Way too Early: Predict Opening Day Roster

[howieramone2]

 

Still holding out hope that the Perez major league deal was a joke. That 5th spot should be Mejia's. If anything Perez should go to long relief in blowouts. I think Torreyes makes the roster. Vasquez will be in AAA. I also hate the Romero to the BP thing but it will probably happen.

You're going to hand Mejia a spot in the rotation after 25 innings last season? I say it's 50/50 he starts on the DL. The time to win is now. If Mejia becomes a world beater, we can DFA Perez   or move him to the pen.

 

We were a .500 team after May 1st last season. This is not the time to worry about the future, player development etc. This is the time to win and it's a no-brainer that Perez is in a better position to help us win than Mejia out of the gate.

[yarnivek1972]

Polanco’s career obp is .329. Kepler’s is .313. I don’t see how Polanco fits the bill that much better than Kepler. Especially when, as has been noted, just a return to his normal BABIP probably ups his obp quite a bit.

 

As for why Kepler’s numbers weren’t better with a higher BABIP in 2016-7, I think the answer is obviously walking more and striking out less. Sure, that part of his game could regress. It’s just as likely to get better or stay the same.

 

Bottom line is there is a reason why a lot of people are high on Kepler. He has shown advanced plate discipline and has shown an ability to make adjustments (improving vs LHP as an example). I honestly feel that his low career BABIP is due to something casual fans can’t see and am hopeful that some new members of the coaching staff can help. Because if he were posting a league average BABIP in the .300 range, he’d be an all star.

[mlhouse]

 

Haven't they tried to put him out there and let him develop? The problem has been the injury issues and the inability to get deep into games consistently.  He hasn't shown the durability to earn being penciled in.

 

Also, Baldelli isn't going to be forced to start a 3.5 mill pitcher.  Mejia, Gonsalves and Stewart have a whole ST to prove they should get that last spot. Of course, the latter two have options, so that might not matter for them.  If Mejia outpitches Perez in ST and still gets passed over, then perhaps I'll grab whatever is left in the pitchfork and torch pile.

 

1.   How do you "earn" being in there?   If he makes a mistake or has a bad outing does he then get tossed?   Does going back to AAA or lower and dominating then "earn" him the job back?   Meija's career minor league ERA is under 3.50, his career ERA at AAA is 3.51, and his career MLB ERA is 4.11.  THe guy is 26 years old now.  He shouldn't have to "earn" a thing and instead should be given the opportunity to work through a season with the confidence that the team will not just abandon him when he has just because he makes a bad pitch or has a bad game.

 

2.   I;m glad the old Twins didn't make Frank VIola "earn" his way into the starting rotation.   His first two years at the major league level, 1982-83, he had ERAs of 5.21 and 5.49.  Yet, they pitched him 126 innings the first year and then 210 the next.  They did not abandon him and bounce him back and forth between the minors and the majors despite the fact he was just 22 years old and had only 155 innings of minor league experience (and a higher career minor league ERA to that point than Meija).

 

3,  Then, as pointed out earlier in this thread, if Meija gets hurt, which would be likely, or bombs, you put the next guy up. Gonsalves...ROmero....THorpe.....Stewart....  or any one of our touted minor league prospects that this FO doesn't seem to give a rip about.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We were a .500 team after May 1st last season. This is not the time to worry about the future, player development etc. This is the time to win and it's a no-brainer that Perez is in a better position to help us win than Mejia out of the gate.

I agree, Perez plus Mejia is better for this team than just Mejia.

 

But if "this is the time to win", I think there must also exist another SP acquisition who is better for this team than Perez.

[Otto von Ballpark]

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3, Then, as pointed out earlier in this thread, if Meija gets hurt, which would be likely, or bombs, you put the next guy up. Gonsalves...ROmero....THorpe.....Stewart.... or any one of our touted minor league prospects that this FO doesn't seem to give a rip about.

I think it is entirely fair if a team doesn't want Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewart as starters 6-8 on their depth chart right now, especially with how Mejia's 2018 season ended early due to elbow concerns. Doesn't mean they don't care about those guys -- it is just an honest assessment of their readiness to contribute at the moment.

 

Romero could do it, but the team seems to want to see him in the pen, which doesn't seem unreasonable either.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

Watched part of Pineda's pitching workout on Friday in Fort Myers. They had people recording his workout to record his spin rate etc. At the end of the workout they told him that they would be recording every pitching session. They showed him the data from that session. They were explaining to him how he would be able to use the data and watch his videos to see how different factors would lead to his good or poor spin rates , why his ball might be flattening out, or why it might have better bite some days etc. I'm not a big data man but it was pretty interesting.

This is interesting - thanks for sharing it.  Please keep us appraised if you watch any more this Spring.

[Danchat]

 

You're going to hand Mejia a spot in the rotation after 25 innings last season? I say it's 50/50 he starts on the DL. The time to win is now. If Mejia becomes a world beater, we can DFA Perez   or move him to the pen.

 

We were a .500 team after May 1st last season. This is not the time to worry about the future, player development etc. This is the time to win and it's a no-brainer that Perez is in a better position to help us win than Mejia out of the gate.

Mejia only got 25 innings because the Twins signed Lance Lynn, thus removing him from the rotation. He did suffer through some injuries, like missing a month at Rochester and most of September, but if it wasn't for Lynn he would have had another 10-15 starts. My problem with Perez isn't depth, but the total lack of upside for a guy who is going to be locked into a roster spot until he pitches his way out of it.

[howieramone2]

 

Mejia only got 25 innings because the Twins signed Lance Lynn, thus removing him from the rotation. He did suffer through some injuries, like missing a month at Rochester and most of September, but if it wasn't for Lynn he would have had another 10-15 starts. My problem with Perez isn't depth, but the total lack of upside for a guy who is going to be locked into a roster spot until he pitches his way out of it.

Does it even matter at this point in time, why he only got 25 innings? Lynn is far better than Mejia will ever be. I've posted this before, let me post it again. Perez and Mejia have virtually the same ceiling. They are 4 or 5's.   Perez has a higher floor, because it's unlikely Mejia gets 7 or 8 seasons in The Show.

[Danchat]

 

Does it even matter at this point in time, why he only got 25 innings? Lynn is far better than Mejia will ever be. I've posted this before, let me post it again. Perez and Mejia have virtually the same ceiling. They are 4 or 5's.   Perez has a higher floor, because it's unlikely Mejia gets 7 or 8 seasons in The Show.

Lynn was far better despite his 2018 coming in at around 0.3 WAR in 20 starts despte Mejia netting 0.8 WAR in 21 starts? I don't care about the track record, I want to have the better player pitching out there, and comparing the two, I'd rather have Mejia - plus it seems we forget 2017 was his rookie season! Lynn and Perez have durability over Mejia, but IMO our depth is fine, and I'd rather play the better pitchers with more upside. I think Mejia, if given the chance, would improve from his 2017 numbers, just as we were seeing in his 2018 sample size.

[mlhouse]

 

I think it is entirely fair if a team doesn't want Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewart as starters 6-8 on their depth chart right now, especially with how Mejia's 2018 season ended early due to elbow concerns. Doesn't mean they don't care about those guys -- it is just an honest assessment of their readiness to contribute at the moment.

Romero could do it, but the team seems to want to see him in the pen, which doesn't seem unreasonable either.

 

"Contribute" to what, a 75-80 win team?   WHen will the FO "care"?  When these guys are about to turn 30?   

[Otto von Ballpark]

"Contribute" to what, a 75-80 win team? WHen will the FO "care"? When these guys are about to turn 30?

Gonsalves, Stewart, and Romero are only 24 years old, and Thorpe 23.

 

I hope the 2019 Twins win more than 75-80 games. If it's looking like that is all they will win, though, I hope we will see the aforementioned pitchers after a few months.