2018 Rule 5 Draft Discussion

caninatl04 · November 27, 2018

Since no one else has, I thought I'd start a discussion of the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Issues include whether any of the "exposed" current Twins will be drafted and / or whether the Twins will take the opportunity to fill that 40th / 25th roster spot.

Here is MLB's Mayo's take:

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-available-prospects-in-mlb-rule-5-draft/c-262486372

It is interesting to note that "There are nine first-round picks from the 2013 Draft -- including three of the first seven players selected...available."

One question: how is the draft order determined? I note that the Twins pick 20th.

Brandon · November 27, 2018

That article is from last year.

ashbury · November 28, 2018

That article is from last year.

Try this:

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-eligible-for-the-rule-5-draft/c-301040298

... which provides a link also to this:

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-rule-5-eligible-prospects-for-all-30-teams/c-300531350

I'm not sure I'd advocate for my Twins taking anyone. I'll stick my neck out to guess that none of our exposed players is taken.

One question: how is the draft order determined? I note that the Twins pick 20th.

Reverse order of W-L record, regardless of league. That should put the Twins 12th. I can't find a definitive source that shows this year's order, though. Last year they were 20th.

Mike Sixel · November 28, 2018

If they take a player, they better use him like any other player, and not handicap the new manager with a 24 man roster. Last year they had a 23 man roster to start the year. Ugh.

Danchat · November 28, 2018

If the Twins take a guy, I hope it's somebody like Jake Reed - someone who has experience in the upper minors but hasn't been given a shot despite good numbers. Somebody who could be a decent 7th guy in the bullpen... and if it doesn't work out, cut bait sooner than later.

Shaitan · November 28, 2018

Sorta related, Justin Haley just signed with a Korean team. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/tommy-joseph-signs-korea-justin-haley-kbo.html

ken · November 28, 2018

If the Twins take a guy, I hope it's somebody like Jake Reed - someone who has experience in the upper minors but hasn't been given a shot despite good numbers. Somebody who could be a decent 7th guy in the bullpen... and if it doesn't work out, cut bait sooner than later.

Why not just add Jake Reed to the roster? Drafting a player like him seems a waste.

Danchat · November 28, 2018

Why not just add Jake Reed to the roster? Drafting a player like him seems a waste.

Yeah, I know, but it's clear the Twins just don't think he's going to be a good player he would have been given a shot at some point in 2018. But if I were running the team, Reed would be on the 40 man roster.

caninatl04 · November 28, 2018

That article is from last year.

OOps-- I cut and pasted the wrong link. Mea Culpa.

Ben Noble · November 28, 2018

Richie Martin is intriguing as a backup MI, and lefty Breilling Eusebio could be stashed on the DL for most of 2019 after TJ surgery mid-May.

Rosterman · November 28, 2018

Is a player any better than anyone currently on the roster or better than someone you might lose in the system (i.e. Jake Reed, D.J. Baxendale, Ryan Eades).

There are some interesting middle infield candidates, but again, would we be better served adding someone who is just okay or seeing what we have in Gordon?

Although Cron was a nice temporary pickup, I would only go after free agents (like a rotation arm, or a good bullpen arm) if we know they are a viable roster holder for at least three seasons. No matter the price. If not, just go with what we have, and maybe do some last minute dumpster diving if holes develop.

The Twins are in rebuild mold...rebuilding in the image of players the current front office has sought and put into the organization, period. Anything else is smoke-and-mirror bandaids or figuring out ways to maximize the worth of players from the old regime.

KirbyDome89 · November 28, 2018

Try this:
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-eligible-for-the-rule-5-draft/c-301040298
... which provides a link also to this:
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-rule-5-eligible-prospects-for-all-30-teams/c-300531350

I'm not sure I'd advocate for my Twins taking anyone. I'll stick my neck out to guess that none of our exposed players is taken.

Reverse order of W-L record, regardless of league. That should put the Twins 12th. I can't find a definitive source that shows this year's order, though. Last year they were 20th.

If I'm betting I'd say it's more likely than not that Jay is selected. Pedigree alone might be enough to convince a team to take a look at him through ST.

As a side note, hopefully this is the year the FO decides to sit out the Rule V. If I'm going to watch a minor league pitcher with questionable attributes stick on the 25 man I'd rather it be somebody from the Twins own system.

ashbury · November 28, 2018

If I'm betting I'd say it's more likely than not that Jay is selected. Pedigree alone might be enough to convince a team to take a look at him through ST.

Maybe so. If more than one other team sees it that way, maybe we can obtain something in trade for him. It should be more desirable to a team to roster him on their 40-man, but have no obligation to keep him on their 25-man all season, than to draft him.

nicksaviking · November 28, 2018

Richie Martin is intriguing as a backup MI, and lefty Breilling Eusebio could be stashed on the DL for most of 2019 after TJ surgery mid-May.

Yeah, I most likely don't want anyone, but Richie Martin looks like he might actually be able to push for the starting SS gig if the Twins would prefer to move Polanco to 2B. Looks like he was pretty good at getting on base last year which to me is always one of the most translatable skills. He'll probably be scooped up though right away and I'm not sure I care to use a roster spot on anyone else.

ashbury · November 28, 2018

Yeah, I most likely don't want anyone, but Richie Martin looks like he might actually be able to push for the starting SS gig if the Twins would prefer to move Polanco to 2B. Looks like he was pretty good at getting on base last year which to me is always one of the most translatable skills. He'll probably be scooped up though right away and I'm not sure I care to use a roster spot on anyone else.

I'm always nervous about taking Texas League numbers too seriously as an indicator of readiness. I wonder also if teams will be leery of his chronic knee problems.

Also, as I said above in a different context, just trade for him, if the scouts say he's a good gamble - he won't cost a ton if he's being left exposed anyway, and then you can option him for a few years until he's fully ready.

Jay for Martin?

nicksaviking · November 28, 2018

I'm always nervous about taking Texas League numbers too seriously as an indicator of readiness. I wonder also if teams will be leery of his chronic knee problems.

Could be. Though that leeriness might be overlooked considering DL stints for Rule V draftees can be advantageous. The word chronic is rarely good though, I mostly just remember him from the draft that year.

Also, my choice for lost Twins is still my dark horse Cody Stashak. Multi inning reliever with good strikeout and walk numbers.

Steve Lein · November 28, 2018

From Mayo's list of guys from each team, I think Richie Martin would be the most intriguing for me. He would theoretically replace Adrianza on the roster.

Brandon · November 28, 2018

We've had some good hits with the rule 5. I'm ok with us taking a flier on someone.

Vanimal46 · November 28, 2018

We've had some good hits with the rule 5. I'm ok with us taking a flier on someone.

When were the good hits? Pressly in 2013?

Mike Sixel · November 29, 2018

We've had some good hits with the rule 5. I'm ok with us taking a flier on someone.

almost no one has had meaningful hits since they changed the rules a few years ago.

Dr. Evil · November 29, 2018

I would be fine with the Twins forgetting about the rule 5 draft indefinitely. Tired of discussions about it littering this site. Rule 5 is something that needs changing or eliminated in the CBA. It's the single biggest offseason annoyance to me. Who gives a shart.

KirbyDome89 · November 29, 2018

Maybe so. If more than one other team sees it that way, maybe we can obtain something in trade for him. It should be more desirable to a team to roster him on their 40-man, but have no obligation to keep him on their 25-man all season, than to draft him.

It certainly is more desirable to have that flexibility. I was thinking more along the lines of a team with no prospect of competing this season, and no desire to spend in FA adding him at least through ST.

caninatl04 · November 29, 2018

Could be. Though that leeriness might be overlooked considering DL stints for Rule V draftees can be advantageous. The word chronic is rarely good though, I mostly just remember him from the draft that year.

Also, my choice for lost Twins is still my dark horse Cody Stashak. Multi inning reliever with good strikeout and walk numbers.

I guess the question is: how bad is the Orioles' bullpen?

scottz · November 29, 2018

I would be fine with the Twins forgetting about the rule 5 draft indefinitely. Tired of discussions about it littering this site. Rule 5 is something that needs changing or eliminated in the CBA. It's the single biggest offseason annoyance to me. Who gives a shart.

How do you feel about Rule 6?

Riverbrian · November 29, 2018

If they do I don’t want them to but if they do.

I’d want a 3B/OF combo guy.

He must play immediately (not hidden) and his roster inclusion would force either Cron or Austin off the roster so he must produce better then those two would immediately.

If that guy doesn’t exist. Stay out of the rule 5.

TFRazor · November 29, 2018

I guess the question is: how bad is the Orioles' bullpen?

Bad enough that rostering a Rule 5 guy in the bullpen for an entire season isn't completely out of the realm of possibility. Dumpster fire doesn't do that team justice. More like a dumpster blaze.

Lonestar · November 29, 2018

almost no one has had meaningful hits since they changed the rules a few years ago.

So you're saying there's a chance.

Ben Noble · November 29, 2018

When were the good hits? Pressly in 2013?

almost no one has had meaningful hits since they changed the rules a few years ago.

And Scott Diamond had that one solid season.

Not making an argument for or against, and the Rule 5 has certainly lost a lot of its luster since the rule change, but I simply don't buy that the Rule 5 is now practically meaningless. I think the real issue is that our front office needs to be much more judicious in both the selections they make and how rostering those players for an entire season affects roster flexibility. Stop reaching for players and only make a selection if and when there's a clear fit. And for pete's sake, pull the plug much, much more quickly if a Rule 5 selection is clearly over his head in The Show.

With benches becoming so short, I'd like to see a rule change in the next CBA that allows teams to option Rule 5 players for a limited number of days.