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Taylor Rogers


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I'm sure a lot of you have seen this already...Taylor Rogers just saved his 11th game last night for the Pads. He's converted 11 out of 12 save opportunities. Not too shabby. I still like the trade and would've done it, but that's pretty darn good. 

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If Taylor has a good year, and I hope he will, we can look toward offering him a contract, after the Twins win the World Series in October.  He may be so expensive that signing him will not be a good investment, or maybe it will be. I'm happy for him. He is a good guy. But the Twins stood a chance of losing him at the trading deadline if the Twinkies were tanking or losing him to Free Agency at the end of the year and getting a draft pick. Instead the Twins received a useful starter with upside plus a useful reliever and the SP has several years on his contract. It was a good trade in my book. 

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Good for Taylor, I hope he does well.

I still like the move for the Twins, Paddack should hopefully be here when the Twins are contending. Obviously Rogers would have helped the team this year, but saves are kind of a product of the team. The Twins have only had 7 save opportunities this year and three of them were multi-inning deals so at most Rogers would have had four saves had he stayed with the Twins.

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He is missed, and he is relaible, as he is showing in San Diego. But the Twins got a decent return with no guarantee that they could resign him (although they are eating his salary this season). 

I always considered him a better set-up choice than closer, but what do I really know?

On the plus side, he should get a BIG contract for multi-years in 2023, if he keeps this up and the Padres win.

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22 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

You weren't asking whether the Twins "won" or "lost" the trade, but that's often the discussion on TD. 

Rather than getting into that discussion, can we agree that both sides seem to have "won" so far? That's what good trades should be like.

How Dare You.... Lol

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43 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

You weren't asking whether the Twins "won" or "lost" the trade, but that's often the discussion on TD. 

Rather than getting into that discussion, can we agree that both sides seem to have "won" so far? That's what good trades should be like.

Absolutely agree. I'm glad he's doing well there, and I think Paddack will be a very good starter for us. I understand why the Twins did it and as I said, I liked the deal. It'll be interesting to see what kind of contract Rogers gets after this season. 

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2 hours ago, CRF said:

I'm sure a lot of you have seen this already...Taylor Rogers just saved his 11th game last night for the Pads. He's converted 11 out of 12 save opportunities. Not too shabby. I still like the trade and would've done it, but that's pretty darn good. 

If he was playing for Twins he would not have had 11 saves, mainly the lack of chances.  Rodgers has looked great, but I have a feeling he would not have made to many of our losses wins if we had him over someone else.  Maybe like 1 or 2 more wins at most. 

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On 5/6/2022 at 2:54 PM, Trov said:

If he was playing for Twins he would not have had 11 saves, mainly the lack of chances.  Rodgers has looked great, but I have a feeling he would not have made to many of our losses wins if we had him over someone else.  Maybe like 1 or 2 more wins at most. 

Agreed

the Twins have 3 blown saves in 7 save opportunities (as of 5/5) the Padres have 4 blown saves in 15 opportunities. That would be 1.2 more wins on the young season. 
 

where I think it might help is increasing the depth of the Twins bullpen. They might have another save opportunity or two added on, with a couple extra holds.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/most-blown-saves-mlb-2022-sgc/

 

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The 2022 Twins bullpen would not be ruined or saved by Rogers. Rogers could only do so much. If the bullpen was bad, Rogers wouldn't suddenly make it good. Look at last year.  

I'm glad he's succeeding in SD. I'm certainly not surprised. If I'm the Twins I do the trade 10/10 times. It's probably going to end out working well for both teams. 

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I will take the contrarian view - we miss Rogers and his value is more than Paddack at this point.  The assumption that we could not have signed or extended him has no basis.  Did we try?  Good luck to him and I hope Paddack's injury does not keep him from his comeback trail. 

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48 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed

the Twins have 3 blown saves in 7 save opportunities (as of 5/5) the Padres have 4 blown saves in 15 opportunities. That would be 1.2 more wins on the young season. 
 

where I think it might help is increasing the depth of the Twins bullpen. They might have another save opportunity or two added on, with a couple extra holds.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/most-blown-saves-mlb-2022-sgc/

 

Blown saves in a team context isn't that helpful to begin with, even when discounting for the SSS of less than 30 games played to date.

The three blown saves in question for the Twins are: 

1. Duffey gives up two in the 9th in a 4-3 loss on 4/9. Purely a blown save. 

2. Duffey gives up two runs (and the lead) in the 6th on 4/19. That's considered a blown save because he could have theoretically gone four innings to get the save, but that wasn't going to happen.

3. Pagan gives up a run in the 8th on 4/26. Again, it's considered a blown save because he could have gone 1.2 innings to get the save. Twins win anyway by scoring two in the ninth.

 

"Blown saves" haven't cost the Twins much in their 11 losses. Scoring 18 total runs in those games is what cost them. 

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10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I will take the contrarian view - we miss Rogers and his value is more than Paddack at this point.  The assumption that we could not have signed or extended him has no basis.  Did we try?  Good luck to him and I hope Paddack's injury does not keep him from his comeback trail. 

The opportunity to resign Rogers remains in place unless he is extended by the Padres.  We should be in great shape in terms of payroll flexibility given the payroll for starters next year will be $12M for Gray and a bunch of prearb guys.   We won't have much invested in the BP next year either and I would say the odds of Correa opting out are 5:1 so I could see them being more willing to spend on BP arms. 

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11 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I will take the contrarian view - we miss Rogers and his value is more than Paddack at this point.  The assumption that we could not have signed or extended him has no basis.  Did we try?  Good luck to him and I hope Paddack's injury does not keep him from his comeback trail. 

1. Is the one season of Rogers worth more than the combined seasons of Paddack and Pagan.

2. And we can still sign Rogers if the Padres don't extend him. We probably won't, but naming that possibility points to the reality that we're only guaranteed to have lost one season of Rogers.

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4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The opportunity to resign Rogers remains in place unless he is extended by the Padres.  We should be in great shape in terms of payroll flexibility given the payroll for starters next year will be $12M for Gray and a bunch of prearb guys.   We won't have much invested in the BP next year either and I would say the odds of Correa opting out are 5:1 so I could see them being more willing to spend on BP arms. 

And $3.125M for Maeda, but your point still stands.

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16 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

And $3.125M for Maeda, but your point still stands.

It would probably be $7M-$9M if he is healthy but I am betting he gets traded this off-season, especially if he can show he is healthy at the end of this season,  That contract will make him attractive to a lot of teams.  Off course, I am assuming / hoping the twins don't have any long term injuries that would influence keeping Maeda.  I am hoping for Gray / Ryan / Winder / Paddack / Ober plus some combination of Balazovic / Canterino / Henriguez and Smeltzer for depth.  Dobnak is a bit of a wildcard too but I am guess he ends up in long relief / traded or cut.  I just don't see the need to keep Maeda if these guys are all healthy. 

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An elbow injury to Paddack is concerning as he had the partial tear last year.  He did try to treat it and also gave it plenty of time of rest,  however,  anytime you have an injury it is concerning,  anytime it is to a pitcher that has a recent prior history of a tear it is even more concerning.   

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 The Padres were willing to give Paddack and Pagan away to a team that was willing to take on about 2.5 years of Eric Hosmer’s contract.  Dominic Smith is someone who the Mets had high hopes for who plays below average LF and 1B and has had a couple of decent offensive years. 
 

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/.amp/news/mets-could-send-dom-smith-to-padres-for-chris-paddack-eric-hosmer-plus-more

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1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I will take the contrarian view - we miss Rogers and his value is more than Paddack at this point.  The assumption that we could not have signed or extended him has no basis.  Did we try?  Good luck to him and I hope Paddack's injury does not keep him from his comeback trail. 

I hadn't heard that assumption much, that we couldn't re-sign him or extend him. Some maybe felt the FO wouldn't, but I don't know for sure. While I believe putting together a good bp isn't as easy as some think, and that having a shut down bp is the difference maker, I'm wondering if this conversation is different if Alcala weren't out.

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1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Blown saves in a team context isn't that helpful to begin with, even when discounting for the SSS of less than 30 games played to date.

The three blown saves in question for the Twins are: 

1. Duffey gives up two in the 9th in a 4-3 loss on 4/9. Purely a blown save. 

2. Duffey gives up two runs (and the lead) in the 6th on 4/19. That's considered a blown save because he could have theoretically gone four innings to get the save, but that wasn't going to happen.

3. Pagan gives up a run in the 8th on 4/26. Again, it's considered a blown save because he could have gone 1.2 innings to get the save. Twins win anyway by scoring two in the ninth.

 

"Blown saves" haven't cost the Twins much in their 11 losses. Scoring 18 total runs in those games is what cost them. 

Very good point, and makes a more clear impact of the depth discussion. If the Twins still had Rogers, they’d have more depth in the bullpen. However that depth wouldn’t come at the expense of innings for Pagan and Duffey (yet) which is where most of the bullpen blow-ups have happened thus far.

Relief pitchers are so volatile, there does need to be a level of fungibility. Especially for a team that can’t afford to eat very many $10m contracts 

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3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The opportunity to resign Rogers remains in place unless he is extended by the Padres.  We should be in great shape in terms of payroll flexibility given the payroll for starters next year will be $12M for Gray and a bunch of prearb guys.   We won't have much invested in the BP next year either and I would say the odds of Correa opting out are 5:1 so I could see them being more willing to spend on BP arms. 

It doesn't seem like spending big $ on the bullpen is a strategy the F.O. takes.  I think they would rather fill that will low dollar signings and/or cheap talent from the minors.  

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47 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Twins got two years of Paddack for a year of a very good reliever. They’ve already started 7 pitchers in the rotation this year. The trade was worth doing, glad they did it, and I think it will wind up a clear win over two years.

Actually the Twins have three years of Paddack. Two years of Pagan. For one year of Rogers. 

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4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I will take the contrarian view - we miss Rogers and his value is more than Paddack at this point.  The assumption that we could not have signed or extended him has no basis.  Did we try?  Good luck to him and I hope Paddack's injury does not keep him from his comeback trail. 

No way to make a judgment on that as we traded one year of Rogers for three years of Paddack and two years of Pagan. Plus Rooker as a throw-in. What if Paddack wins the Cy Young in 2024? 

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1 hour ago, baul0010 said:

It doesn't seem like spending big $ on the bullpen is a strategy the F.O. takes.  I think they would rather fill that will low dollar signings and/or cheap talent from the minors.  

No doubt.  I normally would not expect much spending on the BP.  However, they are likely to be around $70M next year with the following assumptions.

1) Correa opts out which has a very high probability

2) Sano's option is not picked-up.  Also a very high probability.

3) Urshela is non-tendered.  Kirilloff's health and performance will influence this one.  Miranda takes over at 3B and Kirilloff at 1B if Kirilloff is healthy and reasonably productive.

Kirilloff and Miranda are certainly not a sure bet.  They could fill one of those holes in free agency.  Kirilloff staying healthy and delivering on the promise we say early on would be big.  I am hoping for a Kirilloff / Polanco / Lewis / Miranda infield given the high probability of Correa opting out. 

The other wildcard is catcher.  They might spend some money on a FA catcher.  However, they are going to have plenty payroll room to go 3/30-36M on a BP arm. 

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37 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

No way to make a judgment on that as we traded one year of Rogers for three years of Paddack and two years of Pagan. Plus Rooker as a throw-in. What if Paddack wins the Cy Young in 2024? 

It could be even longer.  They got a 19 y/o pitcher (Brayan Medina) who is better than I expected for the PTBNL.  What if he pans out?  It could might be7 or 8 years before we can fully judge this deal.  

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3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Very good point, and makes a more clear impact of the depth discussion. If the Twins still had Rogers, they’d have more depth in the bullpen. However that depth wouldn’t come at the expense of innings for Pagan and Duffey (yet) which is where most of the bullpen blow-ups have happened thus far.

Relief pitchers are so volatile, there does need to be a level of fungibility. Especially for a team that can’t afford to eat very many $10m contracts 

Or less depth. If the Twins have Rogers, they don't have Pagan OR Paddack. And if they don't have Paddack, somebody needs to start four more games. We don't know who that will be, but having Paddack on board makes it easier to take Jax out of the mix as a starter. Taking him out of the bullpen lessens the depth there. Or Winder's in the rotation earlier, missing out on several excellent relief outings.

It's early, but as I note above, I think it's a win for both teams to date. Yippee for the Padres in getting the 11.2 great innings of Rogers to date, but I'm glad the Twins have gotten 31 innings from Pagan and Paddack so far. I think they've benefited more from 31 innings of those two than they would in having 11.2 innings of Rogers and 19.1 innings scattered across others. 

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On 5/9/2022 at 2:31 PM, Major League Ready said:

No doubt.  I normally would not expect much spending on the BP.  However, they are likely to be around $70M next year with the following assumptions.

1) Correa opts out which has a very high probability

2) Sano's option is not picked-up.  Also a very high probability.

3) Urshela is non-tendered.  Kirilloff's health and performance will influence this one.  Miranda takes over at 3B and Kirilloff at 1B if Kirilloff is healthy and reasonably productive.

Kirilloff and Miranda are certainly not a sure bet.  They could fill one of those holes in free agency.  Kirilloff staying healthy and delivering on the promise we say early on would be big.  I am hoping for a Kirilloff / Polanco / Lewis / Miranda infield given the high probability of Correa opting out. 

The other wildcard is catcher.  They might spend some money on a FA catcher.  However, they are going to have plenty payroll room to go 3/30-36M on a BP arm. 

1.  Correa has said he'd be open to returning!  I don't want his $ off the books 

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7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The opportunity to resign Rogers remains in place unless he is extended by the Padres.  We should be in great shape in terms of payroll flexibility given the payroll for starters next year will be $12M for Gray and a bunch of prearb guys.   We won't have much invested in the BP next year either and I would say the odds of Correa opting out are 5:1 so I could see them being more willing to spend on BP arms. 

I have heard this before but I do not know of examples where we have let someone go and then signed them back.

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