Article: End of the Road for Phil Hughes and the Twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think you have to look at this through the lens of the Twins hoping to acquire an ace (or ace lite) pitcher that was not in their system (best bets then were May and Myers, not optimal ace candidates). At that point, taking the gamble of 2/16 to 5/58 makes sense. If he repeats it, he's going to free agency and he's out of your price range. If he doesn't then you're not on the hook for that much given what a #4 starter costs.

 

The Twins just hit the worst case scenario - major injuries (and not TJ, which would be just a year most likely) that made him completely ineffective. It was a bad outcome but I get the gamble. The Twins had no one near an ace and no other reasonable way to get one. Very little risk for a lot of gain.

I don't think the Twins were that fixated on an "ace", though -- they just needed competent SP. Essentially the same brain trust that extended Hughes also traded Johan for Gomez when we were contenders (and Garza for Young, when Garza still had some ace potential), and didn't extend Liriano after his ace-lite season in 2010 when we were also contenders and he had only 2 years control left.

 

I suspect Hughes was a lot like Perkins in that he was willing to sign deals forgoing top-end cash to stay here, and the Twins couldn't help themselves. Not that they were bad deals, as I have said. But they seemed to be driven as much by personality as by projections or planning.

Edited May 22, 2018 by spycake

[cmoss84]

 

Bold prediction: Phil Hughes will pitch in a major league baseball game against the Minnesota Twins. 

I'd be shocked if he pitches again, but I hope I'm wrong. Seems like he did everything in his power to make a comeback. 

 

However, I could see Phil as a pitching coach. Seems to be very passionate about the game and very personable. He had great stuff in his first years and had to "learn how to pitch" in the last few years, so he might be able to relate to majority of pitchers. 

[TFRazor]

 

And get a no-hitter.

And probably keep us from the playoffs

[Vanimal46]

Definitely a candidate for the Bill James Theorem of Pitcher Recycling: Roughly one out of every ten pitchers in the majors was left for dead at some point or another in their career.

And one out of a million pitchers is Bartolo Colon... Who will never be left for dead and will pitch until he's 75.

[IndianaTwin]

 

I'll echo what most posters have said in various ways: I hope Mr. Hughes latches on somewhere and wins Comeback Player of the Year.

 

Concur. 

 

Though since we're talking about hopes, I hope it's in the National League.

[MN_ExPat]

 

You respect an opinion you assigned him, not one he ever expressed. He's clearly talking Hughes the Player and not Hughes the Human.

Once again, not my point.   It was merely to point out that I respect his opinions and viewpoints on baseball overall, even if I do not agree with them at times.   If Mike wishes to take umbrage over that, so be it.   I will happily discuss that with him at a date and time of his choosing (and I hope you don't take it personally) not you.

[TFRazor]

First I want to say that while I feel this was a necessary move on the teams part and that I'm glad they made it, I also want to say that I'm sorry to see Phil go. One thing we can't say about Hughes is that he didn't do his best to help the team win. It can't be easy going out there knowing that you're not as good as you used to be but to his credit I don't remember one report or even a rumor that he was not putting in 100% or that he was a bad teammate. He was going out there every time and busting his butt for his team even if the results just weren't what you would want them to be. I wish Phil the best of luck with whatever he does in the future both in baseball and just life in general.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Beware the insurance trolls!

 

This DFA almost certainly puts to rest the idea that the Twins could expect to recoup any meaningful portion of Hughes's salary through insurance.

Seems not unlikely that the Twins were no longer able to recoup any of his salary via insurance.

 

Per the reference, not sure validity but it’s written wel... Policies generally have 3 year periods, not necessarily the whole contract. If this is the case, if an insurance policy was taken out on Hughes’ contract, it would have come due by now. After two TOS surgeries no way is any insurer covering him further.

 

https://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/understanding-the-business-of-baseball-insurance-on-player-contracts.html/

Edited May 22, 2018 by Sconnie

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't think the Twins were that fixated on an "ace", though -- they just needed competent SP. Essentially the same brain trust that extended Hughes also traded Johan for Gomez when we were contenders (and Garza for Young, when Garza still had some ace potential), and didn't extend Liriano after his ace-lite season in 2010 when we were also contenders and he had only 2 years control left.

I suspect Hughes was a lot like Perkins in that he was willing to sign deals forgoing top-end cash to stay here, and the Twins couldn't help themselves. Not that they were bad deals, as I have said. But they seemed to be driven as much by personality as by projections or planning.

 

Those Johan and Liriano decisions were made in the Metrodome context (though Liriano should have been made with Target Field in mind). Johan was just going to be too expensive and Liriano was coming off injury and the Twins were far too risk-averse to make the smart move there.

 

Garza was a dumb trade but the Twins felt strong in starting pitching (ha!) and were very light in the outfield. Tough to defend that one though (except to say that Garza was more like a #2 lite than an ace).

[ThejacKmp]

 

Once again, not my point.   It was merely to point out that I respect his opinions and viewpoints on baseball overall, even if I do not agree with them at times.   If Mike wishes to take umbrage over that, so be it.   I will happily discuss that with him at a date and time of his choosing (and I hope you don't take it personally) not you.

 

Not taking it personally. And I think when you post on a board and you mischaracterize someone's stance that badly and create that big of a strawman argument, others might jump in. Because we know Mike and we know that he's not the kind of guy who wouldn't pee on Hughes to put out the fire. Probably.

[h2oface]

 

 

......Hope that someone dos take a flyer on Mr. Hughes and lets him work yo see if he can comeback. It won't cost them anymore than the major league minimum for this sesson and next...so expect there to be some lucky team out there with a spare roster slot.

 

I really can't see any team starting Hughes, if he doesn't just retire, in the show. That would be somewhat foolish of them, but I guess it could happen. I suspect wherever and if ever he lands, it will be to start in AAA and give the confidence to the signing team he is able to perform. He could actually do that here, too, perhaps, if offered, which isn't really known that will happen. It might really be up to him at this point. He might really have his best shot at staying in the show right here, and getting it back together at Rochester. But I really hope that doesn't happen.

 

Or, he could take a break, take a rest and longer to prepare, and then have a showcase toward the last half/third of the year, and see if he can be a force, or even just a replacement level option for some needy team.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

I'll swallow my pride for a lot less than $5,000,000...but then I'm not Lance Lynn.

I am trying to think what I wouldn't swallow for $5M.

[h2oface]

 

...... One thing we can't say about Hughes is that he didn't do his best to help the team win. It can't be easy going out there knowing that you're not as good as you used to be but to his credit I don't remember one report or even a rumor that he was not putting in 100% or that he was a bad teammate. He was going out there every time and busting his butt for his team even if the results just weren't what you would want them to be. I wish Phil the best of luck with whatever he does in the future both in baseball and just life in general.

 

Or..... "his team" could actually be for his own satisfaction and self expectations, and not wanting to give up. And that deserves just as much respect. Do you think it would have mattered what team, or any team that he was under contract for? I would think it was just as much a hope that he could make it back, and to prove it to himself, or fail trying. I wonder if, just because you try your best, that the motive is to help your team, and not to prove to oneself that you tried your best, even if it wasn't helping your team, and you knew it. There comes a time that, if one has team first, that the best help for that team is to not take the mound, to walk away. That is not as romantic a thought, but it might be more truthful. It is hard to face the end. Probably the toughest thing every player has to face.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seems not unlikely that the Twins were no longer able to recoup any of his salary via insurance.

 

Per the reference, not sure validity but it’s written wel... Policies generally have 3 year periods, not necessarily the whole contract. If this is the case, if an insurance policy was taken out on Hughes’ contract, it would have come due by now. After two TOS surgeries no way is any insurer covering him further.

 

https://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/understanding-the-business-of-baseball-insurance-on-player-contracts.html/

Hughes missed the first half of 2011 with shoulder issues, so it's not even clear they would have been able to get a policy to cover that in the first place. I suspect it would have been reported over the past few years if it was applicable (I remember media reports when Joe Nathan's contract insurance kicked in, as well as Ricky Nolasco's).

[Mr. Brooks]

I really can't see any team starting Hughes, if he doesn't just retire, in the show. That would be somewhat foolish of them, but I guess it could happen. I suspect wherever and if ever he lands, it will be to start in AAA and give the confidence to the signing team he is able to perform. He could actually do that here, too, perhaps, if offered, which isn't really known that will happen. It might really be up to him at this point. He might really have his best shot at staying in the show right here, and getting it back together at Rochester. But I really hope that doesn't happen.

 

Or, he could take a break, take a rest and longer to prepare, and then have a showcase toward the last half/third of the year, and see if he can be a force, or even just a replacement level option for some needy team.

I actually think a tanking team probably will start him in the majors.

At the league minimum, on a tanking team, it's a no-lose situation.

If he's bad, it helps them get a higher draft pick. If he's good, they can flip him at the deadline.

Edited May 23, 2018 by Mr. Brooks

[MN_ExPat]

 

 And I think when you post on a board and you mischaracterize someone's stance that badly and create that big of a strawman argument,

 

Talk about misinterpreting someone.   So since we find ourselves at an impasse, I will finish this and say to you, Good Day Sir.   I wish you well.

[ashbury]

Not taking it personally. And I think when you post on a board and you mischaracterize someone's stance that badly and create that big of a strawman argument, others might jump in. Because we know Mike and we know that he's not the kind of guy who wouldn't pee on Hughes to put out the fire. Probably.

Talk about misinterpreting someone.   So since we find ourselves at an impasse, I will finish this and say to you, Good Day Sir.   I wish you well.

From a site moderation standpoint, it would be well for this round of bickering to end here.

[Mike Sixel]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/phil-hughes-and-the-sobering-history-of-thoracic-outlet-injuries/

[Vanimal46]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/phil-hughes-and-the-sobering-history-of-thoracic-outlet-injuries/

Good read thanks for sharing. It's probably best just to avoid players with this injury until there's a better success rate like TJS these days...

 

The general consensus is there's a drop in performance post surgery. And no rhyme or reason why a select few bounce back like Jaime Garcia.

 

Overall it sounds like an unnecessary headache and disappointment.