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Did Twins Trade Berrios at right time?


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The decision to trade Berrios last year at the deadline was a big talking point for Twins fans.  Some were upset he was traded at all thinking we needed to sign him, as he signed with Blue Jays.  He was still under team control for one more year and many fans wanted to wait until either this off-season, as odd as it ended up being, or sign the man long term.  He did sign extension with Blue Jays for 7 years and 131 million.  

Berrios is in his year 7th year and age 28 season.  The early results are not very good for him.  He has 7 games pitched, 34 innings 42 hits, 11 walks, 24 K's for an ERA+ of 63 and FIP of 5.15.  I am not saying he cannot turn this around.  He has always been an up and down pitcher, with June normally being his best month.  I have always argued he was never an ace, just the best we had.  I liked Berrios and felt he always had the possibility to be an ace, but never got over that hump.  

I do not wish him any ill will, but the early returns are not good for Berrios.  The Jays gave up to prospects, say what you will about Martin both prospects are expected to make major leagues in next year or two.  So far I think the trade timing was perfect as the FO rebuilt the rotation and is doing okay, a couple bad recent starts from a few people, but still better than what Berrios has been doing.  

Not only will the trade maybe look good, but when you combine the fact that if we would have given Berrios the contract he got we might be stuck with a subpar pitcher making good money for years to come.  Sure, Berrios may bounce back and be the top pitcher Jays thought he would be, but he may end up being on the down side of his career and become a very overpaid pitcher. 

So far the deal for the Twins sure looks like a win in who we got and when we made the trade.  I doubt we would have got better if we waited to off-season or during this season, based on what he is doing now. 

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Maybe he will get on track this year, maybe not. His advanced and peripheral numbers are not good so far this year. Exit velocity and barrel % against are at career high levels, which puts hard hit % also at a career high. Batters are also making more contact and swinging less at his pitches outside of the strike zone. They are also hitting the ball up the middle or to the opposite field at higher than normal rates against him. His K/9 and K/BB% are also way down. ,

On a positive note, his velocity and pitch movement are in line with his career numbers and BABIP is at a career high. His actual ERA is also below his xERA, so it is possible that he will turn things around.

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The question always was: Is Berros worth $100 million?

Sometimes, when you reward a player with a LARGE contract, you could backhandedly say some of that money is for past play. (Yeah, like they do that every day!)

There comes a time when you can't afford a pitcher. Kyle Gibson. Not worth HIS arbitration win, at least to Twins. Probably not worth what he signed with Texas, except in hindsight when you look at the money the Twins wasted on also ans.

Would you rather pay Shoemaker and Happ than Berros? Would you rather pay Archer and Bundy than Berrios? Would you like to tie up monies for Berrios, or look for soemthing applicable and short-term (Gray) and be satisfied with something (when healthy) that is equally as suitable (Paddack).

It all was money. From both ends. Berrios had visions of free agency. He knew what he wanted. Toronto offered. Twins kept nickel-and-diming.

Lookito sign.ng back, it IS a wonder the Twins got Buxton 

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18 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The question always was: Is Berros worth $100 million?

Sometimes, when you reward a player with a LARGE contract, you could backhandedly say some of that money is for past play. (Yeah, like they do that every day!)

There comes a time when you can't afford a pitcher. Kyle Gibson. Not worth HIS arbitration win, at least to Twins. Probably not worth what he signed with Texas, except in hindsight when you look at the money the Twins wasted on also ans.

Would you rather pay Shoemaker and Happ than Berros? Would you rather pay Archer and Bundy than Berrios? Would you like to tie up monies for Berrios, or look for soemthing applicable and short-term (Gray) and be satisfied with something (when healthy) that is equally as suitable (Paddack).

It all was money. From both ends. Berrios had visions of free agency. He knew what he wanted. Toronto offered. Twins kept nickel-and-diming.

Lookito sign.ng back, it IS a wonder the Twins got Buxton 

Looking at the Donaldson/Correa situation, I assume if the FO had extended Berrios to whatever that $100+M extension might have been, it would have come at the expense of not extending Buxton.

Agreed with others that we won’t be able to judge for years, but currently the pitching pipeline is starting to deliver and it hurts less (right now) and I’m really happy to have Buxton extended (right now).

TBD, but so far, so good.

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Me and my son watched his last spring training game against the Phillies and he didn't look right and didn't pitch well, that seems to have continued on into the season. Berrios is a pretty proud and tough guy maybe he isn't telling the Jays everything about his health. I wish the best of luck to him but even more to SWR and Martin.

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21 hours ago, Linus said:

At the end of the year Berrios will have his typical stats. Nobody will know anything about this trade for several years. 

That may be true, but then the other question is, is his typical numbers worth nearly 19 mil a year?  Also, with the expectation of drop off as he ages?  Berrios may very well bounce back by season end and have his 3.50 ERA, 9K per 9 and 2BB per 9, with a WHIP of 1.  However, as MNFireman point out, the numbers are not too suggestive of overall bad luck.  

My main point is not that Berrios is set to be a bad pitcher, but that we were not going to give him the deal he was seeking, I believe only HOF level pitchers ever live up to long term deals into their 30's.  The fact we traded during year last year did we make the right call doing it then versus waiting?  Right now his value would be at the lowest.  Maybe the guys we got do not pan out, maybe they both give us good MLB years.  

I hope for Berrios he does bounce back to what he was, but what he was still is not what Twins fans wanted him to be.  He only 1 time was in top 10 for Cy Young voting, last year at 9th.  

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5 hours ago, gman said:

Is Toronto a better hitters park than Minnesota? Are the Eastern Division teams better overall hitters than the Central? His current numbers might be reflective of what kind of pitcher he will be in Toronto.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing.  He is facing the Yankee's, Tampa and Boston more often now so his numbers might move some.  I still think he will be better than his current stats but I am not sure he will look quite as good in Toronto and he did in Minnesota unless he can adapt to the stiffer competition.

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I think our answer will depend on the results from the prospects we received. At face value, knowing we weren’t going to resign Berrios (he never had ace value), it was a good idea.  

I stand by the fact that he doesn’t have a clutch gene too. We need quality, not just consistent mediocrity. 

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If the choice the FO had to make was Buxton or Berrios, like the question posted here at the time suggested, then the Twins made the right decision.  I came down on the keep Buxton/trade Berrios decision because with all the "potential" Buxton had the Twins would never have gotten anything close to proper value for him.  As a result of his injury history, the Twins were able to sign Buck to a contract that rewards him, but protects the team to a certain degree.

I also think that with all the young pitchers getting closer and closer to the big leagues in the Twins system, and nobody even close to what Buxton was (as far as a future replacement) that again, the right decision to keep Buxton and trade Berrios was made.

Now it comes down to what we got for Berrios.  SWR is a great lottery ticket to replace Berrios pitcher for pitcher.  Martin, who was the centerpiece of the deal, could be an excellent part of an everyday lineup.  The FO did well on the trade at face value.

It's easy to Monday Morning QB this when Berrios is struggling, but I come down on this decision the same way even if Jose was pitching at an All-Star level.  The Twins got several seasons out of Berrios at "good" but not "great" or "Ace" level.  Rather than backing up a Brinks truck to pay him, they spun him off for young talent.  This is much like Cleveland doing the same with many of their pitchers (except for Bieber who won a CY Young, something Jose never did).  

I think this will be the M.O. of our FO in the future.  As Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Canterino, etc...develop and get better, some will stay, and some will be traded away before they get too expensive.  This is what I believe the Twins FO is trying to do by building that pipeline of home-grown pitchers.  

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I think the trade was the right decision at the right time when the trade was made. I still think that, but not because of the way Berrios is pitching right now, or the way our starting rotation has been so far this season, but because of the circumstances at the time of the trade. It didn't appear that they were going to re-sign him, for whatever reason that we don't know, the Twins were terrible, there was not going to be any playoff push, and we had pitchers we needed to see and evaluate. I like, and still like, the players we received in return. Players have up and down moments in their careers, even within a season, so I hope that Berrios bounces back. But, I still think it was the right thing to do at the right time and I'd make that trade every day of the week. As for who 'won' the trade ... well ... can't know that. And maybe we will come out on the losing end of it after all is said and done. But ... it was still the right trade to make at the right time and I'd still do it again given the circumstances at that time.

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The Berrios trade was a good trade for both sides. Each team got a lot of potential. As a Twins fan I will have adjust to these types of trades. There are three types of trades (1) future potential, (2) now valve (3) past value.  Two top prospects for 1 slightly above average player is a good trade.  Now the next question is who is more valuable to the Twins; Martin who can play outfield & maybe an infield position or Arraez who is limited on defense but an offensive table setter hitter. Then getting a pertty darn good pitcher who ranks in the Twins top 10 prospects. 
With all the prospects coming up and doing well. Arraez maybe extendible for a good relief or starting pitcher with shelf life of 2 years. Let’s play ball and have fun.

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