Article: Twins Select Trevor Larnach in the First Round of the 2018 Draft

[DocBauer]

A thought came to me tonight when discussing tonight's draft, as well as reflecting on past Twins picks in this spot as stated to begin the article, a few years back the Twins spent the 30th pick on Levi Michael, SS, from North Carolina. The Twins were rather desperate at the time to find a quality middle infielder or two. Despite being a late 1st round pick, IIRC, Michael was seen as not only a safe pick, but a pretty good one, from a powerhouse program playing the college World Series. He had a fine career for a big program in a major conference and didn't track as anything special, but just a fine all around player/prospect. Maybe even a bit of a steal at the 30th spot.

 

You just never know, do you?

[h2oface]

Who needs pitching, anyway.

[beckmt]

Who knows which outfielders will still be here long term by the time he gets here.  I am guessing 2021 at the eariest. Sano (if he is here long term) or Rooker will be 1B and DH.  Only if they retain all the outfielders will he have a problem with a spot (if he makes it).  

I might have rolled the dice with a pitcher, but that is much riskier and Twins have a number of pitchers knocking on the door now.

[Old Twins Cap]

Looks big.  How tall is he?   Don't see any information anywhere on size and weight.

 

Aaron Judg-ish?

[Thrylos]

 

Looks big.  How tall is he?   Don't see any information anywhere on size and weight.

 

Aaron Judg-ish?

 

6-4, 213 as listed at the Oregon State site.  

[Doctor Wu]

On the surface, or at least from my hackneyed perspective, Larnach looks like a rather underwhelming pick, one that doesn't move the needle either way for me. Lots of comparisons to Rooker, so I'm not sure what he offers that the Twins are looking for. Then again, as others have noted, the draft is indeed a crapshoot, so who really knows how these players will pan out over the next few years. All we can hope is that, as they did last year, the front office did their homework and targeted some players with true tools and potential.

[Thrylos]

The only problem I have with this pick is that he is yet another LH OF.  With Rosario and Kepler in the bigs hopefully for a while, and Kirilloff ready in about 3 seasons (similar ETA with Larnach,) I really do not see a need for yet another lefty corner OF.

 

Starting LHPs on the other hand...

[rdehring]

Never heard of this kid before last night.  Doesn't mean much as I hadn't heard of 99% of the players who will be drafted.

 

But as I read about him this morning I began to wonder.  Could he turn into a player similar to Michael Cuddyer?  Good average with reasonable power.  Defensively, not that great, but he got better by putting in a lot of work over the years.  Should this be the case, it would turn out to be a great pick!

[Tom Froemming]

 

The only problem I have with this pick is that he is yet another LH OF.  With Rosario and Kepler in the bigs hopefully for a while, and Kirilloff ready in about 3 seasons (similar ETA with Larnach,) I really do not see a need for yet another lefty corner OF.

 

Starting LHPs on the other hand...

Can always trade an OF for a P, I guess? Not sure that's the best business model, but maybe this front office is more confident in their ability to evaluate pitching and thinks they can find some hidden gems here on Day 2?

 

Question marks intentional, I'm just throwing out theories here. 

[Thrylos]

 

Can always trade an OF for a P, I guess? Not sure that's the best business model, but maybe this front office is more confident in their ability to evaluate pitching and thinks they can find some hidden gems here on Day 2?

 

Question marks intentional, I'm just throwing out theories here. 

 

I think that the best bet for a Day 2 hidden gem of a pitcher is a high school pitcher.  The problem with high school pitchers is that they rarely have developed their secondary pitches yet (if they did they would not be on the board) and that selections depend on subjective scout projections.  They are a crapshoot even at day one (paging Mr. Stewart)

 

Yeah, can always trade an OF for a pitcher; however why not pick one at the first place?  Also, and I know it is a partially different Front Office, but the Twins do not have a good record on the OF for P trades (and P for OF as well.)

Edited June 5, 2018 by Thrylos

[slash129]

A warm welcome to Trevor and Ryan. I hope both are signed quickly, stay healthy and start their seasoning as they journey to hopeful MLB debuts in the future.  I don't closely follow high school or college baseball, so I'll stay away from armchair quarterbacking the FO.  They have likely put thousands of hours into scouting, analytics and evaluations.  All we have are reports from Mayo and Co., and they are basically the equivalent of clowns selling balloons at the carnival.

[USAFChief]

I have little basis for this, or any other draft opinion, but...I could not be more underwhelmed with these two picks. 

 

A corner outfielder who was a "fast riser" -- only one season of quality production in college. He can't move down the defensive spectrum much if needed. 

 

And a college catcher with defensive questions.

 

Both a bit of a reach, IMO.

 

 

[jmlease1]

Evaluating picks outside of the top 4-5 guys in a baseball draft is so damn hard. This guys seems fine? Hit like crazy this year playing for a top program against good competition, so that's good. Sounds like they think he still has upside as a hitter based on their scouting?

 

I dunno. Would have liked him to show some better defensive skills, because odds aren't great that he's going to get stronger in that area, but if his hit tool is good enough, it should be a high floor pick.

 

If this was "best signable player available" at 20...I'm ok with it. so far this management team has earned a little slack on drafting after last year's apparently excellent choices.

[Miles Tones]

Hate both picks. Dumped the comp pick and lost the 3rd rounder by signing Lynn. That means the earliest possible chance to draft a pitcher is the 4th round. Considering the Twins' pitching has been the laughingstock of the league for a decade, you'd think we would prioritize it. Meanwhile we add yet another corner outfielder to a team whose outfielders are all in their early to mid - twenties. Hugely disappointed. Meanwhile, the Royals drafted their 2021 rotation in one night.

[NapoleonComplex]

By many publications, Larnach was pretty much BPA at #20. Fangraphs listed him in their top 15. He may not be a 5-tool player, but he still has plenty of potential. This isn't the NBA or NFL draft. It takes years to see the true success of most drafts. Keep in mind, Mike Trout was drafted #25 in 2009, while Mark Appel was drafted out of HS in 2009, then #8 in 2012 and #1 in 2013. 

 

It's best not to take too strong a stance, positive or negative the day after a pick is made.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

By many publications, Larnach was pretty much BPA at #20. Fangraphs listed him in their top 15. He may not be a 5-tool player, but he still has plenty of potential. This isn't the NBA or NFL draft. It takes years to see the true success of most drafts. Keep in mind, Mike Trout was drafted #25 in 2009, while Mark Appel was drafted out of HS in 2009, then #8 in 2012 and #1 in 2013. 

 

It's best not to take too strong a stance, positive or negative the day after a pick is made.

Yeah, I agree. He's a solid pick. I wanted a pitcher but his bat could be special. The catcher is a bit puzzling but the fangraphs guys are higher on him so .... maybe?

[nicksaviking]

 

Can always trade an OF for a P, I guess? Not sure that's the best business model, but maybe this front office is more confident in their ability to evaluate pitching and thinks they can find some hidden gems here on Day 2?

 

Question marks intentional, I'm just throwing out theories here. 

 

Outfield depth might have been the key to the Twins sustained run early this century. Hunter anchored CF, but they had prospects ranging from elite to pretty dang good in Cuddyer, Jones, Garbe, Kubel, Rabe, Restovich, Ryan, Kielty, Ford, Buchanon and Mohr. They flipped some for need (SS Jason Bartlet, lead off hitter Shannon Stewart) but probably could have swung more deals had they wanted to.

[Thrylos]

 

Outfield depth might have been the key to the Twins sustained run early this century. Hunter anchored CF, but they had prospects ranging from elite to pretty dang good in Cuddyer, Jones, Garbe, Kubel, Rabe, Restovich, Ryan, Kielty, Ford, Buchanon and Mohr. They flipped some for the need (SS Jason Bartlet, lead off hitter Shannon Stewart) but probably could have swung more deals had they wanted to.

 

None of those were elite (i.e. top 10) prospects, and Cuddyer, the best of the bunch, was never an OF as a prospect.  

[d-mac]

 

I wanted a pitcher and there were several good ones there. I guess they feel they can find quality guys later on in the draft. I kind of hate the one dimensional power guys who can't run or play defense in the first round. Hope they make me eat my words

 

I kind of hate one dimensional players who can't hit in the first round. Athletes that can't hit can be found in any round. 

[d-mac]

Can't say I've had any time this year to follow the draft- probably the first since 2010 that I've been tuned out. But I like what I see so far from Larnach. Hits for average, power, draws walks- all at a top tier college conference. Very pretty swing on video. And it sounds like he'll hold his own in the field.

 

Likely underslot too. Use that money to nab a number of top 200 draft prospects with our limited number of picks.

[d-mac]

 

Who needs pitching, anyway.

TINSTAAPP

[Mike Sixel]

 

TINSTAAPP

 

I just don't agree with this, so much......

[d-mac]

FWIW, fangraphs says Larnach's exit velo is ELITE, and he's improved his launch angle. Where do I sign up?

[d-mac]

 

I just don't agree with this, so much......

 

That acronym exists for a reason. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

That acronym exists for a reason. 

 

It's still wrong....clearly there are good pitching prospects.....

[h2oface]

 

That acronym exists for a reason. 

Only exists because the creator thought himself cute, and then people repeat it.

 

Who needs prospects, anyway. We need MLB pitchers. Hence, I could care less about the 3rd round and comp pick. Who needs another top pick to follow forever in the minors and then they are released or traded or retire a career minor leaguer. Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay and Wheeler and Levi Micheal come to mind. Buxton is still trying to hit MLB pitching consistenly. I can't wait until all picks can be traded. It is way overdue.

 

 

Edited June 5, 2018 by h2oface

[Bob Sacamento]

Going back and listening to some pre-draft coverage podcasts, I did run across where Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen say that Trevor Larnach could see a huge power explosion once a team alters his swing to add more launch angle.

[Doctor Wu]

Seeing the name Johnny Ard (from 1988) in the first paragraph brought back a lot of memories. I saw him pitch for Orlando when he was in the minors. Such high hopes for that kid, but yet another "hot" prospect who fizzled out and never made the big leagues. Just never can tell what will end up happening with these high school players, especially the pitchers.

[John Kelsey]

He's crushing the ball in the CWS right now. 

[jokin]

 

He's crushing the ball in the CWS right now. 

 

He's been very impressive at the plate throughout the CWS. He's hitting absolute ropes to all fields. Gap power, too. After a sharp groundball single almost took the SS's head off, the announcers were LOLing that even his ground balls are dangerous missiles.

 

No HRs in the CWS. The announcers surmised today that he's temporarily reverted to his previous season level swing batting form and eschewing the launch angle power swing.

Edited June 23, 2018 by jokin