Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading Molitor

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Grossman is a good role player, as long as the role isn't too big. He takes good at-bats. I said at the beginning of the year that a good team can use 150-200 at-bats from a guy like Grossman over the course of the year; a bad team gives him more than 200. Um, let's see...yep, the Twins this year are a bad team.

Grossman has negative defensive value, his one and only skill is getting on base. He can’t hit, he can’t field, so his “role” is as pinch hit DH when the bases are loaded in the bottom of the 9th so he can try to walk in a run but it’s ok to lose your DH. Meanwhile the rest of your bench consists of a one utility infielder, one 4th outfielder, and a backup catcher.

 

In the age of 13 man pitching staffs, every bench player must have field and hit utility, especially in the AL.

 

Is it Molitor’s fault that Grossman is there? No. It is Molitors fault Grossman was written into the lineup card 300+ times over the last 3 seasons

Edited August 23, 2018 by Sconnie

[Craig Arko]

I’ll give him a GPA of 2.75. Good enough to graduate but not good enough to be accepted in most graduate and professional schools.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Wow....people have been posting about his bullpen use for 3+ years now, so I don't agree that it is hindsight this year. Also, people pointed out in May that he was over using RPs.....and nothing really changed after that. He had 3 RPs in the top 15 in appearances, when the Twins had played less games than all of the majors, and many of those were in appearances that were not high leverage. I don't think it is fair at all to say this is all hindsight.

 

Tony Luvello must be an awful manager then. 

 

Perhaps your point would have more weight if you use three years of data we have for comparison rather than one month.  Maybe you are right, but as stated the argument is pretty weak.

[Riverbrian]

When it comes to bullpen usage. I get the temptation to overuse certain relievers.

 

If a guy is lights out, a manager is gonna want that guy with the ball in his hand. So I can forgive Molitor for this. 

 

However... my question is gonna be... which of our overused guys has been lights out? 

 

If you got Andrew Miller.. the manager is gonna want to use him.

If you have Adam Ottovino... the manager is gonna want to use him. 

Dellin Betances... the manager is gonna want to use him. 

 

Managers may overuse these guys because they want batters out and those guys get batters out fairly consistently. 

 

Our overused guys... Are nothing like these guys. 

 

I was all for signing Addison Reed but when he is being overused and his production is 4 blown saves, 4.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and a 7.5 K/9, you gotta wonder why. 

 

Trevor Hildenberger... I like Hildy... I do.  But he is overused with a 4.48 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a 8.5 K/9. 

 

If a reliever is gonna be over used... His production needs to be better than the guys who are not getting used and this is isn't the case. These guys are not Andrew Miller but Molitor plays them like they are and it has cost us games. 

 

Molitor stays with his guys until it's too late. 

 

His bullpen management is just like his lineup management. Assign roles, lock them down, throw away the key and finally when it gets unbearable after a couple of months... starting looking for the key. 

 

[Riverbrian]

Here's another thing. 

 

Now that Grossman is back.

 

Is Austin going to be limited to facing left handed pitchers? 3 games into the return of Grossman it looks that way. 

 

I don't mind players sitting on occasion and I don't mind Grossman playing but if Grossman is going to take the LIONS SHARE of Austin's playing time... I'm... I'm... not sure what to say. I know i'm not going to be able to defend it. 

 

Tyler Austin's OPS the past 15 days is 1.049 so yeah... umm... I got nothing. 

 

[Don Walcott]

1) Isn’t that the point? No one knows how well or how poorly he would have pitched because he almost never did. Even in blowouts he was rarely used in the beginning.

 

2) At the end of the day, it’s his decision. He’s the one taking the ball from pitcher A and giving it to pitcher B. If he isn’t prepared to own his decisions, he needs the responsibility of making them removed.

I honestly have no idea what you are talking about.

[Don Walcott]

Grossman has negative defensive value, his one and only skill is getting on base. He can’t hit, he can’t field, so his “role” is as pinch hit DH when the bases are loaded in the bottom of the 9th so he can try to walk in a run but it’s ok to lose your DH. Meanwhile the rest of your bench consists of a one utility infielder, one 4th outfielder, and a backup catcher.

 

In the age of 13 man pitching staffs, every bench player must have field and hit utility, especially in the AL.

 

Is it Molitor’s fault that Grossman is there? No. It is Molitors fault Grossman was written into the lineup card 300+ times over the last 3 seasons

I understand your point. But assuming Molitor was stuck with Grossman by the FO, he has to play him, partly because that’s the directive from the FO, and partly because he has limited options.

(Partly because having Grossman on the roster is, in itself, limiting.)

[mikelink45]

 

Shouldn’t Molitor shoulder some of the responsibility for that total system failure?

Were it not for Jim Pohlad publicly saying Molitor was safe, he probably would have been fired two years ago.

More to the point, if it had been Derek Falvey’s decision, he probably would have been fired two years ago.

I believe the rumor that Falvey would have fired Molitor is one of those urban legends that never go away.  If he is truly running the team he could have made it happen.  But we have no sign that there is any issue between FO and Manager.

[mikelink45]

 

When it comes to bullpen usage. I get the temptation to overuse certain relievers.

 

If a guy is lights out, a manager is gonna want that guy with the ball in his hand. So I can forgive Molitor for this. 

 

However... my question is gonna be... which of our overused guys has been lights out? 

 

If you got Andrew Miller.. the manager is gonna want to use him.

If you have Adam Ottovino... the manager is gonna want to use him. 

Dellin Betances... the manager is gonna want to use him. 

 

Managers may overuse these guys because they want batters out and those guys get batters out fairly consistently. 

 

Our overused guys... Are nothing like these guys. 

 

I was all for signing Addison Reed but when he is being overused and his production is 4 blown saves, 4.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and a 7.5 K/9, you gotta wonder why. 

 

Trevor Hildenberger... I like Hildy... I do.  But he is overused with a 4.48 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a 8.5 K/9. 

 

If a reliever is gonna be over used... His production needs to be better than the guys who are not getting used and this is isn't the case. These guys are not Andrew Miller but Molitor plays them like they are and it has cost us games. 

 

Molitor stays with his guys until it's too late. 

 

His bullpen management is just like his lineup management. Assign roles, lock them down, throw away the key and finally when it gets unbearable after a couple of months... starting looking for the key. 

I believe the issue is that we do not have relief pitchers that can be counted on.  Belisle?  We acquired Reed to steady the pen and he has failed.  I suspect there were days that Molitor (or his bench coach or his analytic coach or his bullpen coach or his pitching coach or his assistant pitching coach) might have thought - what the hell we have used him a lot, but who else should we call on?  

This is the issue with the new baseball with starting pitchers going five instead of 7 - 9.  We have 162 games a year where we are going to use 3 -4 relief pitchers a game.  And year to year the relief pitcher is the most unstable, that's why trades don't often work - relief pitchers burn out every year.

[Vanimal46]

When it comes to bullpen usage. I get the temptation to overuse certain relievers.

 

If a guy is lights out, a manager is gonna want that guy with the ball in his hand. So I can forgive Molitor for this.

 

However... my question is gonna be... which of our overused guys has been lights out?

 

If you got Andrew Miller.. the manager is gonna want to use him.

If you have Adam Ottovino... the manager is gonna want to use him.

Dellin Betances... the manager is gonna want to use him.

 

Managers may overuse these guys because they want batters out and those guys get batters out fairly consistently.

 

Our overused guys... Are nothing like these guys.

 

I was all for signing Addison Reed but when he is being overused and his production is 4 blown saves, 4.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and a 7.5 K/9, you gotta wonder why.

 

Trevor Hildenberger... I like Hildy... I do. But he is overused with a 4.48 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a 8.5 K/9.

 

If a reliever is gonna be over used... His production needs to be better than the guys who are not getting used and this is isn't the case. These guys are not Andrew Miller but Molitor plays them like they are and it has cost us games.

 

Molitor stays with his guys until it's too late.

 

His bullpen management is just like his lineup management. Assign roles, lock them down, throw away the key and finally when it gets unbearable after a couple of months... starting looking for the key.

Pressly was very good for the Twins this season. Reed was also very good until the middle of June. Was it overuse that caused his decline in velocity now? Was it an injury that was going to happen regardless?

 

The manager can only put the players on his roster in the game. And those were the best relievers he had. So what is he supposed to do?

Edited August 24, 2018 by Vanimal46

[jimmer]

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that Moloitor has been given strong talent. Compared to contenders, our talent has been lacking (to put it nicely) for quite some time. I don't know how anyone can look at the rosters we've had since Molitor took charge, compare it to the talent on contenders, and say our talent has been strong. The starting pitching along makes that assertion laughable (not that pitching has been the only area we lacked a lot of talent).

[TheLeviathan]

 

Pressly was very good for the Twins this season. Reed was also very good until the middle of June. Was it overuse that caused his decline in velocity now? Was it an injury that was going to happen regardless?

The manager can only put the players on his roster in the game. And those were the best relievers he had. So what is he supposed to do?

 

Also, the other guy we interviewed (Luvello) has 3 players with very similar usage.  

 

Maybe people have to accept that bullpen usage is changing.  This might be driven less by Molitor's personal decisions and more by team, data-driven philosophies.  It appears very much in line with AZ, SFG, and several other teams.  

 

Also, Pressley has appeared once every 2.6 days with Houston.  With Minnesota he appeared once every 2.3 days.  Perhaps these complaints are driven more by perception than fact.  

Edited August 24, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Mike Sixel]

 

Also, the other guy we interviewed (Luvello) has 3 players with very similar usage.  

 

Maybe people have to accept that bullpen usage is changing.  This might be driven less by Molitor's personal decisions and more by team, data-driven philosophies.  It appears very much in line with AZ, SFG, and several other teams.  

 

Also, Pressley has appeared once every 2.6 days with Houston.  With Minnesota he appeared once every 2.3 days.  Perhaps these complaints are driven more by perception than fact.  

 

Certainly possible, I don't watch other teams games....but I do recall that when teh Twins had played less games, they had 3 guys in teh top 15 in usage, that seems odd to me, but maybe it wasn't. Doesn't change my mind about Molitor, I'm hard pressed to say what I like about him at this point. But again, like I said, if they keep him, I won't pull my hair out.

[Vanimal46]

Certainly possible, I don't watch other teams games....but I do recall that when teh Twins had played less games, they had 3 guys in teh top 15 in usage, that seems odd to me, but maybe it wasn't. Doesn't change my mind about Molitor, I'm hard pressed to say what I like about him at this point. But again, like I said, if they keep him, I won't pull my hair out.

That was true at one point in time back in May. We also have to take into consideration the 'hands off' approach of Jim Pohlad.

 

We noticed because we're analyzing data every day. Do you think Jim Pohlad noticed on May 24th that Pressly, Reed, and Hildenberger were top 15 in appearances?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Certainly possible, I don't watch other teams games....but I do recall that when teh Twins had played less games, they had 3 guys in teh top 15 in usage, that seems odd to me, but maybe it wasn't. Doesn't change my mind about Molitor, I'm hard pressed to say what I like about him at this point. But again, like I said, if they keep him, I won't pull my hair out.

 

And that's fair, I think most angst or praise for a manager comes down to perception bias.  And we're all entitled to that opinion, I just think all of us have no leg to stand on for knowing what they are actually doing.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that Moloitor has been given strong talent. Compared to contenders, our talent has been lacking (to put it nicely) for quite some time. I don't know how anyone can look at the rosters we've had since Molitor took charge, compare it to the talent on contenders, and say our talent has been strong. The starting pitching along makes that assertion laughable (not that pitching has been the only area we lacked a lot of talent).

 

Is it as much talent, or not being able to develop it? I think there's plenty of talent on the roster, but for various reasons, the team hasn't gotten a lot out of them. Some of that is on Molly. Most of it is probably on people who aren't with the Twins anymore. 

[jjswol]

I give him a D and that is being generous. His use of the bullpen has been terrible and his players keep making the same mistakes. Falvey and Levine would be foolish to keep this old war-horse pulling the Twins wagon.

 

[Vanimal46]

I give him a D and that is being generous. His use of the bullpen has been terrible and his players keep making the same mistakes. Falvey and Levine would be foolish to keep this old war-horse pulling the Twins wagon.

Terrible compared to who?

Edited August 24, 2018 by Vanimal46

[Mike Sixel]

 

Still, it's only one game. 

 

How many games, in how many opportunities, has it been now? 

[yarnivek1972]

That was true at one point in time back in May. We also have to take into consideration the 'hands off' approach of Jim Pohlad.

 

We noticed because we're analyzing data every day. Do you think Jim Pohlad noticed on May 24th that Pressly, Reed, and Hildenberger were top 15 in appearances?

I don’t know what the exact date was, but it was well after May 24. It might have been late June, early July when Reed, Hildenberger and Pressly were all in the top 15 in the AL for appearances and relief IP (with Pressly at 1 or 2). Again, this is when the Twins had played 3 fewer games than every other team in the league.

 

Edit - Here you go: On July 5, shortly before Reed went on the DL, he appeared in his 40th game in team game 84.

 

On July 6, Pressly appeared in his 44th game in team game 86. In that same game, Hildenberger made appearance # 40.

 

 

THREE relievers with over 40 games by team game 86. That is why they have struggled at times. They’ve been worked into the ground.

Edited August 24, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[yarnivek1972]

And don’t even get me started about the week in which Zach Duke had FOUR twenty plus pitch appearances.

 

That is just plain dumb.

[Vanimal46]

I don’t know what the exact date was, but it was well after May 24. It might have been late June, early July when Reed, Hildenberger and Pressly were all in the top 15 in the AL for appearances and relief IP (with Pressly at 1 or 2). Again, this is when the Twins had played 3 fewer games than every other team in the league.

 

Edit - Here you go: On July 5, shortly before Reed went on the DL, he appeared in his 40th game in team game 84.

 

On July 6, Pressly appeared in his 44th game in team game 86. In that same game, Hildenberger made appearance # 40.

 

 

THREE relievers with over 40 games by team game 86. That is why they have struggled at times. They’ve been worked into the ground.

The exact date is irrelevant. Do you think Jim Pohlad noticed this? Did anyone point it out to him?

 

We as fans look at things on a micro level. Executive people look at things on a macro level.

[Don Walcott]

 

1) Isn’t that the point? No one knows how well or how poorly he would have pitched because he almost never did. Even in blowouts he was rarely used in the beginning.

2) At the end of the day, it’s his decision. He’s the one taking the ball from pitcher A and giving it to pitcher B. If he isn’t prepared to own his decisions, he needs the responsibility of making them removed.

1) Wrong. Magill pitched 12 times in his first 30 days with the team. Then, in June, he got pounded as a long reliever, which probably led to him not pitching much in the beginning of July.  He's pitched 10 times in a more traditional role in the last 31 days. This is a complaint that only seems valid because it's repeated so many times.

 

2) I honestly have no idea whether Molitor takes responsibility for his decisions, and I never said anything to imply that he was or was not taking responsibility. But if the decision he has to make is whether to put Belisle or Magill into a tie game in the 10th at Fenway, he's been set up to fail. There have been a lot of times this year when it seems there is no good option in the bullpen, which makes it easy for critics to claim that he made the wrong decision after the fact.

 

And if he's not listening to his bullpen coach and pitching coach about who is ready to pitch at any given time, and just making decisions on his own, then that would be problematic.

[Twins33]

Austin has an .833 OPS against RH starting pitching, which is better than his hitting against LH starters. He struggles against RH relievers, probably because RH relievers tend to throw harder..

That stat surprised me so much that I had to go look.

 

Would be very nice if he's not a platoon guy. This is the first year that he's done that, but the other years the sample sizes are extremely tiny. He definitely should play over Grossman as I think they need an upgrade over Grossman this offseason anyway.

[Twins33]

A big meh

Same.

 

The bullpen usage drives me insane. Also the catering to vets. I like Dozier, but he shouldn't have been deciding where he bats.

[Riverbrian]

 

I believe the issue is that we do not have relief pitchers that can be counted on.  Belisle?  We acquired Reed to steady the pen and he has failed.  I suspect there were days that Molitor (or his bench coach or his analytic coach or his bullpen coach or his pitching coach or his assistant pitching coach) might have thought - what the hell we have used him a lot, but who else should we call on?  

This is the issue with the new baseball with starting pitchers going five instead of 7 - 9.  We have 162 games a year where we are going to use 3 -4 relief pitchers a game.  And year to year the relief pitcher is the most unstable, that's why trades don't often work - relief pitchers burn out every year.

 

Do we not have anyone else to turn to... or do we not turn to them? If you compare the stats of Reed and Magill there is no CURRENT statistical reason to trust Reed over Magill. It is Magill with the better numbers. So why did Molitor trust Reed and not trust Magill? 

 

Reed went belly up on us for a long stretch. Molitor's solution to that was to keep handing Reed the ball in key situations and say I trust you. 

 

My point is: If you are going to overuse a bullpen arm... I get the temptation to do so. BUT... that overused arm better have Adam Ottovino type production otherwise you are wasting average production from the back end of the pen in order to overuse below average production from the front end like we did with Reed. 

 

This hard headed, stubborn, Hubris that makes a manager think: Reed is my set up guy, Magill is my long guy regardless of the results and this has hurt us. Molitor is too slow to adjust to the changing conditions and I hold him responsible for it. 

 

If you want to play Morrison every day... OK... but Morrison needs to produce like an every day player. If you want Reed to be your main set up guy... OK... but he has to deserve the job. If they don't... then a manager must adjust and it shouldn't take 3 months to come to these conclusions. 

 

Molitor might as well make out his lineup cards for all 162 games on March 28th and put his feet up for the year and see where fate takes the team because it's out of his control. 

 

This is my issue with Molitor... He stuck with the players and I'm not buying the argument that we had nobody else. Every single player on the roster had the ability to out produce Morrison. Every single pitcher on the roster had the ability to out produce what Reed was doing. 

 

I know most of the TD Crew doesn't like Grossman. However... Grossman was out performing Morrison and Buxton and Molitor chose Morrison and Buxton... Now we have Austin out performing Grossman and he is choosing Grossman. 

 

It's like he is playing the guy producing less on purpose just to drive me crazy... Like he is waiting until someone (Austin) actually out performs Grossman before he gives Grossman playing time.  

 

He does the same stuff in the bullpen.  

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Pressly was very good for the Twins this season. Reed was also very good until the middle of June. Was it overuse that caused his decline in velocity now? Was it an injury that was going to happen regardless?

The manager can only put the players on his roster in the game. And those were the best relievers he had. So what is he supposed to do?

 

I'm not knocking Pressly but Reed went sour and stayed sour for quite some time. Hildenberger has been really sour lately and he is currently getting more save chances than the others. 

 

They were not the best relievers that he had. They were the best relievers according to him and those relievers made him look like he doesn't know what he is talking about. 

 

[jimmer]

Is it as much talent, or not being able to develop it? I think there's plenty of talent on the roster, but for various reasons, the team hasn't gotten a lot out of them. Some of that is on Molly. Most of it is probably on people who aren't with the Twins anymore.

While we have some talent, it's not near what real contenders have and I think it's miraculous we have even managed to have a winning record in two of the last four years. I didn't expect us to have one this year. You can't go far without quality starting pitching, which we haven't had in quite some time. That falls on FOs and minor league development. Maybe even the people who draft our guys. Edited August 24, 2018 by jimmer

[Vanimal46]

I'm not knocking Pressly but Reed went sour and stayed sour for quite some time. Hildenberger has been really sour lately and he is currently getting more save chances than the others.

 

They were not the best relievers that he had. They were the best relievers according to him and those relievers made him look like he doesn't know what he is talking about.

Who were better options than them earlier this season? The cupboards were pretty bare.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who were better options than them earlier this season? The cupboards were pretty bare.

 

If you only pitch three players....you aren't playing for the long haul of 162 games, no matter how good or bad they are. The FO signed three FA RPs, and there were other players already the roster. If people are contending there were only three RP options, then I don't think we agree on the early season options.