Article: Miguel Sano: A Fading Superstar

[alarp33]

 

Can we get an update on those numbers?

 

Since that post; 

 

.415 OPS, .253 wOBA, 52 wRC+, 46.7 K%

[terrydactyls]

Who else out there in Twins' Land automatically says "slider low and away for a swinging strike three" every time Sano has two strikes on him?

[stringer bell]

Sanó only had one plate appearance last night, but got four strikes (horrible missed call by the ump) and didn't come close. He's struggling for sure, at a time when the team could really benefit from him hitting his stride.

[MABB1959]

Mauer is gone so seems Sano is the new one to hate on.  Last year there was a lot of disappointment in Polanco and look where he is now.  Sano needs at least 2 years with this new coaching staff before he gets  the boot.  This staff if more in line with NYY or Boston coaching as we can see by all the improvements in this team.  Sano has not been her as long as the rest.  But since the team is doing so well you would think we could just sit back and enjoy baseball as they are playing.  For the most part even when they lose it is an exciting game. 

[taadland84]

Update: 3 Home Runs in last two games..He has a chance to get up to 25 on the year for sure. Dude has been injured. People hating on Sano is all too cliche' and somehow at 26 is fading? smh.. Aaron Hicks was 26 when Twins gave him away. David Ortiz was 26 when he played his last game as a Twin.. Have some patience.

[Kelly Vance]

I would like to see fewer articles like this..... many fewer.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Update: 3 Home Runs in last two games..He has a chance to get up to 25 on the year for sure. Dude has been injured. People hating on Sano is all too cliche' and somehow at 26 is fading? smh.. Aaron Hicks was 26 when Twins gave him away. David Ortiz was 26 when he played his last game as a Twin.. Have some patience.

patience is definitely warranted. I wouldn't be shocked if he got optioned if this continues though. 

 

Honestly, I'd like to see something other than HR, K, or BB out of Sano. He's got the power to still hit bombs when shortening his swing, yet for some reason he still swings through his shoes. 

 

Hopefully this is a moot point and the last two days are indicators that he's adjusted to major league pitchers.

[3balls2strikes]

I would like to see more articles like this . . . many more. 

[twins1095]

Let's do a little player comparison using current 2019 season averages per 162 games (to get an idea of per game production).

 

Player A...

 

• .312 OBP - .841 OPS
• 110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIs
• Projected to get on base 218 times during 162 games 
• 4.32 PA per game / 3.45 pitches per plate appearance / 698 PAs per 162 game

 

Player B...

 

• .306 OBP - .883 OPS
• 111 runs - 32 2B - 60 HRs (92 total XBH) -  111 RBIs 
• Projected to get on base 208 times during 162 games
• 4.2 PAs per game / 4.35 pitches per AB / 680 PAs per 162 games
• Projected to get on base 214 times with 114 rbis and runs if you even out PAs

 

Which player would you take and why?  How much more valuable is that player than the other player you didn't choose to take?

Edited July 3, 2019 by twins1095

[wsnydes]

 

Let's do a little player comparison using current 2019 season averages per 162 games (to get an idea of per game production).

 

Player A...

 

• .312 OBP - .841 OPS
• 110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIs
• Projected to get on base 218 times during 162 games 
• 4.32 PA per game / 3.45 pitches per plate appearance / 698 PAs per 162 game

 

Player B...

 

• .306 OBP - .883 OPS
• 111 runs - 32 2B - 60 HRs (92 total XBH) -  111 RBIs 
• Projected to get on base 208 times during 162 games
• 4.2 PAs per game / 4.35 pitches per AB / 680 PAs per 162 games
• Projected to get on base 214 times with 114 rbis and runs if you even out PAs

 

Which player would you take and why?  How much more valuable is that player than the other player you didn't choose to take?

I'm taking Player A because of the RBI total. Runs are what wins games. The differences in the rest of the numbers are negligible enough.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Gleeman and the Geek had a good synopsis of the coaching work done with Sano to help explain/describe his recent skid. The way Gleeman said it, the FO read Parker's TD article on fixing his swing and took free advice.

[twins1095]

I'm taking Player A because of the RBI total. Runs are what wins games. The differences in the rest of the numbers are negligible enough.

Fair answer. More scenario information:

 

Player A’s most used spot in the lineup is say 4th. Player B’s is say 7th.

 

Some of the rbi difference can be explained by better hitters on base in front of Player A and more protection behind. That being said, Player A has more pressure to produce.

 

Does that change your answer at all?

[jkcarew]

Patience continues to be warranted with Sano. You just don't give up on that kind of power without trying everything. I like Sano, but from the outside looking in, it doesn't seem like he's ever made adjustments. If he does, or if he can, he'll be very useful. If he can't, he won't. Maybe the last 1-2 weeks are a sign of something more than just getting some timing back? Maybe these are the early signs that he's learning how to make those adjustments? We'll see.

[wsnydes]

 

Fair answer. More scenario information:

Player A’s most used spot in the lineup is say 4th. Player B’s is say 7th.

Some of the rbi difference can be explained by better hitters on base in front of Player A and more protection behind. That being said, Player A has more pressure to produce.

Does that change your answer at all?

In a vacuum, it doesn't given the info at hand. I had considered that since you listed the PA comps. Though there are plenty of scenarios where it would. 

 

If Player B is still driving in 110+ from the 7 spot that means that he's given plenty of opportunities (though likely buoyed a bit by his 17 added HRs) and since he's got the higher XBH totals he's got plenty of protection as well. There's probably not a discernible difference between the two players in the end. Would Player B still see the same selection of pitches if moved up to cleanup? Hard to say with the info given. They're almost interchangeable. This is a problem I'd absolutely love to have as a manager.

 

Ultimately, for me, the numbers indicate that Player A puts the ball in play more often. That provides value to me especially at cleanup. I'm not really sure there's a wrong answer here though.

[twins1095]

In a vacuum, it doesn't given the info at hand. I had considered that since you listed the PA comps. Though there are plenty of scenarios where it would.

 

If Player B is still driving in 110+ from the 7 spot that means that he's given plenty of opportunities (though likely buoyed a bit by his 17 added HRs) and since he's got the higher XBH totals he's got plenty of protection as well. There's probably not a discernible difference between the two players in the end. Would Player B still see the same selection of pitches if moved up to cleanup? Hard to say with the info given. They're almost interchangeable. This is a problem I'd absolutely love to have as a manager.

 

Ultimately, for me, the numbers indicate that Player A puts the ball in play more often. That provides value to me especially at cleanup. I'm not really sure there's a wrong answer here though.

Again, fair take. Thanks for the response. That’s the overall sort of back and forth thought analysis and take I was hoping other posters would get out of the exercise.

 

The overall output between the two players is essentially the same. Player A does get on base more and drive in slightly more runs. Player B has more power. The RBI difference is somewhat buoyed by the differences in spot in the order. The differences in amount of times on base between the two, especially if you even out the play appearances, is marginal (Player A gets on base on average 1 more time per ~40 games).

 

 

Player A is Rosario’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games.

 

Player B is Sano’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games.

 

Interesting contextual thought exercise because one gets a lot more criticism than the other.

 

Sano’s power numbers will likely come down to a Rosario like level but I think his OBP and average based on his career averages will come up slightly to .240s / .330s so he could actually get on base more than Rosario.

 

Even if it doesn’t come up that high, it should slightly come up to Rosario’s levels. Again, little bit of opinion in this last part but output differences between the two are interesting to look at outside of the noise and bias from the eye test on styles of play.

Edited July 3, 2019 by twins1095

[wsnydes]

 

Again, fair take. Thanks for the response. That’s the overall sort of back and forth thought analysis and take I was hoping other posters would get out of the exercise.

Player A is Rosario’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games.

Player B is Sano’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games.

Interesting contextual thought exercise because one gets a lot more criticism than the other.

You're welcome. That was fun to think through. They both drive me nuts at times and for basically the same reason.

 

For me it's not about what Sano puts into play, it's what he doesn't. When he was scuffling the past couple of weeks he was missing hittable pitches in the zone and then chasing out of it. He can easily cut the strikeouts down while still hitting with power. Hit the pitches in the zone and lay off the ones out of it.

 

Rosario is a bad ball hitter. When he's on I think he does a better job of finding a pitch that he can drive, wherever it may be. When he's off, he's not doing that as well and he gets himself out a lot. 

[Don Walcott]

If Sano plays 100 games this year, he's on pace to hit 37 HRs. He's hitting a HR every 10 ABs so far this season.

Edited July 3, 2019 by Don Walcott

[Doomtints]

 

If Sano plays 100 games this year, he's on pace to hit 37 HRs. He's hitting a HR every 10 ABs so far this season.

 

DFA him. The narrative says he's fading and that's that.

[twins1095]

Update: 

 

Player A (Rosario):

 

• .312 OBP - .841 OPS
• 110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIs
• Projected to get on base 218 times during 162 games
• 3.45 pitches per plate appearance - 700 PAs per 162 game

 

Player B (Sano):

 

• .321 OBP - .896 OPS
• 113 runs - 37 2B - 4 3B - 53 HRs (94 total XBH) - 97 RBIs
• Projected to get on base 219 times per 162 games
• 4.40 pitchers per plate appearance - 680 PAs per 162 games

 

Player C: (Kepler)

 

• .337 OBP - .860 OPS
• 110 runs - 42 2B - 42 HRs (84 total XBH) - 110 RBI
• Projected to get on base 243 times per 162 games
• 3.56 pitches per plate appearance - 721 PAs per 162 games

Player D (Cruz)

 

• .367 OBP - .921 OPS
• 97 runs - 42 2Bs - 42 HRs (84 total XBH) - 120 RBIs
• Projected to get on base 256 times per 162 games
• 4.22 pitches per plate appearance - 698 PAs

 

 

[twins1095]

Sano's numbers if evened to Rosario/Cruz PA levels:

 

• 225 times on base -

 

Sano's numbers if evened to Kepler PA levels:

• 232 times on base

[IndianaTwin]

 

 

Sano's numbers if evened to Rosario/Cruz PA levels:

 

• 225 times on base -

 

Sano's numbers if evened to Kepler PA levels:

• 232 times on base

 

 

This is a helpful exercise, and I think you've demonstrated that when he's healthy, Sano's numbers are as good as (or better than) almost anyone's. However, at this point in his career, we also have to acknowledge that Sano has had gaps of 27, 28, 24, 38, and 42 of his team's games when he was not available to the team because of injury, plus a stretch of 25 games at the end of 2018 in which he played 1 game. That's a little more than a season's worth of games missed over almost exactly four seasons.

 

So while it's true that his stats have been equivalent or better than, say, Kepler per 162 games, Kepler has so far demonstrated a much greater likelihood of playing close to 162 games in a season. 

 

 

[twins1095]

 

This is a helpful exercise, and I think you've demonstrated that when he's healthy, Sano's numbers are as good as (or better than) almost anyone's. However, at this point in his career, we also have to acknowledge that Sano has had gaps of 27, 28, 24, 38, and 42 of his team's games when he was not available to the team because of injury, plus a stretch of 25 games at the end of 2018 in which he played 1 game. That's a little more than a season's worth of games missed over almost exactly four seasons.

 

So while it's true that his stats have been equivalent or better than, say, Kepler per 162 games, Kepler has so far demonstrated a much greater likelihood of playing close to 162 games in a season. 

 

 

Definitely.  This is an exercise of showing per game production when healthy. In the NBA they display points by PPG, in the MLB I think the equivalent of that is pace per 162 games.  The point being that besides some general streakiness, that Rosario and to some extent Kepler also possess, the issue is not Sano's production when healthy.  It is fair to question Sano's ability to stay healthy.

 

With that being said, Sano has performed at this level (.320-.340 OBP / 40 HR / 30 2B / 100 runs / 100+ rbi) at a per 162 game pace his whole career.  This is essentially Kepler's first year where he's taken that jump.  There is something to that as well, although it also shows that Sano has not really improved since entering the majors.  With that being said, some of that lack of improvement may be due to the constant injuries and having to rehab from injuries and never really being able to have a full stable season and a chance to really focus on some of those problem areas. Further, Sano's career average for OBP is essentially at where Kepler is at now in his career year.  

 

The overall point in terms of the exercise is a proof that Sano's issues in striking out do not KEEP him from being at the level of Rosario/Kepler and our other young stars. Sano's production this year is not new. The strikeouts KEEP him from being a level above that and entering the true superstar territory.  

 

Sano may or may not make adjustments and figure out on how to cut down the strikeouts by a standard deviation or two, but this exercise should peg the debate where it truly should be at as a reflection of Sano's actual production now versus where it could be if he could cut down the strikeouts.  I think it would be unwise to give up on a player who's as productive as Sano and who still has the potential to reach another level because the strikeouts, swing and misses, and style of play looks ugly at times.

 

It's important to start with the data and work opinions from the data and based in the data.  I am hoping this exercise pegs the debate in a better place.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is a helpful exercise, and I think you've demonstrated that when he's healthy, Sano's numbers are as good as (or better than) almost anyone's. However, at this point in his career, we also have to acknowledge that Sano has had gaps of 27, 28, 24, 38, and 42 of his team's games when he was not available to the team because of injury, plus a stretch of 25 games at the end of 2018 in which he played 1 game. That's a little more than a season's worth of games missed over almost exactly four seasons.

 

So while it's true that his stats have been equivalent or better than, say, Kepler per 162 games, Kepler has so far demonstrated a much greater likelihood of playing close to 162 games in a season. 

The good news is that his approach in the last week or two appears to have changed. We need that badly. I'd have been willing to send him down when the team got healthy, but if he keeps doing what he's done in the last two weeks, the Ks will be a bit more in the acceptable territory and he'll be hitting at a higher average, generating walks, and still getting the HRs. The question at hand is whether or not he's gotten lucky or has made sustainable changes.

 

Cleveland has clawed back into this, and Sano firing on all cylinders will be a pretty massive upgrade going forward. 

[twins1095]

 

The good news is that his approach in the last week or two appears to have changed. We need that badly. I'd have been willing to send him down when the team got healthy, but if he keeps doing what he's done in the last two weeks, the Ks will be a bit more in the acceptable territory and he'll be hitting at a higher average, generating walks, and still getting the HRs. The question at hand is whether or not he's gotten lucky or has made sustainable changes.

 

Cleveland has clawed back into this, and Sano firing on all cylinders will be a pretty massive upgrade going forward. 

 

I think there is always going to be some level of streakiness.  Both Rosario and Kepler have had and do have multiple streaks of 8-50 type runs throughout the season.  It's the nature of the game.   There's just more of a focus on Sano because of how bad his bad streaks are with the strikeouts that get even more pronounced.   

[Squirrel]

The good news is that his approach in the last week or two appears to have changed. We need that badly. I'd have been willing to send him down when the team got healthy, but if he keeps doing what he's done in the last two weeks, the Ks will be a bit more in the acceptable territory and he'll be hitting at a higher average, generating walks, and still getting the HRs. The question at hand is whether or not he's gotten lucky or has made sustainable changes.

 

Cleveland has clawed back into this, and Sano firing on all cylinders will be a pretty massive upgrade going forward.

Wouldn’t say Cleveland has clawed their way back in because it was too early in the season to discount them. They are now performing as expected while we are coming back to earth, more in our expected range. Will make for a close season after all. And really glad Sano is finding his way back because we need him to.

[stringer bell]

1) The title of this thread is misleading or wrong. Miguel Sanó was never a superstar. Some may have projected him to that status, but the body of work at the major league level was never that of a superstar. It's pretty tough to be a fading superstar when you weren't one in the first place.

 

2) After a pretty dramatic cold streak, Sanó has been one of the Twins' best hitters for the last week plus of play. His numbers for the year have bounced back into the "very good" range.

 

3) I'll repeat what I've said in other Sanó threads--the team promoted this guy as the next Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas and he hasn't been that. I think some of the disappointment about Sanó comes from the expectations.

 

4) Injuries have derailed Sanó more than most. He has been healthy less than two months, but if he stays healthy the rest of the year, I think we fans and the Twins will have a better idea of how good a hitter he will be in the future.

[Mr. Brooks]

1) The title of this thread is misleading or wrong. Miguel Sanó was never a superstar. Some may have projected him to that status, but the body of work at the major league level was never that of a superstar. It's pretty tough to be a fading superstar when you weren't one in the first place.

 

2) After a pretty dramatic cold streak, Sanó has been one of the Twins' best hitters for the last week plus of play. His numbers for the year have bounced back into the "very good" range.

 

3) I'll repeat what I've said in other Sanó threads--the team promoted this guy as the next Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas and he hasn't been that. I think some of the disappointment about Sanó comes from the expectations.

 

4) Injuries have derailed Sanó more than most. He has been healthy less than two months, but if he stays healthy the rest of the year, I think we fans and the Twins will have a better idea of how good a hitter he will be in the future.

I'd be shocked if the team ever said, or even implied that Sano would be as good as Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas.

Do you have any links where that was suggested by the team?

[jctwins]

 

I'd be shocked if the team ever said, or even implied that Sano would be as good as Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas.
Do you have any links where that was suggested by the team?

 

My strongest memory, and it's only that, was the rain delay TV spot when he was in the minor league system that made a number of references to him crushing balls like no one had ever seen, or some similar statement. 

 

[Doomtints]

 

1) The title of this thread is misleading or wrong. Miguel Sanó was never a superstar. Some may have projected him to that status, but the body of work at the major league level was never that of a superstar. It's pretty tough to be a fading superstar when you weren't one in the first place.

 

2) After a pretty dramatic cold streak, Sanó has been one of the Twins' best hitters for the last week plus of play. His numbers for the year have bounced back into the "very good" range.

 

3) I'll repeat what I've said in other Sanó threads--the team promoted this guy as the next Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas and he hasn't been that. I think some of the disappointment about Sanó comes from the expectations.

 

4) Injuries have derailed Sanó more than most. He has been healthy less than two months, but if he stays healthy the rest of the year, I think we fans and the Twins will have a better idea of how good a hitter he will be in the future.

 

Good points. People have mixed him up with Buxton a little bit (and you too perhaps a little bit... I don't remember the Twins marketing Sano as the next big thing).

 

Since Bill Smith left as GM, the Twins felt like reluctant partners with Sano. This is the first year that feels different, where he isn't being jerked around or questioned at every turn by someone in management.

 

Also, consider the source. Twins Daily was part of the Sano drama when it unfolded. A healthy dose of skepticism goes a long way in baseball, this article/narrative is no exception.

[yarnivek1972]

With that being said, Sano has performed at this level (.320-.340 OBP / 40 HR / 30 2B / 100 runs / 100+ rbi) at a per 162 game pace his whole career. This is essentially Kepler's first year where he's taken that jump. There is something to that as well, although it also shows that Sano has not really improved since entering the majors. With that being said, some of that lack of improvement may be due to the constant injuries and having to rehab from injuries and never really being able to have a full stable season and a chance to really focus on some of those problem areas. Further, Sano's career average for OBP is essentially at where Kepler is at now in his career year.

 

The overall point in terms of the exercise is a proof that Sano's issues in striking out do not KEEP him from being at the level of Rosario/Kepler and our other young stars. Sano's production this year is not new. The strikeouts KEEP him from being a level above that and entering the true superstar territory.

 

To me, his lack of substantial improvement in any aspect of his game is by far the most concerning. It suggests an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance of belief that he doesn’t need to get better.

 

As mentioned, Rosario and Kepler have shown an improvement in something every year.

 

The last couple weeks have certainly been an improvement, but old habits tend to resurface when things start to go bad. We’ll see.