Twins Give Darvish a Formal Offer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If I'm the Rays, negotiations for Archer start at either Buxton, Berrios or Royce Lewis. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he's only due a grand total of $34.08 million over the next four seasons. They have very little incentive to trade him away unless they get an incredible deal.

I suspect negotiations begin and end with Lewis plus lots of other stuff.

 

Because if you trade Archer, you're rebuilding. And taking on Berrios (a little below Archer in performance but more control) is shuffling deck chairs. Taking on Buxton might be smart (any time you can take a positional player of that calibre, you do it) but then the pitching staff weakens so much that it's probably irrelevant to have Buxton at all.

 

So we loop back to Lewis plus other stuff.

[amjgt]

 

Kepler+Gordon+Littel—> Tampa Bay
Archer+Span—> Minnesota?

 

Even with the Span "poison pill" in there, it's still not enough for Archer, though I do like the idea of taking on Span's $12M this year and $4M buyout next year as a way of enticing the Rays to make a deal. I read an article yesterday that they are trying to trim payroll, i believe down to $70M

[Otto von Ballpark]

I keep reading this thread title as "Formal Burial"...

[amjgt]

 

I suspect negotiations begin and end with Lewis plus lots of other stuff.

 

Because if you trade Archer, you're rebuilding. And taking on Berrios (a little below Archer in performance but more control) is shuffling deck chairs. Taking on Buxton might be smart (any time you can take a positional player of that calibre, you do it) but then the pitching staff weakens so much that it's probably irrelevant to have Buxton at all.

 

So we loop back to Lewis plus other stuff.

 

That's what I suspect... and I only go that "All in" if I also sign Darvish.

[ahart10]

Let’s just send the whole farm to Tampa for Archer, Odorrizi, Colome, and our old friend DeLeon.

[TNTwinsFan]

Boy...I once thought the Twins had ample OF depth, but, after our starting 3 who is there? Grossman? Tyn...er, I mean Granite? Then who? Not one of the Outfielders in the Top 20 are ready to contribute to Kepler's level yet. If they trade Kepler for Archer or Odorizzi I think they should REALLY open things up and sign JD Martinez. That would actually solve quite a bit of the problems. JD's defense be damned.

 

A rotation of:

 

Darvish

Archer/Odorizzi

Berrios

Santana (when he returns)

Gibson

 

A lineup of:

 

C Castro

1B Mauer

2B Dozier

3B Sano/Escobar

SS Polanco

LF Rosario

CF Buxton

RF Martinez

DH Grossman/Vargas

 

That roster might just get the Twins to the 2nd round of the playoffs!

[rdehring]

 

ERA might be higher because of those hitters parks in the AL East. The ball seems to jump in Boston, Baltimore, & Toronto. Same part if you would look at his starts he may have had 1 or 2 starts where he got shelled & would make the ERA a little higher than it should be.

Can't you say the same about every pitcher?  Take away their bad games and their numbers/era looks pretty good!

[FormerMinnasotan]

Best pitchers in baseball? His ERA is that of a #3 pitcher. Who cares if he has high strikeouts. If we trade any of those guys for Archer, we are crazy.

Yeah, I don’t get the craze for Archer when 2 yrs ago he lost 19 games (with a 4.02 ERA), and was sub .500 again last year with an even higher ERA last year (4.09). His batting average against is higher than Jake Ordorizzi and so is his ERA. I guess I just want to know the appeal of Archer (minus the K’s). It should be worth noting that Ordorizzi has a k/9 rate around 8. To me looking at the entire stat line Ordorizzi actually looks better than Archer and we could give up less for a potentially better (and younger) pitcher.

[rdehring]

My fear is that everyone will be kicking themselves if they trade Kepler.  A year from now, he just may be untouchable.  My preference would be Sano, but that isn't a reality until he gets his off field problems behind him and confirms the leg isn't a problem.  And yes, I believe there is a possibility that Kepler will have a better career than Sano.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, I don’t get the craze for Archer when 2 yrs ago he lost 19 games

Hey, Jack Morris lost 18 the year before he took us to the WS!

 

I like Archer, but I agree that there are enough questions about his performance that he is an equal or greater risk than Darvish, all things considered.

[jimmer]

Hey, Jack Morris lost 18 the year before he took us to the WS!

 

I like Archer, but I agree that there are enough questions about his performance that he is an equal or greater risk than Darvish, all things considered.

but not due to his ERA.

[Mike Sixel]

If you want to use ERA for some reason....Archer is 38th in baseball in ERA if you combine the last two years......with over 400 innings pitched. That would be insanely valuable on a WC team.

[FormerMinnasotan]

If you want to use ERA for some reason....Archer is 38th in baseball in ERA if you combine the last two years......with over 400 innings pitched. That would be insanely valuable on a WC team.

I get it and if we got Archer in a trade i’d love it. But hearing we could get a potentially better pitcher over all for less excites me. I guess as an overall pitcher I view Odorizzi as better than Archer. Look at it this way Archer has a higher k rate, ok but Odorizzi has a lower ERA, and lower batting average against, and the lower batting average against is important as both give up the same amount of home runs. And Odorizzi has a pretty good k rate himself. I just feel we’d fleece Tampa better getting Odorizzi. But again if we can pull off getting Archer I won’t complain as at WORST he’d be our ace right now and helps shore up our staff.

[mazeville]

 

Boy...I once thought the Twins had ample OF depth, but, after our starting 3 who is there? Grossman? Tyn...er, I mean Granite? Then who? Not one of the Outfielders in the Top 20 are ready to contribute to Kepler's level yet. If they trade Kepler for Archer or Odorizzi I think they should REALLY open things up and sign JD Martinez. That would actually solve quite a bit of the problems. JD's defense be damned.

A rotation of:

Darvish
Archer/Odorizzi
Berrios
Santana (when he returns)
Gibson

A lineup of:

C Castro
1B Mauer
2B Dozier
3B Sano/Escobar
SS Polanco
LF Rosario
CF Buxton
RF Martinez
DH Grossman/Vargas

That roster might just get the Twins to the 2nd round of the playoffs!

 

I like your thinking.

 

I'd probably go for someone like Lance Lynn, rather than Darvish, if I got Archer and then tried to sign Martinez. Because Martinez AND Darvish is probably too much to ask. We are Twins fans, after all.

 

But Martinez would provide some nice Sano insurance while, once the big fella gets off his suspension, giving the Twins a one-two punch that would be awesome even if it isn't on par with New York's Judge-Stanton duo.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

..I am not saying that....I'm saying that defense and luck play a much larger role in ERA than we used to believe. Some believe that Archer would have better defense here, and if his luck changes, he is more of a 2 than a 3.

 

Oh, and a 3 is incredibly valuable....especially with that low pay. Way valuable.

I predict the better the pitcher, the luckier he becomes.

[Tuba]

Ughhhhhhh come on! Guys what if no free agent ever signs anywhere ever again?

[jimmer]

Odorizzi. 143 IP last year. 7.97 K and 3.83 BB per 9 IP. Had a ridiculous and likely unsustainable babip of .227. Had a FIP of 5.43 and an xFIP of 5.10. Had a fWAR of 0.1. He has gotten worse in each of his last two seasons in practically every meaningful way.

 

Hard pass.

 

And he isnt close to the pitcher Archer is.

[mazeville]

Me, every day for the last month:

 

* Wakes up *

 

* Checks Twitter, mlbtraderumors and Twins Daily to see if the Twins signed Darvish *

 

* Grumbles an obscenity before getting to work. *

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Do you get the feeling when Darvish is 90 years old, we'll still be waiting to find out who he's going to sign with?

 

As for the proposed trades, I could go with Kepler and Gordon for Odorizzi and Span. Do not trade Littel, Romero or Gonsalves. All three are needed for insurance this year.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do you get the feeling when Darvish is 90 years old, we'll still be waiting to find out who he's going to sign with?

 

As for the proposed trades, I could go with Kepler and Gordon for Odorizzi and Span. Do not trade Littel, Romero or Gonsalves. All three are needed for insurance this year.

 

0% chance I do that deal for Odorizzi. 

[jimmer]

Not sure the amount of swearing that would come out of my mouth if we traded Kepler by himself for Odorizzi, much less Kepler AND Gordon for Oddorizzi AND the honor of taking on Spans salary. I mean, I am a huge Span fan, but no way in any trade like that.

[GP830]

 

Not sure the amount of swearing that would come out of my mouth if we traded Kepler by himself for Odorizzi, much less Kepler AND Gordon for Oddorizzi AND the honor of taking on Spans salary. I mean, I am a huge Span fan, but no way in any trade like that.

What if TB adds Colome?

 

Kepler and Gordon

for

Odorizzi, Colome, and Span

[jimmer]

What if TB adds Colome?

 

Kepler and Gordon

for

Odorizzi, Colome, and Span

nope

[adorduan]

 

ERA might be higher because of those hitters parks in the AL East. The ball seems to jump in Boston, Baltimore, & Toronto. Same part if you would look at his starts he may have had 1 or 2 starts where he got shelled & would make the ERA a little higher than it should be.

You can make that argument for just about any pitcher.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Not really. This is actually the year that the Twins have prospects in AAA with some real potential and the reality is that any 10-30M signing probably isn't much better than Gibson or Mejia. Take care of the front of the rotation problem.

 

Not saying that I am against adding two pitchers like Archer/Darvish but one might be more than we can hope for.

 

All of the key FA pitchers are significantly better than Gibson, Mejia, and whoever the 5 is.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't have a problem with a Kepler for Archer package in some capacity.. especially if we could send off a couple of our AA/AAA high floor types to finish it off. Not sure I'd like Kepler for Ordozi though.  As for Darvish, get er done.

[laloesch]

 

I don't think that would be enough to get Archer. But if it was, I wouldn't even have to think about it before pulling the trigger, from the Twins side.

 

losing Rosario would be more painful than losing Kepler in my humble opinion.

[bird]

 

All of the key FA pitchers are significantly better than Gibson, Mejia, and whoever the 5 is.

 

I assume you'd agree the key FA pitchers are Arietta, Lynn, Cobb, and Darvish. On paper, they're all guys you'd probably bet on over Gibson, Mejia, May, Hughes, Slegers, Gonsalves, or Romero. I think I could be easily convinced to take a bet that says at least one of those seven is going to be better than at least one of those four. I can also see a possibility of one or more of those seven putting up numbers than aren't significantly worse than one or more of those four. That's why I feel good about our depth and feel good about the indications that we're not going to throw a stupid offer out there for one of them. I'm in the Darvish or bust camp because, I just get this sense that none of the other three are going to move the needle enough to cover the nut.

 

I'm also a little comforted by the fact that if they get to camp and Hughes, Mejia, or Gibson look shakey, there will still be a line of unemployed starters that they can sign at the last minute. The way I look at it, we need to have a couple of our young prospects emerge as reliable stalwarts. In 2018. My bets I guess are on Mejia and Romero.

[TheLeviathan]

Mike's post in fangraphs sort of dovetails into this one.  Klaw thinks it would cost Kepler, Gordon, and Romero for Archer.

 

I'd do that in a heart beat.  I wouldn't even blink and I'm a fan of Kepler.

 

Then you turn around, pony up for Darvish, and fish around in the market for Gomez, CarGo, or Melky Cabrera to fill RF.

 

I feel that is both a dramatic, immediate upgrade while not crippling the base of talent on the farm.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike's post in fangraphs sort of dovetails into this one.  Klaw thinks it would cost Kepler, Gordon, and Romero for Archer.

 

I'd do that in a heart beat.  I wouldn't even blink and I'm a fan of Kepler.

 

Then you turn around, pony up for Darvish, and fish around in the market for Gomez, CarGo, or Melky Cabrera to fill RF.

 

I feel that is both a dramatic, immediate upgrade while not crippling the base of talent on the farm.  

 

Given Wade, Granite, even Lewis and Rooker, and the availability of Gomez.....I'd do that trade also. 

 

I'd rather have Archer and Wade/Granite/Gomez as the RF, than Kepler and, um, ???. 

 

edit to add:

You could probably sign Gomez for 2 years, 17-20MM....and have Archer for his pay, and still afford to sign another SP from the Lynn/Cobb list, or hope/wait for ESAN to return. Also, Archer isn't old....and has averaged 200IP the last two years, with a better than median ERA among qualifiers.