5 years later, is Alcala the Pressly replacement, yet?

[h2oface]

Almost 5 years later, how close is Jorge Alcala to becoming the replacement for Ryan Pressly? That certainly was the goal of the trade. Yes, Gilberto Celestino was thrown in, and has provided less than replacement value forced replacement in the outfield when forced to (the force is with him), but the pitch was Alcala could become at least what Ryan Pressly was at the time (not even considering what he has become). Pressly was 29 at the time, and Alcala will be 28 in July, 5 years after the trade. Was the 5 years of pitching return worth it? Considering what Pressly has become, can Alcala ever be what Pressly could have supplied? Can Alcala equal or surpass that? Sure, it costs $ to retain your players, and Pressly would have had to be resigned. Or even if Alcala starts to, will the Twins keep him or trade him for another 5 to 6 year development project?

[ashbury]

He doesn't turn 28 until July.  Give him time.

[GKuehl]

We still have Alcala under team control at pretty modest amounts (he's making less than $800k this year) for 2 years after this season. All in all, the trade was a win-win. We were unlikely to re-sign Pressley and we received back a middle reliver who still has quite a bit of upside to tap into.  

[KirbyDome89]

Can Alcala reach Pressly's value over the last 5 years before he hits FA? That's a near impossibility.

Can he, at any point, hit the peak that Pressly has? That's unlikely. 

It was a questionable move at the time, and it has aged poorly. 

[KirbyDome89]

20 minutes ago, GKuehl said:

We still have Alcala under team control at pretty modest amounts (he's making less than $800k this year) for 2 years after this season. All in all, the trade was a win-win. We were unlikely to re-sign Pressley and we received back a middle reliver who still has quite a bit of upside to tap into.  

It couldn't be further from a win-win at the moment. 

[Craig Arko]

I’m still waiting for Dave Engle, Paul Hartzell, Brad Havens and Ken Landreaux to replace Rod Carew.

[Dman]

I guess the thing we would need to know is if the Twins and Pressly were willing to do a deal for more years.  It seems unlikely since this Twins FO hasn't been big believers in high priced relief arms.  If they were just going to lose him in Free Agency then better to get something versus nothing. Pressly wasn't going to help the bad team we had in 2018 and he was injured in 2019 so keeping him for those two years wasn't going to move the needle much.

If they were going to extend him then it is a tougher call.  Alcala looked pretty good in 2020 with 2.63. ERA.  Not elite in 2021 but but a solid 3.92 ERA.  Pressly has pretty much been elite since moving to Houston but would he be the same pitcher if he had stayed with the Twins?  Hard to say as he improved dramatically when he moved to Houston. Also it took Pressly about 4 years to become dominant out of the pen.  Alcala is on year three and since he missed all of last year behind in the experience department.

Now that I have hindsight yes I would rather they had kept and extended Pressly as they have needed elite bullpen help since he left.  His ability to close out games would have been nice to have.  While Alcala doesn't look like he will make it to Pressly's level he still could be close enough and be here long enough to make it a worthwhile trade but will just have to wait and see how he does but he is going to have to perform really well to get there.

There are just too many unknown variables to calculate to say anything for certain but all things being equal sure they would have been better off to hang onto Pressly and yet I don't think they were going to and that is why they traded him.

[Rosterman]

Alcala has the stuff to be a closer, although not necessary now that the Twins have Duran. If he can get into the closer head game, he will be a plus addition for the Twins, depending on how much they wish to pay hium. Or, a very nice trade chip, like Ryan.

Celestino was advanced too soon, and needed to play at AAA last season to develop further, but was rushed back to the Twins. A nice season at St. Paul would raise his stock, either as the "Taylor" for next season that the Twins will need, or as a trade chip.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Can Alcala reach Pressly's value over the last 5 years before he hits FA? That's a near impossibility.

Can he, at any point, hit the peak that Pressly has? That's unlikely. 

It was a questionable move at the time, and it has aged poorly. 

To judge the trade you can only count Pressly's end of 2018, 2019, and 2020. You don't get to count his performance for years that Houston extended him. The reason the Twins traded him was because they weren't going to extend him. Thus they'd only have him through his arbitration years which ended in 2020.

So that's just over 2 WAR if you believe in that kind of thing. Alcala is at 1 already in his career. He needs to accumulate 1.3 more to surpass what they would've gotten from Pressly. He has through 2025 to do that. Seems awfully doable.

Not being willing to extend Pressly is a different complaint than "grading" the trade itself, or comparing the value of their Pressly controllable years vs their Alcala controllable years.

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

To judge the trade you can only count Pressly's end of 2018, 2019, and 2020. You don't get to count his performance for years that Houston extended him. The reason the Twins traded him was because they weren't going to extend him. Thus they'd only have him through his arbitration years which ended in 2020.

So that's just over 2 WAR if you believe in that kind of thing. Alcala is at 1 already in his career. He needs to accumulate 1.3 more to surpass what they would've gotten from Pressly. He has through 2025 to do that. Seems awfully doable.

Not being willing to extend Pressly is a different complaint than "grading" the trade itself, or comparing the value of their Pressly controllable years vs their Alcala controllable years.

I think it's fair to only grade the years that would have been under team control, just because you never know how free agency and contracts might end up going. I'm not a huge fan of WAR for relievers; they just don't pitch enough for it to be the best metric, IMHO.

WPA might be a better measure; Alcala is at a net 0.4 WPA as a Twin, Pressly racked up 2.6 WPA during those team-controlled years. As the more experienced pitcher, Pressly has done better.

It's not a bad trade, maybe a bit of an unlucky one. Alcala is very talented, but missed a year for injury. celestino is talented but the injury bug had him rushed to MLB before he was ready and it's screwed up his development (as did missing out on a minor league season in 2020). All factors outside of team control. Pressly would have looked great in the bullpen for the Bomba Squad, but the bullpen wasn't really the problem with that team: it was starting pitching not being good enough with perez & gibson not getting the job done and Pineda having to serve a suspension. It was the bats going silent (after carrying the team all year) in the playoffs.

And I'd rather pay $14M to Nelson Cruz than Ryan Pressly...

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think it's fair to only grade the years that would have been under team control, just because you never know how free agency and contracts might end up going. I'm not a huge fan of WAR for relievers; they just don't pitch enough for it to be the best metric, IMHO.

WPA might be a better measure; Alcala is at a net 0.4 WPA as a Twin, Pressly racked up 2.6 WPA during those team-controlled years. As the more experienced pitcher, Pressly has done better.

It's not a bad trade, maybe a bit of an unlucky one. Alcala is very talented, but missed a year for injury. celestino is talented but the injury bug had him rushed to MLB before he was ready and it's screwed up his development (as did missing out on a minor league season in 2020). All factors outside of team control. Pressly would have looked great in the bullpen for the Bomba Squad, but the bullpen wasn't really the problem with that team: it was starting pitching not being good enough with perez & gibson not getting the job done and Pineda having to serve a suspension. It was the bats going silent (after carrying the team all year) in the playoffs.

And I'd rather pay $14M to Nelson Cruz than Ryan Pressly...

Yeah, I don't like WAR for relievers either, but it was the stat I had readily available so just used it.

[KirbyDome89]

35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

To judge the trade you can only count Pressly's end of 2018, 2019, and 2020. You don't get to count his performance for years that Houston extended him. The reason the Twins traded him was because they weren't going to extend him. Thus they'd only have him through his arbitration years which ended in 2020.

So that's just over 2 WAR if you believe in that kind of thing. Alcala is at 1 already in his career. He needs to accumulate 1.3 more to surpass what they would've gotten from Pressly. He has through 2025 to do that. Seems awfully doable.

Not being willing to extend Pressly is a different complaint than "grading" the trade itself, or comparing the value of their Pressly controllable years vs their Alcala controllable years.

Yeah I'm not sure how applicable WAR is in this case. Idk if we need to think too hard on this one. Houston got 2.5 years of an elite, high leverage arm. Acala is 28 and we're still talking about "potential." 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah I'm not sure how applicable WAR is in this case. Idk if we need to think too hard on this one. Houston got 2.5 years of an elite, high leverage arm. Acala is 28 and we're still talking about "potential." 

Yeah, WAR isn't great here, but it's the page I was looking at so just ran with it.

We were still talking about "potential" with Pressly at 28, as well. He had an ERA of 4.70 in 61.1 innings and "only" 61 Ks in those innings. At the age of 29 he had a 2.54 ERA and 101 Ks in 71 innings. I'm not predicting Alcala becomes Pressly or anything, but there's still a very real chance Alcala can provide as much value in his time with the Twins as Pressly did in his first 2.5 years with Houston. Now it's not great to need the extra years to achieve that, but that's pretty typical of trades. You're looking for more years of value over having the immediate production. Win-win is still very much a possibility here, and it's been disappointing, but not disastrous to this point.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

And the unknowable question is whether Pressly reaches his same peak with the Twins pitching staff.....Houston seems to bring out the best in pitchers.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

I’m still waiting for Dave Engle, Paul Hartzell, Brad Havens and Ken Landreaux to replace Rod Carew.

I'm still holding my breath waiting for Jared Camp to make us regret acquiring Johan Santana.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins traded team control of Pressly for the remainder of the lost 2018 and the 2019 season where they ended up spending resources on relievers like Parker, Romo and Dyson.

Keeping Pressly would have given them an elite reliever and allowed them to allocate those resources to other areas of need. His loss hurt.

They need that great season from Alcala or Celestino to call it an even trade. They do not need to match anything beyond those years of control. It really just that one season and the bar is a high one.

[stringer bell]

Not fair to consider Alcala as he is for what Pressly has become. We don't know if Pressly ever would have become what he is if he had stayed with the Twins. The Astros were able to maximize Pressly, while he wasn't quite there with the Twins. Alcala is a middle reliever at age 27, with enough stuff to do more. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, WAR isn't great here, but it's the page I was looking at so just ran with it.

We were still talking about "potential" with Pressly at 28, as well. He had an ERA of 4.70 in 61.1 innings and "only" 61 Ks in those innings. At the age of 29 he had a 2.54 ERA and 101 Ks in 71 innings. I'm not predicting Alcala becomes Pressly or anything, but there's still a very real chance Alcala can provide as much value in his time with the Twins as Pressly did in his first 2.5 years with Houston. Now it's not great to need the extra years to achieve that, but that's pretty typical of trades. You're looking for more years of value over having the immediate production. Win-win is still very much a possibility here, and it's been disappointing, but not disastrous to this point.

Pressly also had 3x more career innings at that point, so even if the Twins were waiting on fulfilled potential there was a solid floor, but we're talking about where this stands today no? Right now it's nowhere near a win-win. Like I said above, the odds that Alcala becomes Pressly, or anything close, are slim. If we sit down in 3 years and tally up WAR ok, but that's not the same kind of value. 

[DocBauer]

I've never liked the mantra that Houston turned Pressly in to something the Twins couldn't/didn't. He wax pretty good with the Twins and certainly flashed. He might have been just as good with the Twins, and who knows about a re-sign possibility. 

I didn't like the trade at the time as I thought the Twins were not as bad as they looked that season and would be better going forward. And they were. Pressly would have been a nice bullpen piece. 

All that being said, do we really have to view Alcala as a direct replacement/comparison? These things are always fluid. While acquired in a different deal, isn't Duran really the "replacement" for Pressly in this scenario? So at this point, shouldn't Alcala be viewed individually as a potentially valuable bullpen piece unto himself? He's certainly got the stuff and has flashed enough to show he has the potential to be a major part of tne pen for the next few years. Celestino still has a chance to be a really nice 4th OF who might even be a good trade piece to another team if his 2023 allows him to relax, work on his game, and start to reach his potential. 

It's always hard to evaluate trades, even a few years later. Even if Alcala becomes a top set up man and Celestino brings good value to the Twins, would they have been better keeping Pressly and maybe/hopefully re-signing him? The easy answer is YES, and they shouldn't have made the trade. But I just don't know if it's that easy. How valuable might Alcala and Celestino be over the next couple of years? And if Pressly is hurt, or fades, does that change the complextion of the deal? 

I didn't like the trade and even today I don't think I would have made it. But I don't think there is an easy answer until we see how much "value" comes from Alcala and Celestino over the next few years. I don't know if there is a "win" for either side ultimately. But I don't think the book is finished yet.

[Danchat]

Alcala is OK, he was a dumpster fire for most of 2021 but had a superb September that obscured his rough season, so 2020 was his only quality season.

Celestino had a graduation year of 2021 IIRC, and I poised the thought that it was more likely he wouldn't be ready until 2023-24. And here we are, he's still not ready and doesn't profile to be any more than a 4th OF. He did hit over .300 for a couple months last year which was nice, but he completely cratered the rest of the year.

It's clearly a bad trade, but the real reason why had more to do with the Twins failing to maximize Pressly and the Astros immediately flipping the switch and turning him into one of the best relievers in baseball. It wasn't a Liam Hendriks situation, it was near-instant. That makes the trade a total loss, seeing as how he was integral to multiple playoff runs and a title to boot.

[bird]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins traded team control of Pressly for the remainder of the lost 2018 and the 2019 season where they ended up spending resources on relievers like Parker, Romo and Dyson.

Keeping Pressly would have given them an elite reliever and allowed them to allocate those resources to other areas of need. His loss hurt.

They need that great season from Alcala or Celestino to call it an even trade. They do not need to match anything beyond those years of control. It really just that one season and the bar is a high one.

I think thios is a better way of judging the decision than trying to extrapolate a bunch of performance stuff which is in the control of someone other than the front office, like covid, and injuries.

I didn't like the trade because it violated one of my most strongly-held beliefs. If you don't have redundancy at the MLB level, if you don't have a replacement who projects to be almost immediately an upgrade over the guy you want to move, then you shouldn't be weakening the team further in the short term, which is what they did.

And if you DO have excess at a position, take advantage of two things: 1) trade them for minor league talent. Why? Because that talent comes at a massive discount due to uncertainty and timeline, like 50%. So, Often a trade like that gets you twice the bang for the buck over time; and 2) deadline trades give you an opportunity to fetch on overpay frome a team desperate to stay in the hunt, whereas you already have an equal or better option at that position.

[h2oface]

On 4/11/2023 at 8:59 PM, bird said:

I think thios is a better way of judging the decision than trying to extrapolate a bunch of performance stuff which is in the control of someone other than the front office, like covid, and injuries.

I didn't like the trade because it violated one of my most strongly-held beliefs. If you don't have redundancy at the MLB level, if you don't have a replacement who projects to be almost immediately an upgrade over the guy you want to move, then you shouldn't be weakening the team further in the short term, which is what they did.

And if you DO have excess at a position, take advantage of two things: 1) trade them for minor league talent. Why? Because that talent comes at a massive discount due to uncertainty and timeline, like 50%. So, often a trade like that gets you twice the bang for the buck over time; and 2) deadline trades give you an opportunity to fetch on overpay frome a team desperate to stay in the hunt, whereas you already have an equal or better option at that position.

Well said. Morneau talked about a trade today on air while Lopez was pitching. Eaton from the White Sox to the Nats in 2016 for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning. You can use all the WAR and whatever you want to debate that the White Sox won that trade, but Morneau's winner was the Nationals, as Eaton was a key player in a World Series Championship. Have the White Sox won a Series yet with the players they traded for? Nope. And a WSC is what the game is played for.

I agree. Your discussion is a winner too. 

Plus, for me, if you have to wait so long for the value to start showing or happening even if it finally does, it is still a loser. And it never counts when you trade that guy for that guy for that guy, imo. 

[Doctor Wu]

If he stays healthy I think Alcala will end up being a very good relief pitcher, although I doubt he'll ever reach the all-star level of Pressly, and I don't think that was ever the expectation. If memory serves me well (and hey, you know that goes!) we were trading Pressly because it looked like we weren't going anywhere at that point in the season, and it appeared that he might be hard to re-sign. We got two pretty good prospects in the deal, so I wasn't bothered by the trade. Of course Pressly proceeded to look like a Hall of Fame relief pitcher the next couple of years, so they left us all wondering: "what if ..?" But as some have pointed out, Alcala is just getting back in the groove again after being injured, so give him some time. No, it's doubtful he will ever by the ace closer that Pressly became, but he may still be a valuable bullpen piece for us. 

[weitz41]

I don't really care for these what if scenarios.

The plus: we now have two players on the 40 man for a rule 5 pick up.

The minus: Did we miss a chance for even better seasons with him?

Would the Twins have a trophy or two if they kept him. I don't think so..Those teams were flawed to where an elite BP arm wouldn't have changed the outcome all that much. Plus, all things being equal. Who are you subtracting from those teams (since the trade} if the Twins extended/resigned him? Cruz? Buxton? Maybe Correa? That money would probably come at the expense of one of those players.

Did I like this trade at the time? No not really. Do I like it now? Meh not really.

I prefer the team we have this season over most of them since that trade. 

To me both teams won. Astro got a title with him, and we have a better all-around team 5 seasons after the trade.

[tangopudding]

A bit early for the postmortem, people. 

[Brandon]

Comparing the 2 pitchers I would say Alcala matches up nicely compared to Pressley.  Pressley had his 2nd and 3rd season with he Twins he had a 2.93 and 2.86 ERA in 25 and 27 games (note these numbers are not in order) compare that to Alcala 2020 season of 16 games and 2.63 ERA.  

Pressley's 1rst and 4th seasons with the Twins were 3.87 and 3.70 ERA.  in 49 and 72 games.  compared to Alcala 2021 season of 3.92 ERA in 59 games.  

These seasons seem similar to me.  Now Alcala was hurt last year and Pressley was not so I guess you can penalize Alcala for a work injury.  But Alcala has 3 seasons left including this one and is off to a pretty good start with a 0.00 ERA in 5.2 innings.  

I think this trade was a win for the Twins and if Celestino can turn into a solid 4th OF even better.  I feel like Celestino at least was able to play solid defense in CF.