Article: Offseason Primer: Twins Should Stick With Jorge Polanco at Shortstop

[TheLeviathan]

You're taking a top 8-10 hitter in the middle infield to downgrade him to league average....and have him play a position he hasn't played defensively.

 

I don't see the upside Mike.  In general, I can't ever see a scenario where I'm moving a middle infielder to a corner unless the guy is 40 and can still hit like a machine.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

You're taking a top 8-10 hitter in the middle infield to downgrade him to league average....and have him play a position he hasn't played defensively.

 

I don't see the upside Mike.  In general, I can't ever see a scenario where I'm moving a middle infielder to a corner unless the guy is 40 and can still hit like a machine.  

 

Like I said....it was more a question....but for all the love Eddie gets (former MIF, btw)....he barely outhit Polanco. 

[Dantes929]

 

I think what you see from the statistical analysis is that 1B scoops are an activity that's memorable, not frequent. They're valuable, because they erase a baserunner and frequently save at least 1 base (and can often save more than that), but because of the frequency of the occurrence, it's not as impactful a skill over the course of a season.

 

It sticks out in people's minds because it's a cool play, because it looks impressive (and is!), and it often results in spinning what could be a disaster error into an out, so we remember it. But is it worth trading 5-10 scoops for 15 hrs? It is. There's a reason modern defensive metric have the position adjustments they doing when calculating things like WAR: certain positions just aren't as impactful as others.

 

I love having a 1B who can clean up the poor throws. And there might be a secondary effect that we're not able to quantify (yet) when players who have less reliable arms are throwing to a guy who they know is skilled and handling anything that comes at him...but it's hard to say it's significant.

 

Bottom line: I think we can live defensively with Polanco at SS. Which means we have flexibility in filling in the hole in the middle INF. Get the best player we can at either SS or 2B and feel ok with Polanco manning the other spot. I'm betting it'll be easier to fill 2B with a more impactful player, so I'm ok with keeping Polanco at SS.

I get all that and agree with most of it.   I don't have a ton of faith in all the defensive metrics especially for first basemen.    Are scoops defined as any ball that hits the ground?   If a throw is a little high for a 6' first baseman or a little wide it is an error for the thrower that probably doesn't exist with a taller or more adept first baseman.  It definitely affects the thrower adversely statistically.  Does it also work into the metrics for the first baseman?    Whose home runs are you talking about?    If 30 errors is acceptable for Polanco because he can hit is it still acceptable at 40 errors because the guy he's throwing to doesn't save him as often?       If you are talking about Mauer's home runs it should all be part of the equation but I don't think his defense is insignificant.      

[Doomtints]

 

Polanco's bat plays in the middle infield. I have zero interest in moving it to a corner OF slot.

 

If they're going to replace Kepler, find the .900+ OPS bat they need, not a .750 guy learning the position.

Interesting response. There were 11 players this year with an OPS of over 900, and only two of those players were corner outfielders.

 

So you want the Twins to pick up either Mookie Betts or Christian Yelich? That's the entire universe of players that fit your criteria. Best of luck with that.

[USAFChief]

 

Interesting response. There were 11 players this year with an OPS of over 900, and only two of those players were corner outfielders.

 

So you want the Twins to pick up either Mookie Betts or Christian Yelich? That's the entire universe of players that fit your criteria. Best of luck with that.

I know I don't want a .750 corner outfielder as the primary option. That's how you end up watching the playoffs.

 

In any case, if we're giving up on Kepler, moving Polanco isn't the answer. Go find a bat. 

 

BTW, there were 23 such players in 2017, including 8 OFers. Two more OFers if we take it down to .885.

 

It's not like .900 OPS players are unicorns. Those are the guys we should be looking to find a position for.

[Doomtints]

 

I know I don't want a .750 corner outfielder as the primary option. That's how you end up watching the playoffs.

 

In any case, if we're giving up on Kepler, moving Polanco isn't the answer. Go find a bat. 

 

BTW, there were 23 such players in 2017, including 8 OFers. Two more OFers if we take it down to .885.

 

It's not like .900 OPS players are unicorns. Those are the guys we should be looking to find a position for.

 

Fair enough.

[DocBauer]

Late to this thread but have to make some comments.

 

1] IMO, watching Polanco at SS, I see plenty of athleticism and range. And I've seen him make some outstanding plays! I've also seen some bad throws and bobble/drop some balls he got to. I feel he made real improvement in 2017 defensively, and I also believe the 80 game layoff hurt him defensively in 2018.

 

2] I don't pay a great deal of attention to errors in milb for infielders, particularly for SS and 3B. Why? Fields, the 1B they may be throwing to, as well as the fact that they ARE milb ballplayers still honing their skills. I have spent time, in the past, just examing milb error numbers of a lot of great MLB SS/3B who were All Stars and who even won some Gold Gloves here and there. You would be surprised how many high error season's you'd find if you went looking.

 

Polanco just turned 25 in July. He was a SS, also played 2B, then was a 2B primarily, and then turned back in to a full time SS at the ML level. That has to allow for some growth and adjustment time.

 

All that being said, I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I state that Lewis will almost assuredly be the SS in the next year or two. He is ALSO still learning the position, but reports and very limited eye test show he has all the ability and potential in the world to stick there. So, sooner or later, Polanco needs to move to 2B.

 

The question is: "Is that NOW?"

 

I agree with many here that the object is to get the best overall player whether it be at SS OR 2B. I love the idea of a proposed trade for Starlin Castro and keep Polanco at SS. Not ideal defensively, but OK, IMO, and great offense. I'm also highly in favor of an Iglesius signing until Lewis is ready and moving Polanco to 2B now. I'm honestly not sure which move I like better. And yes, other names could be plugged in here besides those mentioned.

 

I absolutely value quality defense even though baseball has become more HR/launch angle and SO heavy and I think defense has fallen by the wayside somewhat. But even though I value a quality 1B, from what I have seen, we could be fine with Austin, Sano, and even Kepler manning 1B. Were I in charge...still a bit uncertain as which infield spot to make a move on...I'd pay Escobar as starter and bring him back for all the potential scenarios we have already discussed. I would sign Iglesias on a 2-3 year deal, even though I may have to eat the ,last year of his deal, and move Polanco to 2B.

 

I improve my infield defense overall, have positional flexibility at every spot, still have Adrianza as a nice utility player who performs best when playing regular but not starting, and I have, potentially, one heck of an infield.

[DocBauer]

I like this, but who plays SS? Iglesias is a good glove but not much of a hitter and I'm not aware of anyone else out there we could get. Adrianza might be a similar choice since he hit .251 (.680 OPS, 86 OPS+), so a little better bat, little lesser glove. It's going to be hard to carry Buxton and Iglesias in the same batting order, particularly when you add Kepler's below average OF bat. I guess we could pick up a glove first guy but then it's hard to start both Buxton and Kepler. 

 

My other thought would be either: (1) to get a glove first SS like Iglesias, play Rosario and Cave every day in the OF and have Kepler and Buxton as the 3/4 OF guys, or (2) trade for a guy like Starlin Castro to play 2B and then you can play Kepler and Buxton in the OF but you put Cave on the bench when he's a good fielder and a much better hitter so far than either Kepler or Buxton. I would opt for approach #1 - sign Iglesias, move Polanco to 2B, play Cave every day in RF with Buxton in CF and Kepler as 4th OF/LH 1B/LH DH playing 3-4 days a week until he shows he can hit better than he's hit the last 3 years.

 

I liked this post and your points. But I like it somewhat grudgingly. As just stated in my previous post, I am torn on the Iglesius vs Castro move. Benefits both ways.

 

Where I have to disagree somewhat is in regard to the OF. Yes, Buxton is the mystery man, as well as a key to 2019 and beyond. And I like Cave, think he's a keeper who will only get better. But you and I seem to disagree on Kepler. Maybe I'm just an optimist, but I really like what I see in him and I really think he's about to figure it out. The talent and potential are undeniable. His weird splits from his first 2 years to last year are hard to comprehend. (Young, rushed, trying too hard to compensate???) But I just have this feeling he's going to level his splits out in 2019. As much as I like Cave, I think he's going to be a very valuable 4th OF who plays a ton.

[drivlikejehu]

I think Polanco needs to go to 2nd because the Twins desperately need above-average position players out there, and his poor defense at SS would limit Polanco to being around average, even with his offensive ability.

 

The issue of course is that the Twins then need to find an average or better shortstop. Posters here are not too excited about Iglesias, but factoring in defense he's roughly average. Trades are very difficult to project but I'm sure the Twins will explore that avenue.

[rdehring]

Everyone has known since last spring that the Twins would need at least one player in the middle infield this off season.  No one in the minors has shown he is ready to step up and fill that need.  So yes, they need to bring in someone.  Who, where and how he gets here is the question.  The front office gets paid big bucks to make those decisions.  I for one plan to sit back and see what they do.  And yes, I will be elated should that player's initials be EE.

 

 

[stringer bell]

I’ve beaten the drum for Iglesias since September. I’ll add Martin Gonzales as another target. He was All-Star level in ‘17 and still above average 102 OPS+ this year. Historically he’s at least a league-average defensive shortstop and he’s truly versatile. He will be 30 in the spring and want starter money.

[mngopherguy]

I can't definitively say you need to move Polanco or not without knowing the alternatives.  I do think that he is better off at second base in general.  

[Doctor Wu]

 

I've been saying for years that corner OF defense isn't worth worrying about..

That comment makes me think of Delmon Young ... and not in a good way.

[ashbury]

That comment makes me think of Delmon Young ... and not in a good way.

If Delmon had become the .900 OPS hitter the Twins thought they were getting, we would have just accepted the occasional fielding blunder as part of the package.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Delmon had become the .900 OPS hitter the Twins thought they were getting, we would have just accepted the occasional fielding blunder as part of the package.

 

Just as we'd accept a bad but not horrible hitter if his defense was in the top 10 or 20 in all the league..... But, the players we are discussing aren't that at all.

[ashbury]

Just as we'd accept a bad but not horrible hitter if his defense was in the top 10 or 20 in all the league..... But, the players we are discussing aren't that at all.

True, it's a Polanco thread. The tangent about corner OF crept in by stealth.

 

But no, I wouldn't accept a "bad but not horrible hitter" at every given defensive position, such as corner OF. No.

[Mike Sixel]

 

True, it's a Polanco thread. The tangent about corner OF crept in by stealth.

 

But no, I wouldn't accept a "bad but not horrible hitter" at every given defensive position, such as corner OF. No.

 

Now we are really far afield........and in the weeds too.....

 

I predict Polanco is the starting SS next year. 70% likely. 30% likely the starting 2B. 

[Squirrel]

Now we are really far afield........and in the weeds too.....

 

I predict Polanco is the starting SS next year. 70% likely. 30% likely the starting 2B.

 

I wish those numbers were switched and we were seriously looking for an upgrade at SS.

[Physics Guy]

 

I wish those numbers were switched and we were seriously looking for an upgrade at SS.

I concur, just starting to wonder whether Iglesias is that option.  I originally advocated for it, but I wonder if there is a rebuilding team that would be willing to trade a SS that is a step up from Iglesias.

[mngopherguy]

 

 In fact, when was the last time you saw a butcher at first base? Hmm ...

 

 

I'd say Austin.  

[Mr. Brooks]

 

In fact, when was the last time you saw a butcher at first base? Hmm ...

 

 

I'd say Austin.

Tyler Austin had 0 errors, league average range factor, and exactly neutral defensive runs saved.

 

It's fair to argue that he's not a defensive asset over there. But calling him a butcher is certainly not based on any factual data.

Edited October 15, 2018 by Mr. Brooks

[nicksaviking]

Maybe the new strength and conditioning folks can build up Polanco's shoulder strength. He'd probably be quite adequate if his arm wasn't below average. 

 

If we can figure out how to get pitchers to add velocity I'd think you'd be able to do it with a shortstop as well. Anyway, that probably won't be the case but paying some physiology wiz to figure it out sure sounds more economical and practical than paying millions for a sub-par offensive shortstop.

[ashbury]

Maybe the new strength and conditioning folks can build up Polanco's shoulder strength.

It's the thing to try. But it's not as though it hasn't been known as his weak point (no pun intended) as he came up through the minors; I expect strengthening has been tried. Indeed he's been a little better at SS than I ever dared imagine, and I chalk that up to likely extra attention to building up his arm strength further.

[ChrisKnutson]

Polanco’s problem isn’t entirely with his arm strength, nor is it with fielding the ball, the problem is his inefficient (and ugly) throwing mechanics and his extremely slow “catch and release” transition. A shortstop is supposed to (at least) adequately ‘smooth,’ Polanco is not.

[Doomtints]

 

Polanco’s problem isn’t entirely with his arm strength, nor is it with fielding the ball, the problem is his inefficient (and ugly) throwing mechanics and his extremely slow “catch and release” transition. A shortstop is supposed to (at least) adequately ‘smooth,’ Polanco is not.

 

When asked to explain his throwing errors when he was in the minors, Polanco said he likes to throw the ball as hard as he can every time. Wasn't this Eduardo Nunez's problem too?

[ChrisKnutson]

When asked to explain his throwing errors when he was in the minors, Polanco said he likes to throw the ball as hard as he can every time. Wasn't this Eduardo Nunez's problem too?

Not sure about Nuñez, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

 

Also, I think it’s well well known around the Twins community that our development process sucks (Sano, Buxton, Vargas, Gonsalves, Gordon, Meyer, ABWII, Stewart, Jay), but what’s truly embarrassing about this specific situation is that most ‘high school programs’ work on eliminating extra movement through “short arming” the ball as an infielder and making quick “catch and release” transfers, yet a freaking ‘Major League’ organization like Twins can’t instill this in Polanco.

[Linus]

He doesn’t have the requisite arm to play short and he knows it. Hence all the rushed throws and plays. His bat is excellent and he would be a great second baseman. Just put him in a spot to succeed

[mikelink45]

 

Not to mention other 1B also had scoops.....that ability is in the defensive rankings, and there just isn't that much difference between 1B at the MLB level. These guys have been fielding grounders since they were 7 ......or 5.

Maybe we need to look at why he had so many scoops and correct that. 

[dougd]

AJ Hinch reportedly said that Marwin Gonzalez was the best defensive 3B, SS, 2B, and 1B on the Houston roster. I would offer the Twins SS job to him for a couple years.