Trevor Megill Should Be Used in More High Leverage Spots

[Andrew Mahlke]

It is no secret that the Twins' bullpen options are not all trustworthy, as we saw Sunday and Tuesday with Tyler Duffey. Could Trevor Megill be one reliever that the Twins could use in bigger situations and become more comfortable using?

The Twins’ bullpen has been better than average this year. As a collective unit, they rank seventh in MLB in bullpen WPA with 1.55 wins added. However, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Joe Smith have combined for 3.06 wins added. The rest of the Twins’ bullpen has been worth -1.51 wins. This is primarily due to Tyler Duffey, who has a WPA of -1.32, which is fifth-worst among all major league relievers in 2022. In the major leagues, you can’t just throw the same three bullpen arms every night, so the Twins need to find another bullpen arm that they could use in high leverage situations. Enter Trevor Megill.

Megill, who the Twins signed on a minor league deal right before the lockout, has been good in limited innings this year in the bullpen. In ten and ⅔ innings, Megill has only allowed three earned runs on eight hits and four walks. He has struck out 13 hitters, seven with the fastball and six with the curveball. Megill has some of the best stuff on the Twins, and there is data to back that up.

Megill’s fastball averages 97.1 miles per hour, which places him in the 95th percentile of all major league pitchers. His fastball also has incredible spin, as his fastball spin rate is 2424 revolutions per minute, which places him in the 91st percentile of all pitchers. Using Pitch Profiler, a tool created by Jeremy Maschino, you can view any major league pitcher and various statistics about their pitch mix.

One important metric that many people are starting to use to evaluate a pitcher’s repertoire is Stuff+. Stuff+ gives a pitcher a rating of how good a pitcher’s repertoire is compared to the rest of the league. This rating is based on a variety of things such as pitch velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, arm angle, and release extension. Megill has a Stuff+ rating of 108, putting him in the 78th percentile of all major league pitchers. The average Stuff+ rating is 100, which means Megill’s stuff is eight percent better than the league average. Using Maschino’s tool, Megill’s stuff+ rating on his fastball is 108, meaning he has an above league average fastball in terms of velocity and movement.

Megill’s curveball is also an outstanding pitch. According to Baseball Savant, Megill’s curveball has seven more inches of vertical movement than the league average curveball does, good for tenth among all major league pitchers who have thrown at least 50 curveballs. According to Pitch Profiler, Megill’s curveball has a 107 stuff+ rating, which means he has two pitches above league average.

A pitcher’s stuff can only take him so far. A pitcher can have good stuff and fail to get outs. Take former Twin Brusdar Graterol, who has a stuff+ rating of 116, in the 95th percentile of all pitchers. His sinker is 99.9 miles per hour, second among all pitchers. However, this doesn’t lead to success, as Graterol has a 4.81 ERA and 3.84 FIP.

In Megill’s limited opportunities, he has allowed only three runs in ten and ⅔ innings for an ERA of 2.53, as I noted earlier. Sometimes a pitcher’s success in small samples can be due to luck, but not with Megill. This year, his expected ERA is 2.04, which is the fourteenth-best in the league among pitchers who have allowed at least 25 balls in play. On his fastball, Megill has allowed an expected opponent batting average of .153, which is the best on the Twins. On the curveball, he has allowed a minuscule expected batting average of .196. 

Between having well above league-average stuff and producing very well in the opportunities he has been given, Trevor Megill should be given more opportunities in high leverage situations here soon, especially as the Twins start to play a more challenging schedule.

What other relievers should be given big innings down the stretch? How do you feel about Trevor Megill? Leave a comment or any other questions you may have below, and feel free to start a discussion.

Thank you for reading, and Go Twins!

 

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[blindeke]

Yes please. He can have Duffey's spot.

[jorgenswest]

Should we be concerned about the average exit velocity? Should we be concerned about his performance last year?

[rwilfong86]

At this point anyone is more reliable than Duffey until they've proven otherwise.

[TwinsDr2021]

Anybody but Duffey, but prior to last night this guy has pitched in 5 games, three against Detroit and two against KC, not sure that taken for anything more than what it is.

[Doctor Gast]

Great article! This STUFF sounds pretty interesting. Hope they do give Megill a chance, waiting for Alcala to comeback and add to the back end of the BP. We really need some one who can come in especially in high leverage situations besides Duran that we can count on. Trading for some one could be a option also.

[2wins87]

Yeah sure probably.  I'd have a few others ahead of him but I think I missed a couple appearances when he looked his best so probably I'll need to watch him more closely.

My bullpen hierarchy right now would probably be:

1. Duran
2. Smith
3. Jax
4. Thielbar
5. Pagan
6. Moran
7. Megill
8. Cotton, or whoever else is filling out the bullpen
9. Duffey

Spots 5-7 are pretty interchangeable.

[a-wan]

Just make sure the games aren’t in Toronto.

[USAFChief]

I'm intrigued by Megill, was before this article. 

However...I'm not sure about any system that rates Joe Smith as having the best stuff of any Twins pitcher.

Also have trouble believing there are 7 Twins relievers at least 6 percent above average. 

Nope. 

[Linus]

Another guy with no control. Pass. 

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

Another guy with no control. Pass. 

I would say that command is the biggest problem. He's reduced his repertoire to the two pitches--fastball and curve--and they are both major league quality, but he has to throw more strikes in the right spots. Right now, I would say he is certainly worth a look. 

[DocBauer]

I watched him in ST a couple of times and really liked his stuff. His numbers in St Paul looked good. I've seen a couple of his Twins performances and thought he acquitted himself well. I quit watching the Yankees game last night after the Duffey meltdown so I didn't see him pitch, but the box numbers weren't good. But the stuff is there to give him a shot. 

Not sure what else Cotton has to do to get a longer look.

[bean5302]

I'm not super optimistic on Megill, but I don't see any reason he shouldn't get opportunities while he's getting results and other Twins relievers are struggling.

[twins_89]

Not a great time for the Twins bullpen with Stashak out for the year, Alcala having a setback, and Duffey/Thielbar struggling mightily. The team is going to need to find another pitcher or two that can provide some level of consistency in high leverage situations. Megill is probably next in line (mainly because there isn't anyone else).

[stringer bell]

14 hours ago, twins_89 said:

Not a great time for the Twins bullpen with Stashak out for the year, Alcala having a setback, and Duffey/Thielbar struggling mightily. The team is going to need to find another pitcher or two that can provide some level of consistency in high leverage situations. Megill is probably next in line (mainly because there isn't anyone else).

I think we need to consider Duffey and Thielbar separately. Duffey has been among the worst relief pitchers in baseball, Thielbar got off to a rocky start, but has righted the ship. Duffey’s FIP is 5.05, Thielbar is 3.65. 

[jorgenswest]

11 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think we need to consider Duffey and Thielbar separately. Duffey has been among the worst relief pitchers in baseball, Thielbar got off to a rocky start, but has righted the ship. Duffey’s FIP is 5.05, Thielbar is 3.65. 

ERA doesn’t do a very good job of projecting future performance but influences are perception significantly. A few other FIPs

Pagán 6.14

Bundy 4.61

Archer 4.94

FIP uses home run rate which does not stabilize early so xFIP might be better projectors as a guide to who the Twins should let go.

xFIP 

Duffey 2.88

Thielbar 4.08

Pagán 3.56

Bundy 4.01

Archer 5.07

I am unsure when xERA stabilizes

Duffey 6.71

Thielbar 3.07

Pagán 4.98

Bundy 3.82

Archer 5.52

Why are Duffey’s projectors all over the place? The sample is very small and highly influenced by a 41.7% HR/FB rate. It is highly unlikely that rate going forward will be near 41.7%. Last year it was 7.4% and the previous 5 years it was in the teens.