So....Time to make a call to Kimbrel?

[howieramone2]

 

Not really, no. The Astros selling high on MLB players would have been foolish last July. Obviously that's an extreme example, but given our roster and 2019 control over Pressly, and the still uncertain future of Alcala/Celestino, it's not yet clear that "selling high" was the right choice in our situation either.

It's perfectly clear. Selling high is always a good move. Always.

[Doomtints]

The Pressly thing was one of the dumbest moves in the history of the franchise. At the time it seemed bad, in retrospect it seems downright suicidal.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's perfectly clear. Selling high is always a good move. Always.

Yeah, the Astros really screwed up by not dealing Gerrit Cole last summer. He would have been the best SP on the market! His value is lower now that he's a pending free agent! ???

 

Selling high is only a good move when the asset severely loses value or utility right after that point. Pressly has neither lost value, nor utility for the 2019 Twins.

[nicksaviking]

 

It's perfectly clear. Selling high is always a good move. Always.

 

Selling is a good move if you're aiming to win a World Series?

 

Seems conventional wisdom says to buy in those circumstances. 

 

Or do you just mean selling high is better than selling low, because that could have and should have gone without saying.

[howieramone2]

 

The Pressly thing was one of the dumbest moves in the history of the franchise. At the time it seemed bad, in retrospect it seems downright suicidal.

Exaggerate much?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm reading a lot of posts here that say they are trying to contend. I read recently read on MLBTR we have a 52% chance of making the playoffs and 28% chance of winning the division.

 

Those two sentences have nothing to do with each other.....nothing.

 

And, if you have a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs, imagine if you had a decent bullpen.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's perfectly clear. Selling high is always a good move. Always.

 

Not if you need the asset you sold off. No, it isn't. Not if the asset would appreciate while you own it, especially if you don't need the asset(s) you got in return. Really, this aphorism simply is not true on its face.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Excellent questions.  I think the answer is that the FO view has changed from the trade deadline to today, although not a lot. They saw Schoop and Cron as opportunistic asset pickups, as compared to strategic acquisitions. They're both relatively young/prime aged (27 and 29) with the possibility to be bounce back or continued breakout players. They are both better at their positions than the guys we had. Cruz is strategic and was brought in both because of his abilities as a player and as a mentor to the young Latin guys. He's also a short term commitment. Perez kind of fell into our laps as a classic high upside flyer that we got cheap.

 

Why not trade Gibson? I think we very well may trade him at the deadline. I expect he will either be traded or extended by late July; probably the same for Odorizzi and maybe for Pineda. 

 

I think the FO is actually telling us the truth in their rare public statements. They are still in evaluation mode, trying to see if the younger "core" is ready now, needs another year, or has to be supplemented or blown up. They will add if they think we're ready. They started that process by trading last year for MiLB assets they hope will either be long term assets or have significant trade value at the deadline this year or next. The Pressley trade gave them good long term or trade assets at the price of not having a guy we all wish we had for this year (assuming the Astros told us how to make him better). Whether that's a good deal depends on how these guys develop or for whom they can be traded this year or next.  Both are unknowns. 

 

I think there is a plan. Let's see/when it works.  

 

three years in they are in evaluation mode? How long will that last?

[ChrisKnutson]

It's perfectly clear. Selling high is always a good move. Always.

This really depends on the situation of the club. I mean, last season I was onboard with selling high on Gibby and Odorizzi, in fact I still am, but since adding Cruz, Schoop, Gonzalez, etc, I’m willing to wait and see if this club has what it takes to win the division, or at least the wildcard. However, this doesn’t mean I’m not frustrated about the fact that our FO traded Pressly, despite still having 2020 on their minds. Dozier, Esco, Rodney, and Duke?? Whatever, those guys were expected to be dealt, not Pressly.

 

When it comes to this season’s deadline, if the FO even has a little doubt about whether or not this team has what it takes, I’d pull the plug. Unless of course they decide to makes moves for big fish like Wheeler, Rendon, Bradley, Stroman, or Smoak (which I really doubt), I’d definitely be on board. But if not, I’d sell everyone except our core players, plus Cruz.

[howieramone2]

 

This really depends on the situation of the club. I mean, last season I was onboard with selling high on Gibby and Odorizzi, in fact I still am, but since adding Cruz, Schoop, Gonzalez, etc, I’m willing to wait and see if this club has what it takes to win the division, or at least the wildcard. However, this doesn’t mean I’m not frustrated about the fact that our FO traded Pressly, despite still having 2020 on their minds. Dozier, Esco, Rodney, and Duke?? Whatever, those guys were expected to be dealt, not Pressly.

When it comes to this season’s deadline, if the FO even has a little doubt about whether or not this team has what it takes, I’d pull the plug. Unless of course they decide to makes moves for big fish like Wheeler, Rendon, Bradley, Stroman, or Smoak (which I really doubt), I’d definitely be on board. But if not, I’d sell everyone except our core players, plus Cruz.

Hard to predict what we will do at the deadline this year, other than I expect them to trade those with expiring contracts. Don't stray too far from the board come the end of July. I think it's going to be wild, one way or another.

[SwainZag]

 

The Pressly thing was one of the dumbest moves in the history of the franchise. At the time it seemed bad, in retrospect it seems downright suicidal.

 

This might be the hottest take I have ever seen.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Are you referring to our offer to Grandal?

 

Or this about Kimbrel?

 

 

FWIW, nobody seemed to believe that report. MLBTR never picked it up, for example.

 

The guy is a "freelance TV sportscaster" from Atlanta. To the extent that it might have had any basis in reality, I suppose it could have been an attempt by someone in/near Kimbrel's camp to get that kind of offer from one of his preferred destinations.

 

As we are seeing right now, even after it's been widely reported that he's willing to accept 3 years, there doesn't seem to be any rush of offers. Even Atlanta, his hometown team, who just lost their closer for the season -- they still don't seem to have any interest in Kimbrel on a 3 year deal.

 

I don't remember where I saw it... this may have been it. Thanks

[Tomj14]

 

Selling high is always is good move. Always.

Based on this logic, Now is time to sell Lewis & Kirilloff they are both top 10 prospects and this would be considered selling "High" would it not?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This might be the hottest take I have ever seen.

Some might even say... too hot?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nclvx4LSRpM

[Tomj14]

 

 

Not if you need the asset you sold off. No, it isn't. Not if the asset would appreciate while you own it, especially if you don't need the asset(s) you got in return. Really, this aphorism simply is not true on its face.

If you absolutely know peak value, then maybe his statement could be true? Or if you goals is always to get maximum return on players regardless of winning maybe that could be true as well.

But I thought the goal of baseball and other sports was to win?

Based on his statement the Patriots were wrong not trading Tom Brady after the 2002, 2004 or 2005 seasons.

Same with Cleveland and Miami not trading Lebron.

[ChrisKnutson]

Hard to predict what we will do at the deadline this year, other than I expect them to trade those with expiring contracts. Don't stray too far from the board come the end of July. I think it's going to be wild, one way or another.

Honestly, I wouldn’t be suprised if we’re sellers at the deadline, especially since we have so many quality players on one year deals/expiring contracts, plus Marwin, to deal from. However, if the FO is interested in acquiring ML players instead of selling them, they better be controllable assets, not rentals.

[Linus]

Regarding Presley. I was against the trade because if you are not trading from a surplus then you are just creating more holes which is exactly what happened. Of course this is predicated on the Twins trying to win this year

[TheLeviathan]

 

Regarding Presley. I was against the trade because if you are not trading from a surplus then you are just creating more holes which is exactly what happened. Of course this is predicated on the Twins trying to win this year

 

That's true, it opened another hole.  But so would have trading Gibson....and yet there are several here with some bizarre hypocrisies on that front in this thread.

 

You don't always get the luxury of trading from a surplus.  When your season goes south and people want to buy high on players that are aging or you have limited control over....you sell those assets.  Hopefully you do a good job trading and create a future surplus you can work with with the assets you acquire.  

 

The Twins had ample resources to address the pitching staff.  They chose to deal Pressly and keep Gibson (at likely peak value) and then turned around and did nothing to address the bullpen holes or supplement the staff in a meaningful way.  There simply is no excuse for that and it's frustration with that lack of effort that is fueling most of our frustration.  I'm frustrated too, btw.  In my offseason plan I had us signing Allen and Herrera for the pen and trading for Gray and Grienke for the rotation.  Why?  Because I saw the depth of the pitching staff as far too thin.  Still do.

 

That's why I'd be calling Kimbrel and offering 3/33 right now.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That's true, it opened another hole. But so would have trading Gibson....and yet there are several here with some bizarre hypocrisies on that front in this thread.

 

You don't always get the luxury of trading from a surplus. When your season goes south and people want to buy high on players that are aging or you have limited control over....you sell those assets. Hopefully you do a good job trading and create a future surplus you can work with with the assets you acquire.

 

The Twins had ample resources to address the pitching staff. They chose to deal Pressly and keep Gibson (at likely peak value) and then turned around and did nothing to address the bullpen holes or supplement the staff in a meaningful way. There simply is no excuse for that and it's frustration with that lack of effort that is fueling most of our frustration. I'm frustrated too, btw. In my offseason plan I had us signing Allen and Herrera for the pen and trading for Gray and Grienke for the rotation. Why? Because I saw the depth of the pitching staff as far too thin. Still do.

 

That's why I'd be calling Kimbrel and offering 3/33 right now.

if you aren’t “trying to win” then you don’t care about the hole in the roster.

 

Baffling to me is investing so heavily into the batting order without investing into pitching talent hardly at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No, it can start from "the season was lost and we got a value offer that blew us away"

 

They had ways to repair the bullpen for 2019. Pressley does not have to be part of a successful bullpen, not for here or anywhere else. This is why the earlier analogy does not fit, it presupposes it was Pressley or death. That notion is inherently flawed and it's causing a ripple down of other flawed arguments.

 

One of the things smart teams do is buy low/sell high. The Twins could've sold high on Pressley and bought low several other ways (trade/FA) and come out ahead. They didn't, that's the problem.

Yep. The Twins were selling high on 1.3 seasons of Pressly. They were out on .3 of those seasons, which at the deadline has the most value.

 

It was a savvy deal.

 

The second part of that deal is to acquire a replacement in the next offseason.

[howieramone2]

 

Based on this logic, Now is time to sell Lewis & Kirilloff they are both top 10 prospects and this would be considered selling "High" would it not?

They are no where near peak value. 

[ken]

It's turning out Pressly wasn't at peak value either when the Twins traded him.

[peterb18]

Expecting the Pohlads to spend money has always been foolish. They could add a solid starter and improve the bullpen but they won't. Not can't. Won't.

No matter the front office, Ryan or this regime, they all say we can spend if we want. Never happens, I mean for top-level players. So we all know it’s ownership, or some quality relievers would be in here now. Would be nice if a franchise could be taken away from the present ownership for lack of interest, or something similar.

[Twodogs]

I saw on MLB that San Fran is looking to shop their relievers. One or two of those guys would be decent.

[Twodogs]

I would have liked to have seen the Twins grab Kimbrel. But at this point he is going to have to go to a team that won't really need him until August, September and October. Because I don't think he will pitch well for the first month or two as he has missed Spring Training and all of April. If he signed now, his S.T. will be May and June and then July will be his April. So he needs to go to a team that can hold it together without him until around the all Star break.

[Channing1964]

After what I've seen so far why not? All the analytics point towards this being a Championship caliber offense and with the payroll flexibility we have we should go All In. If they don't, then either the Pohlads stopped em, or they really dont wanna win.

[ashbury]

All the analytics point towards this being a Championship caliber offense

A series with Baltimore has the chance to do that for you. Let's revisit after seeing how it goes with Houston.

[Channing1964]

It sure will and it will give us a chance to be reminded how asinine it was to trade RP to a team that likely will eliminate us from the playoffs. That trade will make me scratch my head until I ever see the day any one of those suspects step on a major league field.

[Tomj14]

 

They are no where near peak value. 

You didn't say peak you said and I quote "Selling high is always is good move. Always."

 

And as a standard Rule you don't know peak until after it happens.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yep. The Twins were selling high on 1.3 seasons of Pressly. They were out on .3 of those seasons, which at the deadline has the most value.

 

It was a savvy deal.

 

The second part of that deal is to acquire a replacement in the next offseason.

But it's not like we had a good pen to begin with. Keep in mind, Rogers hadn't even had his dominant run yet. Rodney may have been our second best reliever after Pressly.

 

We already needed to add another reliever (and hope they turned out) *before* we traded Pressly. After that, then we needed to add two.

 

And we didn't have unlimited payroll space to do it, considering the other holes we had to address (2B, 1B, DH, maybe 3B, SP).

 

That's kind of a big gamble just to get two 40 FV prospects who probably won't contribute until 2020, if ever.