Pineda 2019 season

[AlwaysinModeration]

So I would like to start a discussion on Pineda for 2019. I have combed through his numbers, and see his stellar early career numbers with Seattle, and his struggles with the Yankees. I noted his great K/BB and his inflated BABIP and HR/rates in New York. I see some real upside for Pineda for 2019, and think it warrants some discussion.

 

Then I went in search of previous Pineda threads, and I found the original signing topic and it’s nine pages of comments. I will save folks the trouble of rereading that whole thread (which included, in addition to opinions on the move, some new proposed statistics, brushing teeth and drinking orange juice, and Wham!) by summarizing: Many thought the move was not good at the time, or at least meh. Some loved it, or wished the contract came with an option. (And also, at the time, many thought Trevor May would be a starter in 2018...that ship has sailed, right?) And here are two top comments I thought worth reposting:

 

Tom Froemming wrote:

“Passing along some stuff I already shared on Twitter ...

 

“Michael Pineda last three seasons: 9.46 K/9, 1.98 BB/9. That 4.79 K:BB ratio ranked seventh among the 78 pitchers to log 400 IP in that time frame, trailing only Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Kluber, Bumgarner and Carrasco.

 

“His overall numbers were far less impressive because he had the worst BABIP (.328) of that sample and the second-worst HR/FB rate (17.4%). He's given up a lot of home runs, but over his career he has a 1.6 HR/9 rate at Yankee Stadium and a 0.9 HR/9 rate everywhere else.”

 

amgt wrote:

“I'm a little surprised by the negative opinions on this signing.

 

“Worse case scenario: we lit $10M on fire. MLB teams do that all the time.

 

“Median scenario: he comes back in Aug and pitches from the bullpen the rest of the year. 2019 he pitches like a good #4 starter, which, at $8M, is an underpay. He becomes a free agent and we thank him for his time here.

 

“Really Good Scenario: Same as above but he pitches like a 2/3, which $8M is a severe underpay, we extend him a QO and are happy if we get him for 1/18, or he declines and we get the 35th pick in the 2020 draft for the trouble.”

 

I was glad to find Tom’s stats so I didn’t need to repost. I will also note that Pineda’s H/9 and WHIP career numbers are good. And I think amgt’s “really good scenario” is definitely within the realm of possibilities.

 

It obviously depends on his recovery from TJ, but if he comes back as his normal self, I am very bullish on Pineda for this coming season. What do others think?

[KirbyDome89]

His normal self isn't really a healthy self at this point. That late season bullpen track was already derailed because he was injured during his rehab assignment. IMO any production from Pineda should be counted as a bonus, and if he puts up numbers mentioned in the median or good scenarios that's great. What I'm hoping doesn't happen is that the Twins start the season with him penciled in as the 4 spot with a rotating door behind him.

[beckmt]

Options  are not normally part of these type of contracts.  Hope this one works out, but #4 starter is low if Pineda comes back near what he was.  Have more hope for him in the second half of the year than the first. 

As far as the revolving rotation door, Twins seem to already have made that decision on that is the way they are going.  

[Blackjack]

As injury prone as Pineda has been, I'm not going to hold my breath.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I expect him to start, and he's far enough out that most of the TJ issues should be long gone... We'll see. It was an excellent buy low move... whether it pays dividends, who knows.

[Doctor Wu]

Despite the injury setbacks, I still like the signing and buy into the hopeful notion that he'll be productive this coming season. But then again, part of me is realistic and pessimistic that will actually happen. But hey, if saw some version of the Seattle Pineda resurrect itself that would be wonderful!

[bird]

 

His normal self isn't really a healthy self at this point. That late season bullpen track was already derailed because he was injured during his rehab assignment. IMO any production from Pineda should be counted as a bonus, and if he puts up numbers mentioned in the median or good scenarios that's great. What I'm hoping doesn't happen is that the Twins start the season with him penciled in as the 4 spot with a rotating door behind him.

 

 

By all accounts, Pineda had recovered nicely following his TJ surgery. He had surgery to repair a meniscus in September and not an arm issue. Surely he's fully recovered from that by now.

 

I guess I'm encouraged that they're penciling him in as a good bet for back end production. I also wonder, with Pineda, Mejia, Gonsalves, (Romero as a high-leverage bullpen guy), Stewart, and maybe even Thorpe, if they can even set the rotation for the better part of the year and avoid a rotating door due to performance problems. Injuries are another matter.

 

Even if they have a string of injuries and failure in some combination, guys like De Jong, Littell, and even Slegers are better back-ups than what we had to put up with for #6-8 options in the past few seasons than those guys at #9-11 on the depth chart.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

I expect him to start, and he's far enough out that most of the TJ issues should be long gone... We'll see. It was an excellent buy low move... whether it pays dividends, who knows.

 

I agree with the last part of this, whether or not it pays off, it was a deal that made sense and a creative way to go about it.

 

That said, I'm also not a fan of us banking on Pineda to be someone we can trust throughout the season. There's no rule against us adding more talent but we appear to be unaware of that

[bird]

 

I agree with the last part of this, whether or not it pays off, it was a deal that made sense and a creative way to go about it.

 

That said, I'm also not a fan of us banking on Pineda to be someone we can trust throughout the season. There's no rule against us adding more talent but we appear to be unaware of that

 

 

I have a hunch Falvey knows the rules and simply has a different opinion.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

My feelings about Pineda have more to do with what the FO does with the rest of the pitching staff. There’s still one rotation spot open and the bullpen is in some need of high impact arms.

 

If the FO stands pat and rolls in to spring training with what used be solid depth as plan A (80-90 mil payroll) I’m POed about Pineda because he’s the best they got and we’re gonna watch a bunch of bullpen games. And not the really effective Andrew Miller type bullpen games. The cruddy churn through all the AAA and AA chaff the FO can get their hands on kind...

 

If the FO acquires a decent mid rotation starter and a couple high impact relievers (115-125 m payroll) I’m good with Pineda as a lightning in a bottle but not plan A signing.

 

If the FO does something in the middle (most likely) where they roll into ST with adding one decent bullpen arm acquired and a back rotation type starter (95-105 m payroll) I’ll be most po’ed because the FO didn’t even make a decision.

 

It has little to do with Pineda, as much as what he means to the strategy employed by the FO.

[Vanimal46]

I feel more confident about Pineda than I do about Mr. 5 innings Odorizzi and whoever else fills out the back of the rotation.

[ChrisKnutson]

Get what you can out of him, and if he performs anything like Eovaldi did in Tampa, flip him at the deadline for some prospects.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I feel more confident about Pineda than I do about Mr. 5 innings Odorizzi and whoever else fills out the back of the rotation.

with Pineda coming back from not pitching for the last 18 months or so, do you suppose he’ll have great endurance? He was a 5.5-6 inning guy with the Yankees, I doubt he will have more endurance than that in ‘19

[Vanimal46]

with Pineda coming back from not pitching for the last 18 months or so, do you suppose he’ll have great endurance? He was a 5.5-6 inning guy with the Yankees, I doubt he will have more endurance than that in ‘19

I don't have the slightest idea what his endurance will be. Just a hunch he'll be okay. Does he fall off a cliff the 3rd time through the order like Odorizzi?

[KirbyDome89]

 

By all accounts, Pineda had recovered nicely following his TJ surgery. He had surgery to repair a meniscus in September and not an arm issue. Surely he's fully recovered from that by now.

 

I guess I'm encouraged that they're penciling him in as a good bet for back end production. I also wonder, with Pineda, Mejia, Gonsalves, (Romero as a high-leverage bullpen guy), Stewart, and maybe even Thorpe, if they can even set the rotation for the better part of the year and avoid a rotating door due to performance problems. Injuries are another matter.

 

Even if they have a string of injuries and failure in some combination, guys like De Jong, Littell, and even Slegers are better back-ups than what we had to put up with for #6-8 options in the past few seasons than those guys at #9-11 on the depth chart.

Another injury to add to the list though right? That's kind of the point, he hasn't exactly been reliable in terms of staying on the field in the last three years. 

 

I'm fine with him as a back end starter, but I wouldn't be counting on him to hold that role down for an entire season. I agree that their depth is more encouraging this season than in previous years, but a rotation of Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, and 2 of the above still doesn't inspire much confidence. Mejia or Romero could take a step forward. Maybe Gonsalves figures it out. I'm honestly not sure what to think of Stewart, his starts felt like watching somebody walk a tightrope. I'd rather not hang the hopes for the season on either of those outcomes.

 

The rest of that group seems like AAAA/fringe MLB guys, at least at the moment, which again, is better than the obvious AAAA guys the Twins have run out in the past but IMO it's still not enough to hold up a playoff team, barring some massive collapse by the Indians. 

[Doomtints]

Pineda is just using the Twins contract to get a bigger contract going forward. I'm guessing he will perform as a solid #3, possibly even a #2, before he bolts. Being a #2 would be playing above his long term potential, mind you.

 

Pineda was never that great. I still don't understand why the Twins gave him the deal they gave him. The Twins needed help last year.

[Twodogs]

Pineda is just using the Twins contract to get a bigger contract going forward. I'm guessing he will perform as a solid #3, possibly even a #2, before he bolts. Being a #2 would be playing above his long term potential, mind you.

 

Pineda was never that great. I still don't understand why the Twins gave him the deal they gave him. The Twins needed help last year.

The Twins got some help last year with Lance Lynn, it just didn't work out as planned, they also got Anibal Sanchez who they let go at the end of S.T. and he did pretty good with Atlanta but no one would have guessed that. So they did, but Lynn and Sanchez didn't work out for the Twins.

[Thegrin]

Lets hope Rocco is a better manager than Molitor.  If he handles the pitching staff better, Pineda could be a star.  If he handles pitching like Molitor then we are looking at another long year, regardless of how the hitters hit.  

[Twodogs]

Lets hope Rocco is a better manager than Molitor. If he handles the pitching staff better, Pineda could be a star. If he handles pitching like Molitor then we are looking at another long year, regardless of how the hitters hit.

You know, the Twins lost a lot, a lot of 1 and 2 run games last year, especially early in the season, and they lost a lot of them late in the game, seemed like every one of Seattle's games against the twins was won late, so in reality, if the Twins hit significantly better this year, that could add up to quite a few extra wins.

 

In the First half of the season the Twins were 44 - 50, they lost 23 games by 1 or 2 runs. If better hitting could have turned around 10 of those games the Twins would have been 54 - 40??? That definitely would have changed the course of their direction at the trade deadline.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/min/seasontype/2/half/1

 

There was even a other game in the first half that they lost 7 - 4 in extra innings to Toronto that I didn't count because it was 3 runs. I think once stuff goes bad and all the trades happen and the Twins really stunk to finish up the season that a lot of the positive stuff that happened early on gets forgotten. I mean early on last year the Twins were close to winning a lot of games, they just didn't. Much of it can be blamed on Buxton and Sano not fulfilling what everyone was hoping that they would do. So realistically they are in the same boat this year. If those guys are decent, they don't need to have career years, they just can't hit .180 for the year. So better hitting would have, in my opinion, made a big difference last year. It could this year too.

[Thrylos]

I put together my thoughts on Pineda here, right when he was signed in about 900 words.

 

It  summarizes why I was not a fan of it then and I am not now, based on potential performance influenced by his health, the likelihood the slider returns after TJ, and his decision making process...

[Twodogs]

So they dropped 8 mill to see if he can learn from his mistakes and hope his slider can come back? I'd say give it a shot and see what happens. Hopefully Pineda takes advantage of this opportunity?

[ChrisKnutson]

Really hoping this signing turns out as well as it did for the Rays when they signed Eovaldi. Think about it, it’s a win-win situation either way. Either he helps contribute to our first division title since 2010, or he pitches well enough to traded at the deadline for prospects, and the fact that his situation is very similar to Eovaldi’s in 2018 only increases his trade value.

[DocBauer]

When you glimpse at Linda's numbers initially, he's solid but you are not overwhelmed. (Note: I'm not a big stat guy, but the basic numbers are easy to read and digest). There has been reference made to previous injury, but I'm only aware of his TJ and knee tweak at the end of 2018. Regardles...when you look a bit deeper you 160IP once, 170IP twice. You see a career ERA of 4.05, which is pretty solid for the AL, and only once has he had a number higher than 4.40. (I understand ERA is highly debatable). I see a solid WHIP, low BB and K numbers that come out to nearly an even 9 per.

 

His arm appears sound. There have been no reports indicating his knee injury was major, or a question going forward. It's just a shame he couldn't have gotten in some late 2018 appearances to make us all feel better.

 

I think this was a smart move. I think/hope Rocco and his staff will monitor his IP some because there are two things to consider here:

 

1] Will he start great but fade as the season goes along after time off?

 

2] Will he start out a little slow but develop feel and endurance as the season moves along?

 

I still feel the build of the pen is a bigger question than the rotation, at this point. An addition or two, and the use of the many available arms has me optimistic for potential and depth in the rotation. Pineda is part of that optomism.

[Doomtints]

 

The Twins got some help last year with Lance Lynn, it just didn't work out as planned, they also got Anibal Sanchez who they let go at the end of S.T. and he did pretty good with Atlanta but no one would have guessed that. So they did, but Lynn and Sanchez didn't work out for the Twins.

 

If I recall correctly, they dropped Sanchez when they picked up either Odorizzi or Lynn.

[Twodogs]

If I recall correctly, they dropped Sanchez when they picked up either Odorizzi or Lynn.

Yeah, I'm assuming they prob didn't have room for him, or Sanchez may have asked to be let go seeing what appeared to be a lot of depth at that time. At that point they still were considering what to do with Phil Hughes also.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I still feel the build of the pen is a bigger question than the rotation, at this point. An addition or two, and the use of the many available arms has me optimistic for potential and depth in the rotation. Pineda is part of that optomism.

 

With a few additions to the bullpen to make it more reliable and some steps forward by May and Romero out there, this team is going to win the division. They lost tons of games last year because their pen was terrible. If they really want to win, make a trade or sign 1 or 2 guys and lets roll.

[scottz]

I'm optimistic.

 

I have no idea how the Twins or Pineda will do. I'm just optimistic in general, and I wanted to share that fact about myself with all of you.

[twins_89]

I liked the Pineda signing last off-season and I still like it today. What I don't like is that the Twins starting pitching depth scares me a bit. Berrios/Gibson/Odorizzi should be solid, however I worry about relying on an injury prone Pineda while having no established starters as insurance. The Twins young starters (Mejia, Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, and Thorpe) have intriguing upside, but none of them have yet shown they can be consistent in the majors.

 

A second concern is the rotation beyond this season. With Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda all free agents after the season the Twins could well have 2-3 spots in the rotation to fill next off-season. As we've seen over the years, adding one good starter is hard so having to add multiple starters could be a serious problem.

[Mr. Brooks]

I liked the Pineda signing last off-season and I still like it today. What I don't like is that the Twins starting pitching depth scares me a bit. Berrios/Gibson/Odorizzi should be solid, however I worry about relying on an injury prone Pineda while having no established starters as insurance. The Twins young starters (Mejia, Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, and Thorpe) have intriguing upside, but none of them have yet shown they can be consistent in the majors.

 

A second concern is the rotation beyond this season. With Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda all free agents after the season the Twins could well have 2-3 spots in the rotation to fill next off-season. As we've seen over the years, adding one good starter is hard so having to add multiple starters could be a serious problem.

None of those 3 guys should be difficult to retain, should the FO want them here.