Front Page: Will the Twins Submit To Jake Odorizzi A Qualifying Offer?

[jz7233]

 

You don't think Pineda would take a 2/30 deal? 

 

Like I said in my above post, I want to sign Hamels or Bumgarner (Cole notgonnahappen). 

Pineda signs for 2/30.

Either Odorrizi or Gibson signs for 2/20 (so probably Gibson if either of the 2).

Perez starts at #4 or #5 in rotation, depending on if Gibson signs the 2/20. The AAA guys cycle through the back end of the rotation. 

Odorizzi is an all-star this year. He is not going to take less than 2/30. If Twins can get both Pineda and Odorizzi at 2/30. I think it's a win for the team.

Please leave Perez out of discussion. We've seen enough.

[jz7233]

 

You are probably right on the 3 year deals. And you are probably right on the 2/20 being very low. But that is what I would offer them, and then move on. Gibson may take 2/20. Pineda 2/30 seems fair. 

I'd rather spend money on Hamels/Bumgarner and then let Perez/Thorpe/Smeltzer take the #4/#5 slots.

(To me, this is just buying time for our prospects to be ready). 

That's being cheap and showing no respect. If Twins want to win the division next season, signing Odorizzi and Pineda would only be a start.

Edited September 3, 2019 by jz7233

[Thrylos]

 

There aren't going to be two better pitchers than Berrios going to any one team, let alone here. That's just not realistic, given history of all of MLB.

 

a. I think that you might be overrating Berrios

b. It is about time that they start making trades

c. All it will take is to sign one and trade for one

d. Here are the FA SP I place ahead of Berrios (and there are a few more ahead of Gibson/Odorizzi/Pineda) : Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Cole Hamels, Dallas Keuchel, Corey Kluber (option), Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler

e. Plenty of choices out there...

[darin617]

I would rather offer him the QO than a long term deal. If he performs good in 2020 then we can go through this another time.

 

I just don't want to see this turn into a Phil Hughes deal that we would regret.

 

Better to overpay for 1 year than get burned on a long term deal.

[jorgenswest]

I would make the qualifying offer to Odorizzi.

 

I am not concerned about killing the bullpen. It didn’t happen this year. They used the AAA roster to successfully lengthen the bullpen. A 26th player in the roster next year will also help.

 

I would also make the qualifying offer to Pineda.

[yarnivek1972]

I don’t think Odorizzi or Pineda or Gibson are likely to accept a QO. They would all easily get more guaranteed money with a FA contract because of the length.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don’t think Odorizzi or Pineda or Gibson are likely to accept a QO. They would all easily get more guaranteed money with a FA contract because of the length.

 

except that whole pesky....no one wants to give up a draft pick thing.....

 

which, really, would you not give up a first round pick for Pineda?

[darin617]

 

I don’t think Odorizzi or Pineda or Gibson are likely to accept a QO. They would all easily get more guaranteed money with a FA contract because of the length.

I don't think any team would give up a pick for any of the 3.

 

Dallas Keuchel went unsigned this year because he was handcuffed with the QO.  Anyone not an ace would go through the same thing he did.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Still need one more......

 

My full answer is above. I'm just saying I don't want to spend the money on Cole that it's going to take, especially if it's the $35+ million described in the scenario. If I'm going to spend $36 million, I'd rather do it on Pineda and Odo for one year and have than lock into Cole for several at that price per year. 

 

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

I don't think any team would give up a pick for any of the 3.

 

Dallas Keuchel went unsigned this year because he was handcuffed with the QO. Anyone not an ace would go through the same thing he did.

And look at how many teams have been looking for starting pitchers all season. I suspect many teams will change their strategy this season because pitching is do scarce.

[beckmt]

Let's break this down.  Cole will be at about 5/200 or 6/210, do any of us see the Twins spending that type of money given the history of this club.

Wheeler will probably be in the 5/100 to the 5/125 range.  A lot of money for a good, but not great starter.  And both of the above will cost you a first round pick. 

Ryu - too much injury history, Bumgardner - too much money for what is now an average plus pitcher. Hamels - too old.

So you are left with a trade, which will cost you a lot of capital - even if you start with Rosario (who is the least valuable of the Twin outfielders).  Best you might do is Rosario, Alcaca or Gaterol, and Gordon maybe plus to pry a good pitcher away from a club that might see a pitcher in the first or second year of arbitration and a long way from competing.  

Perez's option is reasonable, what you see is what you get, an above average 5th starter.  Twins window is open, but improvements are needed to keep it open beyond the next 2 years.  And those improvements have to be in the pitching area. So do not see the Twins risking their future next year on having 2 rookie starters both perform.  

I want to QO Pineda and try to work a deal with him, I am guessing it will take like 3/45 to be in the ballpark.  Oderizzi, I am more on the fence with, but he will probably take a QO and that pushes the problem a year down the road.  And no to Gibson, this was my take even before his health issues.  

[Doctor Wu]

 

As I indicated, the Twins need to get 2 starters better than Berrios next offseason.  So Perez fourth and Smeltzer fifth or Romero fourth and Graterol fifth will be more than fine with me.  The window is short and they need to go all out.  Thus re-signing Odorizzi for a lot of $ is a bad option.  They don't need him.  They need better pitchers.

Yes, they need better pitchers, specifically another VERY GOOD starter or two, but I can't see that happening given the Twins' history of lackluster free agent signings. More than likely we're looking at another winter of "the ones that got away." That said, I'd give Odo the QO, but Pineda would be my priority signing.

[Vanimal46]

And look at how many teams have been looking for starting pitchers all season. I suspect many teams will change their strategy this season because pitching is do scarce.

Depends if more teams will try to be competitive or not. I suspect we'll see teams continue to develop their own pitching and fail before giving up draft picks.

[Vanimal46]

except that whole pesky....no one wants to give up a draft pick thing.....

 

which, really, would you not give up a first round pick for Pineda?

As I think more about this, QOs could be used as a tool for mid market teams like the Twins.

 

It gives them the winter to negotiate a long term deal since most teams are now unwilling to give up the draft pick.

 

Sucks for the player involved, as there is risk of them sitting out until June... But I would hope it's used in good faith to negotiate something long term with them.

 

To answer your last question, yes, I would give up a 1st round pick for Pineda, no doubt. Probably for Odorizzi too. Gibson is a no.

[jkcarew]

1) you're bad at selecting and developing starting pitching....so,...

2) you over-spend to acquire it (money or prospect capital); which results in...

3) you aren't very good for very long

 

Front Office is currently deciding if they should go 1, 2, 3.....or directly from 1 to 3.

 

The only thing that's going to make things sustainably better is to change number 1. I wish I saw more evidence that that is happening with this new FO/organization. It can't happen fast enough.

[yarnivek1972]

As I think more about this, QOs could be used as a tool for mid market teams like the Twins.

 

It gives them the winter to negotiate a long term deal since most teams are now unwilling to give up the draft pick.

 

Sucks for the player involved, as there is risk of them sitting out until June... But I would hope it's used in good faith to negotiate something long term with them.

 

To answer your last question, yes, I would give up a 1st round pick for Pineda, no doubt. Probably for Odorizzi too. Gibson is a no.

I think the player has to either accept or reject the QO within a week or so. If I’m a player that is already signed for $18 mil for 2020 why am I negotiating to make less per year? You might be able to get them to sign a deal that pays them the QO amount in year one and then less in future years. I suppose it depends on the player.

[Vanimal46]

I think the player has to either accept or reject the QO within a week or so. If I’m a player that is already signed for $18 mil for 2020 why am I negotiating to make less per year? You might be able to get them to sign a deal that pays them the QO amount in year one and then less in future years. I suppose it depends on the player.

I typed that with the assumption the player declines the QO. If they accept it's all a moot point.

[Jham]

I think the player has to either accept or reject the QO within a week or so. If I’m a player that is already signed for $18 mil for 2020 why am I negotiating to make less per year? You might be able to get them to sign a deal that pays them the QO amount in year one and then less in future years. I suppose it depends on the player.

Happens all the time. You can't assume health, performance and market. Odo is an exact example of a guy who can take advantage of a career year. If he can't replicate this season then he'll be seen as declining. Your window to sign the big deal in MLB is a super small window. I feel bad for Polanco and Kepler who may have cost themselves the chance to ever sign a large contract.

 

If Odo turned down 4 for 60 to accept a QO, he's crazy, imo. Although, if I'm his agent I probably have him decline both of those offers.

Edited September 4, 2019 by Jham

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

1) you're bad at selecting and developing starting pitching....so,...

2) you over-spend to acquire it (money or prospect capital); which results in...

3) you aren't very good for very long

 

Front Office is currently deciding if they should go 1, 2, 3.....or directly from 1 to 3.

 

The only thing that's going to make things sustainably better is to change number 1. I wish I saw more evidence that that is happening with this new FO/organization. It can't happen fast enough.

I think you might be expecting crazy-good results a little too quickly.

 

Here are the Twins' AL FIP rankings by year:

 

2013: 12th

2014: 13th

2015: 9th

2016: 13th (Ryan retires)

2017: 11th (first Falvine season)

2018: 9th

2019: 3rd

 

Obviously, 2020 will tell us if 2019 is an aberration or a trend and while Falvine inherited guys like Berrios, they also made some really savvy pickups in Odorizzi and Pineda at very little/no expense to the farm system. And Gibson was a kinda bad pitcher before they moved him on the rubber and changed his approach in late 2017 when he turned the corner and became a much better, more consistent pitcher.

 

Sure, we'd all like to see more home-grown talent but three drafts isn't a ton of time to rebuild a farm system or implement new protocols for player development. Most recent GMs that have taken over bad teams and rebuilt their systems took roughly 4-5 years before they were fielding very good ballclubs.

[cmoss84]

 

Odorizzi is an all-star this year. He is not going to take less than 2/30. If Twins can get both Pineda and Odorizzi at 2/30. I think it's a win for the team.

Please leave Perez out of discussion. We've seen enough.

 

 

That's being cheap and showing no respect. If Twins want to win the division next season, signing Odorizzi and Pineda would only be a start.

Perez showed enough this year to be in the discussion, no? Still pretty young, and flashed some good stuff. Not saying he should be a fixture in the rotation...but he has some value being a #5 candidate/long guy. 

 

I love Pineda at 2/30. Who knows if he takes it, but it seems reasonable. Maybe a third year option. 

 

Offering a contract to Odorizzi with less annual money than his QO is not being disrespectful. It's called a business. If he doesn't want a lesser contract, then I would rather spend money on Bumgarner and/or Hamels. That is my point. I think those two (even with their ages/miles) are more valuable than Jake. Just like...my opinion. man. 

 

Gibson might take a 2/20 or something close to it. 

 

1-Berrios 2-Bumgarner 3-Pineda 4-Gibson 5-Perez

depth: Thorpe/Gonsalves/Smeltzer/The Cheese Grater/Dobnak

 

[Twodogs]

Id say that they will have to wait and see if Gibby can recover from his latest setback.  Maybe the right medication puts him back into an energized starter that can go 7+ like last year.  If not then I'd be very leery of him.  Odo and Pineda I feel are both candidates for the QO.  At least the Twins would get something for them if they choose to go elsewhere.

[yarnivek1972]

Perez showed enough this year to be in the discussion, no? Still pretty young, and flashed some good stuff. Not saying he should be a fixture in the rotation...but he has some value being a #5 candidate/long guy.

 

I love Pineda at 2/30. Who knows if he takes it, but it seems reasonable. Maybe a third year option.

 

Offering a contract to Odorizzi with less annual money than his QO is not being disrespectful. It's called a business. If he doesn't want a lesser contract, then I would rather spend money on Bumgarner and/or Hamels. That is my point. I think those two (even with their ages/miles) are more valuable than Jake. Just like...my opinion. man.

 

Gibson might take a 2/20 or something close to it.

 

1-Berrios 2-Bumgarner 3-Pineda 4-Gibson 5-Perez

depth: Thorpe/Gonsalves/Smeltzer/The Cheese Grater/Dobnak

Enough to guarantee him $7.5 mil before he throws a pitch in 2020?

[cmoss84]

 

Enough to guarantee him $7.5 mil before he throws a pitch in 2020?

To me, yes.

 

I might be absolutely wrong. But 96 with a 92 cutter has enough potential to pull that trigger. Could really go either way, but I vote yes. 

[jkcarew]

 

I think you might be expecting crazy-good results a little too quickly.

No question the Odorizzi and Pineda acquisitions have worked out very well. And I'm not expecting the good results this fast, I'm hoping. Given the situation the club is in, having one or two internal options emerge...and emerge soon...as a legitimate 1-4 (ok...2-4) might be 'required' for 2020-2022 to work out the way we want.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No question the Odorizzi and Pineda acquisitions have worked out very well. And I'm not expecting the good results this fast, I'm hoping. Given the situation the club is in, having one or two internal options emerge...and emerge soon...as a legitimate 1-4 (ok...2-4) might be 'required' for 2020-2022 to work out the way we want.

Oh, for sure. Someone has to show up in the next 12-24 months to complement Berrios. That person is hopefully Graterol with more on the way as we get a better idea of what's in the system.

[howieramone2]

 

1) you're bad at selecting and developing starting pitching....so,...

2) you over-spend to acquire it (money or prospect capital); which results in...

3) you aren't very good for very long

 

Front Office is currently deciding if they should go 1, 2, 3.....or directly from 1 to 3.

 

The only thing that's going to make things sustainably better is to change number 1. I wish I saw more evidence that that is happening with this new FO/organization. It can't happen fast enough.

Off the top of my head, we picked up 4 quality arms at the 2018 trade deadline and one more at the 2019 deadline. All but a handful of teams are bad at selecting and developing starting pitching. No clue how the Indians do it.

[spelbc]

1. Sure, offer it to him. No way he accepts, but at least the draft pick comp is tied to him.

 

2. People on here commenting that we should sign him for a 2 year deal at $12-14M per year.... get real. This is an age 29 SP coming off an all star appearance. 4 years at $15M per will be his floor in free agency. Everyone wants and needs SP.

[Vanimal46]

1. Sure, offer it to him. No way he accepts, but at least the draft pick comp is tied to him.

 

2. People on here commenting that we should sign him for a 2 year deal at $12-14M per year.... get real. This is an age 29 SP coming off an all star appearance. 4 years at $15M per will be his floor in free agency. Everyone wants and needs SP.

Could be. After the last couple of winters I have no idea how to gauge free agent values.

 

All I know is I want Big Mike and Odorizzi back for sure... I am willing to go up to 4 years in order to beat out the big market teams for both.

[old nurse]

 

I don't think any team would give up a pick for any of the 3.

 

Dallas Keuchel went unsigned this year because he was handcuffed with the QO.  Anyone not an ace would go through the same thing he did.

Boras wanted a 5 year contract. That is what hamstrung Keuchel. Boras lost a game of chicken and Keuchel paid the price.

[old nurse]

 

1. Sure, offer it to him. No way he accepts, but at least the draft pick comp is tied to him.

 

2. People on here commenting that we should sign him for a 2 year deal at $12-14M per year.... get real. This is an age 29 SP coming off an all star appearance. 4 years at $15M per will be his floor in free agency. Everyone wants and needs SP.

A stellar half year does not make a long term contract unless that time frame is you won your team a World Series.