Front Page: Will the Twins Submit To Jake Odorizzi A Qualifying Offer?

[Trov]

I personally would not give QO.  If you want him back work out a contract you expect him to sign.  If you go QO, then him and his agent say that is starting offer and will want more, which he will not get, go into offseason with QO over his head and end up Lance Lynn style.  Think about it, past Cy Young winners have not got signed because of the QO.  So if offered Odo should accept it, but then he may resent team for it and Odo strikes me as one that needs to be in good mood to perform well.  Of the three FA to be, I would like to see Twins sign one and it would be Big Mike.  He has been most consistant pitcher this year and been getting better as year goes on.  I would not want 3 or 4 rookie, near rookie pitchers.  Maybe they go out to sign a FA not sure what will be there though. 

 

For Odo, I personally would pass though. 

[cmoss84]

No to QO. For anyone. 

 

But I offer Odorizzi and Gibson 2/20 deals. They get more than that somewhere else, so be it. 

I offer Pineda a 2/30 type of deal and pick up the option on Perez. 

 

Cole is obviously the top prize in FA, and a long-shot to sign with us. I'm sure he resigns with HOU or Yankees sign him.

 

Hamels or Bumgarner (or both) would be nice. Probably slot in as 3's. But I would like to get one of them. Wheeler is the other wildcard. 

 

1 Berrios

2 Hamels or MadBum

3 Pineda

4 Odorizzi or Gibson

 

5 Revolving door of Perez and the AAA guys. Definitely not a rotation with top-notch aces. But-a rotation with a ton of depth. The type of rotation that can survive if we have the lineup that we do. 

 

[amjgt]

 

Odorizzi would be doing himself a disservice if he declined the QO. Last year's debacle should raise red flags to anyone about to receive a QO... I'm sure he doesn't want to sit around until June when the QO draft pick compensation ends.

 

Yep. This.

 

If the Twins want him back, the best way to accomplish that would be to use the QO as leverage. Not in a mean way, but as a "Listen, Jake, we want you back, but we can't let you go for nothing, so if we can't come to agreeable extension, then we're going to have to QO you."

 

Perhaps he calls their bluff and doesn't mind the 18M 1 year deal. I mean, that's obviously more than he'd get for AAV on the open market. And on a 1 year deal I doubt the Twins would be too worried about that $18M either. Not the ideal spend of $18M, but very little overall risk associated with it. 

[rdehring]

I expect the FO to surprise all of us later this year.  After they have gotten through any discussions with all three of Odorizzi, Gibby and Pineda, I look for them to complete a major trade with someone for a young starter who is a legit #2 or #3 starter.  As for who that may be, that's what all those guys getting checks from the Twins is for.

 

When you look at this lineup and the players knocking on the door, they have assets available for a move, a big one.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

As I indicated, the Twins need to get 2 starters better than Berrios next offseason.  So Perez fourth and Smeltzer fifth or Romero fourth and Graterol fifth will be more than fine with me.  The window is short and they need to go all out.  Thus re-signing Odorizzi for a lot of $ is a bad option.  They don't need him.  They need better pitchers.

 

By WAR, over the last 3 years, there are only 18 pitchers better than Berrios.

 

Scherzer--potentially available, but at a King's ransom

deGrom--potentially available, but at a King's ransom

Sale--probably don't want him

Verlander--not available

Cole--available at about $35M a year

Corbin--potentially available, but at a King's ransom

Kluber--not available/probably don't want him

Strasburg--could be available, if so, at about $30M a year

Nola--not available

Greinke--not available

Carrasco--potentially available, but at a King's ransom

Bauer--not available/probably don't want him

Morton--potentially available, but at a King's ransom

Severino--probably don't want him

Kershaw--not available

Paxton--probably don't want him

Marquez--not available

Lynn--probably don't want him

 

There's obviously the caveat that any player is available for the right price, but the players above I listed as not available would take a deal starting at Graterol + Lewis/Kiriloff (if not both) to get.  There is almost no way the Twins get two of these guys (or others that might be more desirable now and for the future): one will be hard enough.  It's also worth mentioning that over the last 3 years Odorizzi is 50th in WAR--if you restrict that to the last 2 years (only his Twins years), he's at 22nd.  I think 1 year at ~$18M or 3 at ~$45M is a very reasonable price to pay for a guy who has upped his k rate while dropping his bb rate, all while increasing velocity and getting more swinging strikes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But I offer Odorizzi and Gibson 2/20 deals. They get more than that somewhere else, so be it.

I offer Pineda a 2/30 type of deal and pick up the option on Perez.

You’d rather have Perez at $7.5m for one season than have Odorizzi for, say, $12m per season for two seasons?

 

Yikes, no way. I choose Odorizzi 11 times out of 10 in that scenario.

[yarnivek1972]

I'm moving on from Odo and his 5 1/3 innings at 90 pitches. Way, way too many pitches per inning. Kills the bullpen.

That’s literally league average these days.

[yarnivek1972]

My question would be of those who received a QO how many eventually signed a contract extension? It was mentioned how many accepted the QO.

[amjgt]

 

My question would be of those who received a QO how many eventually signed a contract extension? It was mentioned how many accepted the QO.

 

Seven QO in 2018.

https://www.mlb.com/news/list-of-players-who-got-qualifying-offers-c300130990

 

Keuchel

Corbin

AJ Pollack

Grandal

Ryu

Harper

Kimbrel

Ryu was the only one to accept it.

Nobody else ended up with their original team

[cmoss84]

 

You’d rather have Perez at $7.5m for one season than have Odorizzi for, say, $12m per season for two seasons?

Yikes, no way. I choose Odorizzi 11 times out of 10 in that scenario.

If it was Odorizzi at 2/24, I'd like to have him and Perez at 7.5 both on the staff. 

 

I just don't want to spend QO $ on him. 

[cmoss84]

 

That’s literally league average these days.

The golden question is, do you spend QO dollars for a league average pitcher? 

[amjgt]

 

Seven QO in 2018.

https://www.mlb.com/news/list-of-players-who-got-qualifying-offers-c300130990

 

Keuchel

Corbin

AJ Pollack

Grandal

Ryu

Harper

Kimbrel

Ryu was the only one to accept it.

Nobody else ended up with their original team

 

Here's a link to an MLB Trade Rumors article about potential QO Players.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/09/forecasting-the-qualifying-offer-market.html

 

[amjgt]

 

The golden question is, do you spend QO dollars for a league average pitcher? 

 

Except he's had league average start duration, but above average start results. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The golden question is, do you spend QO dollars for a league average pitcher? 

 

How do you propose getting 4 starters here, if you don't QO one or both of Pineda and Odo?

[amjgt]

 

How do you propose getting 4 starters here, if you don't QO one or both of Pineda and Odo?

 

Interesting thought experiment....

Would you rather have:

Odo and Pineda - for $36M
or
Cole and Smeltzer - for $36M

Feel free to replace Smeltzer with any of the other guys like him (Thorpe, Gonsalves, etc)

[cmoss84]

 

Except he's had league average start duration, but above average start results. 

Just my opinion...I see him as a league average to slightly above league average pitcher. Would like to have him on our team, but not for QO. 

Edited September 3, 2019 by cmoss84

[D.C Twins]

 

This is a bit of a fallacy.   For next season the Twins have signed:

 

Berrios

Smeltzer

Thorpe

Dobnak

Poppen

Jax

Barnes  etc. 

 

 

All of whom have started at least in AAA and the 3 first in the majors, plus

 

Romero &

Graterol

 

who should also be on the conversation

 

plus they have an option on

 

Perez.

 

That's 10 starters, half of them (Berrios, Perez, Smeltzer, Romero, Thorpe) with major league experience as starters.  This does not include other pitchers under contract like Littell and May who may also be on the equation.  Plus that Gonsalves guy.

 

It will not behoove the Twins to overpay for a middle to rear of the rotation starter like Odorizzi.  They should look for 2 arms better than Berrios and I am sure that 2 of the mentioned 13 will be able to fill the last 2 spots of the rotation gallantly, or at least as well as Odorizzi.

You are technically correct, but...

1. WOOF; That SP list is for a 70 win team. And

2. A QO is good for contract negotiations and with a draft pick as a fall back. Odo will almost certainly be offered at least a 3 year deal for 30+mil so he will either sign a long term contract with us or we get a draft pick. Same for Pineda.

3. Please never mention Perez in the context of a future Twins SP again

[cmoss84]

 

How do you propose getting 4 starters here, if you don't QO one or both of Pineda and Odo?

You don't think Pineda would take a 2/30 deal? 

 

Like I said in my above post, I want to sign Hamels or Bumgarner (Cole notgonnahappen). 

Pineda signs for 2/30.

Either Odorrizi or Gibson signs for 2/20 (so probably Gibson if either of the 2).

Perez starts at #4 or #5 in rotation, depending on if Gibson signs the 2/20. The AAA guys cycle through the back end of the rotation. 

 

[D.C Twins]

 

Interesting thought experiment....

Would you rather have:

Odo and Pineda - for $36M
or
Cole and Smeltzer - for $36M

Feel free to replace Smeltzer with any of the other guys like him (Thorpe, Gonsalves, etc)

Good thought experiment, but I tend to feel that we have to overpay to get established free agent pitching in MN and given the free agent market, I think the big boys will be outbidding us by a long shot even if we try to overpay (which we will not)

[Bomba2026]

I would try to resign him for less now, then after the season. Same for the other players. I'd hire Johann Santana as the new Pitching Coach as well. There is no way in hell the Twins should ever shell out a contract like Harper in Philly has...

[SwainZag]

 

You don't think Pineda would take a 2/30 deal? 

 

Like I said in my above post, I want to sign Hamels or Bumgarner (Cole notgonnahappen). 

Pineda signs for 2/30.

Either Odorrizi or Gibson signs for 2/20 (so probably Gibson if either of the 2).

Perez starts at #4 or #5 in rotation, depending on if Gibson signs the 2/20. The AAA guys cycle through the back end of the rotation. 

 

I really think that Pineda and Odo are going to be at least looking for 3 year deals in FA.  Odo at 2/20 is ridiculously low, IMO.  

[cmoss84]

 

I really think that Pineda and Odo are going to be at least looking for 3 year deals in FA.  Odo at 2/20 is ridiculously low, IMO.  

You are probably right on the 3 year deals. And you are probably right on the 2/20 being very low. But that is what I would offer them, and then move on. Gibson may take 2/20. Pineda 2/30 seems fair. 

I'd rather spend money on Hamels/Bumgarner and then let Perez/Thorpe/Smeltzer take the #4/#5 slots.

(To me, this is just buying time for our prospects to be ready). 

Edited September 3, 2019 by cmoss84

[IndianaTwin]

Yep. This.

 

If the Twins want him back, the best way to accomplish that would be to use the QO as leverage. Not in a mean way, but as a "Listen, Jake, we want you back, but we can't let you go for nothing, so if we can't come to agreeable extension, then we're going to have to QO you."

 

Perhaps he calls their bluff and doesn't mind the 18M 1 year deal. I mean, that's obviously more than he'd get for AAV on the open market. And on a 1 year deal I doubt the Twins would be too worried about that $18M either. Not the ideal spend of $18M, but very little overall risk associated with it.

 

Exactly. Negotiation doesn’t have to be adversarial. In fact, it’s much better if you can keep it from being so. Hopefully you have a good enough relationship with someone to be able to say, “Jake, we can’t go 2/$36M, but we’d really like to have you this coming year. We also agree with our ace consultant AMJGT that we don’t want to let you go for nothing. With where we are as a franchise, we think we can do 2/$26M. Is your preference to have the 2/$26M or would you rather take the $18M we’re willing to give you on a one-year deal and take your chances on having a good enough year to be able get $10M in 2021? And if you decide to go with neither, we understand, and we’ll give you a good reference because you’ve done a great job for us.”

[yarnivek1972]

It seems to me an extension offer makes more sense than a QO. As someone else said, the only reason to QO him is to get the pick when he walks. But after a guy like Kuechel had to wait months to get an offer with the QO attached, I suspect guys like Odorizzi, Gibson and Pineda would also have trouble finding suitors willing to give up the pick. They all have flaws, though different ones. Of the three, Odorizzi is likely the one a team (or maybe a few teams) will gamble on offering four years, because he’s the youngest and has no substantial injury history. Gibson is going to have a hard time getting much more than 2 years. Pineda 3 probably. At what price, I can’t say. I haven’t followed other FA signings closely enough the last couple years. Pineda is likely going to get the most per year.

[IndianaTwin]

Interesting thought experiment....

Would you rather have:

Odo and Pineda - for $36M

or

Cole and Smeltzer - for $36M

Feel free to replace Smeltzer with any of the other guys like him (Thorpe, Gonsalves, etc)

Odo, Pineda, and Thorpe for $36.5M.

[ewen21]

 

I'm moving on from Odo and his 5 1/3 innings at 90 pitches.  Way, way too many pitches per inning.   Kills the bullpen.

It's often worse.

 

Look.  I think the guy is actually a good pitcher.  I have to qualify these comments with that, but like you say the pitch count thing is hard to take.  He pitches at such a slow pace sometimes, too.  It is just so darn hard watching him sometimes.  He could give up a run in five innings, but if he is on pitch 100 as he walks off the mound after five innings that isn't a successful outing to me.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Interesting thought experiment....

Would you rather have:

Odo and Pineda - for $36M
or
Cole and Smeltzer - for $36M

Feel free to replace Smeltzer with any of the other guys like him (Thorpe, Gonsalves, etc)

 

Cole and the Shuttle.  However--if the price of paying Cole is that you can't keep Berrios/Buxton, the scales start slipping back.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting thought experiment....

Would you rather have:

Odo and Pineda - for $36M
or
Cole and Smeltzer - for $36M

Feel free to replace Smeltzer with any of the other guys like him (Thorpe, Gonsalves, etc)

 

Except that's not the option.....You need one of those guys to be the number 5, that still leaves two spots open. Cole and ? fill those?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Odo, Pineda, and Thorpe for $36.5M.

 

Still need one more......

[jz7233]

 

If it was Odorizzi at 2/24, I'd like to have him and Perez at 7.5 both on the staff. 

 

I just don't want to spend QO $ on him. 

Please no more Perez. I believe we've seen enough. It would be a waste of money and roster spot.