Royce Lewis vs. 2017 Draftees Update Club

[Vanimal46]

The 2017 MLB Draft was a hot-button topic on this site last year. We all had our favorites, and most of us were indifferent on the Lewis pick at the time. I'm sure I'm not the only one who wants to keep tabs on the core 5 players being discussed at #1 overall. Now that it's PROSPECT TIME! throughout the industry, what better time than now to find out where these players rank! 
 

First, let's go back and read Twins Daily contributors pre-draft articles about Royce Lewis, Brendan McKay, Hunter Greene, Mackenzie Gore, and Kyle Wright. And our community's instant reaction upon the news of Lewis being drafted. 

 

Now that we've seen these guys play a few games... And it's the offseason, let's find out where they rank around the internet!

Lewis:    Fangraphs: 38 BA: 24 MLB.com: 20 BP: 27 Average Rank: 27.25

 

McKay:  Fangraphs: 22 BA: 39 MLB.com: 25 BP: 23 Average Rank: 27.25

 

Greene: Fangraphs: 42 BA: 29 MLB.com: 21 BP: 39 Average Rank: 32

 

Gore:     Fangraphs: 33 BA: 26 MLB.com: 19 BP: 29 Average Rank: 26.75

 

Wright:  Fangraphs: 26 BA: 34 MLB.com: 30 BP: 42 Average Rank: 33

 

Let's keep this thread updated over the year as this topic is only getting started!

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Let's keep this thread updated over the year as this topic is only getting started!

 

I assume you mean year as opposed to years because Lewis will be up and raking losing his prospect status by July!

[Mike Sixel]

I know over at FG, the Kiley likes McKay at first more than as a SP, and Eric L likes McCay better as a pitcher!

 

If you won't trade star minor league hitters for pitching, and you won't sign expensive FA to long term deals....you have to draft pitchers. Or, you know, just not have pitching. I'd still prefer one of the pitchers.

[Vanimal46]

McKay is going to be fascinating to follow, as the Rays are letting him pitch and play 1B/DH. It sounds like Greene is sticking to pitching and not playing SS this upcoming season?

[gunnarthor]

For whatever it's worth, I wanted Wright but am happy about how the draft itself worked out.

[Ben Noble]

I desperately wanted Gore at the time of the draft...and still wouldn't hesitate to swap Lewis for him. But at this point, I wouldn't consider trading Lewis straight-up for any of the other three.

[HrbekRules]

I was in the Gore camp at draft time.  Looking at this in a vacuum, Gore and Lewis are pretty close among national rankings, but the draft is not a vacuum.  With Lewis raking, and Enlow still in the picture as a good prospect, it makes the Lewis pick look even better, since without drafting Lewis, there wouldn't have been money available to lure Enlow away from LSU.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I was in the Gore camp at draft time.  Looking at this in a vacuum, Gore and Lewis are pretty close among national rankings, but the draft is not a vacuum.  With Lewis raking, and Enlow still in the picture as a good prospect, it makes the Lewis pick look even better, since without drafting Lewis, there wouldn't have been money available to lure Enlow away from LSU.

 

We don't know that one way or the other. The Twins could have spent more money, and stayed under any penalties. We also have no idea what Gore would have signed for with the Twins. I think the Twins are getting a lot of credit for a path they only sort of followed....This wasn't millions and millions, that was then spent on a guy that fell 20+ spots.

[2wins87]

There's an argument to be made that sticking with position players with the #1 pick is almost always a better strategy overall.

 

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen this up in their chat yesterday, pitching prospects that are ranked similarly in national rankings bring back less future value (in terms of WAR) on average.  This is basically just because of the high rate of injury for pitchers.

 

They got a guy with a lot of potential value in Lewis, and with probably a lower level of risk than Greene, Gore, and Wright.  And they were able to get some high upside guys with their next few picks. 

 

If there were a Strasburg in the draft and they picked Lewis over him it would have been a mistake.  But given that none of those guys was a Strasburg type, I doubt that this draft will look like that much of a mistake in the future, regardless of how much the other guys succeed.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's an argument to be made that sticking with position players with the #1 pick is almost always a better strategy overall.

 

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen this up in their chat yesterday, pitching prospects that are ranked similarly in national rankings bring back less future value (in terms of WAR) on average.  This is basically just because of the high rate of injury for pitchers.

 

They got a guy with a lot of potential value in Lewis, and with probably a lower level of risk than Greene, Gore, and Wright.  And they were able to get some high upside guys with their next few picks. 

 

If there were a Strasburg in the draft and they picked Lewis over him it would have been a mistake.  But given that none of those guys was a Strasburg type, I doubt that this draft will look like that much of a mistake in the future, regardless of how much the other guys succeed.

 

Yup, no issue there, as long as your team is willing to sign FA pitchers, or trade for them.....and I'm not arguing Lewis was a bad pick at all....just that at some point, you have to get pitching.

[Thrylos]

Hard to tell how things will end up, but after seeing them all talk to the press etc throughout the season, it seems to me that as far as personality, affect, and drive is concerned Royce Lewis is heads and shoulders above the rest of this bunch.  YMMV as far as that goes, because it is subjective.

[nicksaviking]

 

Hard to tell how things will end up, but after seeing them all talk to the press etc throughout the season, it seems to me that as far as personality, affect, and drive is concerned Royce Lewis is heads and shoulders above the rest of this bunch.  YMMV as far as that goes, because it is subjective.

 

It counts for something in my book, because so far this front office has made it clear that they want outspoken team-leader types. It would be best if the team didn't have to use free agency to get those qualities and it would be great if the players they got to fill those roles were actually standouts on the field as well as off.

[markos]

 

Yup, no issue there, as long as your team is willing to sign FA pitchers, or trade for them.....and I'm not arguing Lewis was a bad pick at all....just that at some point, you have to get pitching.

Or draft pitchers later in the draft. If you look back over the last 10 or so years, there frankly isn't much difference between the pitchers (particularly HS pitchers) drafted 1-15 as those drafted 30-45. 

[jimbo92107]

 

Hard to tell how things will end up, but after seeing them all talk to the press etc throughout the season, it seems to me that as far as personality, affect, and drive is concerned Royce Lewis is heads and shoulders above the rest of this bunch.  YMMV as far as that goes, because it is subjective.

This is exactly what I wanted to hear, so thanks for that. Now, if it turns out to be true...even better!

[Vanimal46]

New year, new rankings! Jo Addell moves ahead of the pack on the list.

 

[NapoleonComplex]

I really like Jo Adell. He's going to be an exciting player to watch. I still rank Lewis ahead of him because plus hitting shortstops are tougher to find ... and he's in my favorite ball clubs system. It's too bad we won't see both in the Southern League this season. It was fun to check out Midwest League box scores last season to see how each performed against the same teams.

[jkcarew]

 

New year, new rankings! Jo Addell moves ahead of the pack on the list.

Thanks for passing this on...

 

The Lewis pick still looks good against the alternatives, IMO. Gore or Wright are the other picks (among those that were being discussed for the no. 1 spot) that I'd still be OK with. At least at this very specific (still way too early) point in time, I'm glad we didn't take Greene or McKay.

 

With regard to Adell and Hiura, those rankings seem fair. Hiura is older and the bat is more advanced at this stage. Not sure Adell is going to be an every-day center-fielder in the majors...so there is that. But he's hit a better than Lewis so far, at the same age, and has been pushed even more aggressively having already had a taste of AA.

[bird]

 

Or draft pitchers later in the draft. If you look back over the last 10 or so years, there frankly isn't much difference between the pitchers (particularly HS pitchers) drafted 1-15 as those drafted 30-45. 

 

 

That's pretty much the take I have too. I'd guess that success for a pitcher is more dependent on the development value, for one thing, and therefore there are more high talent/undeveloped skills opportunities with pitchers down at #30-45.

 

I'd say any fan complaining about their team's pick among these five should be given a time out. It looks to be an impressive group, all off to decent starts.

[Vanimal46]

When I have more time and the lists become available I'll break down the players like I did in the OP. I'm interested to find out who they think is on the rise and who's free falling since this time last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Perhaps my memory needs a refresh, but I dont' really remember Adell being in the conversation at all, and I think Hiura was in a similar boat... Either way, I know I wasn't thrilled with the Lewis pick because it seemed cheap, but in all it looks like they did it right, not just getting what turned out to be one of the best prospects in the game right now, but using the lower signing amount to supplement it with a lot of high ceiling guys in Rooker, Leach, Enlow, etc. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Perhaps my memory needs a refresh, but I dont' really remember Adell being in the conversation at all, and I think Hiura was in a similar boat... Either way, I know I wasn't thrilled with the Lewis pick because it seemed cheap, but in all it looks like they did it right, not just getting what turned out to be one of the best prospects in the game right now, but using the lower signing amount to supplement it with a lot of high ceiling guys in Rooker, Leach, Enlow, etc.

I don't recall Adell being in the conversation nationally either. But, there was a regular poster here that badly wanted the Twins to take him.

[2wins87]

 

I don't recall Adell being in the conversation nationally either. But, there was a regular poster here that badly wanted the Twins to take him.

 

Can you imagine how much people would have railed on the pick if the Twins had taken Adell 1st overall?  Plenty of people were already upset about Lewis.

[drivlikejehu]

Adell at #2 is an outlier and I don't think very sensible. In a redraft, I'd take Lewis #1 without a doubt. Then Adell, then Gore. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't recall Adell being in the conversation nationally either. But, there was a regular poster here that badly wanted the Twins to take him.

That was me!

[Mr. Brooks]

That was me!

I was actually thinking of someone that's no longer present (can't recall his username), though I'm sure there were others.

[gunnarthor]

 

I was actually thinking of someone that's no longer present (can't recall his username), though I'm sure there were others.

Screw that guy. It was me!

[AZTwin]

I was actually thinking of someone that's no longer present (can't recall his username), though I'm sure there were others.

Bob? The cubs fan that followed the twins in ft Myers but then moved away?

[nicksaviking]

Screw that guy. It was me!

I was thinking of you, or the mystery poster. I’m going hunting later, it’s the internet so it’s there somewhere; last chance to come clean!

[gbg]

 

I don't recall Adell being in the conversation nationally either. But, there was a regular poster here that badly wanted the Twins to take him.

Since apparently I have nothing better to do on a Friday night, I looked through the original thread. Willihammer was the one who really wanted Adell.

 

And, man were people here ticked about the Twins getting Lewis...

[bird]

 

Screw that guy. It was me!

 

 

And you're STILL wrong.