Way too Early: Predict Opening Day Roster

[AZTwin]

C: Castro

1B: Cron

2B: Schoop

SS: Polanco

3B: Sano

RF: Kepler

CF: Buxton

LF: Rosario

DH: Cruz

 

Bench: Garver, Cave, Adrianza, Austin

 

SP: Berrios

SP: Gibson

SP: Odorozzi

SP: Perez

SP: Gonsalves

 

RP: May

RP: Reed

RP: Romero

RP: Parker

RP: Rogers

RP: hildenberger

RP: Vazquez

 

 

DL: Pineda

 

 

I really struggled for the last 2 spots on the roster. Ultimately went with Vazquez and Austin.

 

It’s going to be hard not to carry 13 pitchers. Mejia should have a spot on the team but Vazquez may be too hard to pass up. I went with Austin because he can provide some pop off the bench and a little more flexibility resting our core power hitters. I initially penciled in Austidillo and scratched him for Mejia before deciding on Austin.

 

Moya and Torreyes also received consideration but moya has options and Torreyes is to redundant of adrianza

[Squirrel]

 

C: Castro
1B: Cron
2B: Schoop
SS: Polanco
3B: Sano
RF: Kepler
CF: Buxton
LF: Rosario
DH: Cruz

Bench: Garver, Cave, Adrianza, Austin

SP: Berrios
SP: Gibson
SP: Odorozzi
SP: Perez
SP: Gonsalves

RP: May
RP: Reed
RP: Romero
RP: Parker
RP: Rogers
RP: hildenberger
RP: Vazquez


DL: Pineda


I really struggled for the last 2 spots on the roster. Ultimately went with Vazquez and Austin.

It’s going to be hard not to carry 13 pitchers. Mejia should have a spot on the team but Vazquez may be too hard to pass up. I went with Austin because he can provide some pop off the bench and a little more flexibility resting our core power hitters. I initially penciled in Austidillo and scratched him for Mejia before deciding on Austin.

Moya and Torreyes also received consideration but moya has options and Torreyes is to redundant of adrianza

I have no idea at this point how things will shake out, but kudos to you for trying. Do you really think Pineda will start on the DL? Maybe that's what the Perez signing was about ... Pineda not quite being ready? Or someone else not sure? But if Pineda is ready, look for Gonsalves to start in AAA. I think we'll lose Mejia if he's not on the roster. He's out of options and he will get claimed. I think it's a matter of who don't you want to lose more ... Mejia or Austin.

[AZTwin]

I have no idea at this point how things will shake out, but kudos to you for trying. Do you really think Pineda will start on the DL? Maybe that's what the Perez signing was about ... Pineda not quite being ready? Or someone else not sure? But if Pineda is ready, look for Gonsalves to start in AAA. I think we'll lose Mejia if he's not on the roster. He's out of options and he will get claimed. I think it's a matter of who don't you want to lose more ... Mejia or Austin.

Thought Mejia had an option yet. Then I might be inclined to keep Mejia over Vazquez. Keep Austin. If Pineda is healthy, Gonsalves goes to AAA.

[Squirrel]

 

Thought Mejia had an option yet. Then I might be inclined to keep Mejia over Vazquez. Keep Austin. If Pineda is healthy, Gonsalves goes to AAA.

Eh ... now I'm doubting myself ... but I'm pretty sure he's out of options. I just don't know what they are going to do with that last spot ... 4th bench person, 13th pitcher ... I have no clue. Personally I'd rather have the bench spot, but early in the season, it seems that more and more, teams want the pitchers available due to still stretching out in the early season and the cooler weather. Just don't know.

[Danchat]

It wouldn't be a bad idea to predict a pitcher ending up on the DL, that's just how things go. I believe Pineda is healthy at the moment, but I understand if you're predicting he gets hurt again. 

 

Mejia is indeed out of options and as was mentioned he'd get a spot over Vasquez. Also, I  think Moya will make the bullpen as the second lefty.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I saw a recent interview with Pineda. He says hes fully healthy. To me he looks out of shape, very heavy. tbh I doubt he holds up. When he goes down is what remains to be seen.

 

But as far as the OD squad looks, I'd switch out Mejia for either Vazquez or Gonsalves. The lineup looks right on. 

[ChrisKnutson]

While I prefer that Mejia stays a Twin, if he doesn’t make our roster, I really hope we don’t just let him go for nothing, at least flip him along with a couple of other expendable prospects (like Blankenhorn, Bechtold, Littell, etc) for an established reliver like Mychal Givens.

[ashbury]

While I prefer that Mejia stays a Twin, if he doesn’t make our roster, I really hope we don’t just let him go for nothing, at least flip him along with a couple of other expendable prospects (like Blankenhorn, Bechtold, Littell, etc) for an established reliver like Mychal Givens.

Which teams are looking to rid themselves of established players in exchange for expendable prospects? Asking for a friend who said he's asking for a friend.

[IndianaTwin]

With five days off in the first 15 days, I don't think Gonsalves makes the opening day roster unless at least two starters are on the DL. If all are healthy, it will be Berrios, Gibson, Odo, Pineda, Perez. If one is hurt, they should just go with four for the first two weeks. Frankly, even if all are healthy, I wouldn't mind finding a way to hold off Pineda's return a couple weeks. I think it will difficult for him to last the whole year, so a later start could be helpful.

 

And if two are hurt, I actually think Mejia gets a shot as a starter before Gonsalves.

[VATwinsFan]

I think anyone who strikes out only 3% of the time should be in the mix there somewhere.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=astudi001wil

[Jack]

Watched part of Pineda's pitching workout on Friday in Fort Myers. They had people recording his workout to record his spin rate etc. At the end of the workout they told him that they would be recording every pitching session. They showed him the data from that session. They were explaining to him how he would be able to use the data and watch his videos to see how different factors would lead to his good or poor spin rates , why his ball might be flattening out, or why it might have better bite some days etc. I'm not a big data man but it was pretty interesting.

[darin617]

You left out Harper,Machado, & Kimbrell.

[Doomtints]

Not giving Mejia his due chance would be a mistake.

[diehardtwinsfan]

have to think Mejia is on the team... the Perez signing tells me he's going to the pen unless there's a pitcher injury... we won't need 5 starters rigth away anyways.

[Halsey Hall]

Gonsalves is back in minors.  Adrianza and Torreyes worked out together yesterday taking infield.

[youngpadawan]

Still holding out hope that the Perez major league deal was a joke. That 5th spot should be Mejia's. If anything Perez should go to long relief in blowouts. I think Torreyes makes the roster. Vasquez will be in AAA. I also hate the Romero to the BP thing but it will probably happen.

[mlhouse]

 

Not giving Mejia his due chance would be a mistake.

\

AS I point out over and over again, they would rather pay a MLB journeyman like Perez $3.5 million than give Meija a real opportunity to pitch.   Meija is probably a better pitcher and Meija has upside and Meija will only be paid $575,000. 

 

  I get the injury issues with Meija, but eventually you have to put the guy out there and let him develop, or not develop.  It isn't as if Meija is 22, he will be 26 years old in June.  The time to let him sink or swim is now.  But, instead of just wrting his name in, they decide to sign a guy like Perez.

 

 

[ChrisKnutson]

Assuming all goes well the in ST, the plan should be to start with a rotation of Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Romero, and Mejia, then add Pineda and Perez later if need be; start Pineda on the DL and Perez as a multi-inning relief option in the bullpen.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

\

AS I point out over and over again, they would rather pay a MLB journeyman like Perez $3.5 million than give Meija a real opportunity to pitch.   Meija is probably a better pitcher and Meija has upside and Meija will only be paid $575,000. 

 

  I get the injury issues with Meija, but eventually you have to put the guy out there and let him develop, or not develop.  It isn't as if Meija is 22, he will be 26 years old in June.  The time to let him sink or swim is now.  But, instead of just wrting his name in, they decide to sign a guy like Perez.

If Mejia goes down we still have Littell, Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart, and Thorpe to fall back on and evaluate. As a last resort we also have Duffey. That's 7 options. Total them all up and you barely have Perez's salary. Another year could easily go by and they may still not really know if these guys can or can't handle the ML. And if they do know w/o putting them in ML games that these guys aren't up to the task then that is another black eye on our org's developmental ability again.

[mlhouse]

 

If Mejia goes down we still have Littell, Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart, and Thorpe to fall back on and evaluate. As a last resort we also have Duffey. That's 7 options. Total them all up and you barely have Perez's salary. Another year could easily go by and they may still not really know if these guys can or can't handle the ML. And if they do know w/o putting them in ML games that these guys aren't up to the task then that is another black eye on our org's developmental ability again.

 

Personally, I don't think it is possible to make that call on any of these guys.   Their career minor league records are too good. 

 

I think Duffey had been given the opportunity and it just isn't going to happen on the Twins.  He is already 28 years old and has been given almost a complete year as a starter with 26 starts in 2016 and a basic full year as a reliever with 56 appearances in 2017.   

 

Instead of the idiotic "opener" concept, I think the Twins should work a 6 man rotation to work in Gonsalves and Romero.  The 5th and 6th starter would pitch split the 5th spot essentially with the guy who has the off week being used as a potential long reliever out of the pen if necessary.   

 

Romero, Gonsalves, Littel, and Meija arent going to get better pitching to players they have already proven they can dominate in the minors.   They have to take the steps up with the big league team.  Pushing that date further and further away by bringing in these mediocre players as free agents/waiver wire pick ups is HURTING THIS TEAM'S LONG RUN COMPETITIVENESS.

 

I want to see several of these guys get the run that Duffey had starting this season (for several it should have started a year of even two years ago).   I would liek to see Andrew Vasquez get 30 appearances, Gonsalves and Romero 10-12 starts in sort of a starting rotation.  Meija have the 4th starting spot. 

 

Then, as you point out, if they don't have success, bring in Littel, Stewart, and Lewis Thorpe.   Waiting on the current group just pushes the next group's potential arrival all the later.  I use the Jim Eisenreich to Kirby Puckett transition asa an example.   If the Twins don't promote Eisenreich to start the season with the Twins in 1982 directly from A ball with limited minor league experience, when does Puckett get his chance?  1987?

[Thrylos]

I am certain that the Twins will add another player, maybe 2, before opening day.

 

That said, if opening day was tomorrow, and everyone was healthy, I agree with the starters as far as the lineup goes.  I'd put Astrudillo over Cave (one option) on the bench.  The Twins need a good contact hitter for late inning situations off the bench, and Astrudillo can at least provide that.

 

If Pineda is healthy he is on the rotation; if he is not, Mejia, Romero and Steward (and maybe Littell) are ahead of Gonsalves who has flaws to iron out in the minors.   Mejia has to make the team; he is out of options; so Vasquez no more.   The weakest cog in that pen in Hildenberger, and I hope that the new management staff realize that and use his option.  Was one of the 5 worse relievers in the majors last season.  Even Magill would be an improvement and he is barely replacement level...

[RatherBeGolfing]

That roster has 77 wins written all over it

[diehardtwinsfan]

I really don't like the idea of Mejia not starting... that really bothers me. I would be a lot more MEH to Perez if he had a minor league deal with a 40 man spot, but as a major leaguer... yuck. I like even less the idea that Romero is heading to the pen. He's got a chance to be an above average starter. He could be the next coming of Mariano Rivera in the pen, and I'd still be upset about him not starting... He's got ace potential... you cannot move that to the pen prematurely. 

[MMMordabito]

 

\

  I get the injury issues with Meija, but eventually you have to put the guy out there and let him develop, or not develop.  It isn't as if Meija is 22, he will be 26 years old in June.  The time to let him sink or swim is now.  But, instead of just wrting his name in, they decide to sign a guy like Perez.

 

Haven't they tried to put him out there and let him develop? The problem has been the injury issues and the inability to get deep into games consistently.  He hasn't shown the durability to earn being penciled in.

 

Also, Baldelli isn't going to be forced to start a 3.5 mill pitcher.  Mejia, Gonsalves and Stewart have a whole ST to prove they should get that last spot. Of course, the latter two have options, so that might not matter for them.  If Mejia outpitches Perez in ST and still gets passed over, then perhaps I'll grab whatever is left in the pitchfork and torch pile.

[yarnivek1972]

My only other tweak of the lineup is Cave vs. Kepler. I think both will get a chance to be every day players along side Rosario and Buxton with Kepler as an occasional LH 1B in place of Cron and Cave the fallback if Buxton gets hurt (again) or can't hit (again). Both will get ABs until one wins out. Cave beat Kepler last year and my guess is that he will do it again or both will be mediocre. I'm less sanguine on Kepler. I hope I'm wrong but 1500 ABs of .233/.313/.417 (.730) with a 97 OPS+ just ain't very good for a CF, much less a RF. He's reputedly a very good OF but with that bat he's a 4th OF as a RF. Cave went .269/.316/.481 (.797), 113 OPS+. If Kepler stays where he's been and Cave repeats or improves on the SO side, admittedly a big IF on Cave (less so on Kepler, he's had his chance and actually hit worse over time, not better), Cave plays RF and Kepler's the 4th OF/LH1B/LH DH. I predict that will happen and probably by June. Good teams have players compete for a spot and those who perform play more than those who don't. That's why they're good teams. I want us to be a good team.

 

Cave had a .368 BABIP last year. Kepler had a .236 - thirty points below his career norm. Kepler also posted career best BB rate of 11% and K rate of 16%. Cave posted a 6% BB rate and a 33% (yikes!) K rate.

 

You are certainly entitled to believe that Cave has a better future. The numbers disagree.

 

Literally all that has to happen for Kepler to put up better numbers is to post a .270 BABIP and Cave’s to drop to a more normal .300-.310.

[Puckett34]

 

You left out Harper,Machado, & Kimbrell.

And Keuchel

[IndianaTwin]

 

 

 

That leaves the choice as Vasquez or another reliever (Kimbrell? Duffy? Moya?) for 8 in the BP vs. Astudillo as a 3rd C/UT or Austin as a backup 1B/DH. I strongly suspect that the long term play will be an 8th RP, but they may take advantage of the early season off days to keep Austin or Astudillo around to start the season. They will try to sneak Austin through on waivers at the end of ST or early on where other teams have their own roster issues. He isn't so good that he'll be claimed for sure and there's a good chance he won't be claimed at all. Astudillo goes to Rochester as insurance for Castro and Garver, assuming both are ready to go at the start of the season or Astudillo stays if one is on the DL.

 

 

 

Not sure I agree on your third paragraph, re: Kepler vs. Cave, but I think your first two paragraphs nail things precisely, particularly the sentence I bolded above. We all know that injuries are going to force adjustments to the plan somewhere, but taking advantage of the schedule seems like such an obvious way to buy time on Austin.

[Doomtints]

 

I think anyone who strikes out only 3% of the time should be in the mix there somewhere.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=astudi001wil

 

It's insane that the Twins act surprised by Astudillo's performance. His numbers in the minors are enviable. It's basically down to what he looks like, he's not built like the stereotypical baseball player.

 

I'm wondering where in the Twins shiny new advanced metrics spreadsheets his frame is scored.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree with you on the strikeout percentage but I'm not sure the math really works either as straight math or as an assumption. Kepler's last three years by BABIP/ISO/Avg are .261/.243/.224 (2016), .276/.182/.243 (2017), and .236/.184/.224 (2018). He's been pretty consistent, with the drop in the BABIP last year corresponding to the drop in his batting average. So even if he gets his BABIP back to his "normal" .250-.275 range, we're looking at a guy who hits .240-.255 with a .315 OBP, 15-20 homers and an OPS+ under 100. 

It works as straight math.

 

Assume Kepler's 2018 components remain constant in 2019 (BB%, K%, ISO), except for BABIP -- assume that corrects +.025 or so, around his career mark.

 

That's basically just taking his exact 2018 batting performance, but exchanging 10 outs for 10 singles. Definitionally, that means he will improve on his 2018 OPS (and also 2016 and 2017 OPS, which were similar to 2018).

 

With just that modest BABIP improvement, his AVG will improve by about .018, and his OPS will improve by double that (since AVG goes into both OBP and SLG). So he'd have a career high OPS, and thus OPS+. Not by a huge amount, but it would be close to a 110 OPS+ or so.

 

You may disagree with the assumption that his 2018 BB% and K% will hold steady into 2019 -- obviously if those drop to 2016-2017 levels, his OPS will likely be at 2016-2017 levels too. But the theory is that K% and BB% stabilize more quickly than other stats -- so his 2018 may represent a real improvement in BB% and K%, and only a random blip in BABIP.

[yarnivek1972]

I fail to see the logic of making Kepler compete with Cave while handing a job to Buxton from day one. Outside of 6 weeks at the end of 2017, Buxton has never hit MLB pitching.

 

I’m not sure how you are estimating Kepler’s 2019, but he hit 20 HR with an obp of .319 in 2018 with his BABIP in the .230s. How do his numbers not improve with a BABIP jump of 20-30 points?

 

I notice there is also no projection of what Cave’s numbers might look like with a 50 point BABIP drop - which IMO is extremely likely. Just doing simple math (I know that’s a hated thing here), if Cave gets 500 AB, posts a BABIP of .310 and drops his K rate to 25%, he’s a .240 hitter with a .270 obp, unless he greatly improves his BB rate.

 

 

The main reason I want Kepler from day one is so he can be the lead off man. I know some (including me at times) have called for Polanco to lead off. After seeing a post suggesting Kepler, I have come to agree with it. Polanco is better suited to the two hole. Then Nelson, Rosario, Sano, Cron, Schoop, Castro and Buxton. Although, I’m not married to that order.