So....Time to make a call to Kimbrel?

[Vanimal46]

It's a missed opportunity not to sign more pitching help last off-season... This division is so freaking weak that the Twins will be contenders until the end. And the pitching will hold them back from doing something about it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You have a point about the starting pitching. My mindset was that they would need to sign a Mortonsen / Happ type free agent SPs because anything less was not going to get us into contention but you are right that 2 Odorizzi's would not cost in excess of $25M.

Nice try, but that doesn't just limit us to Odorizzi's. Gibson and Pineda probably won't cost more than $25 mil combined either, even if they have solid 2019 seasons.

 

 

I think Rogers will get a decent bump if he continues to perform close to as he has the last half of 18 and the start of this year.

What do you mean by "decent bump"? I feel like your vagueness is exaggerating the effect of these raises. Judging by the history of middle relievers in arbitration, I think Rogers is pretty much capped at $3 mil next year even if he's one of the best relievers in baseball, unless he gets some saves soon. Which would be a $1.5 mil bump over 2019, but isn't going to change the calculus much here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think we need to sign two free Agent SPs to replace the exiting 3 SPs and they will be more expensive than the existing options if they are going to be good enough for us to contend.  

Then signing Keuchel at 3/45 now could be considered offsetting the anticipated loss/replacement of Odorizzi. That AAV is only $5.5 mil more than Odorizzi's current salary.

 

 

I did forget about Reed but they will have to spend money in the BP.

Or signing Kimbrel at 3/45 now could be considered offsetting the anticipated loss/replacement of Reed. That AAV is only $6.5 mil more than Reed's current salary.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess I just happen to agree with the 30 GMs who have felt that the cost and risk associated with Kimbrell could be better placed elsewhere.

So did the Twins screw up when they disagreed with the 29 GMs who felt that the cost and risk associated with Marwin Gonzalez could be better placed elsewhere? This isn't a good line of argument.

 

To the extent that teams have passed on Kimbrel to date, that was primarily when Kimbrel was still asking for $100 mil. And some of those teams moved on at that point to invest in other significant pitchers. 30 GMs haven't really passed on Kimbrel at 3/45. Same for Keuchel.

 

And of course, for BOS, NYY, CHC, LAD, and WAS, 3/45 would still cost more than 3/45 due to luxury tax penalties. (And NYM, HOU, PHI, and LAA would be right up against the luxury tax threshold after signing that contract, potentially putting them over at the trade deadline.)

 

Beyond that, there's also a lot of teams that Kimbrel and Keuchel don't want to sign with, regardless of their willingness to offer 3/45.

 

I know the Twins have some limitations in terms of revenue, but we also have a few competitive advantages right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's tricky. I generally hate big money contracts for relievers, but it's hard to deny that a few have been really good -- Andrew Miller at 4/36, for instance, and he was fantastic through age 32. There are a few red flags about Kimbrel -- going unsigned this long, obviously, and his BB rate last year (already reflected in his FIP/fWAR), his rough 2018 postseason -- but there's also some real potential there too. Potential that the Twins could use immediately, and risk that wouldn't break the Twins on a Britton/Davis type contract.

 

Same with Keuchel as a starter, I guess, subbing his contact/groundball style for the more generic reliever concerns.

 

Looking ahead, I think the Twins could be fortunate to land those kinds of players as rentals at the 2019 deadline. So it stands to reason we'd probably be equally fortunate to land them in April 2019, with virtually zero prospect cost, in exchange for extra cash (which comes along with their 2020-2021 services too).

[ashbury]

So did the Twins screw up when they disagreed with the 29 GMs who felt that the cost and risk associated with Marwin Gonzalez could be better placed elsewhere? This isn't a good line of argument.

I was and remain unconvinced that Marwin Gonzalez's signing is a hill anyone should die on.

[nicksaviking]

 

In all seriousness, you look at what Keuchel has done at the major league level, and think Stewart will do that this year? It's possible, but likely? Because if you think so, then you think he's better than all but one or two of the current pitchers on this roster....

 

No, I just think committing a long leash to a guy who can't strike anyone out and will be making the team's worst two fielders make the most outs is a terrible idea. And yes I'm serious, I'd rather give Stewart a shot. And Romero and Thorpe. I'd rather see Gonsavles again. I have little faith in groundball artists and I have even less in pitchers signing this late in the year.

 

Teams are devaluing two-seam fastballs and it's clear by seeing how long it's taken Keuchel, Lynn, Cobb and Arrieta to get jobs the last two years. There's no way it's a coincidence that it's sinkerballers that aren't getting extended and aren't getting calls on the free agent market. The Twins have turned up the emphasis on strikeouts; it's no surprise to me that they haven't been tied to this guy at all. He's a big name, but he's not a good fit.

 

I'm not against signing free agents, I'm just against signing this one.

[Major League Ready]

 

Nice try, but that doesn't just limit us to Odorizzi's. Gibson and Pineda probably won't cost more than $25 mil combined either, even if they have solid 2019 seasons.

 

 

What do you mean by "decent bump"? I feel like your vagueness is exaggerating the effect of these raises. Judging by the history of middle relievers in arbitration, I think Rogers is pretty much capped at $3 mil next year even if he's one of the best relievers in baseball, unless he gets some saves soon. Which would be a $1.5 mil bump over 2019, but isn't going to change the calculus much here.

 

Odorizzi / Gibson and Pineda cost a combined 23.625M this year. The 3 of them cost another $10M as FAs if they meet expectations this year and could be a little more than that if Gibson repeats last year and Pineda meets expectations.  Having said this, I think you are still ignoring my point that part of the gap in our thinking is that I think it takes at least one guy that is a solid 2.  I don't even know if we can come up with one but if we do the total dollars associated with SP jumps.  You also ignored my question of which SP prospect is likely to be better than the mediocre SPs( Berrios excluded) we have now and which position players are going to be upgrades over Cron and Schoop?  This still ignores the Twins will likely also need to invest in a BP arm or two.

 

We simply disagree on the likelihood of upgrades coming from within next year. The guys that will make a difference are 2021 or 2nd half of 2020 IMO. I hope I am not only wrong but way off in this opinion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think you are still ignoring my point that part of the gap in our thinking is that I think it takes at least one guy that is a solid 2.  I don't even know if we can come up with one but if we do the total dollars associated with SP jumps.  You also ignored my question of which SP prospect is likely to be better than the mediocre SPs( Berrios excluded) we have now and which position players are going to be upgrades over Cron and Schoop?  This still ignores the Twins will likely also need to invest in a BP arm or two.

 

We simply disagree on the likelihood of upgrades coming from within next year. The guys that will make a difference are 2021 or 2nd half of 2020 IMO. I hope I am not only wrong but way off in this opinion.

Yes, I listed some minor leaguers, but I wasn't necessarily counting on them within the next year. I don't think that's the gap in our thinking.

 

I think the gap is that you're speaking pretty vaguely, perhaps over-estimating the salary increases coming to a guy like Rogers, and after missing Reed entirely in your initial post, you're now missing the Reed-Kimbrel connection -- if we "need to invest in a BP arm or two" to replace Reed, thus not freeing his $8.5 mil salary, why not count that toward sign Kimbrel? If he's really available for 3/45. We can capture some 2019 benefit too, and we'd have him off the books by the end of 2021, making it easier to sign/extend others with a little backloading if we wanted to do so.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, I just think committing a long leash to a guy who can't strike anyone out and will be making the team's worst two fielders make the most outs is a terrible idea. And yes I'm serious, I'd rather give Stewart a shot. And Romero and Thorpe. I'd rather see Gonsavles again. I have little faith in groundball artists and I have even less in pitchers signing this late in the year.

 

Teams are devaluing two-seam fastballs and it's clear by seeing how long it's taken Keuchel, Lynn, Cobb and Arrieta to get jobs the last two years. There's no way it's a coincidence that it's sinkerballers that aren't getting extended and aren't getting calls on the free agent market. The Twins have turned up the emphasis on strikeouts; it's no surprise to me that they haven't been tied to this guy at all. He's a big name, but he's not a good fit.

 

I'm not against signing free agents, I'm just against signing this one.

 

Well, he's the only Sp FA left for this year, so if they are going to improve they'll need someone (or three) in the minors to be good, or to trade prospects for MLB players (which we are still waiting to happen in a big or even medium way in MN's MLB history).

 

And, next year's FA class isn't sparkling, so I assume we'll just have the same conversation again next year when they don't spend on pitching.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, keep in mind, when looking at 2019 payroll, that we willingly front-loaded Kepler and Polanco by about $6 mil this year. Not that there's anything wrong with that strategy, but I think it makes it a little easier / more understandable to wind up a little over-budget, if we see an opportunity to add talent to what looks like a competitive squad.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Also, keep in mind, when looking at 2019 payroll, that we willingly front-loaded Kepler and Polanco by about $6 mil this year. Not that there's anything wrong with that strategy, but I think it makes it a little easier / more understandable to wind up a little over-budget, if we see an opportunity to add talent to what looks like a competitive squad.

 

OTOH, it's a great talking point for the business to say why it's not spending more to win more.....which we all know is important, based on what teams actually say about flexibility (which they rarely use, see ATL).

[nicksaviking]

 

OTOH, it's a great talking point for the business to say why it's not spending more to win more.....which we all know is important, based on what teams actually say about flexibility (which they rarely use, see ATL).

 

But it's not just a talking point, there rarely are any good free agent starting pitchers any more. Teams are extending the good ones and teams are getting smarter about recognizing the ones that make it to market but appear to be more smoke and mirrors.

 

I don't want to sign someone just to sign someone. I don't think Keuchel would be any good on the Twins, so to me it would appear to be window dressing only. The good teams are developing and extending their own starters these days, it's incumbent that the Twins start doing the same.

[USAFChief]

 

But it's not just a talking point, there rarely are any good free agent starting pitchers any more. Teams are extending the good ones and teams are getting smarter about recognizing the ones that make it to market but appear to be more smoke and mirrors.

 

I don't want to sign someone just to sign someone. I don't think Keuchel would be any good on the Twins, so to me it would appear to be window dressing only. The good teams are developing and extending their own starters these days, it's incumbent that the Twins start doing the same.

I think Keuchel, while not the pitcher he was a few years ago, unquestionably would make the Twins better in 2019. But I doubt he's signing a one year deal, and I don't want the Twins to be stuck in a contract, so I'd pass.

 

On the other hand, it's a matter of time before someone gives Kimbrel a 3 yr deal, and I think the Twins should be all over that. There's a real window of opportunity here for the Twins, jump on it.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think Keuchel, while not the pitcher he was a few years ago, unquestionably would make the Twins better in 2019. But I doubt he's signing a one year deal, and I don't want the Twins to be stuck in a contract, so I'd pass.

 

On the other hand, it's a matter of time before someone gives Kimbrel a 3 yr deal, and I think the Twins should be all over that. There's a real window of opportunity here for the Twins, jump on it.

 

Yeah, I'd like Kimbrel. Unlike starters there's way more recent examples of relievers pitching to satisfaction well into their 30's. Unless there's some kind of medical red flags we aren't seeing, I don't think the floor is real low with a big armed reliever. 

 

Also, if you're giving up a draft pick, why would you only want a guy for 1 year anyway? Three is fine.

[Mike Sixel]

 

But it's not just a talking point, there rarely are any good free agent starting pitchers any more. Teams are extending the good ones and teams are getting smarter about recognizing the ones that make it to market but appear to be more smoke and mirrors.

 

I don't want to sign someone just to sign someone. I don't think Keuchel would be any good on the Twins, so to me it would appear to be window dressing only. The good teams are developing and extending their own starters these days, it's incumbent that the Twins start doing the same.

 

Of course it's a talking point. They are saying it all the time, all across the league. 

 

And, yup, there aren't many good SP FAs, it's why a team that wants to compete should, you know, sign the rare ones that show up.....instead of always finding a reason not to.

 

Or, the Twins could suddenly find 4 pitchers next year in their current system, on top of Berrios (and, 3-4 more as backups).

[Mr. Brooks]

Of course it's a talking point. They are saying it all the time, all across the league.

 

And, yup, there aren't many good SP FAs, it's why a team that wants to compete should, you know, sign the rare ones that show up.....instead of always finding a reason not to.

 

Or, the Twins could suddenly find 4 pitchers next year in their current system, on top of Berrios (and, 3-4 more as backups).

Mike, I think the concern that Kuechel would even be an upgrade right now is legitimate.

His k rate is falling, he's had injuries, and didn't have a ST.

Every team always needs starting pitching, and yet there he sits, even though his people leaked that he's willing to take 1/19m. That's very telling to me.

Last year, the general consensus when we signed Lynn was: "He's not Darvish, and he's not as good as he used to be, but he's still a pretty clear upgrade."

Nope, he wasn't.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, I think the concern that Kuechel would even be an upgrade right now is legitimate.
His k rate is falling, he's had injuries, and didn't have a ST.
Every team always needs starting pitching, and yet there he sits, even though his people leaked that he's willing to take 1/19m. That's very telling to me.
Last year, the general consensus when we signed Lynn was: "He's not Darvish, and he's not as good as he used to be, but he's still a pretty clear upgrade."
Nope, he wasn't.

 

I wanted Darvish, who is pitching better as this year goes on....you know, the expensive, actually good, starting pitcher. To my point......sign the actually good pitchers.

 

Of course it's ok to think Keuchel isn't any good any more.....but to suggest Stewart will be as good as him this year? Or next? 

 

The Twins have 1 starting pitcher for next year they can trust. One. Where do people think 6-7 more are going to come from? Heck, three?

[Mike Sixel]

snowman: who are the top SP trade candidates this season?
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MadBum for sure, Duffy if he ever shows a pulse, I think Dylan Bundy ends up somewhere

 

snowman: stroman?
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Stroman has to be a good candidate too

[h2oface]

Somebody is going to get a 3 year deal for Kimbrel. I hope it is the Twins.

[nicksaviking]

I wanted Darvish, who is pitching better as this year goes on....you know, the expensive, actually good, starting pitcher. To my point......sign the actually good pitchers.

 

Of course it's ok to think Keuchel isn't any good any more.....but to suggest Stewart will be as good as him this year? Or next?

 

The Twins have 1 starting pitcher for next year they can trust. One. Where do people think 6-7 more are going to come from? Heck, three?

I wanted Darvish. He has/had good velocity, plus breaking pitches and a history of strong strikeout rates. I don’t want Keuchel, he has none of those, I don’t know why we can’t evaluate free agent on a deeper dive than desired contract.

[nicksaviking]

Somebody is going to get a 3 year deal for Kimbrel. I hope it is the Twins.

Me too. At this point I might suspect it will be after the June draft which may bring in more budders.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Me too. At this point I might suspect it will be after the June draft which may bring in more budders.

I don't know, that might be cutting it too fine. He's already missed the start of the season. If he doesn't sign until June, a team would really have to compress his ramping up period, and they'd carry a lot more uncertainty going into the trade deadline.

[Mr. Brooks]

I wanted Darvish, who is pitching better as this year goes on....you know, the expensive, actually good, starting pitcher. To my point......sign the actually good pitchers.

 

Of course it's ok to think Keuchel isn't any good any more.....but to suggest Stewart will be as good as him this year? Or next?

 

The Twins have 1 starting pitcher for next year they can trust. One. Where do people think 6-7 more are going to come from? Heck, three?

If the Twins have evaluated him as not being very good moving forward, then it doesn't make sense to sign him just because they have to sign someone.

I don't know, today, where the rest of their 2020 rotation is going to come from. But I don't think the answer is just to desperately sign someone just because they are available.

 

I have no idea if Kuechel is cooked or if he can still be good. I'm just saying that it's a legitimate possibility that the FO has evaluated him, and determined that he's not much of an upgrade. If they are making independent evaluations and sticking with them, that makes me happy.

If they evaluate him as being good, and are just afraid of the money or draft pick, then sure, that's disappointing. But, for now I'm going to consider the possibility that they just don't like him as an upgrade.

[Mike Sixel]

If the Twins have evaluated him as not being very good moving forward, then it doesn't make sense to sign him just because they have to sign someone.

I don't know, today, where the rest of their 2020 rotation is going to come from. But I don't think the answer is just to desperately sign someone just because they are available.

 

I have no idea if Kuechel is cooked or if he can still be good. I'm just saying that it's a legitimate possibility that the FO has evaluated him, and determined that he's not much of an upgrade. If they are making independent evaluations and sticking with them, that makes me happy.

If they evaluate him as being good, and are just afraid of the money or draft pick, then sure, that's disappointing. But, for now I'm going to consider the possibility that they just don't like him as an upgrade.

All fair, but I bet he's better than the guy they did sign.

[Mr. Brooks]

All fair, but I bet he's better than the guy they did sign.

Maybe, but they also have a budget.

We can debate whether they should have one, or if it should be bigger, but that's not productive to this conversation.

As long as the FO is given a budget, they have to factor salary into their decisions, as much as you may dislike it.

[Jham]

What would you give up to get Pressley back? Never should have traded him. Find it unlikely the FO will pay way more for Kimbrel when they just traded Pressley. This way, it's not so obvious they screwed up.

[Mr. Brooks]

What would you give up to get Pressley back? Never should have traded him. Find it unlikely the FO will pay way more for Kimbrel when they just traded Pressley. This way, it's not so obvious they screwed up.

I don't follow your logic.

Wouldn't it be more obvious by NOT signing him, since it makes that spot even more glaring without a replacement?

 

Doesn't the fact that you figured it out, make it self evident that not signing him made it more obvious?

[Jham]

I don't follow your logic.

Wouldn't it be more obvious by NOT signing him, since it makes that spot even more glaring without a replacement?

 

Doesn't the fact that you figured it out, make it self evident that not signing him made it more obvious?

You of all posters should know how difficult it is for people to admit they're wrong.

 

My point is that what may be obvious to everyone else might not be obvious to the front office. Pride gets in the way.

 

As of now they can talk about the prospects in return, the uncertainty of resigning him etc. But signing Kimbrel for 2 or 3x Pressley's extension is basically the same as an admission they screwed up. Admissions are always more obvious than omissions.

[Mr. Brooks]

You of all posters should know how difficult it is for people to admit they're wrong.

 

My point is that what may be obvious to everyone else might not be obvious to the front office. Pride gets in the way.

 

As of now they can talk about the prospects in return, the uncertainty of resigning him etc. But signing Kimbrel for 2 or 3x Pressley's extension is basically the same as an admission they screwed up. Admissions are always more obvious than omissions.

Well it's far too early to even know if they were wrong.

The trade clearly was never intended to help us in 2019. I'm willing to see what kind of fruit this trade bears before I declare that we lost the trade.