Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading Molitor

[mikelink45]

 

Do we not have anyone else to turn to... or do we not turn to them? If you compare the stats of Reed and Magill there is no CURRENT statistical reason to trust Reed over Magill. It is Magill with the better numbers. So why did Molitor trust Reed and not trust Magill? 

 

Reed went belly up on us for a long stretch. Molitor's solution to that was to keep handing Reed the ball in key situations and say I trust you. 

 

My point is: If you are going to overuse a bullpen arm... I get the temptation to do so. BUT... that overused arm better have Adam Ottovino type production otherwise you are wasting average production from the back end of the pen in order to overuse below average production from the front end like we did with Reed. 

 

This hard headed, stubborn, Hubris that makes a manager think: Reed is my set up guy, Magill is my long guy regardless of the results and this has hurt us. Molitor is too slow to adjust to the changing conditions and I hold him responsible for it. 

 

If you want to play Morrison every day... OK... but Morrison needs to produce like an every day player. If you want Reed to be your main set up guy... OK... but he has to deserve the job. If they don't... then a manager must adjust and it shouldn't take 3 months to come to these conclusions. 

 

Molitor might as well make out his lineup cards for all 162 games on March 28th and put his feet up for the year and see where fate takes the team because it's out of his control. 

 

This is my issue with Molitor... He stuck with the players and I'm not buying the argument that we had nobody else. Every single player on the roster had the ability to out produce Morrison. Every single pitcher on the roster had the ability to out produce what Reed was doing. 

 

I know most of the TD Crew doesn't like Grossman. However... Grossman was out performing Morrison and Buxton and Molitor chose Morrison and Buxton... Now we have Austin out performing Grossman and he is choosing Grossman. 

 

It's like he is playing the guy producing less on purpose just to drive me crazy... Like he is waiting until someone (Austin) actually out performs Grossman before he gives Grossman playing time.  

 

He does the same stuff in the bullpen.  

I do not argue with the details in your posting - just the position that it is all Molitors fault.  I must repeat that this FO set him up with a multitude of check valves.  Hey Derek Shelton, what do you do besides weigh down the bench?  What questions do you ask, what advise do you give?  Hey Galvin Alston - the pitchers are your responsibility.  Do you say - Paul do not use?  Does Paul ignore your sage advice?  Eddie Guardado you were a relief pitcher (I know Every Day Eddie) but do you provide the manager with advice on who and when to use pitchers?  Nate Damman (I did not even know we had him) you are the bullpen catcher.  Do you ever say - he does not have it?  Jeff Pickler, you deserve my greatest ire - you are the analytics guy.  You bring new ideas.  What are those ideas?  What are your stats?  Do you stop bad tendencies?  Molitor might be horrible, but if he is, then what do these characters contribute and of course who hired them - the Front Office.  I will not pursue Rowson, Glynn, Smith, and Hernandez on who starts and who doesn't.  The fact is blaming the manager is no longer acceptable as our frustration grows - it should be placed on the staff and the Front Office. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Who were better options than them earlier this season? The cupboards were pretty bare.

 

Better options?... How bout Equal options? Because we had plenty of equal options, just go ahead and pick one. 

 

Just so I'm better understood.

 

BTW... I am not making an "overuse" claim... Others are. It's possible that overuse factored in to the June versions of Pressly and Reed, however, everybody has different thresholds that I am not privy to. 

 

My point is simple... We didn't have a single reliever that was better than the other relievers all year. So if relievers were indeed overused... why were they?

 

You are asking me to name someone better... I can't... but, I'll return the question to you... Can you name someone better? Look at the numbers... you can't either. 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I do not argue with the details in your posting - just the position that it is all Molitors fault.  I must repeat that this FO set him up with a multitude of check valves.  Hey Derek Shelton, what do you do besides weigh down the bench?  What questions do you ask, what advise do you give?  Hey Galvin Alston - the pitchers are your responsibility.  Do you say - Paul do not use?  Does Paul ignore your sage advice?  Eddie Guardado you were a relief pitcher (I know Every Day Eddie) but do you provide the manager with advice on who and when to use pitchers?  Nate Damman (I did not even know we had him) you are the bullpen catcher.  Do you ever say - he does not have it?  Jeff Pickler, you deserve my greatest ire - you are the analytics guy.  You bring new ideas.  What are those ideas?  What are your stats?  Do you stop bad tendencies?  Molitor might be horrible, but if he is, then what do these characters contribute and of course who hired them - the Front Office.  I will not pursue Rowson, Glynn, Smith, and Hernandez on who starts and who doesn't.  The fact is blaming the manager is no longer acceptable as our frustration grows - it should be placed on the staff and the Front Office. 

 

I agree

 

I do not know who is making the decisions, who are the advocates and who are the dissenters, who are the loud voices in the room and who are the quiet ones but all of those people you list have jobs with important duties and are no doubt a part of any equation. 

 

I can only assume Molitor because the Twins were doing the same crap in 2016 and Molitor is the only common denominator in 2016 and 2018 and he has the type of role that would normally influence player usage. 

 

However, in the end... If you got a problem. You start by focusing on the people who hire the people. 

[Platoon]

MOY? Friday night. Man on second, down 1-0, no outs. Bunts his 4 hitter Polanco, and Sano hits the sac fly. They score a run, but effectively limit any damage to one run. In the fourth inning? I could see this late in a game, when one run does serious damage. I have said it before, and repeat. Being a MLB HOF member does not guarantee a feel for the game. He never seems to think any further than the inning right in front of him.

[mikelink45]

 

MOY? Friday night. Man on second, down 1-0, no outs. Bunts his 4 hitter Polanco, and Sano hits the sac fly. They score a run, but effectively limit any damage to one run. In the fourth inning? I could see this late in a game, when one run does serious damage. I have said it before, and repeat. Being a MLB HOF member does not guarantee a feel for the game. He never seems to think any further than the inning right in front of him.

We scored and we do not do that often.  I am happy with it.

[jimmer]

 

We scored and we do not do that often.  I am happy with it.

we are middle of the AL in scoring.  maybe this kind of strategy is why we aren't a bit higher...

[Riverbrian]

 

MOY? Friday night. Man on second, down 1-0, no outs. Bunts his 4 hitter Polanco, and Sano hits the sac fly. They score a run, but effectively limit any damage to one run. In the fourth inning? I could see this late in a game, when one run does serious damage. I have said it before, and repeat. Being a MLB HOF member does not guarantee a feel for the game. He never seems to think any further than the inning right in front of him.

 

Self Inflicted Old School

[USAFChief]

We scored and we do not do that often.  I am happy with it.

You’re happy with a sac bunt in the 4th inning? From the middle of the order no less?

 

Not me.

[Platoon]

The exact date is irrelevant. Do you think Jim Pohlad noticed this? Did anyone point it out to him?

We as fans look at things on a micro level. Executive people look at things on a macro level.

If JP did not notice this, nor pays enough attention to detail to have a chance to, then perhaps he should let his baseball people make the managerial decisions, and he should concentrate on managing dads estate?

[Vanimal46]

Better options?... How bout Equal options? Because we had plenty of equal options, just go ahead and pick one.

 

Just so I'm better understood.

 

BTW... I am not making an "overuse" claim... Others are. It's possible that overuse factored in to the June versions of Pressly and Reed, however, everybody has different thresholds that I am not privy to.

 

My point is simple... We didn't have a single reliever that was better than the other relievers all year. So if relievers were indeed overused... why were they?

 

You are asking me to name someone better... I can't... but, I'll return the question to you... Can you name someone better? Look at the numbers... you can't either.

I can't name someone better and that's the problem. The lack of talent in the bullpen isn't the manager's fault. If Molitor managed the Yankees bullpen I would venture to guess there's no complaints about overusing players and keeping failing players around.

 

The team needs better options than Hildy, Reed, and Duke. As well as better reinforcements than Busenitz, Curtiss, and Duffey.

Edited August 25, 2018 by Vanimal46

[mikelink45]

 

we are middle of the AL in scoring.  maybe this kind of strategy is why we aren't a bit higher...

Look at who we have played the most, we should be scoring and middle of the pack is not that great for this young dynamic team with all its players (except Buxton) in place.  Look at last night at Oakland - one run and all we can do is talk about Mauers counting stat.  Baseball has changed in so many ways and one is the tanking teams syndrome.  We have half the teams playing terrible baseball and half the teams playing great.  To be in the middle is not a good place to be - https://youtu.be/eFOY6KJlFEg 

 

And I'm just a little bit caught in the middle
I try to keep going but it's not that simple
I think I'm a little bit caught in the middle
Gotta keep going or they'll call me a quitter
Yeah, I'm caught in the middle
No, I don't need no help
I can sabotage me by myself

[mikelink45]

 

You’re happy with a sac bunt in the 4th inning? From the middle of the order no less?

Not me.

There is no real middle of the order for this team.  Sano batting 214 as clean up hitter?

[wsnydes]

There is no real middle of the order for this team. Sano batting 214 as clean up hitter?

So shouldn't you try to maximize scoring chances instead of playing for one run an inning? It's one thing if it were late in the game, but the 4th inning isn't late in the game.

[mikelink45]

 

So shouldn't you try to maximize scoring chances instead of playing for one run an inning? It's one thing if it were late in the game, but the 4th inning isn't late in the game.

i love how this is gaining so much attention.  Because of the quality of the Twins bats I want bunts, stolen bases, hit and run (they might not be able to do this).  Sano 210, Austin 239, Kepler 233.  Those are the big bombers?  This team can play for one run early, get a lead, get confidence and swing for the fences in other situations.  Rosario is the only player left on the team with more than 50 RBIs.  Who do I trust?  Rosario, Garver, and Kepler are the only players on the team with an offensive WAR over 1.  

[howieramone2]

 

You’re happy with a sac bunt in the 4th inning? From the middle of the order no less?

Not me.

I loved it. Polanco is our best bunter and he set up Sano with practically a give me. 

[howieramone2]

 

I can't name someone better and that's the problem. The lack of talent in the bullpen isn't the manager's fault. If Molitor managed the Yankees bullpen I would venture to guess there's no complaints about overusing players and keeping failing players around.

The team needs better options than Hildy, Reed, and Duke. As well as better reinforcements than Busenitz, Curtiss, and Duffey.

I agree. I would be surprised if most or at least many of our moves, don't involve the pen.

[Brandon Warne]

 

How many games, in how many opportunities, has it been now? 

 

I mean if you want to ignore that Grossman is hitting .315/.386/.427 since July 1, sure.

[wsnydes]

i love how this is gaining so much attention. Because of the quality of the Twins bats I want bunts, stolen bases, hit and run (they might not be able to do this). Sano 210, Austin 239, Kepler 233. Those are the big bombers? This team can play for one run early, get a lead, get confidence and swing for the fences in other situations. Rosario is the only player left on the team with more than 50 RBIs. Who do I trust? Rosario, Garver, and Kepler are the only players on the team with an offensive WAR over 1.

I guess that's part of my argument. Why wouldn't you maximize the few opportunities you do have? It's difficult to win scoring just one run and the odds are only marginally better than getting shut out, so why not try to score as many as you can?

 

You're right though, this does get too much attention. Far bigger issues with this club.

[mikelink45]

 

I guess that's part of my argument. Why wouldn't you maximize the few opportunities you do have? It's difficult to win scoring just one run and the odds are only marginally better than getting shut out, so why not try to score as many as you can?

You're right though, this does get too much attention. Far bigger issues with this club.

Thanks for your response - tthis really is about the fact that we are so desperate that we worry about one run in the middle of one game.

[ashbury]

I mean if you want to ignore that Grossman is hitting .315/.386/.427 since July 1, sure.

Players have ups and downs during a season. If Grossman wants to be useful, the highs need to be higher and/or more numerous, or else the lows less low. He's not a big cog in the machine but his first three months, while the team was burying itself for post-season relevance, contributed.

[Platoon]

I loved it. Polanco is our best bunter and he set up Sano with practically a give me.

 

The single act itself is not the problem. The problem is the timeline, 4th inning. The problem is it basically eliminated any chance of scoring a "crooked" number. The problem is to score around 5 runs per game, you would have needed to do this 4 out of the last 5 innings to get to that 5 run average. The problem is our pitching staff generally does not support low run outcomes. Speaking of problems, I would have not had a problem with the play if it had tied or given a lead in the bottom of the 8th. This didn't. This was a move that would have caused fans at a Legion game to question whether their coach knew what he was doing!

[Riverbrian]

 

I can't name someone better and that's the problem. The lack of talent in the bullpen isn't the manager's fault. If Molitor managed the Yankees bullpen I would venture to guess there's no complaints about overusing players and keeping failing players around.

The team needs better options than Hildy, Reed, and Duke. As well as better reinforcements than Busenitz, Curtiss, and Duffey.

 

I agree. I've wanted the Twins to get bullpen serious for quite some time. No sense getting bullpen serious when someone in the room is recommending Belisle and someone is riding three guys with the same numbers as three other guys that he is shy about using. 

[USAFChief]

Thanks for your response - tthis really is about the fact that we are so desperate that we worry about one run in the middle of one game.

No, it's not about one PA.

 

It's about the mindset of playing for one run early in ANY ballgame. This was just an example.

[Platoon]

No, it's not about one PA.

It's about the mindset of playing for one run early in ANY ballgame. This was just an example.

And it's about, as an aside, pulling Stewart with two outs in the fifth the other night. That's a "message" that's normally reserved for a pitcher who displeases his manager for some reason or another. TK was quite fond of it as a disciplinary maneuver. In this case Stewart should have been given a chance to get that last out as a confidence booster. That is if he hadn't been pitching (unknowingly) in the 7th game of the WS!

[Brandon Warne]

 

Players have ups and downs during a season. If Grossman wants to be useful, the highs need to be higher and/or more numerous, or else the lows less low. He's not a big cog in the machine but his first three months, while the team was burying itself for post-season relevance, contributed.

 

I mean I get that, but if the argument is that he should never play, I don't really agree. 

[ashbury]

I mean I get that, but if the argument is that he should never play, I don't really agree. 

Anyone on the roster shouldn't play "never". On page 8 of a thread still nominally about Paul Molitor, I'm fine with this degree of accord reached.

[Mr. Brooks]

I mean I get that, but if the argument is that he should never play, I don't really agree.

Do you think Grossman has a realistic chance of being a part of the next Twins WS team?

[Riverbrian]

 

I hear that the Chicago starter last night throws pretty hard. hmmm Austin sits. Rodon not as hard, Austin plays

 

Our... Kopech is right handed and Rodon is left handed. 

[jimmer]

 

Do you think Grossman has a realistic chance of being a part of the next Twins WS team?

Well, I doubt he'll be playing in his fifties.

[Riverbrian]

 

I understand your point. But assuming Molitor was stuck with Grossman by the FO, he has to play him, partly because that’s the directive from the FO, and partly because he has limited options.
(Partly because having Grossman on the roster is, in itself, limiting.)

 

Can you be sure that Molitor wasn't in the room advocating Grossman on the roster? 

 

I can't... so I'm not comfortable with "stuck". 

 

I'd like to blame Molitor or the front office for everything but I can't be sure where the decisions we see are coming from.