Article: Sizing Up Cody Allen

[ashbury]

They said the 52% was over time. There are death, taxes, and my favorite team is owned by the Pohlads,

"The check is in the mail", "something something something", and "52% of revenue".

[jud6312]

I got giddy about this thread when I saw the news of this signing last night.

 

 

[ashbury]

I got giddy about this thread when I saw the news of this signing last night.

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

I got giddy about this thread when I saw the news of this signing last night.

 

http://gif-finder.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Better-Call-Saul-Mike-Ehrmantraut-Get-Angry-Reaction-Jonathan-Banks.gif

 

http://replygif.net/i/229.gif

[bighat]

 

In a vacuum yes I agree. I'm not totally fine with the Twins not signing any of the other 13-14 quality relievers available this winter.

 

Yeah, I mean with Ottavino off the board and other quality guys getting signed it's unfortunate. I heard Brad Brach listed as a possibility over on MLB trade rumors' website.

[nicksaviking]

There are still 8-10 relievers I’d like and several of the bigger names free agents I had very little interest in.

 

But yeah, at least as far as the pen goes it seems like they’re using last year’s strategy of waiting to see who’s still standing after the music stops and offer those guys below expected contracts, despite the front office implicitly saying that strategy might have been misguided last year. It would be nice if we had some local reporters who could get us some insight or at least educated speculation as to why this is happening again so the fans could at least understand what we’re dealing with.

[Mike Sixel]

Didn't the front office say it was a mistake to bring in guys later last year, because they were unhappy? Will it be different this year?

[Don Walcott]

Addison Reed had better have a really good season for the sake of our FO and their reputation. Not sure how they could spend $8 million per season for two years of Reed and not go after Ottavino for $9 million per year for three years. And the Yankees had nowhere near the need the Twins have to upgrade their bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

Addison Reed had better have a really good season for the sake of our FO and their reputation. Not sure how they could spend $8 million per season for two years of Reed and not go after Ottavino for $9 million per year for three years. And the Yankees had nowhere near the need the Twins have to upgrade their bullpen.

Ottavino has awful control and was a bit of a one year wonder from my view, I didn’t want him. I would have wanted Robertson and Soria on those two-year-deals though.

[Tomj14]

Allen signing with the Angels

 

[ChrisKnutson]

If we we’re unwilling to pay up for Allen, I really doubt we’re gonna sign any of Brach, Wilson, or Norris. Honestly, I have doubts that we’ll even take a chance on Ryan Madson or Greg Holland because they might “cost too much” on a 1 year deal.

 

As you can tell, my confidence in the FO is on the verge of being shattered. Why sign Cruz? Why sign Schoop? If you weren’t going to go out and get an established closer; something this club really needed. And it’s not like our young pitchers (besides Romero, Stewart, and Moya) are that good, if at all.

 

Hopefully a couple of our minor leaguers like Alcala, Thorpe, and or Stashak can step up, or else we might already be out of contention by the All-Star break.

[ahart10]

 

As you can tell, my confidence in the FO is on the verge of being shattered. Why sign Cruz? Why sign Schoop? If you weren’t going to go out and get an established closer; something this club really needed. And it’s not like our young pitchers (besides Romero, Stewart, and Moya) are that good, if at all.

 

Any one year deal for veterans on non contending teams is so they can be flipped at the deadline for prospects. This is something the last FO didn’t make use of and I’ll atlest give some credit to the new one for taking advantage.

[John Kelsey]

Starting to feel like the Vikings and their O line. Pretty good team with a glaring weakness that wasn't addressed in the offseason that will/could sink the team. 

[DocBauer]

PO'd by the loss of Allen when he made so much sense.

 

I get RP are a bit of a turbulent breed except for the truly elite. And even they stumble at times. Maybe signing Allen would have turned out to be a bad investment, even for only a year.

 

Honestly, who else is out there at this point to bring in?

[old nurse]

 

Yes, you have identified where this conversation goes wrong. There is little ambiguity in Payroll Expense or personnel expense. It's reasonable that someone might interpret salaries as meaning salary only without taxes and benefits.

 

If an executive used the term "salaries" in a summary context and I could not clarify, I would assume he/she meant salary + benefits because these discussions are virtually always in that context. It's a meaningless discussion if part of the information is omitted. "Salaries" is not a term generally used by executives or financial analysts. They use "payroll" or "personnel costs" or even "salary + benefits". It would be interesting to see the exact quote but even if someone used the term salaries, I would assume any Twins executive meant salary + benefits because it makes no sense to exclude a portion of the expense. 

Free agents are paid what they are worth is your statement. How was Logan Morrison worth 5.5 million plus the option?

[Major League Ready]

 

Free agents are paid what they are worth is your statement. How was Logan Morrison worth 5.5 million plus the option?

 

Did you mean to quote a different post? My post had literally nothing to do with how any individual free agent is valued or the amount of the contract they sign so I am assuming you just clicked on the wrong post when you quoted.

[old nurse]

 

Did you mean to quote a different post? My post had literally nothing to do with how any individual free agent is valued or the amount of the contract they sign so I am assuming you just clicked on the wrong post when you quoted.

oops sorry

[Major League Ready]

 

oops sorry

 

No problem, I just wondered if I missed something that tied this together. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

What does average payroll have to do with what the Twins will spend?

Aside from last year, with $50 million BamTec payment, how have they compared historically to average payroll?

2014: 30 million under league average.

2015: 17 million under league average.

2016: 25 million under league average.

2017: 28 million under league average.

 

That's an average of 25 million under league average over the period you referenced, which would likely cap payroll at around 110 million this year, as I've been saying for close to a year now.

25 mil under league average when you are a 100 game loser is one thing. 30 mil under league average when that 30 mil could be the difference between mediocre and actually playoff competitive is entirely different.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Ottavino has awful control and was a bit of a one year wonder from my view, I didn’t want him. I would have wanted Robertson and Soria on those two-year-deals though.

 

Correct... Addison Reed had a much better track record of success when he signed with the Twins last year. A perfect example of bullpen spending via free agency. 

[TheLeviathan]

Addison Reed had red flags too. We are angling to guarantee Magill a roster spot at this point.

 

That's just unacceptable.

[DocBauer]

Addison Reed had red flags too. We are angling to guarantee Magill a roster spot at this point.

That's just unacceptable.

Liked your post and agree with you. But a couple caveats, if I may.

 

Even as thjngs stand today, with the arms being brought in, an no knowing exactly how Rocco will utilize his/make his roster, I'm not sure Magill is guaranteed anything.

 

I saw some very bad performances from Magill last season. We all did. But I also saw a mid 90's FB and a wicked slider, all in his first extended tour of ML duty. At times I found myself fascinated what he might do with greater consistency. I am neither a fan or believer, but with a year of experience, could Johnson unlock greater consistency to lower the BB and HR numbers that seemed to come in bunches? Talk about Jekyl and Hyde! I'm only saying, I'm intrigued.

[mikelink45]

GONE - so much for that dream

 

[DocBauer]

What does average payroll have to do with what the Twins will spend?

Aside from last year, with $50 million BamTec payment, how have they compared historically to average payroll?

2014: 30 million under league average.

2015: 17 million under league average.

2016: 25 million under league average.

2017: 28 million under league average.

That's an average of 25 million under league average over the period you referenced, which would likely cap payroll at around 110 million this year, as I've been saying for close to a year now.

Posted this elsewhere:

 

2010: $97.5M payroll ranking 10th

2011: $112.7M payroll ranking 9th

2017: $94.2M payroll ranking 23rd

2018: $129.5M payroll ranking 16th.

 

Twice in the past several years ownership has had the Twins in the top 10 of payroll when they had a team they felt had a chance. After 2017 they jumped from 23rd to 16th, just behind the mean, believing they might have something.

 

The 2010-2011 numbers are not ancient history. Nor is a recent $36M jump. No excuses for not spending if opportunity is there. If reported revenues are close to correct, and the 52% rule is in place, then the Twins CAN afford $130M payroll. And I see no reason why a bump to a $150M would skew numbers badly for "going for it". But "opportunity" is the catch word. Spending just to spend is not smart. Spending wisely is the key. No excuses offered. But it's also easy to cherry pick low spending years. Context is warranted, and years of top 10 payroll and large spikes must also be weighed and considered.

 

Just offering a different perspective.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Correct... Addison Reed had a much better track record of success when he signed with the Twins last year. A perfect example of bullpen spending via free agency.

Perhaps you are over-stating the difference in track record?

 

Ottavino's 7 seasons in the pen: 9.2 bWAR, 5.5 fWAR in 390 innings.

 

Reed's 7 seasons in the pen before signing with the Twins: 6.2 bWAR, 6.9 fWAR in 402 innings.

[Don Walcott]

Correct... Addison Reed had a much better track record of success when he signed with the Twins last year. A perfect example of bullpen spending via free agency.

Who would you expect to be better in 2019? Ottavino or Reed? Do you think Reed will be better than any of the top 10 free agent relievers from this off season?

 

I sure hope he bounces back, but it doesn’t look too promising at this point. And that doesn’t speak well of our FO talent assessment. But again, I hope I’m wrong.