Twins make offer for Chris Archer

[jimmer]

bWAR uses FIP which makes your point circular.

bWAR doesnt use FIP, fWAR does. bWAR uses runs allowed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Trade for Gausman or Degrom or Odorizzi or sign Cobb or bring up our young arms.

deGrom is going to be at least as costly in trade as Archer, right? And Gausman and especially Odorizzi don't really help at the top of the rotation. Cobb might not either, but I'm not sure we have another choice at this point.

[Doomtints]

 

bWAR doesnt use FIP, fWAR does

 

I know. I already corrected my typo. See above.

[amjgt]

 

making his AL rankings even better. And doing so while pitching in the AL East and pitching 200 or more innings

 

5th, 2nd, 4th, the last 3 years.

[amjgt]

 

fWAR uses FIP which makes your point circular.

 

We are quoting predictive statistics. You are quoting results based statistics.

 

I don't care what Archers results were last year. I care what his actions indicate for his future results. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We had these types of debates over Ricky Nolasco, everyone in Twins territory was convinced he was a steal, all based on bloated numbers on Fangraphs.

Chris Archer and Ricky Nolasco are nothing alike.

 

Nolasco ERA: 4.56

Nolasco FIP: 3.97

Difference: -0.59

 

Archer ERA: 3.63

Archer FIP: 3.45

Difference: -0.18

 

You're focusing on Archer's 2017 ERA/FIP difference, the largest of his career...

 

But that's the point of FIP.

 

Given enough innings, ERA and FIP should become interchangeable with one another in most pitchers (outliers like Nolasco being the exceptions) because ERA stabilizes in front of different defenses, free agency/trade player movement, and the removal of SSS luck.

 

But in smaller sample sizes, FIP exists for the very reason of pointing out expected performance versus "real" performance, which can be influenced by all those things listed above.

 

And if you look at Archer's past four seasons, which year jumps out at you as being the aberration?

 

Year: ERA / FIP

2014: 3.33 / 3.39

2015: 3.23 / 2.90

2016: 4.02 / 3.81

2017: 4.07 / 3.40

[Oxtung]

 

[ERA] is? Perhaps if you delete 90% of what I wrote, sure.

 

Yes, all your "metrics" relate back to ERA (or runs allowed which is basically the same thing).

 

ERA? Yup.

ERA+? Yup.

bWAR? Yup.

 

So again, as amgjt and Brock pointed out, ERA is not a good predictor of future ERA.

[jimmer]

Yes, all your "metrics" relate back to ERA (or runs allowed which is basically the same thing).

 

ERA? Yup.

ERA+? Yup.

bWAR? Yup.

 

So again, as amgjt and Brock pointed out, ERA is not a good predictor of future ERA.

he also pointed out losses over the last three seasons just after saying looking at his last three years cumulative fWAR ranking was ridiculous. Cause its okay to look at combined last three years if the info is supposedly bad, apparently.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

https://twitter.com/MillerStrib/status/963482165563543559

Why did they fire Ryan, if nothing is going to change?

[gunnarthor]

 

deGrom is going to be at least as costly in trade as Archer, right? And Gausman and especially Odorizzi don't really help at the top of the rotation. Cobb might not either, but I'm not sure we have another choice at this point.

I dunno. Put Gausman in TF and and our OF and he might be pretty good.

[gunnarthor]

 

Why did they fire Ryan, if nothing is going to change?

Narrative. It might also be that smart baseball people think that the path the Ryan was going down was the correct one. These guys might do things slightly differently (they seemed to push DL trips more) but the general plan is probably the same as long as they have significant payroll constraints.  

The Twins were a playoff team last year and we should expect Berrios to be better and the bullpen clearly is. Gonsalves and Romero are close to helping now. Maybe they don't see Archer as importantly as some posters do.

[Vanimal46]

https://twitter.com/MillerStrib/status/963482165563543559

Tampa doesn't want to trade their best pitcher on a ridiculously team friendly contract? You don't say.

[Oxtung]

 

Tampa doesn't want to trade their best pitcher on a ridiculously team friendly contract? You don't say.

 

Which is why Darvish made SOOOOO much sense..... 

[Mike Sixel]

Narrative. It might also be that smart baseball people think that the path the Ryan was going down was the correct one. These guys might do things slightly differently (they seemed to push DL trips more) but the general plan is probably the same as long as they have significant payroll constraints.

The Twins were a playoff team last year and we should expect Berrios to be better and the bullpen clearly is. Gonsalves and Romero are close to helping now. Maybe they don't see Archer as importantly as some posters do.

The quote want wasn't about Archer, it was about not trading prospects. So, if true, they will never really go all in.

[twinssporto]

 

Depressing. 

[gunnarthor]

 

The quote want wasn't about Archer, it was about not trading prospects. So, if true, they will never really go all in.

Maybe. Maybe they think this isn't the time to go all-in. I dunno. I'm not thrilled with this FO trading away Kintzler last year so I'm not the best judge of how they judge the talent on the roster. I figured this offseason would show us a lot more about how the FO will work. I'll stand by that but it's getting pretty close to the end.

[FormerMinnasotan]

https://twitter.com/MillerStrib/status/963482165563543559

So in other words the Twins will do absolutely nothing to improve their rotation (which looked below average with a healthy Santana and Berrios)? How can the FO ever be taken seriously if they don’t actively fix the problems on this team? Look I understand they might believe Gonsalves and Romero aren’t too far off to contribute to the rotation, even if (when) they do their contributions this year are at best as a #5 starter. It will take a yr or 2 before we see the promise of Gonsalves and Romero be fulfilled, it’s just how it is. In the mean time we need to fill 1 rotation spot for the entire yr and have someone (or a couple pitchers) to take the place of Santana while he is on the DL. I mean how long is the rebuild going to be? 10-20 years? I mean building the new stadium was to give them a boost to be more “competitive” and move them into the status as a “mid market” team. While payroll has increased the Twins still act as a “small market” team so over concerned over paying too much for a player it looks like they don’t care to “go for it all” and at least attempt to win a World Series.

[Danchat]

 

Sounds like they'd rather go after Cobb or Lynn instead of giving up a king's ransom for Archer. The Rays know the Twins are desperate for starting pitching and are in no rush to trade Archer, so they can set the price sky high. Sounds to me like that trade won't be feasible unless they're willing to give up a large chunk of the farm.

[Danchat]

 

So in other words the Twins will do absolutely nothing to improve their rotation (which looked below average with a healthy Santana and Berrios)? How can the FO ever be taken seriously if they don’t actively fix the problems on this team? Look I understand they might believe Gonsalves and Romero aren’t too far off to contribute to the rotation, even if (when) they do their contributions this year are at best as a #5 starter. It will take a yr or 2 before we see the promise of Gonsalves and Romero be fulfilled, it’s just how it is. In the mean time we need to fill 1 rotation spot for the entire yr and have someone (or a couple pitchers) to take the place of Santana while he is on the DL. I mean how long is the rebuild going to be? 10-20 years? I mean building the new stadium was to give them a boost to be more “competitive” and move them into the status as a “mid market” team. While payroll has increased the Twins still act as a “small market” team so over concerned over paying too much for a player it looks like they don’t care to “go for it all” and at least attempt to win a World Series.

So in other words, the Twins are going to pursue some of the remaining free agents out there instead of trading a king's ransom for Archer or other trade venues. At what part of the tweet suggested that the Twins were just going to give up on the rotation and leave it as it is?  I'm frustrated at the lack of progress in the rotation too but I'm certain there will be at least one addition. They know the rotation is a problem and all reports suggest that they're actively trying to solve it.

[laloesch]

Twins Sign Chris Heisey (OF) 33 to a minor league contract.  Perhaps a backup option in case Kepler gets traded?

[Mike Sixel]

Twins Sign Chris Heisey (OF) 33 to a minor league contract. Perhaps a backup option in case Kepler gets traded?

Why not sign an, I don't know, MLB player? Bringing in a scrub to RF isn't going to make the team better.

[gunnarthor]

 

Twins Sign Chris Heisey (OF) 33 to a minor league contract.  Perhaps a backup option in case Kepler gets traded?

I'd assume he's just AAA depth. Grossman is a better option.

[laloesch]

 

I'd assume he's just AAA depth. Grossman is a better option.

 

I like your explanation better.  At least its positive and not negative.

[redstorm]

Rhett Bollingers tweet:

 

"Thad Levine on trading for pitching: "The prospect of kind of weakening one part of your team to strengthen another is not appealing."

 

Concerning to me, it makes it sound like they're not interested in trading Kepler as part of a package for Archer, would love to hear how they plan to improve the rotation otherwise. Especially considering they passed on Darvish...

[laloesch]

 

Rhett Bollingers tweet:

 

"Thad Levine on trading for pitching: "The prospect of kind of weakening one part of your team to strengthen another is not appealing."

 

Concerning to me, it makes it sound like they're not interested in trading Kepler as part of a package for Archer, would love to hear how they plan to improve the rotation otherwise. Especially considering they passed on Darvish...

 

I don't think they passed on Darvish but they were outbid by the Cubs who were likely one of Darvish's favorites from the beginning.  But your right it is concerning and confusing.  I see conflicting message here about trading which they seemed much more open to a few weeks / months ago.  Ya gotta give up something to get something when trading.  If not then SIGN Cobb or Lynn.  Simple as that.

[Jham]

Chris Archer and Ricky Nolasco are nothing alike.

 

Nolasco ERA: 4.56

Nolasco FIP: 3.97

Difference: -0.59

 

Archer ERA: 3.63

Archer FIP: 3.45

Difference: -0.18

 

You're focusing on Archer's 2017 ERA/FIP difference, the largest of his career...

 

But that's the point of FIP.

 

Given enough innings, ERA and FIP should become interchangeable with one another in most pitchers (outliers like Nolasco being the exceptions) because ERA stabilizes in front of different defenses, free agency/trade player movement, and the removal of SSS luck.

 

But in smaller sample sizes, FIP exists for the very reason of pointing out expected performance versus "real" performance, which can be influenced by all those things listed above.

 

And if you look at Archer's past four seasons, which year jumps out at you as being the aberration?

 

Year: ERA / FIP

2014: 3.33 / 3.39

2015: 3.23 / 2.90

2016: 4.02 / 3.81

2017: 4.07 / 3.40

The first two years he gave up fewer HR than expected. The last 2 he gave up more than expected. That explains the variation in my mind and can be interpreted multiple ways.

 

His GB% dropped by 4-5% last year and consequently his babip against went up 30 points. His k rate actually increased.

 

It's an odd mix of stats to be honest. The k% indicates no loss of prowess. The gb% and hr indicate a slight slip. No wonder we have arguments. I think it's more likely the gb% is an aberration over the k% remaining high, so trust the xfip numbers in this case. But I can see the argument that his numbers were saved by a high k% that his other numbers don't seem likely to sustain.

 

I'm a big fan of Archer. I think he's a beast in target field. Cy young candidate. But trading him makes absolutely no sense for Tampa. None. Not happening.

[twinssporto]

 

I'd assume he's just AAA depth. Grossman is a better option.

Thanks, was just getting ready to take a header out of my office window.

[NewClearHarley]

 

Why not sign an, I don't know, MLB player? Bringing in a scrub to RF isn't going to make the team better.

I'm going to guess that they still will nab a cheap right-handed OF bat - but Heisey makes sense as MiLB depth signing who could be a bench bat for the big club if needed - plus he has played all three OF positions which could help with our habit of watching Buxton getting hurt - especially if Granite gets dealt in one of these proposed trades.

[Danchat]

 

Rhett Bollingers tweet:

 

"Thad Levine on trading for pitching: "The prospect of kind of weakening one part of your team to strengthen another is not appealing."

 

Concerning to me, it makes it sound like they're not interested in trading Kepler as part of a package for Archer, would love to hear how they plan to improve the rotation otherwise. Especially considering they passed on Darvish...

My guess would be that they the Rays were probably asking about Lewis/Rooker/other top 10 prospects that the Twins didn't want to give up. If they are unwilling to trade Kepler as a base for the Archer trade, well, then an Archer trade is certainly not happening.