Twins actively discussing locking up parts of young core

[jorgenswest]

The Twins can afford to pay the arb reward if they earn it. I want players hungry for that reward.

 

I am not interested in deals where the only purpose is cost certainty without extending team control. If they end up star players the Twins will have to rewrite the last few years to get them to extend into free agency so it is no win. If the player tanks the Twins will continue to roster them because of the dollars.

 

Keep the players hungry during arb and only extend to buy free agency years and a real extension of control.

[nater79a]

 

But Merrifield is already around 30, so guaranteed money is a bigger thing to him, than risk.

 

Yeah, that probably plays into it as well.

[TheLeviathan]

Let me know when this actually happens.  Sounds like a defense for the other inactivity.

[Otwins]

I would extend Gibson. If not the Twins will need to sign four starters next off season.  One young pitcher may step forward but three is still a lot to sign in free agency.

[markos]

 

Kepler is consistent; consistently below average. Why lock up a below average hitter when he's had a 1500+ AB opportunity and come up short at the plate? I also agree on Sano and Buxton, I just don't think that any Twins FO is ever going to give up on them because they have such an incredibly high ceiling. Those two are worth taking some longer term risk because of that ceiling and the better chance of improvement.

 

My point is that this team has lived with mediocrity for too long in part because we anoint guys as MLB players before they prove themselves. Kepler may very well be part of the core of a contender by the end of next year. He isn't now and he won't be unless he significantly improves at the plate. Maybe he breaks out this year - I hope he does but you can't give a guy a a longer term deal on anything other than a extremely team friendly basis based on his performance. Let's see if he does that before we strike with him. 

 

BTW, I hope you're wrong on the 3rd point. This team has to go back into tear down and rebuild if Buxton and Sano both don't make it and Rosario leaves.   

There is decent evidence that Kepler had a break out last year, but it just got buried under some bad BABIP luck. His BB% was up significantly, his K% was down significantly. He "barreled" a higher percentage of contact. His statcast exit velocity metrics were better. But his overall batting line was about the same as previous years because he ended up with a .236 BABIP rather than something near his career average (.265-ish). Projection systems are already expecting him to break out next year.

 

Anyway, this is a situation where I think it makes sense to lock up a player early. Kepler is already arbitration eligible. A break out next year will guarantee him a significant raise both for 2020 and the rest of his arbitration years, at which point a team friendly extension will be much less attractive for him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

They might try to extend some of them. Sad part is they won't get any of them to sign into their free agent years.

 

Given how the FA markets have played out over the last two seasons, I'd be curious as to how this changes things. Teams don't seem to want to hand out those big contracts anymore unless you're a superstar, which none of these guys are... but some still could be. 

 

I'd be interested in seeing how agents are approaching this..

 

As for extending them, I'd have no problems extending all of them for the right price. I'm not sure some would sign them as the right price will be pretty low in some cases... Buxton, May, and Sano would be wise to bet on themselves for another season given how bad/injured they were in 2018. Kepler probably as well, but for different reasons. Berrios, Gibson, and Rosario have done well enough to get a decent contract. 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There is decent evidence that Kepler had a break out last year, but it just got buried under some bad BABIP luck. His BB% was up significantly, his K% was down significantly. He "barreled" a higher percentage of contact. His statcast exit velocity metrics were better. But his overall batting line was about the same as previous years because he ended up with a .236 BABIP rather than something near his career average (.265-ish). Projection systems are already expecting him to break out next year.

 

Anyway, this is a situation where I think it makes sense to lock up a player early. Kepler is already arbitration eligible. A break out next year will guarantee him a significant raise both for 2020 and the rest of his arbitration years, at which point a team friendly extension will be much less attractive for him.

Thanks for the vote of confidence. I had been seeing positive data on Kepler's performance on the threads here and there, but never took the time to put it all together as it is here.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

To the case for Kepler, I'd add that he actually OPS'd better versus lefties in 2018, putting to bed the concern about his platoon split (at least for a year). Also, Kepler has a great relationship with Buxton, and I enjoy seeing those two in the outfield together.

[Dr. Evil]

Why would we extend any of them? Rosario maybe. Berrios in another year.

[ewen21]

Why are we talking about seven guys?  We want to be beholden to all of them?  We believe all of them are worth it?

 

I would say Berrios and MAYBE Rosario.  Other than that no way to all of them.  As a few have pointed out, Sano and Buxton are not doing it after terrible years anyway.

 

Sorry, but I just don't get this burning need to extend a bunch of young players.  

[Mike Sixel]

Why are we talking about seven guys? We want to be beholden to all of them? We believe all of them are worth it?

 

I would say Berrios and MAYBE Rosario. Other than that no way to all of them. As a few have pointed out, Sano and Buxton are not doing it after terrible years anyway.

 

Sorry, but I just don't get this burning need to extend a bunch of young players.

I'd bet a lot of money none are, so don't worry about seven.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Why would we extend any of them? Rosario maybe. Berrios in another year.

Because by doing so now you can potentially save a lot of money. If you believe in a player and they want to mitigate risk it can be good for both sides ex ante. 

[Mike Sixel]

I find it hard to believe anyone signs anyone, on any team, much between now and the next CBA......

[ewen21]

 

I'd bet a lot of money none are, so don't worry about seven.

I said I didn't understand all the talk this winter about extending guys.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I said I didn't understand all the talk this winter about extending guys.

and i'm agreeing with you....

[Linus]

A wise person once told me to judge people by their actions not their words. The next extension signed will be the first for the whiz kids

[notoriousgod71]

Honestly,why would any of these guys sign an extension with a team that has shown no desire to win?

[Seth Stohs]

I was in on that conversation with Falvey. It was a good discussion, though obviously it would be of no benefit for him to name any names. He clearly looked like there had been discussions of extensions and they would keep the conversations open. 

 

I think Berrios would be the #1 target. I feel like talking to Buxton makes sense. I think that Rosario has matured to the point where they could have that conversation. I would talk to Kepler, but with Kirilloff around, it would probably be something on the Twins terms only (if I was the GM). I would consider talking to Taylor Rogers at this point. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Because by doing so now you can potentially save a lot of money. If you believe in a player and they want to mitigate risk it can be good for both sides ex ante.

Agreed. As an example, I had hoped the Twins would sign Mauer to an extension after his age 25 season, in which he won his second batting title. Instead, he won the MVP, and became much more expensive. I bet they could have signed him for 7/140, which would have been a LOT better, for several reasons.

[ewen21]

To sign a young player to an extension it really makes no sense for the player unless 1) you do it early, or 2) you sign him later when a player realizes maybe he isn't as great as he thought he was.

 

Berrios is the guy I would most likely take a risk on right now. There is absolutely no reason to lock up Buxton unless you believe giving him money will make him play better. It needs to make sense to the player if you're going to pitch him this idea. It's almost insulting at this point approach Buxton when he is at his weakest from a negotiating standpoint. Why in the heck would he or Sano take an offer now? Talking about extending those two, Kepler or Polanco makes no sense.

 

It's honestly two-dimensional thinking to even pursue these players-- ESCPECIALLY Buxton. Essentiailly it is a move to capitalize on his moment of weakness. There isn't anything clever about it

[Doomtints]

Well, of course they are talking about it. I'm sure this is one thing they talk about all the time, so doing it should not be that much more effort from talking about it, right?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Well, of course they are talking about it. I'm sure this is one thing they talk about all the time, so doing it should not be that much more effort from talking about it, right?

there is that “agreement” thing that gets a bit tricky when money becomes involved.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

One thing to keep in mind - just because you sign a player to a multi-year extension doesn't necessarily mean you're also trying to buy out some of their free agent years.  In some cases, that may be true.  But probably more important is getting some cost certainty for the club into the future, especially during the arbitration years.  Believe Whit Merrifield just signed a multi-year deal with the Royals that just takes him right up to free agency.

No wonder his deal was so team friendly. $16,500,000 for 4 years  to sign a good fielding 2B who led the league in hits and SB. I had not realized the Royals only bought out his arbitration years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No wonder his deal was so team friendly. $16,500,000 for 4 years to sign a good fielding 2B who led the league in hits and SB. I had not realized the Royals only bought out his arbitration years.

That poster wasn't quite correct -- the Royals did get a team option for Merrified's first FA year in that deal.

 

Of course, because of his late start, that first FA year won't come until Merrifield is already 34 years old, so it's not much of a template for the Twins right now.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

That poster wasn't quite correct -- the Royals did get a team option for Merrified's first FA year in that deal.

Of course, because of his late start, that first FA year won't come until Merrifield is already 34 years old, so it's not much of a template for the Twins right now.

Merrifield lives in the county next to my county in North Carolina and is a friend of my son-in-law, who was amazed at Merrifield's "huge" deal. I thought Marrifield could have gotten more money. I haven't heard back from my son-in-law since I texted him that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I thought Marrifield could have gotten more money.

The Royals had a lot of leverage, though. Merrifield is already 30, and wasn't even arbitration eligible -- I imagine he felt it was too risky to wait for an even bigger payday. Injury or under-performance could quickly tank his career earnings at that age, as compared to a young guy like Schoop.

[Jham]

I was in on that conversation with Falvey. It was a good discussion, though obviously it would be of no benefit for him to name any names. He clearly looked like there had been discussions of extensions and they would keep the conversations open.

 

I think Berrios would be the #1 target. I feel like talking to Buxton makes sense. I think that Rosario has matured to the point where they could have that conversation. I would talk to Kepler, but with Kirilloff around, it would probably be something on the Twins terms only (if I was the GM). I would consider talking to Taylor Rogers at this point.

So if 2 seasons in a row we've failed to lock up this supposed core... and if they've underperformed for the most part... should we at least be considering other options? Like say... sign a young star FA for (gasp) more than 1 season. And maybe trade some guys you a)won't extend, or might not want to extend. Then make a run with the others taking advantage of their rookie deals while they're still Twins. Thoughts?