Three Thoughts From the Twins Season (So Far)

[Matt Braun]

Sometimes you want to talk about Pablo López and Trevor Larnach but don't have enough to material to write full pieces on them.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, Ben Clemens of Fangraphs kicked off a “Five Things I Liked (and Didn’t Like) This Week” series where, in a nod to Zach Lowe’s “10 Things” series for the NBA, he writes on a handful of topics—mainly stats—that may not merit their own piece, but should be noted in some fashion. I am not above thievery, so this article will mark the first of my own “Things” series looking at a few undergoings in the Twins system that are interesting, but not capable of carrying an extended essay. Some weeks may see five topics, but I'll decided to let the game move me as it does, so the number of points will vary. Let’s begin. 

Now, while you, the good baseball fan, should abstain from traditional statistical practice until at least June, there are a few numbers safe for casual consumption and analysis. Let us not see these numbers as scripture that must be followed; rather, as trends that should be carefully observed. Today we’ll focus on plate discipline stats, as they tend to indicate a change in performance quicker than other numbers.

Pablo López’s Sweeper Has Been Elite So Far 
One of the fascinating developments of 2023 baseball has been the integration of the term “sweeper” into our shared lexicon. First placed forth into the public sphere by Eno Sarris in 2021, the pitch behaves similar to a slider, but eases off the velocity a touch, and darts to the glove side as if a magnet were coaxing the ball off the plate. Hitters expect the ball to drop more than it actually does, and the sweeper subsequently finds the very tops of bats, and then the fielders glove—in precisely that order. It’s nasty.

And it’s effective. Pitchers from all walks of life have adopted it to great success, and Pablo López’s version of the pitch has proven absurd. 

With one allowed hit, López has offered batters 60 chances to do damage on it, and has fooled almost all of them, earning a .118 xwOBA and the highest swinging strike rate on sweepers in all of MLB. Already used 22.1% of the time, López dispatches the pitch strictly against righties, instead relying on his trusty fastball/changeup/curveball mix against opposite-side hitters. While lefties have given him some trouble in his first three starts (12.5 K-BB%), righties shouldn’t even bother heading to the plate (38.3 K-BB%)

Ted Schwerzler covered López the other day, and our own Lucas Seehafer did so as well over at Baseball Prospectus, if you must consume more regarding the pitch. Curiously, as Seehafer notes, the pitches’ pure movement is mediocre, far below some of the nastier offerings supplied by the finest spin masters currently pitching. The simple existence of an extra average pitch—one more guess a hitter must eliminate—partly fuels its success; but Lopez’s unique extension and its newness likely also helps confound hitters. It’s hard to hit something you have context for, after all. 

Trevor Larnach’s Plate Discipline 
I have long been fascinated with Trevor Larnach. Since his days bopping on some very good Oregon State squads, the corner outfielder found a way to stand out, producing excellent exit velocities with immense raw power. Minnesota was the perfect landing place for him.

It’s been a mixed bag since, though, as Larnach breezed through the minors like a junior in a 100-level class, but ran into injuries and slight troubles with major-league stuff. Despite a solid slash line to start his season, nothing under the hood appears different: he’s swinging at pitches outside the zone at almost exactly the same rate as before (23.5% to 25.1% career) while his other swing decisions remain similarly unmoved. He’s making contact with pitches outside the zone more, but I’m not sure that’s a good thing; those tend to not end up as well-hit balls, after all. 

To my eyes, this is largely the same player we’ve seen over the last two seasons: a batter inconsistent in tapping into his massive power potential, still swinging at a few too many poor pitches to make an impact. But, this is still April; Larnach has time to make the necessary adjustments and, before a dreadful performance in the White Sox series, he claimed some of the best discipline in all of MLB. It's clear, though, that his early swoon was BABIP-fueled, and a separate change must come for Larnach to officially claim "breakout" status.

Emmanuel Rodriguez Crushes

Just look at these:

Those are two homers to dead center off of lefties. That doesn't happen everyday. We've poured plenty of hype into Rodriguez, but we might still be underrating just how utterly game-changing his power could be. Just please, keep him healthy.

All stats are updated following play on April 13th.

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[Riverbrian]

I'm thinkin a road trip to Cedar Rapids might be necessary before the kid is moved to Wichita.

[dxpavelka]

The Pagan silence is deafening........

[Doctor Gast]

The addition of P. Lopez & Vazquez has done wonders for our rotation, as was expected. Larnach still has some adjusting to do. And E Rod is being E Rod, he can hit.

There's a lot of thoughts that could be had pertaining to the rotation, BP, catching, prospects etc. 

[High heat]

With all the off-season to many outfielders need to trade one!! 
 

it took till April 14 to see an outfield of Taylor Garlick and Willie Castro!!!

Now Taylor has been great this far!  Castro has been good and Garlick has always been able to mash lefties and if he only played against them he is great!  

[mikelink45]

My question would be - why hasn't Garlick been claimed by other teams.  We have made him available at times if I understand the various moves we have made with him.  He does what is asked and I would think another team would have snatched him from us.  

[ashbury]

33 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

My question would be - why hasn't Garlick been claimed by other teams.  We have made him available at times if I understand the various moves we have made with him.  He does what is asked and I would think another team would have snatched him from us.  

Being that his defense is not well-regarded, and his only way of being useful is as the short end of a lefty-righty platoon, it's probable that other teams feel like they have someone like him already.

You know the saying of 5-tool players, "he can beat you in so many ways."  Kyle Garlick can beat the other team in exactly one way, namely if a lefty is pitching when he comes to bat and the opposing manager doesn't make a pitching change to counter him.  That isn't nothing, and maybe someone does claim him next time he's made available, but it's not such a unique skill that he has trade value.  You DFA him, and hope he passes through waivers yet again, hoping also that he's happy enough that he doesn't elect to void his contract.

I just checked, and Kyle seems to have a minor league option remaining.  That does increase his value by a little bit, I suppose, if he's our 41st best player and some bottom feeder would see him as maybe their 37th best.

(As always, but it bears repeating every so often: "IMO".)

[danielp19653]

28 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

My question would be - why hasn't Garlick been claimed by other teams.  We have made him available at times if I understand the various moves we have made with him.  He does what is asked and I would think another team would have snatched him from us.  

I just don't think there are many teams willing to take him as that fifth outfielder who only hits lefties and plays below average defense. You don't play lefties all that often and if his defense doesn't make him serviceable for stretches when someone goes down he's hard to justify a roster spot for. 

[joefish]

I think Kirilloff has more to offer than Larnach.  I hope he comes back healthy. I do so hope that for him.

[jkcarew]

Two things on Rodriguez…

one, yes, let’s keep him healthy

two, he is having massive issues with strike outs early in the season…14 K in his first 30 PA. Let’s see him get a handle on that before we anoint him.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The Pagan silence is deafening........

Sure is - scared to comment here. BIG detractor for past 10 months………1-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Nuff said!

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Two things on Rodriguez…

one, yes, let’s keep him healthy

two, he is having massive issues with strike outs early in the season…14 K in his first 30 PA. Let’s see him get a handle on that before we anoint him.

That’s Gallo like  - gotta be under 30% to have a chance to be a real star.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, danielp19653 said:

I just don't think there are many teams willing to take him as that fifth outfielder who only hits lefties and plays below average defense. You don't play lefties all that often and if his defense doesn't make him serviceable for stretches when someone goes down he's hard to justify a roster spot for. 

Assuming he’d be an edge outfielder in any organization’s 26 man roster & there’s no flexibility with him  …….not the type you have with young guys with options. Other clubs that aren’t competitive might as well cultivate younger guys. We NEED him to fill a hole at times - at least he’s our lowest risk, best upside option at times. Assuming we are focused on winning every possible game v. developing guys for performance 1-2 years from now.

[JD-TWINS]

The lack of scouting on López’ sweeper 3 games into the season (as you stated) is a big advantage that will quickly go away. Him having a 4th pitch will remain a bonus! If it isn’t sharp and just surprising guys now, that might not play long-term.

New schedule and spreading out & adding opponents will help pitchers because teams will only see them once or twice. Division foes maybe 3-4 times. An advantage v. history.

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Assuming he’d be an edge outfielder in any organization’s 26 man roster & there’s no flexibility with him  …….not the type you have with young guys with options. Other clubs that aren’t competitive might as well cultivate younger guys. We NEED him to fill a hole at times - at least he’s our lowest risk, best upside option at times. Assuming we are focused on winning every possible game v. developing guys for performance 1-2 years from now.

Garlick 2022

The only thing that keeps Larnach here over Garlick is Larnach is a better fielder.

Larnach's numbers last year were not really any better than Garlick's

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, RpR said:

Garlick 2022

The only thing that keeps Larnach here over Garlick is Larnach is a better fielder.

Larnach's numbers last year were not really any better than Garlick's

Better OF. ……I assume youth?

Larnach playing hurt while trying to stay up last year - apparently they have talked to him about that & that’s why he was shutdown in Spring Training with the “lower body” injury.

Also, we face RH pitching nearly 80% of the time. That’s a big factor.

[danielp19653]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Better OF. ……I assume youth?

Larnach playing hurt while trying to stay up last year - apparently they have talked to him about that & that’s why he was shutdown in Spring Training with the “lower body” injury.

Also, we face RH pitching nearly 80% of the time. That’s a big factor.

I guess this was more my point earlier not that I think Garlick is a bad player or shouldn't be on the Twins roster with the injuries that have happened. he absolutely has a role. But he's also not young and everyone knows what he is. There's no reason for another team to take the claim if they have any outfield options to give some reps too. Right handed pitching is far more common and there's a reason the Twins try really hard not to let him hit against righties.

[mikelink45]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

Being that his defense is not well-regarded, and his only way of being useful is as the short end of a lefty-righty platoon, it's probable that other teams feel like they have someone like him already.

You know the saying of 5-tool players, "he can beat you in so many ways."  Kyle Garlick can beat the other team in exactly one way, namely if a lefty is pitching when he comes to bat and the opposing manager doesn't make a pitching change to counter him.  That isn't nothing, and maybe someone does claim him next time he's made available, but it's not such a unique skill that he has trade value.  You DFA him, and hope he passes through waivers yet again, hoping also that he's happy enough that he doesn't elect to void his contract.

I just checked, and Kyle seems to have a minor league option remaining.  That does increase his value by a little bit, I suppose, if he's our 41st best player and some bottom feeder would see him as maybe their 37th best.

(As always, but it bears repeating every so often: "IMO".)

No one else wants him, but we do year after year! 

[dxpavelka]

On 4/15/2023 at 2:26 AM, Aerodeliria said:

Another big plus has been Buxton's patience at the plate over the last two games. Those walks have been critically important!

 

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Sure is - scared to comment here. BIG detractor for past 10 months………1-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Nuff said!

As bad as he was (or seemed last year) there have been a LOT of years when this team would have killed for relievers with a 4.43 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 63 innings.

[DJL44]

When do they start talking about a contract extension with Pablo Lopez?

[Squirrel]

On 4/15/2023 at 7:55 AM, Riverbrian said:

I'm thinkin a road trip to Cedar Rapids might be necessary before the kid is moved to Wichita.

You know, if you planned it right, you could road-trip to Cedar Rapids, catch his last game there, then continue onto Wichita and catch him there. And you could write about it and call it ‘Confessions of a Hit and Run Tourist - Day Nineteen’.

[Squirrel]

11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

No one else wants him, but we do year after year! 

Well, his homerun the other night was useful, but would rather not have a need for him on the 26-man

[mikelink45]

8 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Well, his homerun the other night was useful, but would rather not have a need for him on the 26-man

I know, but I think he is ours for the foreseeable future.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I know, but I think he is ours for the foreseeable future.

Yeah, I think he will stay until all those with options are sent down first and/or someone gets traded or jettisoned.

[RpR]

11 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Well, his homerun the other night was useful, but would rather not have a need for him on the 26-man

Unless Julien, Larnach and Miranda suddenly get a lot better he will stay when the hurt boys come back.

Julien is going back to the Saints.

Most of the bruhaha about Kiriloff is wishful thinking at this point so this team may change little from what it is now.

With the current team strike out rate, Gordon is safe for now.

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, Squirrel said:

You know, if you planned it right, you could road-trip to Cedar Rapids, catch his last game there, then continue onto Wichita and catch him there. And you could write about it and call it ‘Confessions of a Hit and Run Tourist - Day Nineteen’.

Day Nineteen:

I've never seen so much corn. 

[dxpavelka]

On 4/15/2023 at 8:49 AM, Doctor Gast said:

The addition of P. Lopez & Vazquez has done wonders for our rotation, as was expected. Larnach still has some adjusting to do. And E Rod is being E Rod, he can hit.

There's a lot of thoughts that could be had pertaining to the rotation, BP, catching, prospects etc. 

The thoughts need to be on how to score more runs.  On pace for 638 runs which won't cut it.