So....Time to make a call to Kimbrel?

[spanman2]

 

Keuchel has said he’s willing to sign a one year deal, why not? Yeah, we may lose a draft pick, but should that really be holding us back? If so, then should we really even consider ourselves contenders??

Besides, if we sign him, Perez stays in the pen, which I think should be enough incentive since he’s obviously better suited for that kind of role.

If Keuchel will sign a 1 year deal I would have done it yesterday if I were the front office.  Get him signed with the understanding that he needs to make a few minor league starts.

[ashbury]

If Keuchel will sign a 1 year deal I would have done it yesterday

As would also your 29 peers in the other GM chairs.

 

I'm pretty sure what we're seeing is Keuchel turning down a succession of short-term deals.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From the game recap thread (seemed more appropriate going forward in this thread):

 

 

I say don't sign anyone who didn't make it to ST. 7 or 8 teams have no intention of contending, get a pen arm from one of them. Dangle Larnach, Mejia, and/or Trevor May.

This is easier said than done, for a variety of reasons.

 

First of all, I don't think there are quite 7 or 8 teams who are willing to sell good assets quite yet. At least, not without demanding a premium comparable to what they could get in July if their asset improves and they can leverage multiple bidders. There's a reason most trades don't happen until July. And even then, I'm not sure there are many great bullpen assets on these teams -- which pen arm from the Royals, Marlins, and Orioles would you give up value for right now? Maybe Givens from BAL, if your scouts really like him? Try to get Anderson or Kinley back, contrary to what your own talent evaluators concluded very recently? There's not a lot of options on these bad teams.

 

And even if you get past that, those Twins assets you list are not all that valuable at the moment either. May has only 2 years of team control left, so he has very little value to a rebuilding team. Mejia is a longer-term asset -- but he hasn't established much MLB value yet, and he's also out of options and is obviously near the edge of the roster right now. I suspect teams would try to leverage a way to acquire him cheaply, or just hope that the Twins are forced to move him in a roster crunch at some point.

 

Larnach is closer to what it would take, I think, although as a corner player in the low minors, I suspect a lot of teams don't value him that highly, or at least they may think they already have comparable assets of their own.

 

Another way to look at it: would any team trade a Ryan Pressly for these guys right now? I don't think so. So you're either going to get a lesser pitcher in return, in which case what's the point, or you're going to have to cough up something more like Alcala + Celestino, or wait.

[Jham]

Further muddying the waters...

 

1) Presley improved with different coaching in Houston.

 

2) Relivers are bringing the value gap on starters very rapidly in the modern game.

 

3) Presley just signed a very reasonable extension, 3 years $17 mil?

[nicksaviking]

I'd like to sign Kimbrel and I was disappointed that the team didn't sign about three quality bullpen arms this winter. However, I don't have much of a leg to stand on in the 'see I told you so' game as I'm quite certain I posted more than once that the only three guys I really had my heart set on, because they had the track record, the health and the strikeouts, all of which I thought were indicative of continued success were David Robertson, Jeurys Familia and Joakim Soria. All have been terrible.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

I didn't like the Pressly trade at the time it occurred, and I still don't like it today.

 

However, it wouldn't be as big of an issue as it is if the Twins actually, you know, addressed the bullpen in free agency.

[Jham]

I don't mean to pile on, but I too disagree with Chief here. The trade can't be definitively lost for the Twins this year.

 

That said, I do think that some folks over-rate the ways in which the Twins could eventually win the trade. In general terms, the 2018 Twins had more ways to address their 2022 needs than their 2019 needs. Obviously that won't matter if Alcala becomes a Cy Young winner for us, but for a lot of other outcomes, even those outcomes that look superficially good for Alcala relative to Pressly, it could be a factor.

Alcala is 24 in July and still in AA. He better be up this year. How many CY winners developed from 25yo rookies?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

3) Presley just signed a very reasonable extension, 3 years $17 mil?

Actually, it was more like a 2/17.5 extension for 2020-2021, after his $2.9 mil arb salary for 2019. (Plus a team/vesting option year in 2022 at $7-10 mil)

 

I suspect that extension wouldn't have been immediately available to the Twins -- Pressly is a Texas native, and the Astros are just generally a more attractive destination for players right now. But the one year, $2.9 mil deal would have been pretty valuable on its own.

[Vanimal46]

Actually, it was more like a 2/17.5 extension for 2020-2021, after his $2.9 mil arb salary for 2019. (Plus a team/vesting option year in 2022 at $7-10 mil)

 

I suspect that extension wouldn't have been immediately available to the Twins -- Pressly is a Texas native, and the Astros are just generally a more attractive destination for players right now. But the one year, $2.9 mil deal would have been pretty valuable on its own.

Seems like a convenient excuse to say the Twins wouldn't have had the same opportunity to extend him at those terms.

 

Just like when others say you can't call a winner or loser on this trade, we can't definitively say Pressly wouldn't sign a 2/17.5 extension.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Alcala is 24 in July and still in AA. He better be up this year. How many CY winners developed from 25yo rookies?

Obviously I wasn't predicting a Cy! But to be fair to Alcala, he's an international signee who didn't sign until he was 19. Given that, his timeline seems reasonable.

[howieramone2]

 

Well, I disagree. If you need food today, but trade away food for penny stocks, you starve. IF the penny stocks turn into Apple 4 years from now, I'm sure that will be great comfort to your heirs, but those stocks won't bring you back from the grave. And that's only IF the penny stocks turn out to be valuable, which isnt the case for most penny stocks.

The Twins need bullpen help NOW. In a season when many things have aligned to give them an opportunity. Worry about 2023 in 2023. Put it this way...would you trade Celestino and Alcala for Pressly today?

BTW, it's "prospect," not "prospects," as we are talking about the Pressly trade and only one result of that trade is a pitcher.

In 2015 the Astros spent 1M or more on 5 players during IFA with Celestino being the prize at 2.5M. If Buxton walks at free agency time, at this moment, Celestino is the most logical replacement. 

 

Pressly is going to regress. Great trade!

[Jham]

Obviously I wasn't predicting a Cy! But to be fair to Alcala, he's an international signee who didn't sign until he was 19. Given that, his timeline seems reasonable.

And perhaps his success against younger players, predictable?

 

I like him. I think Celestino had Dennard Span upside maybe. I just like Presley more!

[ashbury]

Alcala is 24 in July and still in AA. He better be up this year. How many CY winners developed from 25yo rookies?

Kluber comes to mind. Dickey too. Randy Johnson probably meets your criteria.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In 2015 the Astros spent 1M or more on 5 players during IFA with Celestino being the prize at 2.5M. If Buxton walks at free agency time, at this moment, Celestino is the most logical replacement. 

 

Pressly is going to regress. Great trade!

Does Celestino, at this point, offer any meaningful insurance for that outcome above Baddoo and Ubina? Not to mention, any other players we might draft/sign/acquire/develop in the next 4 years?

 

If Pressly doesn't regress significantly very soon, it will be a costly loss, even if the prospects may help make up for it later.

 

Edit: also, it makes no sense to notably weaken the team during Buxton's prime, to collect another low-odds potential replacement in case Buxton leaves in 4 years. (Obviously the actual trade also included Alcala, who at least has a bit better timeline than what you've offered for Celestino.)

[howieramone2]

 

From the game recap thread (seemed more appropriate going forward in this thread):

 

This is easier said than done, for a variety of reasons.

 

First of all, I don't think there are quite 7 or 8 teams who are willing to sell good assets quite yet. At least, not without demanding a premium comparable to what they could get in July if their asset improves and they can leverage multiple bidders. There's a reason most trades don't happen until July. And even then, I'm not sure there are many great bullpen assets on these teams -- which pen arm from the Royals, Marlins, and Orioles would you give up value for right now? Maybe Givens from BAL, if your scouts really like him? Try to get Anderson or Kinley back, contrary to what your own talent evaluators concluded very recently? There's not a lot of options on these bad teams.

 

And even if you get past that, those Twins assets you list are not all that valuable at the moment either. May has only 2 years of team control left, so he has very little value to a rebuilding team. Mejia is a longer-term asset -- but he hasn't established much MLB value yet, and he's also out of options and is obviously near the edge of the roster right now. I suspect teams would try to leverage a way to acquire him cheaply, or just hope that the Twins are forced to move him in a roster crunch at some point.

 

Larnach is closer to what it would take, I think, although as a corner player in the low minors, I suspect a lot of teams don't value him that highly, or at least they may think they already have comparable assets of their own.

 

Another way to look at it: would any team trade a Ryan Pressly for these guys right now? I don't think so. So you're either going to get a lesser pitcher in return, in which case what's the point, or you're going to have to cough up something more like Alcala + Celestino, or wait.

Obviously more teams will come to the party at the trade deadline, but the board is screaming for action now. No idea who's available, I listed 3 players we don't need at this point in time, that have a least some trade value. Times are a changin'. I'd get on the phone today.

[Jham]

In 2015 the Astros spent 1M or more on 5 players during IFA with Celestino being the prize at 2.5M. If Buxton walks at free agency time, at this moment, Celestino is the most logical replacement.

 

Pressly is going to regress. Great trade!

Kep? Royce? Extend Buxton? We've got some options here...

 

Hopefully it is a great trade. No doubt Presley helps us way more now. To me, it was a curious move considering we've been pointing for this year. Ditto the boot comment about FA. Good FA almost always require more years than you want to have them. Why not utilize those best years for the entire length of your window?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well, I disagree. If you need food today, but trade away food for penny stocks, you starve. IF the penny stocks turn into Apple 4 years from now, I'm sure that will be great comfort to your heirs, but those stocks won't bring you back from the grave. And that's only IF the penny stocks turn out to be valuable, which isnt the case for most penny stocks.

 

So Ryan Pressley himself is the fine line between death (starving) and life.  Which I assume means Ryan Pressley alone separates us from being a winner or a loser.  If not, this analogy is nonsense and doesn't work.

 

Assuming you mean it to work.....that's.  Wow.  You're pretty far from reality if that's the case.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Obviously more teams will come to the party at the trade deadline, but the board is screaming for action now. No idea who's available, I listed 3 players we don't need at this point in time, that have a least some trade value. Times are a changin'. I'd get on the phone today.

Offering to trade surplus players in mid-April is a pretty poor/unrealistic way to acquire talent.

 

Which is why maybe signing a free agent isn't always a bad alternative.

[Mike Sixel]

So Ryan Pressley himself is the fine line between death (starving) and life. Which I assume means Ryan Pressley alone separates us from being a winner or a loser. If not, this analogy is nonsense and doesn't work.

 

Assuming you mean it to work.....that's. Wow. You're pretty far from reality if that's the case.

Pretty sure you are both exaggerating at this point....

[TheLeviathan]

Pretty sure you are both exaggerating at this point....

Given Chief's repeated declarations, I don't think it's an exaggeration at all. Do you think it's at all reasonable to declare that deal a loss even if Alcala became a hall of famer?

[howieramone2]

 

Offering to trade surplus players in mid-April is a pretty poor/unrealistic way to acquire talent.

 

Which is why maybe signing a free agent isn't always a bad alternative.

Times are a changin'. Free agency in the past 2 years, only one trade deadline this year, the massive number of extensions.   Many teams in some form of rebuild or heaven forbid tanking. I'd get on the phone today.

 

Signing a free agent is always a bad alternative, but sometimes a necessary evil.

[yarnivek1972]

So what is the proverbial line in the sand for Kimbrel? Or Kuechel for that matter.

 

Years and dollars. What is as high as you would go, given the Twins finances?

 

I would go 3, 40 for Kimbrel. With Kuechel I would go 2, 35 with a vesting option based on IP.

[TheLeviathan]

There is no reason we can't offer 3 years/33M right now and see who blinks first.

[USAFChief]

Given Chief's repeated declarations, I don't think it's an exaggeration at all. Do you think it's at all reasonable to declare that deal a loss even if Alcala became a hall of famer?

It was a bad trade, even if Alcala turns into a hall of famer.

 

The odds of that are so remote as to be irrelevant to the discussion. And I don't care if he does. The important point is the value of something in hand and really needed today, vs the value of something remotely possible to be more valuable years from now.

 

You haven't answered...would you trade Alcala and Celestino for Pressly today?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Given Chief's repeated declarations, I don't think it's an exaggeration at all. Do you think it's at all reasonable to declare that deal a loss even if Alcala became a hall of famer?

 

that wasn't what you quoted......of course not, but that wasn't what you quoted. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

It was a bad trade, even if Alcala turns into a hall of famer.

The odds of that are so remote as to be irrelevant to the discussion. And I don't care if he does. The important point is the value of something in hand and really needed today, vs the value of something remotely possible to be more valuable years from now.

You haven't answered...would you trade Alcala and Celestino for Pressly today?

 

Yes I would make that deal, but that doesn't mean the trade is a for sure loser.  That means right now they've got the advantage.  But the story is not told on that trade and won't be for awhile.  

 

You eat meals now and in a week.  I don't know about you but I don't do my grocery shopping with only the immediate in mind.  Nor should any GM sound of mind with a sports franchise.  You balance the needs of the immediate and the long-term or you destroy both.

 

The Twins had ways they could have addressed Pressley's absence this offseason.  That's the failure.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

that wasn't what you quoted......of course not, but that wasn't what you quoted. 

 

It was an analogy meant to justify that claim.  It's a bad analogy for an unreasonable position.

[USAFChief]

that wasn't what you quoted......of course not, but that wasn't what you quoted.

Levi always...enhances...the other persons point, but in this case, he is correct. I won't change my opinion even if Alcala is elected to the HOF in 2046.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Levi always...enhances...the other persons point, but in this case, he is correct. I won't change my opinion even if Alcala is elected to the HOF in 2046.

 

to your point though, the odds of that are not even calculable they are so low......so it's a bad question. Just as your stance is, imo, that if he's one of the 50 best pitchers ever it was a bad deal......

 

The Twins need RP badly. Last year and this year count, in terms of judging the trade. If you believe in Buxton and Berrios and Gibson, then making deals that hurt 2019 are not good ideas, especially if you don't fix the hole you create going into 2019 in any way. 

 

I would be a lot more ok with the trade if the team did anything to improve the RP for this year, going into this year.......but apparently there were no good FA RPs available, and none in all of baseball worth trading for.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm more than willing to say the odds of the trade working out are smaller for the Twins than the Astros.  Maybe even significantly so.  Impossible is unreasonable, however.