Front Page: Twins Game Recap (9/3): Twins Win Nail-biter In Fenway!

[Shaitan]

 

Not really - the ALDS is set up to play back-to-back games (1&2), off day, then back-to-back games (3&4), off day, then game 5.

Details. That's still a lot of off days for a 5 game series. Possible with an off day before and after as well, depending what the rest of the league does.

[yarnivek1972]

Details. That's still a lot of off days for a 5 game series. Possible with an off day before and after as well, depending what the rest of the league does.

It isn’t a “detail” at all. If Rogers is ineffective on the second day of back to back days, that’s a real problem.

[Shaitan]

 

It isn’t a “detail” at all. If Rogers is ineffective on the second day of back to back days, that’s a real problem.

That's also counting on a lot of scenarios falling into place. Close games, etc. It's a concern, yes. Is it a major catastrophe that threatens the season? No. They have Romo and Dyson too. Rogers isn't a traditional closer.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Details. That's still a lot of off days for a 5 game series. Possible with an off day before and after as well, depending what the rest of the league does.

What?

 

The Twins, assuming they make the DS, would play back-to-back games twice...if Rogers continues to be ineffective on back-to-back games, that is a real problem. How is that even an argument?

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

What?

 

The Twins, assuming they make the DS, would play back-to-back games twice...if Rogers continues to be ineffective on back-to-back games, that is a real problem. How is that even an argument?

 

Because not all back-to-back appearances are the same.  If Rogers only has 1 day off before his back-to-back, that's probably different than having 3-5 days of rest before the back-to-back, which should be the case going into the ALDS.

[yarnivek1972]

That's also counting on a lot of scenarios falling into place. Close games, etc. It's a concern, yes. Is it a major catastrophe that threatens the season? No. They have Romo and Dyson too. Rogers isn't a traditional closer.

He’s still BY FAR the best reliever the Twins have. I honestly can’t imagine a situation that he wouldn’t be ideally used in any playoff game even for just a hitter or two. Blow outs are extremely rare in the playoffs.

[yarnivek1972]

Because not all back-to-back appearances are the same. If Rogers only has 1 day off before his back-to-back, that's probably different than having 3-5 days of rest before the back-to-back, which should be the case going into the ALDS.

OK. That might be okay for games 1&2 of the ALDS. What about games 3,4 and 5 and hopefully future series?

[ashbury]

Good win, boys. With a 6.5 game lead on the division, I think we have this wrapped up for good this time.

 

Meanwhile, Oakland is just a half game back on Cleveland. Not a great spot for the Indians, getting swept by Tampa was huge.

That is the position I was very afraid the Twins would be in, during their rough patch. Very glad it's not.

[joefish]

Close games remind me of the good old days.*

We are in pretty good shape. Gaining a bit of momentum again.

We could use a healthy Rosario. And a solid performance for Jose today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

OK. That might be okay for games 1&2 of the ALDS. What about games 3,4 and 5 and hopefully future series?

Do you expect Rogers to pitch every postseason game?

 

The Twins are likely to lose a few of those games and some won't be close (either in the W or L column, doesn't really matter).

 

Back-to-back nights don't happen to a closer that often and it's less of a problem for the Twins because Rogers isn't a traditional closer.

 

Say it's a back-to-back night. Two of the three hitters in the ninth are righties. Why would you use Rogers there anyway?

 

Play the matchup, not the inning.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Yankees are also +2 in games played. While it’s possible they pass the Twins, it’s also very unlikely.

Well, the Yankees trail in HR by 10.

 

But over the last 30 calendar days, the Yankees have out-homered the Twins by 20. Even accounting for the 2 extra games, they could make that up over the remaining 26 days. They don't have a tough schedule either. I guess I'd agree it's unlikely, but maybe not "very" unlikely.

 

If those last-30-days HR rates continue over the remaining games, it could basically be a photo finish! (Twins 319, Yankees 317)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, the Yankees trail in HR by 10.

 

But over the last 30 calendar days, the Yankees have out-homered the Twins by 20. Even accounting for the 2 extra games, they could make that up over the remaining 26 days. They don't have a tough schedule either. I guess I'd agree it's unlikely, but maybe not "very" unlikely.

 

If those last-30-days HR rates continue over the remaining games, it could basically be a photo finish! (Twins 319, Yankees 317)

Fair enough. "Unlikely" is perhaps the better term.

 

Looking over the schedule, the Yankees are playing several bad but not awful teams. 

 

But the biggest difference I see is home/road. After tonight, the Yankees have only six remaining home games against 15 road games. IIRC, their splits haven't been huge this year but not getting to play in that stadium has to hurt them some.

 

And, like the Twins, it's equally as likely New York basically shuts it down and takes the final week of the season off.

[Squirrel]

 

Play the matchup, not the inning.

 

And this is what I thought was stated they were going to do ... use certain pitchers at certain points, based on matchups and in-game situations.

[Intramural Legend]

New York is done playing the Orioles...so there is that going for us 

Edited September 4, 2019 by Intramural Legend

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fair enough. "Unlikely" is perhaps the better term.

 

Looking over the schedule, the Yankees are playing several bad but not awful teams. 

 

But the biggest difference I see is home/road. After tonight, the Yankees have only six remaining home games against 15 road games. IIRC, their splits haven't been huge this year but not getting to play in that stadium has to hurt them some.

 

And, like the Twins, it's equally as likely New York basically shuts it down and takes the final week of the season off.

The Yankees actually have a higher HR rate on the road this season -- and the Twins have a much *lower* HR rate at home.

 

But the biggest mitigating factor, by far, is that the Yankees don't have any more games remaining vs Baltimore! They had 7 in the last 30 days. Using their non-Baltimore rate from the last 30 days, they are still gaining on the Twins, but at a much, much lower rate, which projects them to still finish 9 back.

[Riverbrian]

 

Well, the Yankees trail in HR by 10.

 

But over the last 30 calendar days, the Yankees have out-homered the Twins by 20. Even accounting for the 2 extra games, they could make that up over the remaining 26 days. They don't have a tough schedule either. I guess I'd agree it's unlikely, but maybe not "very" unlikely.

 

If those last-30-days HR rates continue over the remaining games, it could basically be a photo finish! (Twins 319, Yankees 317)

 

After assessment of the sampling. I'd say the Yankees are within the margin of error. 

[Bomba2026]

The Relief pitchers better figure out not to give up HR's before the Playoffs.....

[AlwaysinModeration]

Am I alone in wishing Berrios wouldn’t start tonight, but rather took a few days off and pitches against Cleveland this weekend?

 

1)I think his arm could use a few days of rest, and

2)The games against Cleveland are sort of twice as important as the games against Boston.

[wabene]

I also would have liked to see Berrios get more rest and face Cleveland. The velocity drop is for real. Love the way they've handled Pineda which makes the Berrios situation puzzling to me.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

OK. That might be okay for games 1&2 of the ALDS. What about games 3,4 and 5 and hopefully future series?

 

Game 5 has an off day on either side.  All other games come in bunches of 2 or 3, but as Brock said, Taylor Rogers will not be needed to pitch 19 times in the postseason.

[yarnivek1972]

Do you expect Rogers to pitch every postseason game?

 

The Twins are likely to lose a few of those games and some won't be close (either in the W or L column, doesn't really matter).

 

Back-to-back nights don't happen to a closer that often and it's less of a problem for the Twins because Rogers isn't a traditional closer.

 

Say it's a back-to-back night. Two of the three hitters in the ninth are righties. Why would you use Rogers there anyway?

 

Play the matchup, not the inning.

 

Yes, I would expect my best reliever to be available for every playoff game. And no I don’t think it would be too heavy a workload. There are never more than 3 days without at least one day off. Will I use him every game? Maybe not. But very rarely, especially recently, are games “in the bag” before both starters are out. There’s almost sure to be a key situation in which you want to use your best reliever.

 

I also have no idea what to make of the comment I bolded. It’s contradictory. What if in the 8th inning three straight lefties hit? Or even two of three? Wouldn’t you want Rogers in then? You’re the one saying “play the matchup not the inning”. That situation is almost sure to come up at some point in literally every game after inning 5 or 6. Right now, the only other LHP to choose from are Perez, Thorpe or Smeltzer. Who are you giving the ball to?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes, I would expect my best reliever to be available for every playoff game. And no I don’t think it would be too heavy a workload. There are never more than 3 days without at least one day off. Will I use him every game? Maybe not. But very rarely, especially recently, are games “in the bag” before both starters are out. There’s almost sure to be a key situation in which you want to use your best reliever.

 

I also have no idea what to make of the comment I bolded. It’s contradictory. What if in the 8th inning three straight lefties hit? Or even two of three? Wouldn’t you want Rogers in then? You’re the one saying “play the matchup not the inning”. That situation is almost sure to come up at some point in literally every game after inning 5 or 6. Right now, the only other LHP to choose from are Perez, Thorpe or Smeltzer. Who are you giving the ball to?

It depends on the situation. It’s unlikely that I’m going to use Rogers earlier than the seventh (because those LHB would be up again before the end of the game) and the bullpen is deeper in the postseason while fewer games are played in a week. That means I’d likely churn and burn relievers and use them for 1-2 outs, saving Rogers for later.

 

On top of that, it's unlikely Rogers is asked to get 4+ outs, something he was asked to do quite a bit earlier in the season when his back-to-back stats started to really collapse. I find it equally likely that Rogers will be asked to get two outs as he’s asked to get four during the postseason because there’s so little reason to lean on him that hard in a pretty deep, lightly taxed, and more evenly-handed pen.

[Tom Froemming]

Just a fun fact I came across: The Twins bullpen is tied for the seventh-best in HR/9 on the season. Only teams better: STL, BOS, OAK, SFG, ARI, CLE. The Yankees are 13th and the Astros are 18th.

[IndianaTwin]

 

I also would have liked to see Berrios get more rest and face Cleveland. The velocity drop is for real. Love the way they've handled Pineda which makes the Berrios situation puzzling to me.

 

In skipping him, they'd have to go by bullpen two nights in a row, since the other three starters aren't available tonight.

 

Berrios going tonight allows him to go next Tuesday against and then on the second Sunday against Cleveland. 

 

At this point, this weekend shapes up as Pineda, Odo, Bullpen. With the off day on Monday, next week shapes up as Berrios and Perez on Tuesday and Wednesday against the Nationals. Staying on schedule would mean Pineda on Thursday against Washington, but Gibson would also be eligible to return by then. I'd use Gibson or the bullpen on Thursday to give Pineda, Odo and Berrios against Cleveland. 

 

All that to say that staying on schedule gives the opportunity for Cleveland to get Pineda and Odo twice, Berrios once, and the bullpen once. Recently, Pineda and Odo have been the two most effective, so that seems about as good as we can get with Gibson on the IL. Pulling contortions to get Berrios, Odo, and Pineda twice against Cleveland requires throwing everyone off schedule and also likely requires more bullpenning.

 

What I DO hope is that the offense scores enough against Rodriguez tonight to feel good about pulling Berrios after a spiffy 82 pitches through six. 

 

(And I won't be at all surprised to see Berrios skipped once during the Chi/KC/Det/KC conclusion to the season, particularly if they can wrap up early. Or at the least that they throw in a bullpen game or two in lining up the playoff rotation.)

Edited September 4, 2019 by IndianaTwin

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I am more forgiving of misjudged long fly balls by announcers after yesterday.

 

I was close enough to the field last night i was bad at judging how deep fly balls were.

 

And will folk forgive me for secretly hoping it made it to extras juat to see Buxton bat?

 

No?

 

I thought not...

[Platoon]

There is little doubt about several thingss as they pertain to Rogers:

 

He is Rocco's go to RP late in the game.

I am not sure splits are a factor in his use.

His is there only trustworthy LHRP.

He has been asked to get 4-5 outs repeatedly.

He doesn't seem to recover well the next day.

Hoping the games aren't close, or that being behind will mitigate this, isn't a strategy, it's wishful thinking!

[yarnivek1972]

It depends on the situation. It’s unlikely that I’m going to use Rogers earlier than the seventh (because those LHB would be up again before the end of the game) and the bullpen is deeper in the postseason while fewer games are played in a week. That means I’d likely churn and burn relievers and use them for 1-2 outs, saving Rogers for later.

 

On top of that, it's unlikely Rogers is asked to get 4+ outs, something he was asked to do quite a bit earlier in the season when his back-to-back stats started to really collapse. I find it equally likely that Rogers will be asked to get two outs as he’s asked to get four during the postseason because there’s so little reason to lean on him that hard in a pretty deep, lightly taxed, and more evenly-handed pen.

I would agree that Rogers isn’t likely to be used for more than 3 outs very often in the playoffs and that fewer than 3 is likely.

 

As it stands now, the 4th playoff starter is between Gibson and Perez. Gibson’s condition is a factor that could give it to Perez by default and could possibly keep Gibson off the roster entirely. It doesn’t sound like that is likely, but it is possible and something Falvine should be prepared for. That could make Rogers the only LHP in the bullpen because I don’t think it is at all likely Smeltzer or Thorpe are picked. Particularly because they haven’t really shown they are especially effective vs LHB. If only there was a veteran in the organization about whom that was true...

[USAFChief]

It depends on the situation. It’s unlikely that I’m going to use Rogers earlier than the seventh (because those LHB would be up again before the end of the game) and the bullpen is deeper in the postseason while fewer games are played in a week. That means I’d likely churn and burn relievers and use them for 1-2 outs, saving Rogers for later.

 

On top of that, it's unlikely Rogers is asked to get 4+ outs, something he was asked to do quite a bit earlier in the season when his back-to-back stats started to really collapse. I find it equally likely that Rogers will be asked to get two outs as he’s asked to get four during the postseason because there’s so little reason to lean on him that hard in a pretty deep, lightly taxed, and more evenly-handed pen.

my guess is its MORE likely Rogers is asked to get 4, 5 or 6 out saves in the postseason.

 

And I strongly doubt Baldelli gives anyone but Rogers save opportunities as well.

 

Rogers has been the "closer" for a while now. There's been no "playing matchups." Like it or not, that's pretty much the way Baldelli has been playing ot for months, and I highly doubt he changes in the postseason.

[ScooterDance]

I’m just going to presume the twins bats are gonna bash and Rogers won’t be needed as much.

 

Also, plenty of rest days after we go 3-0 and 7-0 to start our playoff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

my guess is its MORE likely Rogers is asked to get 4, 5 or 6 out saves in the postseason.

And I strongly doubt Baldelli gives anyone but Rogers save opportunities as well.

Rogers has been the "closer" for a while now. There's been no "playing matchups." Like it or not, that's pretty much the way Baldelli has been playing ot for months, and I highly doubt he changes in the postseason.

If Rogers comes out for the ninth and faces three righties, that is a massive failure of analytical management on Baldelli's part.

 

Sure, Rogers has a good OPS against RHB but he has given up six home runs to them this season. Dyson has a similar split but Romo is markedly better.

 

When every out matters like they do in the postseason, I'll be disappointed if Baldelli just rolls with a "he's our closer" mentality, especially because Rogers is left-handed and the Twins will likely face some truly nasty right-handed dominant lineups in the postseason.