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Last week, Ben Clemens of Fangraphs kicked off a “Five Things I Liked (and Didn’t Like) This Week” series where, in a nod to Zach Lowe’s “10 Things” series for the NBA, he writes on a handful of topics—mainly stats—that may not merit their own piece, but should be noted in some fashion. I am not above thievery, so this article will mark the first of my own “Things” series looking at a few undergoings in the Twins system that are interesting, but not capable of carrying an extended essay. Some weeks may see five topics, but I'll decided to let the game move me as it does, so the number of points will vary. Let’s begin.
Now, while you, the good baseball fan, should abstain from traditional statistical practice until at least June, there are a few numbers safe for casual consumption and analysis. Let us not see these numbers as scripture that must be followed; rather, as trends that should be carefully observed. Today we’ll focus on plate discipline stats, as they tend to indicate a change in performance quicker than other numbers.
Pablo López’s Sweeper Has Been Elite So Far
One of the fascinating developments of 2023 baseball has been the integration of the term “sweeper” into our shared lexicon. First placed forth into the public sphere by Eno Sarris in 2021, the pitch behaves similar to a slider, but eases off the velocity a touch, and darts to the glove side as if a magnet were coaxing the ball off the plate. Hitters expect the ball to drop more than it actually does, and the sweeper subsequently finds the very tops of bats, and then the fielders glove—in precisely that order. It’s nasty.
And it’s effective. Pitchers from all walks of life have adopted it to great success, and Pablo López’s version of the pitch has proven absurd.
With one allowed hit, López has offered batters 60 chances to do damage on it, and has fooled almost all of them, earning a .118 xwOBA and the highest swinging strike rate on sweepers in all of MLB. Already used 22.1% of the time, López dispatches the pitch strictly against righties, instead relying on his trusty fastball/changeup/curveball mix against opposite-side hitters. While lefties have given him some trouble in his first three starts (12.5 K-BB%), righties shouldn’t even bother heading to the plate (38.3 K-BB%)
Ted Schwerzler covered López the other day, and our own Lucas Seehafer did so as well over at Baseball Prospectus, if you must consume more regarding the pitch. Curiously, as Seehafer notes, the pitches’ pure movement is mediocre, far below some of the nastier offerings supplied by the finest spin masters currently pitching. The simple existence of an extra average pitch—one more guess a hitter must eliminate—partly fuels its success; but Lopez’s unique extension and its newness likely also helps confound hitters. It’s hard to hit something you have context for, after all.
Trevor Larnach’s Plate Discipline
I have long been fascinated with Trevor Larnach. Since his days bopping on some very good Oregon State squads, the corner outfielder found a way to stand out, producing excellent exit velocities with immense raw power. Minnesota was the perfect landing place for him.
It’s been a mixed bag since, though, as Larnach breezed through the minors like a junior in a 100-level class, but ran into injuries and slight troubles with major-league stuff. Despite a solid slash line to start his season, nothing under the hood appears different: he’s swinging at pitches outside the zone at almost exactly the same rate as before (23.5% to 25.1% career) while his other swing decisions remain similarly unmoved. He’s making contact with pitches outside the zone more, but I’m not sure that’s a good thing; those tend to not end up as well-hit balls, after all.
To my eyes, this is largely the same player we’ve seen over the last two seasons: a batter inconsistent in tapping into his massive power potential, still swinging at a few too many poor pitches to make an impact. But, this is still April; Larnach has time to make the necessary adjustments and, before a dreadful performance in the White Sox series, he claimed some of the best discipline in all of MLB. It's clear, though, that his early swoon was BABIP-fueled, and a separate change must come for Larnach to officially claim "breakout" status.
Emmanuel Rodriguez Crushes
Just look at these:
Those are two homers to dead center off of lefties. That doesn't happen everyday. We've poured plenty of hype into Rodriguez, but we might still be underrating just how utterly game-changing his power could be. Just please, keep him healthy.
All stats are updated following play on April 13th.
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