So....Time to make a call to Kimbrel?

[howieramone2]

 

But it's not like we had a good pen to begin with. Keep in mind, Rogers hadn't even had his dominant run yet. Rodney may have been our second best reliever after Pressly.

We already needed to add another reliever (and hope they turned out) *before* we traded Pressly. After that, then we needed to add two.

And we didn't have unlimited payroll space to do it, considering the other holes we had to address (2B, 1B, DH, maybe 3B, SP).

That's kind of a big gamble just to get two 40 FV prospects who probably won't contribute until 2020, if ever.

When we traded Pressly we didn't have all those other holes. Mauer retired later, we DH by committee, and Sano was guaranteed 3B. None of those things even needed to be taken into consideration. Our payroll was as unlimited as it ever was.

[Otto von Ballpark]

When we traded Pressly we didn't have all those other holes. Mauer retired later, we DH by committee, and Sano was guaranteed 3B. None of those things even needed to be taken into consideration. Our payroll was as unlimited as it ever was.

So we can look 2 months ahead to count on signing a Pressly replacement when evaluating this trade, but we couldn't look 2 months ahead to even think about pending free agents Mauer, Dozier, Lynn, Morrison, or Escobar. Got it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But it's not like we had a good pen to begin with. Keep in mind, Rogers hadn't even had his dominant run yet. Rodney may have been our second best reliever after Pressly.

 

We already needed to add another reliever (and hope they turned out) *before* we traded Pressly. After that, then we needed to add two.

 

And we didn't have unlimited payroll space to do it, considering the other holes we had to address (2B, 1B, DH, maybe 3B, SP).

 

That's kind of a big gamble just to get two 40 FV prospects who probably won't contribute until 2020, if ever.

Relievers were readily available this offseason and the team entered 2019 with a lower payroll than 2018.

 

Frankly, I consider that pretty unacceptable.

[nicksaviking]

Relievers were readily available this offseason and the team entered 2019 with a lower payroll than 2018.

Frankly, I consider that pretty unacceptable.

I wanted the team to load up on relievers this offseason and I’m still not happy they didn’t. But at this point I’m going to have to hold my tongue. As a whole, wow, this free agent reliever crop has been miserable. I’m sure plenty will rebound to make the signings look decent but at this time they are nearly all making their respective team’s fans as upset as we are with Mejia and company.

[Mike Sixel]

I would rather trade for somebody than sign Kimbrel. At this point the amount of time it would take Kimbrel to get ready, he would have a negligible impact on the roster.

No one is making a trade for a couple months. Kimbrel will be ready way faster.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wanted the team to load up on relievers this offseason and I’m still not happy they didn’t. But at this point I’m going to have to hold my tongue. As a whole, wow, this free agent reliever crop has been miserable. I’m sure plenty will rebound to make the signings look decent but at this time they are nearly all making their respective team’s fans as upset as we are with Mejia and company.

True.

[Riverbrian]

 

I wanted the team to load up on relievers this offseason and I’m still not happy they didn’t. But at this point I’m going to have to hold my tongue. As a whole, wow, this free agent reliever crop has been miserable. I’m sure plenty will rebound to make the signings look decent but at this time they are nearly all making their respective team’s fans as upset as we are with Mejia and company.

 

I share your concern. I've been asking for the Twins to get "Bullpen Serious" for awhile now. 

 

However... Fine... OK... If you are not going to grab some FA's then you got to find out what the kids can do during a lost season and we were throwing Belisle into 25 games that could have been used to see what someone with a future could do. And now we are looking at Burdi and Anderson looking quite impressive elsewhere. 

 

I'm almost so pissed about Belisle wasting our future time and space... that I have no strength left to be mad about the off-season bullpen efforts. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I share your concern. I've been asking for the Twins to get "Bullpen Serious" for awhile now.

 

However... Fine... OK... If you are not going to grab some FA's then you got to find out what the kids can do during a lost season and we were throwing Belisle into 25 games that could have been used to see what someone with a future could do. And now we are looking at Burdi and Anderson looking quite impressive elsewhere.

 

I'm almost so pissed about Belisle wasting our future time and space... that I have no strength left to be mad about the off-season bullpen efforts.

All correct. Last year was badly managed from a learning perspective.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Relievers were readily available this offseason and the team entered 2019 with a lower payroll than 2018.

Frankly, I consider that pretty unacceptable.

I'm not trying to make excuses for them, but they're only $9 mil below last year's (record) payroll. That's not a lot to work with, to make a splash in the pen.

 

They had a lot of money to work with at the beginning of the offseason, but they also had a lot of positions to fill, plus some extensions to get done. They arguably already went cheap on their rotation addition. Without the benefit of hindsight, it might be hard to make that all work and include meaningful bullpen upgrades too.

 

It undoubtedly would have been much easier with a potentially dominant Pressly already under contract at only $2.9 mil. I have the feeling that Alcala's going to have to turn out pretty darn good in order to justify that kind of gamble from a midmarket team with contending aspirations.

[Riverbrian]

 

All correct. Last year was badly managed from a learning perspective.

 

Badly is too kind. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here are the FA RP signings from last offseason:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-aav__sort_direction-0__positions-rp__status-1

 

Without the benefit of hindsight, I'd much rather have Pressly at $2.9 mil and only need to add one name from that list, rather than push all my chips in on two of those FA.

[USAFChief]

As I've said...if you had any idea of competing in 2019, trading Pressly was a bad idea.

 

"Just backfill in the offseason" was always going to be tough, and you likely weren't going to get someone with Pressly's arm anyway.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not trying to make excuses for them, but they're only $9 mil below last year's (record) payroll. That's not a lot to work with, to make a splash in the pen.

 

They had a lot of money to work with at the beginning of the offseason, but they also had a lot of positions to fill, plus some extensions to get done. They arguably already went cheap on their rotation addition. Without the benefit of hindsight, it might be hard to make that all work and include meaningful bullpen upgrades too.

 

It undoubtedly would have been much easier with a potentially dominant Pressly already under contract at only $2.9 mil. I have the feeling that Alcala's going to have to turn out pretty darn good in order to justify that kind of gamble from a midmarket team with contending aspirations.

Or they could have spent even more. It's not like revenues are rising slower than payroll....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Or they could have spent even more. It's not like revenues are rising slower than payroll....

Sure. Although even if they are willing to spend more, it's still harder to sign two new good relievers than one. It's also riskier / less flexible if your top two relievers are both making $10+ mil, as opposed to having one of them making only $2.9 mil.

 

Even a team that spends more -- like the Astros -- is going to derive benefits from having a good reliever under control at $2.9 mil over a comparable FA reliever making $10+ mil. (Both money to allocate elsewhere this year, plus more leverage to negotiate a team-friendly extension too.)

[TheLeviathan]

 

As I've said...if you had any idea of competing in 2019, trading Pressly was a bad idea.

"Just backfill in the offseason" was always going to be tough, and you likely weren't going to get someone with Pressly's arm anyway.

 

My offseason plan had us signing Cody Allen and Kelvin Herrera for about 2 years 20M each.  How would you feel about the bullpen right now in that hypothetical?

[Mike Sixel]

Sure. Although even if they are willing to spend more, it's still harder to sign two new good relievers than one. It's also riskier / less flexible if your top two relievers are both making $10+ mil, as opposed to having one of them making only $2.9 mil.

 

Even a team that spends more -- like the Astros -- is going to derive benefits from having a good reliever under control at $2.9 mil over a comparable FA reliever making $10+ mil. (Both money to allocate elsewhere this year, plus more leverage to negotiate a team-friendly extension too.)

Oh, agreed. But once they traded him, then they should have filled that hole.

 

As for some saying there are inconsistencies between stances her and Gibson..... If you are not trying to win, trade assets, especially those in their last contract year. If you are trying to win, don't trade assets under control for next year, unless those assets are going to help in the next year.... It's a very consistent stance, which the Twins don't seem to have.

 

As for, the RP FA are bad stance.... Compared to the backend of this bullpen?

[SouthSideBilly]

Team is fine as is, FIRST PLACE! Keep it, Kimbrel is a waste of money and not needed!!!GO TWINS!

 

-SouthSide Billy

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My offseason plan had us signing Cody Allen and Kelvin Herrera for about 2 years 20M each.  How would you feel about the bullpen right now in that hypothetical?

I don't know. It's still early, but Allen has a 8.69 FIP in 9 games for the Angels, and his K% has dropped by 5% in each of the last two years.

 

Kind of highlights the risks of trying to find two FA bullpen arms in the same offseason. It's not clear you'll actually get two quality arms that way, plus their high salaries will likely compel you to give them a long leash, and gives you fewer resources to make another move later if necessary.

 

That's all part of the value of keeping Pressly around at $2.9 mil.

[USAFChief]

 

My offseason plan had us signing Cody Allen and Kelvin Herrera for about 2 years 20M each.  How would you feel about the bullpen right now in that hypothetical?

It would still have been a bad trade. A bad trade is a bad trade, no matter how much lipstick you put on it later. Nor would Alcala being a worthwhile starter somewhere down the future change my opinion, since you couldn't know that at the time of the trade, but you absolutely, positively should have known the value of an arm like Pressly's to the 2019 Twins.

 

And, uh, we didn't sign Herrera and Allen, as I recall. Nor would we have signed Cruz or Gonzalez if we had.

 

I guess I'll reconsider if Falvine can flip Alcala and Celestin this week for a reliever better than Pressly, plus a minor league prospect to make up for the time Pressly wasn't a Twin. 

 

Of course, that's not going to happen, since nobody will trade a reliever better than Pressly for Celestin and Alcala, even if such a reliever was hypothetically available.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It would still have been a bad trade.

 

That's not at all what I asked so I'll ignore all of the rest of that.  I don't want to rehash that discussion, hence my question.  In a hypothetical where we signed those two, how do you feel today about the bullpen?

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

Kind of highlights the risks of trying to find two FA bullpen arms in the same offseason. It's not clear you'll actually get two quality arms that way, plus their high salaries will likely compel you to give them a long leash, and gives you fewer resources to make another move later if necessary./

 

Banking on any reliever is a fickle game, that's been said by Brock and others and ignored by you.  It's part of the equation no matter what you'd have preferred happened.

 

I don't accept the excuse that this team couldn't have afforded the exact same things it did this offseason and still spend another 10-20M on the bullpen.  Especially since, if you wanted to keep Pressly past this year, you probably would've had to extend him just like Houston did and he'd be on the hook for about the same money.  (But better than Allen and Herrera, certainly.  Maybe.  Probably? Those guys are fickle remember?)

[jmlease1]

Does anybody know what it would actually take to get Kimbrel? Because I hear a lot of "baseball free agency is a joke if Kimbrel can't get a deal" or a various numbers that sound like they were grabbed from the top of BS Mountain.

 

Kimbrel reportedly will take a 1 year deal. For how much? $20M? $15M? No one seems to know. Will he take a 1 year deal anywhere, or only select teams? No one seems to know.

 

Are teams waiting until the draft pick compensation date expires? (seem possible?)

 

Is Kimbrel waiting until the playoff picture starts to clear up? (seems possible, but no one seems to know.)

 

I hear a lot of "it's a travesty that the FO hasn't acted!", but I never seem to hear any info with real sources and backing behind it. Hell, Barreiro was claiming the Twins should just get it done by offering 3 years and $42M yesterday. But I've never heard anything to suggest Kimbrel is interested in that kind of deal.

 

This is all starting to feel like Latrell "I've got to feed my family" Sprewell territory...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Does anybody know what it would actually take to get Kimbrel? Because I hear a lot of "baseball free agency is a joke if Kimbrel can't get a deal" or a various numbers that sound like they were grabbed from the top of BS Mountain.

 

Kimbrel reportedly will take a 1 year deal. For how much? $20M? $15M? No one seems to know. Will he take a 1 year deal anywhere, or only select teams? No one seems to know.

 

Are teams waiting until the draft pick compensation date expires? (seem possible?)

 

Is Kimbrel waiting until the playoff picture starts to clear up? (seems possible, but no one seems to know.)

 

I hear a lot of "it's a travesty that the FO hasn't acted!", but I never seem to hear any info with real sources and backing behind it. Hell, Barreiro was claiming the Twins should just get it done by offering 3 years and $42M yesterday. But I've never heard anything to suggest Kimbrel is interested in that kind of deal.

 

This is all starting to feel like Latrell "I've got to feed my family" Sprewell territory...

 

Of course, at the beginning of the off season, more than just Kimbrell was available.....

[h2oface]

I think they should sign Kimbrel for a ridiculous one year contract, something that doesn't tie us down and really commit, but something he just can't refuse, and then when he is in full form at the deadline, trade high for some midling prospects. He could bring like two or three......you know, the ol' "sell high" thing. It's the thing, you know. We need more midling prospects to plug into our farm that plug right in at about the #15-18 range. And you never know.... one day, sometime, maybe, in the future if they don't get hurt, or stall, or get suspended, or regress..... they could be as good as Kimbrel, and we could bring them up and see if they could be a MLB pitcher. If they prove not ready after that 2 or 3 years, we could just send them down for more seasoning, and then try again. And repeat that process for a couple years..... then maybe...... just maybe............................

 

And if they don't make it, what the hell..... it was still fun writing and reading about them while they lasted in the minors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Banking on any reliever is a fickle game, that's been said by Brock and others and ignored by you. It's part of the equation no matter what you'd have preferred happened.

I don't know why you think I am ignoring it -- I've said as much several times. And it follows that guaranteeing a fickle reliever $10-20 mil is riskier than $2.9 mil, giving you less margin for error, less flexibility, etc. These are real costs to the Pressly deal, even if you wanted to turn around and sign a FA replacement. And it's not clear yet to me that Alcala was worth those costs.

[VATwinsFan]

The Twins could've gotten Hector Rondon last year for half of what they are paying Addison Reed.  Not that I thought Reed was a bad signing at the time, but letting Rondon get away was severe GM malpractice.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't know why you think I am ignoring it -- I've said as much several times. And it follows that guaranteeing a fickle reliever $10-20 mil is riskier than $2.9 mil, giving you less margin for error, less flexibility, etc. These are real costs to the Pressly deal, even if you wanted to turn around and sign a FA replacement. And it's not clear yet to me that Alcala was worth those costs.

 

It's not clear to me either!  I'm the one advocating that exact thing!!!!

 

Every transaction, even the ones you don't do, have costs.  At no point did I argue that dealing Pressly made 2019 anything other than more difficult.  But that doesn't change the fact that selling fickle assets, with limited team control, in seasons where you aren't doing jack squat is sound planning.  I will advocate it 100 out of 100 times.

 

Whether that particular transaction turns out to be a net win, is one I can't declare yet.  If, in five years, it's abundantly clear we got squat out of that deal - hell yeah it's a loser.  But the mentality behind what you're dealing, when you're dealing it, and who you're dealing it for matters much more to me.  On the whole, those factors will go much farther in determining the outcomes for this franchise.

[USAFChief]

Keep Pressly AND add a couple arms.

Strong, deep bullpens are enormously valuable in today's baseball. They are tasked with 3 or more innings almost every night, and the better bullpen performance is often the deciding factor.

Quoted for truth.

[Jham]

Quoted for truth.

I saw us take an early lead and play even maybe the best team in the game until bull pens came into play. the difference in quality of relief was obvious.

[jorgenswest]

I find myself almost always agreeing with chief with the exception of the times I have been wrong.

 

If last night didn’t close the door on this debate I don’t think any more pages will change minds.

 

-Pressly was under team control for this year.

-Pressly would be the best reliever on the roster this year.

-The Twins really need good relievers.

-No one sees the return as something other than good prospects. Neither is special. Every organization has guys like this in their top 10 or 20.

 

They had a bird in hand and traded it for two in the bush. They should have kept the bird in hand.