Article: Thrift Shop: 3 Sneaky Finds by the Front Office

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins' 2018 bullpen has the club's best league-adjusted xFIP since 2008 (and that's a tie). The last clearly superior bullpen was 2006.

 

So, the 'Falvey sucks at bullpens' notion is badly lacking in empirical support.

Any particular post or poster you are responding to here?

[drivlikejehu]

 

While I agree they aren't bad, shouldn't the comparison be to the league, not how bad the Twins were?

 

On that front, they do ok.....league median in WAR and other measures.

 

On the general topic.....I don't know why we have to discuss all the bad decisions, in order to discuss some good ones (or not good ones, depending on you feel about these three decisions). That seems like a tough bar to cross for every conversation.

 

Well it's not wrong to consider their position relative to the league, but it's certainly relevant that we're only in year 2 of the new regime.

 

 

Any particular post or poster you are responding to here?

 

Not really. Posts on the 2018 bullpen have ranged overwhelmingly from skeptical to highly critical . . . I think there's a place for consideration of actual results. Drake is just the latest example (which isn't to say that he's anything special). 

 

I mean, it's the best Twins bullpen in 10 years and posters are complaining about the loss of a replacement-level lefty-specialist (Rosario). That's not a reasonable mindset to have.

[USAFChief]

 

Well it's not wrong to consider their position relative to the league, but it's certainly relevant that we're only in year 2 of the new regime.

 

 

 

Not really. Posts on the 2018 bullpen have ranged overwhelmingly from skeptical to highly critical . . . I think there's a place for consideration of actual results. Drake is just the latest example (which isn't to say that he's anything special). 

 

I mean, it's the best Twins bullpen in 10 years and posters are complaining about the loss of a replacement-level lefty-specialist (Rosario). That's not a reasonable mindset to have.

10th in the American League in ERA.

 

2 spots better than 2017. 5 spots better than 2016. The same as 2015.

[rv78]

You have all 3 players over-valued based on a small sample size of performance. I highly doubt the Yankees will miss Cave or Austin yet you think they were great pick-ups? No one else could find a place for Drake but he miraculously becomes a fixture in the Twins pen? Sorry. When other teams castoffs are the better players on your team it only tells you what the current condition is of what you already have. 

Why do you suppose it is that certain opposing players always perform better against the Twins than they do against other clubs? Because of the level of talent they are facing. Period!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I mean, it's the best Twins bullpen in 10 years and posters are complaining about the loss of a replacement-level lefty-specialist (Rosario). That's not a reasonable mindset to have.

Sure, I don't really care much about the loss of Rosario. But I'm not sure "best in 10 years by one measure" means that much either. Especially when the best relievers by that measure were inherited from the previous front office, and the very best one was already traded.

 

For long term pieces, they've added Moya, Magill, and now Drake, with Kinley and Haley in the rear view mirror. For shorter term pieces, they've added Rodney, Duke, Reed, Belisle (twice), Breslow.

 

I won't argue that they are failures or anythint, but I think it's fair to question whether they've moved the needle yet in the MLB bullpen.

[TwinsWonWithHunter]

Why is Lynn an underperforming malcontent? He had a wretched April, to be sure, but was more or less serviceable after that. I don't recall him saying anything untoward, or being disruptive.

[Thrylos]

 

 

I won't argue that they are failures or anythint, but I think it's fair to question whether they've moved the needle yet in the MLB bullpen.

 

I would argue that they did not move the needle that much yet because even if they did (which would had cost additional assets)  wouldn't be enough by itself for the team to contend deep in the postseason, and it is worth to save those assets to move multiple needles when they deem that the team can.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would argue that they did not move the needle that much yet because even if they did (which would had cost additional assets) wouldn't be enough by itself for the team to contend deep in the postseason, and it is worth to save those assets to move multiple needles when they deem that the team can.

Good bullpen moves don't necessarily cost much in assets. Brandon Morrow in 2017, Blake Parker, Kirby Yates. I wouldn't even be upset if we tried a few of those types and failed -- we just haven't even been attempting them much -- in some ways, Drake is the first, and maybe quite late. I would have preferred seeing some different arms earlier in the Haley, Kinley, Breslow, and 2018 Belisle spots -- felt like too much low upside wheel spinning.

 

Again, not that this makes the new FO a failure -- but it doesn't really make them successful yet either.

[Platoon]

Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.

He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

Or you could do what St. Louis has done successfully and broke some of these guys in on relief duty.

[beckmt]

Don't forget Burdi who may prove us very bad next year. Not willing to give the FO a pass at this point.

[launchingthrees]

 

You have all 3 players over-valued based on a small sample size of performance. I highly doubt the Yankees will miss Cave or Austin yet you think they were great pick-ups? No one else could find a place for Drake but he miraculously becomes a fixture in the Twins pen? Sorry. When other teams castoffs are the better players on your team it only tells you what the current condition is of what you already have. 

Why do you suppose it is that certain opposing players always perform better against the Twins than they do against other clubs? Because of the level of talent they are facing. Period!

 

They may have thought he was expendable this spring but we have more information now and I don't think there's a single MLB team that would drop Cave given his 800 OPS over 160PAs in the majors. It's also not totally unexpected. He's been hitting quite well at every level in 2017/2018. Is it a mirage? Maybe. We'll see.

 

Every projection system has him as a 700+ OPS guy moving forward. Add in 5 years of team control and the ability to play all 3 outfield positions and he is a valuable asset. Sometimes the Yankees get it wrong too.

Edited August 22, 2018 by launchingthrees

[ken]

Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.

He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

I have no doubt this would have been true. But based on results,it is another example of a big misjudgment by the front office. Edited August 22, 2018 by ken

[The Wise One]

 

Good pick ups.  For the 2018 Twins.  However, the question we all should be asking is whether any of the 3 would have had a place in the 25 men rosters of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros.

Because that's where the bar has to be set if the Twins were to be competitive in the post-season ever again.

 

Not at the Detroit and White Sox levels...

Cave is hitting better than Gardner, Austin hit better than Bird.  The Yankees were kind of stuck with Gardner. Of course if they hadn't traded their back up back up catcher a few years ago for a struggling outfielder they would need Cave. Timing for a team is everything. Just ask an Astos fan about JD Martinez.  Bird has more potential probably than Austin, but he has not come through just yet. So they could have had a place on the Yankees. Relievers. Seems like a contender could always use a better one.  

Edited August 22, 2018 by The Wise One

[drivlikejehu]

 

10th in the American League in ERA.

 

2 spots better than 2017. 5 spots better than 2016. The same as 2015.

 

So, your counter-argument is that Falvey has improved the bullpen's performance in each of his first two years. OK.

[wabene]

Why do you suppose it is that certain opposing players always perform better against the Twins than they do against other clubs? Because of the level of talent they are facing. Period!

Maybe you never saw the look on Chris Sale's face when he was getting rocked again by the lowly twins a couple of years ago. The only team he was struggling against in a very stark statistical contrast. Your just cherry picking. Not just players but small runs they go on. Goodrum was doing great until he struck out against hildy with the game on the line. Sometimes wee see what we want to see.

[The Wise One]

 

 Sometimes wee see what we want to see.

No wiser words typed. Great take

Edited August 22, 2018 by The Wise One

[Otto von Ballpark]

So, your counter-argument is that Falvey has improved the bullpen's performance in each of his first two years. OK.

I'll help him out.

 

By ERA-, this is the Twins third-worst pen performance of the Gardy/Molitor era, behind only 2011 and 2016:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2002&ind=1&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d

[Major League Ready]

 

Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.
He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

 

Which is why he chose to go to SF.  His father was interviewed on MLB Radio and said the Twins wanted to sign him when he became a minor league free agent but Derek felt he had fewer young SPs to compete with in SF. Perhaps there is something I am not aware of with MiLB free agents but this was not a case of the Twins be unwilling to put him on the 40 man. I am missing something because numerous people have made it sound like the twins had "control" of this situation?

[ashbury]

Perhaps there is something I am not aware of with MiLB free agents but this was not a case of the Twins be unwilling to put him on the 40 man. I am missing something because numerous people have made it sound like the twins had "control" of this situation?

I don't think minor leaguers on the 40-man roster can be free-agents except through major league service time. With limited minor league options, that time can be lengthy but not infinite. The Twins had the choice to retain Rodriguez's services this way.

[Tomj14]

 

Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.
He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

What you say is true, the question is what did the Twins miss putting him behind them, because so far he has been way better than any of them.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'll help him out.

By ERA-, this is the Twins third-worst pen performance of the Gardy/Molitor era, behind only 2011 and 2016:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2002&ind=1&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d

 

So what you're saying is, Falvey's bullpen has performed better in both of his seasons than the one he inherited. OK.

[Twins33]

Which is why he chose to go to SF.  His father was interviewed on MLB Radio and said the Twins wanted to sign him when he became a minor league free agent but Derek felt he had fewer young SPs to compete with in SF. Perhaps there is something I am not aware of with MiLB free agents but this was not a case of the Twins be unwilling to put him on the 40 man. I am missing something because numerous people have made it sound like the twins had "control" of this situation?

As Ashburyjohn said, the Twins could have kept him. He became a minor league FA because the Twins didn't put him on the 40 man roster. If they put him on the 40 man he wouldn't have been able to go anywhere and the Twins would have had three option years before he was forced to be on the 25 man. A player can't just leave the organization and sign with another team (example Lewis can't leave right now and sign with someone else). If the Twins don't add Lewis before he becomes a minor league FA, he's free to do whatever he wants when he becomes a minor league FA.

 

It was the case of the Twins not putting him on the 40 man and allowing him to become a FA and then after free agency he had a better path to MLB via SF than here.

 

Here's an article about it from the offseason: https://puckettspond.com/2017/10/22/minnesota-twins-rule-5-and-minor-league-free-agent-preview/

[howieramone2]

 

Don't most front offices add a few of these types most years? I mean, they still might be interesting guys to analyze, but I hesitate about giving too much credit to the FO for acquiring them yet.

It's kind of like the offseason last year -- acquiring Odorizzi and the free agents we signed was considered solid by most, but honestly felt more like a minimum acceptable standard given our needs and resources -- had we done less than that, I think it would have felt like a disappointment.

Likewise, us failing to acquire a few complementary pieces in 2018 on the current level of Cave, Austin, and Drake would probably have been bad, considering the alternatives. (Imagine if Vargas was back in Minnesota, or Boshers, or Belisle -- wait, scratch that last one ).

Yeah, why give them credit for continued excellence. The 2017 draft appears strong, the 2017/18 off season was the most active ever and we picked up a bunch of board scapegoats. TD can never have enough scapegoats. The 2018 trade deadline will make us into a top 5 farm system. My personal favorite was the Hughes trade. The board was screaming to DFA Hughes and we saved 7.25M to use in free agency this off season by including a measly 2nd round pick. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What you say is true, the question is what did the Twins miss putting him behind them, because so far he has been way better than any of them.

his results, for one. Go take a look at his AA numbers in his final season in AA with us. I liked Rodriguez personally, but he was at best a bubble candidate on the 40 man at that point. His ERA was barely under 4. His K/9 rate was under 8. He was also 25 in AA. He wasn't taken in Rule V either, so everyone else 'missed' it too. He left as a FA to a place where he had less competition. That's not bad.

[howieramone2]

 

Yeah it's premature to call this trade a win for the Twins. Is Cave bringing something to the table that Wade couldn't do? Or even Granite if he wasn't injured.

Corner outfielders without any pop are a dime a dozen. Wade and Granite will have to be content being board favorites. 

[SwainZag]

 

his results, for one. Go take a look at his AA numbers in his final season in AA with us. I liked Rodriguez personally, but he was at best a bubble candidate on the 40 man at that point. His ERA was barely under 4. His K/9 rate was under 8. He was also 25 in AA. He wasn't taken in Rule V either, so everyone else 'missed' it too. He left as a FA to a place where he had less competition. That's not bad.

 

I don't see how anyone can complain about the Twins losing Rodriguez, he was on absolutely nobody's radar.  He has pitched better in a small sample size in SF than in any level in the minor leagues. 

 

What is with the skepticism with Cave?  Was the Granite fanfare just because he was a home grown player?  Cave looks like a much more complete player at the same age but is essentially already cast off.  The strikeouts are concerning but I am honestly surprised at the disdain for him in this thread. 

[Twins33]

Yeah, why give them credit for continued excellence. The 2017 draft appears strong, the 2017/18 off season was the most active ever and we picked up a bunch of board scapegoats. TD can never have enough scapegoats. The 2018 trade deadline will make us into a top 5 farm system. My personal favorite was the Hughes trade. The board was screaming to DFA Hughes and we saved 7.25M to use in free agency this off season by including a measly 2nd round pick.

 

The Twins payroll was 128 or so this year. The Twins would have to be at 135M to spend that extra Hughes money. If they don't go that high, all it did was save the Pohlad's money (or hopefully gives them money flexibility at next years trade deadline). They've also said they don't bank money (what's saved this year isn't put towards next years available money).

 

I think the Twins may end up short of last years attendance levels by about 70K, so revenue will probably be slightly down. And who knows if the Pohlad's will keep allowing them to spend like this. They should but you never know.

 

I think people have said that they'd have to spend something like at least 50 million to even use that extra Hughes money. So they'd have to sign at least one of Harper, Machado or Kershaw. I don't see it happening but it would be great.

[howieramone2]

 

JT hurt again....hopefully it is minor....

He's missed almost 3 complete years already. Burdi is not far behind. The new regime is not going to waste a lot of time with those who do not have a track record of being healthy. I question how much patience they will show with Bard, Jay, and the ever popular, board favorite Trevor May.

Edited August 22, 2018 by howieramone2

[Tomj14]

 

his results, for one. Go take a look at his AA numbers in his final season in AA with us. I liked Rodriguez personally, but he was at best a bubble candidate on the 40 man at that point. His ERA was barely under 4. His K/9 rate was under 8. He was also 25 in AA. He wasn't taken in Rule V either, so everyone else 'missed' it too. He left as a FA to a place where he had less competition. That's not bad.

So are you saying that the Giants were able to take a bubble candidate from the Twins and within a year turn him into a viable major league starting pitcher and the Twins couldn't do that (yet) with their top prospects?

The Giants must have seen something in him beyond numbers to stick him directly into AAA, because IMO the Twins would have sent him back to AA.

Edited August 22, 2018 by Tomj14

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's missed almost 3 complete years already. Burdi is not far behind. The new regime is not going to waste a lot of time with those who do not have a track record of being healthy. I question how much patience they with show with Bard, Jay, and the ever popular, board favorite Trevor May.

 

I was just trying to show the young man some sympathy......