about the hitting but I actually saw last night as positive. They didn't chase that much, they worked the count. 

In the end... it didn't work out but if they can keep that up... things will get better. 

[mnfireman]

I was not a big proponent for automated strike zones and always told the kids I coached to adjust to the ump's zone, but this has become borderline ridiculous. Last night's home plate umpire graded out at 1.93 runs in favor of Toronto. The Twins were working the count and laying off of bad pitches, only to be called out looking several times on pitches out of the zone. How does a team adjust to an inconsistent umpire? While 5 hits is not a good game, an umpire rewarding wild pitching with strike calls literally took the bat out of the team's hands.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

If the lack of hitting keeps up the pitchers will start feeling like they have to be perfect. Then the mistakes will start. suddenly the score will be 8-1 instead of 3-1

That’s a great point. I start missing four footers and the pressure on my short game ramps up considerably. What you suggest re our pitchers is absolutely a real thing.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, wornsmooth said:

Good post.

It is also hard to both beat a good team AND the umps.

Taylor had an RBI walk changed by fiat to a K.

A game changer. Instead of a one run game with bases still loaded, well, we had what we had.

The Twins have been flat since umpiring took a well played game from them in LA, then changed a well pitched game by Lopez into a mess.

Yeah, I know, good teams get over it etc.

But this is getting old watching flagrant umpiring flubs.

Sorry, yes the umps have had their moments, but c’mon we can’t blame our ineptitude on the the umps. Next it will be injuries. Then it will be something else.  Good teams win; bad teams make excuses. 

[joefish]

5 hours ago, bighat said:

I see no reason why Royce Lewis won't be immediately activated when eligible and immediately placed in the #3 hitting spot. 

 

I know Jesus saves, but I don't think Royce can.  I hope I am wrong.

[joefish]

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

If the lack of hitting keeps up the pitchers will start feeling like they have to be perfect. Then the mistakes will start. suddenly the score will be 8-1 instead of 3-1

Yes. And it will get worse fast. 

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Blue Jays were 2-8 in their last ten…not exactly rolling.

The pinch hitting for Kirilloff (while he’s been hitting fine and showing power, no less) with the likes of Solano and now Castro…and early in games as well…Is this not inexcusable? Or just embarrassing? Or is it just me?

Kirilloff started hot and is now down to a normal .275 BA……pinch hitting was a little odd but he’s not Mickey Mantle - need to give Castro a chance from the right side. Solano got a hit the other night when he pinch hit. No complaint there.

[JD-TWINS]

So for all the metrics guys out there that think walks are just as good as base hits, take a hard look at last night & realize BA really matters when trying to score runs - hits matter!!

Blue Jays had 7 hits & zero walks - 3 runs.

 

Twins had 4 hits & 9 walks - 1 run…….OBP doesn’t win games - moving runners forward scores runs and that’s done by putting the ball in play & getting base hits.

We could have signed Eovaldi or Bassitt in free agency & paid Luis $12M a season for a while. Should have - could have - would have……….hope Pablo gets going today!!!

 

 

[SwainZag]

Another shocker.  I hate complaining about umps, but this is really getting ridiculous

 

https://twitter.com/UmpScorecards/status/1662467454629543936?t=QrJbwnpIiaKTxDlngtsQ5w&s=09

[jkcarew]

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

I am.  Crap, right now I would settle for Refsynder (..286 with a .409 OBP).  😏

Somewhat tongue in cheek; but seriously, enough of the OPS being the gold standard.  Our two power hitters are slashing (and I use that term loosely) .211 and .231.  Gallo has 24 hits and 17 are for extra bases.  The other almost 4 out of 5 times?  Buck has just over half his hits for extra bases.  Between the 2?  Just over 35% strike out rate.  As h2oface points out walks just load the bases, so walking them doesn't necessarily hurt a pitcher, and if any of the 21 home runs between them had come with the bases loaded..........I can't let myself think about it.  Enough of the all or nothing golf swings.  Just hit the ball.  Then we will talk about average with balls put in play.  To some of us that beats the solo home run every 3 or 4 (or 5.......) games.  Between Louis, Gio, and Ref, I would take their numbers right now over virtually anyone on this roster.  For all our slugging percentage, we have scored TWO runs or less in exactly 1/3 of our games as of now, and 3 or less not counting extra innings (where you get a ghost runner) over half, so what has it done for us?  Give me the hitters; you can keep the sluggers.  

You would have hated Harmon Killebrew.

Gio Urshella doesn’t make the team better. He  might make it funner to watch for some here. More wins? No.

[Mark G]

On 5/27/2023 at 12:43 PM, jkcarew said:

You would have hated Harmon Killebrew.

Gio Urshella doesn’t make the team better. He  might make it funner to watch for some here. More wins? No.

I noticed you didn't address Louis.  Heck, you didn't even mention my man Ref.  You just seem to not like Gio.  Well, that is fine, some don't I guess, but his replacement is in St. Paul and that makes us put Farmer there.  And as much as I like the Farm man, and I really do, he is no better than Gio, and could be used better than having to play 3rd full time.  

Would we have more wins?  Can't prove a negative.  But I would wager we wouldn't have any fewer either (which I also can't prove).  But we would have another better average hitter and give us flexibility with Farmer.  How that is bad is beyond me, but I will leave it to others to decide.  

And I grew up watching the Killer.  In an era where home runs mattered because you were one of the few swinging for them and guys were more likely to be on base when you did.  And he had between 80 and 140 RBI's for 11 out of 13 years in his prime.  And while his career 162 game average in SO's was 113, his career 162 game average in walks was 104; not a bad ratio, if you ask me (although no one ever does).  😉   Name a Twin.......never mind, we can't.  Even Morneau in his heyday only topped 80 five times in his career, with a 60 walk career average vs. 104 SO career average.  I will take the Brew man, of course, but you have to have the average hitters to make his swings mean much (ask Buck and Joey).  And we just don't have enough.  

Nice of you to read this, if you did, seeing it was a day late.  😏